Power Rankings

Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 26

by Daniel Moroz on Sep 26, 2011 2:30 PM EDT in Power Rankings

The division winners are all decided, with the #1, 2, 3, 5, 7, and 8 teams taking the crowns, while #'s 4, 6, 9, 10, and 11 still fighting for the last two spots.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Comments
1	Yankees	96	61	CC Sabathia is well behind Justin Verlander in ERA (2.40 vs. 3.00), but is tied for the AL lead with 7 pitcher fWAR.
2	Phillies	98	60	There are 7 NL pitchers with at least 5 fWAR and 5 NL pitchers with at least 5 rWAR; 3 Phillies in each group.
3	Rangers	92	66	CJ Wilson was a reliever two years ago; since then; 425 innings of 3.15 ERA ball and an average of over 5 fWAR a season.
4	Red Sox	88	69	Jacoby Ellsbury had 20 home runs in 1,513 career PA coming into 2011 - he has 31 in only 717 PA this year.
5	Brewers	93	65	Mark Kotsay has gotten 200+ PA for the 6th straight season; in that time he has accumulated a total of -1.6 fWAR.
6	Rays	87	71	Tampa Bay has only gone 7-7 over the last couple weeks, but they've gotten to within a game back of Boston in the Wild Card race.
7	Diamondbacks	92	66	Ryan Roberts is only 2 home runs and 2 steals away from making Arizona the only team in baseball with three 20-20 guys.
8	Tigers	91	67	Miguel Cabrera is having the best offensive season of his career (.341/.447/.579, 175 wRC+), which is saying something.
9	Cardinals	87	71	Octavio Dotel has been great since coming over to St. Louis; 12 K/9, 2 BB/9 - good for a 1.61 FIP and 2.25 xFIP.
10	Angels	86	72	Jered Weaver hasn't been quite as good down the stretch as he was to start the season; 3.71 ERA, 4.55 FIP since August 1st.
11	Braves	89	69	Craig Kimbrel setting the record for saves by a rookie (46) will probably help his case for the Rookie of the Year award.
12	Dodgers	79	78	3 homers in the last 4 games would give Matt Kemp (already hitting a fantastic .324/.400/.581) a 40-40 season.
13	White Sox	77	81	If he doesn't get knocked out in the first inning in his last start, Mark Buerhle should get to 200 IP for the 11th straight year.
14	Giants	84	74	For pitchers with at least 40 IP, Sergio Romo has, by far, the best K/BB ratio in the majors at 13.2.
15	Blue Jays	80	78	Rookie Henderson Alvarez has pitched well over the last month, minimizing free passes (0.8 BB/9) and getting grounders( 56%).

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Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 25

by Daniel Moroz on Sep 19, 2011 2:30 PM EDT in Power Rankings

The Red Sox are barely holding off the Rays in the AL Wild Card race, but 7 games versus the Orioles (instead of versus the Yankees and Blue Jays, like Tampa Bay) gives them an edge above and beyond their 2 game lead.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Comments
1	Yankees	91	60	It's no longer the 20% it was earlier in the season, but the Yankees 14.6% HR/FB ratio is easily the highest in the majors.
2	Phillies	98	53	Raul Ibanez's 19 home runs are second most for the team this year, but he's got just a .309 wOBA overall (and -1.2 fWAR).
3	Red Sox	87	65	It only took 9 games, but Tim Wakefield finally picked up career win number 200 - the 2nd oldest pitcher to ever get there.
4	Rangers	88	65	Ian Kinsler has a .239 BABIP, but still deserves some MVP votes given that he's 5th in the AL with 6.6 position player fWAR.
5	Brewers	90	63	Yovani Gallardo has been on a roll the last month, with a 13 K/9 and a 2.10 xFIP - but also 2.4 HR/9 bringing his ERA up to 3.82.
6	Tigers	89	64	If Jose Valverde saves every one of Detroit's remaining games, he'll tie Eric Gagne for the most saves in a season with 0 blown.
7	Rays	85	67	Johnny Damon's 7.4% walk rate would be the lowest he's had in a season since 1996. Same with the 1.1 fWAR.
8	Cardinals	83	69	Yadier Molina has doubled his usual home run production (13), while also walking less frequently than in any season of his career.
9	Diamondbacks	88	65	Joe Saunders has a 1.6 K/BB ratio in 199 IP this year - the lowest mark for anyone who's tossed that many innings this year.
10	Angels	83	69	27 home runs have helped make Mark Trumbo the most productive hitter in the majors (107 wRC+) with a sub .300 OBP.
11	Braves	87	66	Atlanta is just 22nd in the majors with a .307 wOBA, and they have only 3 players with at least 200 PA that are over even .330.
12	Dodgers	76	76	Over the last month, Clayton Kershaw is 4-0 with a 0.77 ERA, a 1.42 FIP (best in the majors), and a 2.45 xFIP.
13	White Sox	74	78	Including the minors, Brent Lillibridge had 14 home runs in 1,190 PA from '08-10. He has 13 homers in just 216 PA this year.
14	Giants	83	70	Aubrey Huff is no longer last on the team in fWAR! That distinction now belongs to Orlando Cabrera (-0.7 in only 37 games).
15	Blue Jays	77	75	Brett Lawrie has played in only 41 games, but a .420 wOBA has him third on the team in position player fWAR at 2.5.

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Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 24

by Daniel Moroz on Sep 12, 2011 2:30 PM EDT in Power Rankings

They're not quite out of it at the moment, but do you think the Rays would have liked a 5th Wild Card spot this year?

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Comments
1	Yankees	87	57	I'm not sure if Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia being 2nd and 3rd on the team in starter fWAR (2.5, 2.2) is good or bad.
2	Phillies	94	48	Cliff Lee has allowed a grand total of 3 earned runs in his last 55.2 IP (2 of them on one HR), with a 52-10 K/BB ratio.
3	Red Sox	85	60	Adrian Gonzalez only has 25 home runs this year - not what many expected leaving Petco - but still with a .409 wOBA.
4	Rangers	82	64	Texas' lead has dwindled to just 2.5 games, but their run differential is 90 runs better than LA's.
5	Brewers	85	62	Yuniesky Betancourt is still above replacement level, but it's going to be close at the finish (0.1 fWAR).
6	Rays	80	64	Jeremy Hellickson is posting a nice 2.96 ERA (despite a 4.30 FIP) largely on the strength of a .229 BABIP.
7	Tigers	83	62	Detroit went 49-43 while being outscored in the first half, but they're playing .642 ball after the break.
8	Cardinals	78	67	Two years and only $21 M for Chris Carpenter seems good, given he's averaging over 4.5 fWAR for '09-11.
9	Diamondbacks	85	61	Willie Bloomquist has received 340 PA for the team, and yet they hold an 8.5 game lead in the NL West. You can't explain that.
10	Angels	80	65	Dan Haren is having a quietly great season. He's even passed Jered Weaver in fWAR (up to 6.1).
11	Braves	84	62	Craig Kimbrel's record streak of appearances without allowing a run was just snapped at 38.
12	White Sox	73	71	Chris Sale (10 K/9, 3 BB/9, 50% GB%) has been like Matt Thorton #2 this year (10 K/9, 3 BB/9, 50% GB%).
13	Dodgers	72	72	Jamey Carroll is the only qualified batter in the majors without a home this year; tied a career high with 5 triples though.
14	Reds	71	74	It's only in part-time duty, but Ryan Hanigan has the best K/BB ratio in baseball for a catcher.
15	Blue Jays	73	73	Outside the AL East, no 3rd place team is above .500. The Jays are (now), and are in 4th.

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Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 23

by Daniel Moroz on Sep 5, 2011 2:30 PM EDT in Power Rankings

Enjoy all the day-time Labor Day baseball!

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Comments
1	Yankees	84	53	After a down year with the White Sox in 2008, Nick Swisher has been back in form as a Yankee (3.2, 4.2, and now 4.4 fWAR).
2	Phillies	88	47	Ryan Howard looks like he's going to fail to get to 2 fWAR for the second year in a row. His 5 year extension starts next season.
3	Red Sox	84	54	This has been perhaps the worst full season of Jon Lester's career. He has a 3.05 ERA and a 2.5 K/BB ratio.
4	Rangers	79	61	Michael Young is getting some MVP attention? He's 5th on his own team in fWAR, though 3.6 is his best since 2006.
5	Brewers	83	57	Zack Greinke has missed some time this year, unfortunately, because he's leading the majors with a 2.49 xFIP.
6	Rays	75	63	Desmond Jennings has a decent chance at 10 HR and 20 SB this year, and is at 2.1 fWAR in only 41 games.
7	Diamondbacks	79	60	Paul Goldschimdt hits home runs; 6 in just 102 PA so far this year, but a 33% strike-out rate to go along with them.
8	Cardinals	74	65	It's a good thing they picked Corey Patterson up from the Blue Jays; .178/.196/.267 with 11 K's to 1 walk.
9	Braves	81	57	Jason Heyward's monthly walks rates this year; 12.4%, 12.2%, 11.7%, 8%, 5.6%, and 0% so far in September.
10	Tigers	77	62	Since joining the club, Delmon Young has hit .291/.292/.453, with 3 HR in 20 games after hitting 4 in 84 games with the Twins.
11	Angels	75	64	Mike Trout is showing some unexpected power, with 5 home runs already in only 89 PA. And only 1 stolen base.
12	White Sox	68	68	Adam Dunn, hitting .162/.289/.288, has to go 45 for his next 45 to get up to the .260 he hit last year in Washington.
13	Dodgers	68	70	They've gone 11-2 over the last couple weeks, getting close to that .500 mark (if no closer to 1st place; Arizona also went 11-2).
14	Reds	68	71	Fransisco Cordero's strike-out rate has plummeted to 5.5 K/9, but he's also walking batters much less often than in recent yrs.
15	Blue Jays	69	70	The guy who's pitched the 3rd most innings for the team this year (Jo-Jo Reyes with 110) actually got waived over a month ago.

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Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 22

by Daniel Moroz on Aug 29, 2011 2:30 PM EDT in Power Rankings

And the Twins finally fall back into last place - getting swept in a four game series with the Orioles (at home, no less) will do that.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Comments
1	Yankees	78	51	Not only is David Robertson leading the AL in strike-out rate at 13.6 K/9, but he's the only guy with 50 IP with 0 HR allowed.
2	Phillies	83	46	Cliff Lee in August: 0.58 ERA, 2.14 FIP. And yet his 2.59 xFIP makes it only his third best month this year.
3	Red Sox	82	51	Jacoby Ellsbury came into 2011 with 20 career home runs in 1,513 PA - he has 23 homers in the 591 PA this year.
4	Rangers	75	59	As a flyball pitcher with a 12.3% HR/FB, Colby Lewis has been taken deep more than any other AL pitcher (1.6 HR/9).
5	Brewers	80	54	Corey Hart has homered 8 times in the last month, getting his wRC+ up to what would be a career high 135.
6	Rays	72	59	James Shields just became the second pitcher in the last 10 years with 10 complete games in a season (CC in '08).
7	Braves	79	54	Brandon Beachy is leading all Braves starters - and all major league rookie starters - with a 4.0 K/BB ratio.
8	Cardinals	69	64	Marc Rzepczynski has done a nice job in relief since coming over from Toronto; 0.82 ERA with a 2.52 xFIP.
9	Angels	72	60	Jerome Williams was very good in his first major league start since 2007; 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K.
10	Diamondbacks	74	59	David Hernandez's transition to flame-throwing reliever seems to have gone well; 94.5 mph fastball, 9.8 K/9.
11	Tigers	73	59	Justin Verlander - with 20 wins already - has a chance to be the first pitcher since Bob Welch in 1990 with more than 24.
12	Reds	66	66	Only 4 Reds - Votto, Phillips, Bruce, and Stubbs - have more than 325 PA this year; fewer than any other team.
13	White Sox	65	65	A 3.24 xFIP from their pitchers in August has Chicago above .500 and in second place in the AL Central.
14	Blue Jays	66	66	Jose Bautista leads the majors with 106 walks; also with 87 unintentional walks (more than all but 3 guys have total BB).
15	Mets	62	68	Chris Capuano's complete game 13 K, 2 H, 0 BB shutout recently was the highest game score (96) of the season.

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Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 21

by Daniel Moroz on Aug 22, 2011 2:30 PM EDT in Power Rankings

The Tigers finally climb into the top 10, joining the other division leaders.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Comments
1	Yankees	76	48	New York leads the league in quite a few offensive categories - including stolen bases (an AL tops 123).
2	Red Sox	76	49	Daniel Bard is the only pitcher in the majors (min. 50 IP) with at least 9 K/9, less than 3 BB/9, and a GB% over 50%.
3	Phillies	81	43	Hunter Pence seems to be adjusting to playing for a good team just fine; .307/.386/.520 since coming to Philly.
4	Rangers	73	54	Ian Kinsler has tied Brandon Phillips for the second most 20-20 season by a second-baseman (3; Joe Morgan has 4).
5	Brewers	75	52	Milwaukee is 22-3 in their last 25 games, and has opened up the largest division lead in the majors (8.5 games).
6	Braves	75	52	For Jose Costanza (.360/.407/.480 in 84 PA), major league pitching has been as tough to handle as a game of Frogger.
7	Cardinals	66	60	Since the start of June, Albert Pujols has a .434 wOBA. And he's also now leading the NL in home runs, with 31.
8	Rays	68	56	Ben Zobrist is back in MVP form himself after a slightly down 2010 - he's on pace to cross the 8 fWAR line again like in '09.
9	Diamondbacks	69	57	Great bat (.299/.371/.548) and glove (+13 UZR) have made Justin Upton the NL's fWAR leader (6.2).
10	Tigers	67	58	Doug Fister has only walked 2 batters in 21.2 IP since getting traded to Detroit - though he's also hit two guys.
11	Blue Jays	64	62	Despite getting into just 39 games, back-up catcher Jose Molina is third on the team in position player fWAR (1.4).
12	Reds	61	65	MLB ERA leader Johnny Cueto (1.89) has the lowest BABIP in baseball (.225) and the 7th lowest HR/FB rate (5.8%).
13	White Sox	62	63	Mark Buehrle is on pace for his 11th straight 200+ IP season - the most for any hurler since Greg Maddux's 14 in a row ('88-'01).
14	Mets	60	65	David Wright is hitting .292/.357/.469 since coming off the DL, but it's a .285 wOBA Aug. following the .479 July.
15	Angels	68	59	Maybe with the recent call-up of Hank Conger, the Jeff Mathis (.176/.225/.254) days my finally be waning in LA.

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Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 20

by Daniel Moroz on Aug 15, 2011 2:30 PM EDT in Power Rankings

All 8 teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today are in the top 13.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Comments
1	Yankees	72	46	AJ Burnett has seen his ERA go up each month this year, topping out at 9.58 in August thus far.
2	Red Sox	73	45	Boston position player have been great, leading the league in hitting (.354 wOBA) & fielding (+37 UZR).
3	Phillies	78	41	Ryan Madson... still doing a nice job as the closer (22 for 23 in saves, and a 2.16 ERA and 2.15 FIP).
4	Rangers	68	52	Alex Ogando hasn't exactly hit a wall as some may have expected; ~3.55 FIP through June, and ~3.27 FIP since.
5	Brewers	69	51	Yuniesky Betancourt has followed up a .322 wOBA July with a .408 wOBA (and .405 BABIP) August.
6	Cardinals	64	56	Jake Westbrook has the highest groundball rate in the majors (60.9%) - his best since '05.
7	Braves	70	50	In the AL Central, Atlanta's record would be good for a 5.5 game lead. In the NL East, they're 9 games out.
8	Diamondbacks	67	53	Your NL wins leaders, with 15, are Roy Halladay (expected) and Ian Kennedy (not quite expected).
9	Rays	64	55	Lowest ERA amongst AL closers? Kyle Farnsworth's 1.96. Not too shabby for $2.6 M, plus there's a club option for '12.
10	Mets	58	61	Jason Isringhausen is still sitting on 299 career saves. He has 6 this year, to go along with his -0.3 fWAR.
11	Reds	59	61	Joey Votto has the highest career BABIP (.355) amongst active players with at least 2,000 PA.
12	Blue Jays	60	59	Brandon Morrow's still leading AL starters in strike-out rate, by a lot. His 10.1 K/9 is well ahead of Michael Pineda's 9.1 K/9.
13	Tigers	64	55	Victor Martinez is hitting above his career level (123 wRC+ vs. 121), but is only at 1.8 fWAR. DH'ing a lot < catching a lot.
14	Angels	65	55	Ervin Santana's last four starts; 35.1 IP (3 CG), 3 ER, 30 K, 6 BB, with a no-hitter mixed in.
15	White Sox	59	60	For the second year in a row, Alexei Ramirez is leading AL shortstops in UZR, at +8.2 runs.

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Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 19

by Daniel Moroz on Aug 8, 2011 2:30 PM EDT in Power Rankings

The Angels and Diamondbacks are keeping things interesting for the Rangers and Giants in the western division, and in the NL it seems like the better team might be the one that's currently in second place.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Comments
1	Yankees	69	44	Curtis Granderson has scored 100 runs already, and is on pace for 143 - the most in the majors since A-Rod's 143 in 2007.
2	Red Sox	70	43	Dustin Pedroia has almost caught up to Jose Bautista in the fWAR race (6.7 to 6.9), as well as his own career high (6.8).
3	Phillies	74	40	Most wins for a Philly starter over the last month? That would be Vance Worley (4-0). Go figure.
4	Rangers	64	51	Mike Napoli is tied for the major league lead in homers amongst "catchers" with 18 despite only 255 total PA.
5	Cardinals	62	53	Albert Pujols has only walked more than 9.6% of the time in one month this year - only failed twice at that for 2004-2010.
6	Brewers	65	50	Zack Greinke has the largest gap between his ERA (4.21) and xFIP (2.30) in the majors (min. 100 IP).
7	Braves	66	49	Dan Uggla's 28 game hitting streak, during which he's homered 12 times, has him up from a .568 OPS to a .716.
8	Diamondbacks	62	52	After a slightly down 2010, Justin Upton is hitting .295/.371/.541 with 5.2 fWAR this year. Not bad for a 23 year-old.
9	Mets	56	57	Despite only 77 home runs, the Mets have been one of the better hitting teams in the majors (105 wRC+ is 5th).
10	Reds	55	59	Man, if Aroldis Chapman ever learns to throw strikes... 98 mph average fastball, 14 K/9, but 7 BB/9.
11	Angels	63	52	Peter Bourjos has the great glove (+29 UZR/150 career), but could be solid with the bat too if his above average BABIP persists.
12	Rays	59	54	Matt Joyce in April/May: 1.066 OPS with a .416 BABIP. Matt Joyce since: .613 OPS with a .218 BABIP.
13	Blue Jays	58	56	Three games into his major league career, Brett Lawrie has already homered and is hitting .455/.455/.727.
14	Tigers	61	53	Max Scherzer's K/9 has dropped off for a fourth straight season (7.5 now), but he's also improved his control (2.8 BB/9).
15	Giants	63	52	Carlos Beltran in San Francisco: .244/.261/.356 with an 11:1 strike-out to walk ratio and a hurt hand.