I was scoping over Andy Sonnanstine's pitchf/x data and noticed that Josh Kalk has added similarity scores now.

I know, this is a stats blog, but come on, when the Baltimore Sun provides a story like this you have to post it.

Over/under a week until someone ends up on the disabled list due to a Heelys related injury?

I haven't made much effort to promote this, but last fall I developed a new projection system.  The occasion was John Burnson's book The Graphical Player, for which he commissioned the forecasts.

The reason I'm writing about it now is that David Appelman has been kind enough to include my projections along with some other better-known, better-established (and maybe just better) systems on FanGraphs.  Thanks John and David!

Here's a quick overview of what MINER is, and what makes it different:

• It's a regression-based system, and it makes no effort to identify player types, or similar players.  In fact, it's based almost entirely on top of Marcel.
  
  
• I make extensive use of batted-ball data, so that BABIP depends on the player's distribution of batted balls, and pitcher HR allowed is based on fly balls allowed.  (Among other things.)
  
  
• I also make extensive use of level- and park-adjusted minor league data, including batted ball data.
  
  
• There is some effort to project playing time: in addition to basing projections on past playing time, I've docked players PAs and IPs if they are projected to perform well below replacement for their position, and the amount they are docked depends on just how bad they are projected to be.  This is very approximate, especially since I am only using offensive numbers to determine their production relative to replacement.
  
  
• In The Graphical Player, there are three years of projections and three tiers--20th, 50th, and 80th percentile.  FanGraphs is publishing just the one.  For anything beyond the median 2008 forecasts, well...you'll have to buy the book.

For now, I've also published the spreadsheets as google docs.  As David was including them on FanGraphs, an incredibly obvious bug popped out; when that is resolved, I'll publish Excel files that you can play with.  In the meantime, you'll find the Google Docs here and here.

Enjoy!

Quick post here, I usually tend to avoid steroids related posts, simply because I don't care for them too much, but this Roger Clemens hoopla is a joke. As a country with some economics issues and a war still going on, should we really be putting the resources into investigating entertainment? Next, who really thinks that high school kids are taking steroids and such because Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and whoever else is supposedly taking them? You know why they're taking them? I'd tend to believe it's because they can make six figures at baseball, only five at a regular job; 390K playing baseball or 40K teaching? Hm.

As you may have noticed Athletics Nation is going through that time in life when networks change formats. I'm not completely sure when we will be doing so, but probably within the next week you'll get a similar screen here. I have no idea how long the site will be down, but for all of our sakes I hope not too long.

Though the deal isn't officially complete, it appears the Mets are on the verge of acquiring perhaps baseball's most dominant pitcher in Johan Santana.

The Mets have been given a 72-hour window to sign Santana to an extension and given the relatively low price they paid for him, it seems almost inevitable Santana will be pitching many of his games at Shea Stadium in 2008 and beyond.

In some respect, it must be a sad day for Twins fans because Santana's numbers with their team speak for themselves:  A 93-44 record, 1308.2 innings pitched, 1381 strikeouts, 141 ERA+ along with two Cy Young Awards and three All-Star game appearances.  Not too shabby.

With all of that said, let's reminisce on just how dominant Santana has been over his career looking at the top ten games he's pitched according to game score:

Date:  September 3rd, 2005

Opponent:  Cleveland Indians

Game Score:  84

Box Score

Santana outdueled Cy Young candidate Kevin Millwood pitching 8 innings, giving up one run on two hits and no walks.  He struck out ten Cleveland hitters including Jhonny Peralta four times.   The Twins went on to win the game 3-2.

Date:  August 15th, 2006

Opponent:  Cleveland Indians

Game Score:  84

Box Score

In another good pitchers duel, Santana this time defeated Jake Westbook pitching 8 innings, giving up no runs on three hits and one walk.  He struck on nine hitters including Peralta and Kelly Shoppach three times each.  Minnesota would win 4-1.

Date:  September 3rd, 2004

Opponent:  Kansas City Royals

Game Score:  84

Box Score

Santana has always pitched well against Kansas City going 12-3 in his career against the Royals and this was one of his better starts.  Santana was flat out nasty pitching 7 innings, giving up no runs on one hit and one walk.  Every hitter in the Royals lineup struck out once with Santana compiling a total of 11 punchouts.  The Twins would win 2-0.

Date:  September 17th, 2005

Opponent:  Chicago White Sox

Game Score:  85

Box Score

This is why I, as a White Sox fan, won't be complaining that Santana won't be pitching in the American League Central next season.  In one of his many dominating starts against the ChiSox, Santana pitched 8 innings, giving up no runs on four hits and two walks.  He struck out 13 hitters including Jermaine Dye four times.  The Twins went on to win 5-0.

Date:  June 28th, 2002

Opponent:  Toronto Blue Jays

Game Score:  88

Box Score

This one was Santana's first real dominant big league start.  Just 23-years-old at the time, Santana pitched 8 strong innings against the Jays, giving up no runs on two hits and three walks.  He struck out 13 hitters including Jose Cruz Jr. and Vernon Wells each three times.  The Twins would win the game 4-0.

Date:  June 8th, 2005

Opponent:  Arizona Diamondbacks

Game Score:  88

Box Score

Quite possibly Santana finest interleague performance was a blowout.  He would pitch a complete game, giving up no runs on four hits and no walks.  He struck out nine Diamondback hitters including Royce Clayton three times.  The Twins would win easily 10-0.

Date:  August 12th, 2005

Opponent:  Oakland Athletics

Game Score:  89

Box Score

In yet another pitcher's duel, Santana would this time outpitch Dan Haren.  Each starter went nine innings, but Santana was just a hair better giving up no runs on three hits and one walk.  He would strike out nine hitters as the Twins went on to win a nail-biter 1-0.

Date:  September 5th, 2006

Opponent:  Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Game Score:  89

Box Score

In his 17th win of the season, Santana would pitch 8 innings against Tampa giving up no runs on two hits and one walk.  He struck out 12 hitters and the Twins went on to win 8-0.

Date:  July 6th, 2004

Opponent:  Kansas City Royals

Game Score:  92

Box Score

In arguably the second best start if his career, Santana dominated the Royals once again pitching a complete game, giving up no runs on three hits and two walks.  He struck out 13 hitters including Ken Harvey three times.  The Twins would win 4-0.

Date:  August 19th, 2007

Opponent:  Texas Rangers

Game Score:  95

Box Score

In one of his final home starts in a Twins uniform, Santana was simply was simply brilliant against the Texas Rangers.  Throwing 83 of his 112 pitches for strikes, Santana pitched 8 innings giving up no runs on two hits and no walks.  He struck out a career high 17 hitters as the Twins won 1-0.

If Johan Santana's days in Minnesota are indeed over, there isn't much question he put together a very memorable run, certainly one of the best we've seen in a while.

No, I'm not trying to turn Beyond the Box Score into a Cubs blog; I simply wanted to take another look at starter Carlos Zambrano.

Back in April of 2007, I posted a piece regarding Zambrano's rather pessimistic five-year PECOTA forecast.  For those of you who need your memory refreshed, here's a look:

As we can see, PECOTA projected good things for Zambrano in 2007, but it certainly accredited a downward trend in his overall production.  It also acknowledged the heavy workloads he had accumulated in his career up to that point may very well catch up to him as evident of the sharp decline in projected workload.

With the 2007 season long gone, let's take a look at how PECOTA did:

Nice shootin'.  Zambrano's ERA rose for the third year in a row and his peripherals continue to worsen.  While PECOTA was nearly dead on with the predicted home run and groundball rates, it was actually a bit generous on the strikeout and walk rates.  After showing a steady increase in his ability to strike hitters out, Zambrano's K/9 really went south in 2007 and his walk rate remained at a dangerously high level.

Maybe last season was just a bump in the road for Zambrano. Maybe it was just an aberration and he'll bounce back strongly in 2008.  Or is it that PECOTA is onto something here?

Back in May I suggested that Zambrano and the Cubs needed to do two things in order to "avoid" such a harsh projection:  Zambrano must control his emotions on the field and the Cubs coaching staff must watch his workload.

Unfortunately, neither of the two were fulfilled in 2007.

I once again have zero statistical evidence to back up this statement, but Zambrano still shows a tendency to pitch with too much emotion.  He still overthrows his pitches from time to time which often leads to poor control and far too many free passes.  And who can forget about the dugout fight with former Cubs catcher Michael Barrett?  As I mentioned earlier, Zambrano's emotions might very well be something holding him back.

More importantly, Zambrano continues to accumulate a ton of mileage on his right arm.  From 2004 to 2006, Zambrano placed eleventh, second and second respectively in Total Pitcher Abuse Points Accumulated.  Last season we saw more of the same, as Big Z placed second in that category once again.

There were a whopping 15 occasions last year in which Zambrano was forced to throw more than 110 pitches and four occasions in which he was forced to throw more than 122 pitches.  I understand that Lou Piniella wants to get innings out of his starters and that it's tough to get those innings when guys like Zambrano are putting runners on base and running into high pitch counts early in the game, but this is getting a little ridiculous.  

With Zambrano locked down until 2012 (for $91.5M), it's of the utmost importance the Cubs strongly monitor his workload.  He might be one of those guys that can "handle" heavy workloads, but that's a very expensive risk to take.

Though the projection is outdated, if PECOTA predicts Zambrano's five-year projection as well as it did his 2007 season, the Cubs made an awfully big mistake extending his contract into the next half-decade.

The Cubs have made plenty of noise this winter with the signings of both Kosuke Fukudome and Kerry Wood and it appears Jim Hendry may not be done yet.

Yesterday rumors begin to swirl around the web regarding the Brian Roberts to Cubs trade rumors.  Some sources originally claimed a deal was imminent, while others claimed the Orioles asking price may be a bit too high for Jim Hendry's likings.

Whatever the case, talks are clearly taking place between the two clubs and Brian Roberts may very well start at second base for the Cubs come Opening Day.

Hendry clearly isn't satisfied with what his organization has to offer at second base, but perhaps the best option is right in front of him in Eric Patterson.

Now, I'm not saying Roberts isn't a sensible option.  Last season he hit .290/.377/.432 and his VORP of 48.2 runs was good for third best among all major league second basemen.  He stole 50 bags at an 88% clip and moving to the National League is something he would likely benefit from. He was clearly a top five second basemen last season and assuming he doesn't lose his line drive stroke, he should be quite good in 2008.

One could argue this is just what the Cubs need.  The acquisition of Fukudome gives the Cubs arguably one of the strongest lineups in the National League; a trade for Roberts would really put the icing on the cake.

My question is:  Should the Cubs trade top-tier talent for Roberts or is Patterson a better in-house solution?

We all know what Roberts can do, but what about Patterson?

I've written of Corey's younger brother in the past and while he's certainly not the "toolsiest" 24-year old, he does project quite well.  Though it's a bit outdated, here is a look at his PECOTA five-year projection:

Patterson's 5-year valuation is quite strong and given the fact he hit .297/.359/.457 in his first full season at AAA, he should project as a pretty solid major leaguer in '08.  A few questions have been raised about his ability to play second base, but even with below average defense he's quite a commodity:  A young second basemen with strong on-base ability and decent pop making the major league minimum is something a number of GM's would kill for.

I'm interested to see what PECOTA has to say about Patterson for 2008.  His 2007 season at AAA was good enough to the point where the Cubs felt comfortable giving him a mere 8 major league at-bats, but he's definitely a better option than Ryan Theriot and Mark DeRosa and I wish he would have seen some time at second for the Cubs last season.

As a stat-oriented fan, Eric Patterson is the type of player I like.  However, I must admit that if the Cubs have the opportunity to strike a relatively fair deal with the Orioles to acquire Brian Roberts they should jump all over it.

In my opinion, Roberts would give the Cubs the most potent offense in the National League and he would surely give them the opportunity to make a run at the pennant in 2008.

If the Cubs however can't strike a deal for Roberts, there is no reason Cub fans should start throwing chairs.  Assuming Hendry realizes what he has in Patterson the way he did with Geovany Soto, the Cubs have a pretty good in-house solution available for second base.

With the trades of both Dan Haren and Nick Swisher, the Atheltics have completely revamped what looked to be a pretty weak farm system.

Though one can argue the Athletics did not acquire one "sure prospect" in either of the trades, they have acquired a number of talented players, many of which have the ability to make a difference at the major league level.  Let's take a look at each of the nine players the A's have acquired in their (possibly first two) big trades of the winter:

Carlos Gonzalez (acquired in Haren trade):  The immensely talented 22-year old had a very solid 2007 season split between AA and AAA hitting .288/.336/.478 with 17 homers in an even 500 at-bats.  You'd like to see a bit more plate discipline from a corner outfielder (Gonzalez took only 38 walks last season), but his upside is outstanding.  Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus notes that his tools rate as outstanding and he even makes a Hanley Ramirez comparison claiming that Gonzalez might be ready to produce in the majors despite the fact his previous minor league season wasn't dominant by statistical standards.  It's also worth noting Gonzalez has played centerfield before and while he's probably no future gold glove winner, he won't make a fool out of himself out there either.

Brett Anderson (acquired in Haren trade):  A former second-round pick, Anderson's first professional season went well as he posted a 3.07 ERA and 125/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 120.1 innings split between two levels of A-ball.  Though he's more of a lefty command pitcher without nearly as much upside as the recently acquired Gonzalez or De Los Santos, Goldstein argues he's one the finest pitching prospect in the Oakland system citing his breaking ball and changeup as both plus pitches.  It'll be interesting to see how Anderson performs at higher levels of play, but Oakland's got a good one here.

Chris Carter (acquired in Haren trade):  I've written of Carter in the past:

He had a monster season at A-ball last year as a 20-year old hitting .291/.383/.522 with 55 extra base hits (25 of which went out of the ballpark). He can hit, that's not much of a question, but his speed on the base paths and defense at first base both rate as below average.  Possibly the most intriguing aspect of Carter's presence is the pressure he places on Daric Barton.  Barton figures to start at first base for the A's come Opening Day, but if his power development continues to stall, Carter may find himself in Oakland's future plans quite soon.

Aaron Cunningham (acquired in Haren trade):   Scouts have generally given Cunningham lukewarm reviews due to the fact he doesn't really have a single skill that stands out, but he's a very interesting player on a statistical level.  As a 21-year old, Cunningham had a very strong 2007 season hitting .308/.375/.509 in 493 at-bats between A+ and AA.  He hit 16 home runs, but added in 31 doubles and 10 triples.  Before the season began, PECOTA saw some upside listing Lastings Milledge, Nick Markakis, Matt Kemp and Jeff Francoeur as comparable players.

Dana Eveland (acquired in Haren trade):   A possible sleeper in the Haren deal, Eveland hasn't had much success at the major league level, but he boasts career 8.84 K/9 and 2.61 ERA marks in the minors.  Eveland has above average stuff for a left-handed pitcher as he can get his fastball in the mid-nineties and usually showcases a pretty good breaking ball.  Not likely to start, he could be a pretty effective relief pitcher out of the Arizona bullpen health permitting.

Greg Smith (acquired in Haren trade):  I haven't read too many scouting reports on Smith, but from a statistical perspective, it seems he's more of a control lefty that's generally done a good job keeping the ball in the ballpark.  That might be a bit fluky however, seeing as his groundball rates aren't very eye-popping.  He didn't place on Goldstein's top 11 prospects list, so I'm assuming we have nothing special on our hands.

Faustino de los Santos (acquired in Swisher trade):  In my opinion, the finest pitching prospect the Athletics have acquired this winter.  As a 21-year old, De Los Santos was brilliant at both levels of A-Ball posting a 2.65 ERA and 153/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 122.1 innings.  Equally brilliant are his scouting reports as Kevin Goldstein named him the finest prospect in the White Sox system before the trade.  His fastball and curve both rate as plus pitches with excellent movement and the development of his changeup is crucial as he moves up to higher levels of play. Goldstein notes that many scouts are torn as to whether his major league future is in the starting rotation or bullpen, but whatever the case, he's a damn good pitching prospect with star potential.

Gio Gonzalez (acquired in Swisher trade):  Goldstein placed Gonzalez right behind Los Santos on his White Sox Top Prospects list and it's easy to see why.  As a 21-year old in his second season at AA, he pitched very well posting a 3.18 ERA and 185/57 strikeout to walk ratio in 150 innings. Goldstein mentions that while his changeup is still a work in progress, his fastball and curveball both rate as plus pitches, his curve possibly being one of the best pitches in all of the minor leagues.  On the downside he's a flyball pitcher that was having his second go-round at the AA level. Like Los Santos, Gonzalez might eventually end up in the bullpen, but for now he'll remain a starter and he could very well make his first major league start next season.

Ryan Sweeney (acquired in Swisher trade):  Sweeney has always had the skills scouts love, but the production, particularly in the power department, just hasn't emerged yet even after two stops at AAA.  At 22 years old, he's still plenty young and may just be a late bloomer, but many are having their doubts especially after he hit .270/.347/.398 in his second try at AAA.  Things wouldn't look so bleak if he could play centerfield, but his defensive abilities truly limit him to a corner spot.

As a whole, that's an impressive bunch of young players even when you consider the fact they have traded arguably their finest starting pitcher and finest offensive position player.

For better or for worse, Billy Beane has a plan and he's certainly showing that he has the guts to carry it out this winter.

So yeah, this one's a bit late, but being a White Sox fan I feel compelled to write about Monday's trade between Chicago and Arizona.

First let's look at things from Arizona's perspective.  

With Eric Byrnes, Chris Young and Justin Upton each patrolling the Diamondback outfield, numerous baseball officials and those around the blogosphere felt the D'Backs would try to package Quentin and Double-A outfielder Carlos Gonzalez in a trade to acquire a much needed starter. Things obviously didn't work that way so the D'Backs settled for the lesser-known Chris Carter coming from the White Sox farm system.

Only 21 years of age, Carter still has a long way to go before reaching the majors, however he's already developed a reputation as your classic first baseman who can flat out rake, but offers very little on the speed and defense front.

Here's a look at Carter's numbers thus far into his short career:

As we can see, Carter is not afraid to hack away. He's shown a pretty good eye over two levels as evident of his walk rates, but he's a big time strikeout guy as well.  Still far too early to tell, but Carter looks like your prototypical three true outcomes type player.  Its worth noting Carter did improve both his walk and strikeout rates in his first full A-ball season.

Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein recently rated Carter as the #4 prospect in the White Sox system citing his tremendous strength, power to all fields, ability to draw walks and the fact he has no particular weakness against left or right-handed pitchers as his primary strengths.  His poor defense, lack of speed and high strikeout frequency are his obvious weaknesses.  Goldstein also notes Carter should begin the 2008 season at High-A ball.

Carter doesn't figure to have an immediate impact with the D'Backs, but Conor Jackson needs to pick things up if he wants to have any sort of long-term career with Arizona.

For Kenny Williams, he can certainly breathe a little easier now.  In my opinion, the White Sox needed to pursue both a centerfielder and a leftfielder when the winter meetings began.  One down, possibly another to go.

Quentin figures to step right into the White Sox vacant left field position, a place where players such as Scott Podsednik (-4.9 VORP), Rob Mackowiak (6.1 VORP) and Andy Gonzalez (-18.6 VORP) have recently called their stomping grounds.

The 25 year old didn't by any means put up All-Star caliber numbers last season; injuries and such limited him to a .214/.298/.339 line in 229 AB's.  However, he went under the knife this past October to repair his non-throwing arm and boasts a career .312/.427/.526 career MiLB line.

Assuming Quentin is in tip-top shape when the season begins, he's easily going to outproduce the like of Podsednik, Mackowiak and Gonzalez and could be a nice little bargain for the White Sox as he'll certainly make less than $1M big ones next season.

As a Sox fan, I love this deal.  Quentin will provide a little youth to an aging White Sox lineup and he's years away from testing free agent waters.

The only knock against Quentin is that while he'll likely be an above average corner outfielder next season (health permitting), he doesn't project as much of a superstar.

The Sox however, who received a .256/.322/.399 line from their leftfielders last season, will be ecstatic with any above average play at that position.

Just for kicks, Quentin's 2008 Bill James Handbook Projection looks like this:  .263/.341/.455 with 13 home runs in 380 AB's.

I personally feel that projection is a little light on workload and batting average.  For a guy that posted a MiLB batting average of .312, I expect a little better than the '08 Bill James Handbook.