More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Matt Cain thinks the Giants' 23rd placement in the BtB Power Rankings is crap! (He thinks the same about his FIP, xFIP, and tRA*.) But can there be justification for ranking a contending team so poorly? Read on...

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In our final installment of of the BtB Power Rankings posts of 2009 (aside from some possible methodological work I'll do this offseason), we look at the NL West.  Below, W% = true winning percentage, pW% = pythagenpat winning percentage, and cW% = component W% (the basis of these rankings).  All of the data I reference can be found in the final Power Rankings post of 2009.

4. Colorado Rockies.  TQI = 0.572

One of the things I was happiest about this season with respect to the power rankings was how quickly they picked up on the Rockies "Jim Tracy" turnaround.  On June 3rd, just as Hurdle was fired, they were down to 22nd in the rankings.  But on June 17th, they were picked as the NL Wild Card leaders--a spot they held for most of the rest of the season, except near the end of the September, when they actually passed the Dodgers (note, though, that there is no meaningful difference between the Rockies' and Dodgers' TQI estimates).  

In contrast, it wasn't until July 20th that they passed the Giants for the first time in the actual standings.  The Rockies offense and fielding were roughly average--this team was all about its pitching.  Perhaps it's the park factors I'm using, or something balky about my implementation of the stat itself, but tERA rates their staff better than any other in the league by a substantial margin: 3.56 vs. the 3.81 tRA Cubs.  FIP isn't quite so liberal (3.84 FIP ranks 3rd in the league), so I may be overrating them a bit...but I stand by the argument that their pitching staff was one of the best in the league.  And with that pitching staff, they ranked at the top of the National League.

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More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

I made it to just one MLB game this year. It was the Baseball Prospectus night at PNC Park vs. the Cardinals on Sept 5th. Pujols didn't start. He pitch hit in the 10th, though, and hit a home run to straight away center field. Ultimately won the game. This is that swing.

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We continue our division-by-division look at the teams of the 2009 regular season with my home division, the NL Central.  Below, W% = true winning percentage, pW% = pythagenpat winning percentage, and cW% = component W% (the basis of these rankings).  All of the data I reference can be found in the final Power Rankings post of 2009.

14. St. Louis Cardinals.  TQI = 0.514

The Cardinals were our lowest-ranked division leader, rating just above average across all of MLB.  Part of that's the league adjustment, but even our estimated cW% (0.541) rates a bit behind their nearly-identical W% and pW% (0.562 & 0.561, respectively).  The reason?  Our estimate of runs scored was an exact match for reality, but we estimated that a typical team with the Cardinals' component statistics for defense (pitching + fielding) would allow 30 more runs than the Cardinals actually did.  I have the Cards' tERA at 3.98 & FIP at 3.92, but their ERA was dramatically lower at 3.66.  There's no question that this team got excellent pitching this season, but given that this was a fairly average-fielding team, I think the pitching may have gotten a bit hit-lucky this year.

Like Philadelphia, however, the Cardinals are a team that got a major personnel upgrade over the course of the season.  Therefore, it's probably fair to say that the hit-luckiness of their pitchers is countered by the fact that this team didn't play the entire season together, and thus were probably better by season's end than the power rankings show.  I'd guess their true talent level is closer to their actual winning percentage.  It's a shame they were eliminated so quickly, as this was a team I was looking forward to watching in the postseason.

See the rest below the jump

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More photos » by Will Powers - AP

The Philadelphia Phillies are the defending champions and move on to the NLCS tonight. Are they better than their season numbers indicate?

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We continue our series of team-by-team reviews through the lens of the BtB Power Rankings with the National League East.  Below, W% = true winning percentage, pW% = pythagenpat winning percentage, and cW% = component W% (the basis of these rankings).  All of the data I reference can be found in the final Power Rankings post of 2009.

11. Philadelphia Phillies.  TQI = 0.525

The Phillies rank as the third-best team in the National League this season according to the power rankings, despite just missing the top-10.  They're not quite the offensive juggernaut that postseason announcers hype, but they do have an above-average offense even after accounting for park effects (wOBA = 0.338).  Coupled to that, however, is a plus-fielding team (+31 runs ranks 3rd in the league) with average-to-above-average pitching.  Their cW% (0.550) comes in a tad below their actual W% (0.574) and pW% (0.568), due to a 27 run "overestimate" of runs allowed.  Not sure on the cause--ERA is appropriately lower than FIP & tERA given the teams' plus fielding, and DER is actually fairly average indicating a little bit of bad luck.  

The acquisition of Cliff Lee this summer was huge, turning a middling rotation into a genuinely excellent one.  As a result, like the Cardinals (see tomorrow), the Phillies are probably a win or two better than their seasonal data indicate.  This would negate the difference between cW% & actual W%, so I'm ok with using their W% (after league adjustment) as a measure of their true talent level.

See the rest below the jump.

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More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Chone Figgins may be a 6 WAR player this year, and is the spark plug of one of the best offenses in the American League.

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We now turn our attention to the AL West.  As a reminder, you can access all of the data I'm citing in the 2009 end of season power rankings.

7. Los Angeles Angels. TQI = 0.549

The Angels are sort of the opposite of the Cleveland Indians (see yesterday's post), in that they always seem to overperform their component statistics.  In this case, we're estimating their component W% at 0.525, compared to their true record of 0.599.  The reason is a large disparity on both offense and defense.  Our estimated runs scored total is 32 shy of their actual total, while estimated runs allowed was a whopping 50 more than reality.  Why?  The run scored disparity matches up well to FanGraphs' team clutch score of +26 runs (though that's because, in part, I'm using some of the same data).  And on defense, tERA is 0.2 runs higher than actual ERA (FIP is intermediate), despite the Angels having slightly below-average fielding (due to the catching).  I don't know what to believe--the power rankings, or the Angels' record.  My guess is that their true talent is somewhere in between.  What I do know is that this is a different kind of Angels team--they have an outstanding offense, but are actually a bit below average in pitching and fielding.

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More photos » by David Banks - AP

Was Gavin Floyd the best pitcher on the best team in the AL Central this year? Maybe.

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We continue our series of team-by-team reviews through the lens of the BtB Power Rankings with the American League Central.  Below, W% = true winning percentage, pW% = pythagenpat winning percentage, and cW% = component W% (the basis of these rankings).  All of the data I reference can be found in the final Power Rankings post of 2009.

10. Chicago White Sox.  TQI = 0.529

The ChiSox beat out both the Twins and Tigers in our on-paper rankings, though what had been a sizeable lead became very close by the end of the season.  We're really not rating them much higher than their true winning percentage: 0.502 cW% vs. 0.488 W%.  The issue is that the power rankings see the Twins and Tigers as "overachieving."  As a team, the White Sox were pretty similar to the Cubs if perhaps a bit more extreme: they had excellent pitching, but a weak offense.  They also weren't very impressive in the field (-27 runs overall).

See commentary on the other teams below the jump!

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More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Yes, the Yankees are really good. Doesn't mean we have to stop hating them, of course.

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To round out this inaugural year of the BtB Power Rankings, I'm going to do team-by-team reviews of each division, as seen through the lens of the BtB Power Rankings.  First up, the division that dominated the rankings all year: The American League East.  Below, W% = true winning percentage, pW% = pythagenpat winning percentage, and cW% = component W% (the basis of these rankings).  You can see all of the data I will reference in the final Power Rankings post of the year.

1. New York Yankees.  TQI = 0.643

I'm a dedicated Yankees hater, but that doesn't mean I can't admire this year'd edition of the Bronx Bombers.  Their expected runs scored total is 100 higher than any other team in baseball.  And their defense (pitching & fielding) is solidly average.  The result is a extremely powerful club that dominated our power rankings over the final months of the season.  The difference between the first first and second place teams in TQI is more than the difference between second and fifth.  Overall, our estimated cW% matches up well to their true W%, despite the fact that pW% is a fair bit lower (0.594 vs. 0.620 cW% & 0.634 W%).  They're not unstoppable, but they have to be favored to go all the way this year.  Last night, they took the first step toward that goal.

See the rest of the teams below the jump!

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See the complete rankings below the jump!

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The BtB Power Rankings are based on an estimated, theoretical winning percentage (I call it Team Quality Index, or TQI) for each team based on their component statistics and an adjustment for league quality.  If we use TQI as an estimate of a team's true talent level (i.e. their quality), we can use those numbers to predict how teams will fare against one another in the playoffs (I used the odds ratio).  Here are those numbers:

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