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A Graphic Look at the Window to Win: San Diego Padres


Padres-window_medium

Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

Ninth in the series, we look at the San Diego Padres. Ranked 2nd overall by John Sickels, they have 0 A-rated prospects, but they're stocked in terms of B-rated prospects with 15. In Keith Law's organizational rankings released yesterday, he has them at #1 overall. Here's what KLAW says:

Without Anthony Rizzo, they no longer have a top-25 prospect in their system, but in terms of total future value of players likely to play significant roles in the big leagues, they're ahead of everyone else. Some of these players, especially from the 2011 draft, will develop into stars. But there are so many prospects here with high floors, players who would be top-10 or top-five in other systems but are 11-20 here (such as Robbie Erlin or Edinson Rincon), that they are well-positioned to compete even with modest major league payrolls during the next five to six years. Fans who were upset at the sudden departures of GM Jed Hoyer and assistant GM Jason McLeod for the Cubs should find solace in the fact that the prospects they helped bring into the system (along with many other scouts and execs, including Chris Gwynn, now with Seattle, and Jaron Madison and Randy Smith, still in San Diego) remain in place.

With the Padres top-ranked system, how long is it going to take before it all clicks?

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A Graphic Look at the Window to Win: Cleveland Indians


Indians-window_medium

Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

Eighth in the series, we look at the Cleveland Indians. Ranked 27th overall by John Sickels, they have 0 A-rated prospects, 3 B-rated prospects, and 18 that are C-rated. Here's what Sickels says about their abundance of C-rated talent:

Indians fans may be discouraged by the large number of C+ grades, but they shouldn't be. While some of those C+s are future role players or relievers, the younger members of the group are high-ceiling guys who are just too raw or far away to get a higher grade just yet, but who could blossom within the next year or two. I'm thinking particularly of Araujo, Sterling, and the group of hitters who were backing them up in the Arizona Rookie League. The 2013 and 2014 lists could see a lot of those guys bumped up into the B-range (or maybe even higher) if they develop properly.

How does this system full of lower level talent affect their window to compete?

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The Players Who Have Hit 7th Most Often Since 1919

The past 2 weeks, I've looked at which players have started the most games in the 5th and 6th spots in the batting order. This week, the 7th spot gets its turn.

The graphic below features the players with the 10 most career starts in the 7th spot (in the boxscore era, which is since 1919) as well as the 10 players who started the highest percentage of games in that spot (minimum 400 starts hitting 7th). Most of the players listed are relatively unknown old-timers, but if you read the post on 6th-spot hitters, you should remember the #1 guy:

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That's right: Charlie Grimm, who has the most starts batting 6th since 1919, also has the most starts batting 7th. And in this case, it wasn't remotely close, as Grimm topped the runner-up total of Ken Reitz by nearly 200 starts. Despite having more starts hitting 7th than 6th, Grimm ranked only 15th on a percentage basis in the 7th spot (compared to his 8th ranking for the 6th spot).

Mike LaValliere comes in 2nd on the percentage list; what's interesting about that is that his counterpart on the early '90s Pirates, Don Slaught, just missed the top 10. Slaught ranks 12th with 49.8% of his starts in the 7th spot. Spanky and Sluggo: reunited at last!

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A Graphic Look at the Window to Win: Minnesota Twins


Twins-window_medium

Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

Seventh in the series, we look at the Minnesota Twins. Ranked 17th overall by John Sickels, they have 0 A-rated prospects, they have 12 B-rated prospects (most of them B-).

What does a middle-of-the-pack farm system mean in terms of affecting their window to compete?

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A Graphic Look at the Window to Win: Kansas City Royals


Royals-window_medium

Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

Sixth in the series, we look at the Kansas City Royals. Ranked 6th overall by John Sickels, they have 1 A-rated prospect in OF Wil Meyers, and a whopping 12 B-rated prospects. Looking at last years list from Sickels, it must be exciting to see two A-rated prospects in Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas producing early. Hosmer looked pretty dialed in last season, even outperforming Moustakas (Hosmer: wRC+ 114, Moustakas: wRC+ 85), but while two of their best prospects graduated from their systems, they remain pretty well stocked.

With their young studs, is their window open right now?

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The Players Who Have Hit 5th Most Often Since 1919

Last week, I delved into the history of the 6th spot in the batting order, finding the players who had hit there the most often in their careers. This week, I give the 5th spot the same treatment.

I used Baseball-Reference's Play Index to find the players who have had the most starts hitting 5th (appearances as a substitute don't count). The numbers only go back to 1919. I also found the players who started the highest percentage of games in the 5th spot (with minimum of 400 starts there).

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It's interesting to compare this graphic to the one for 6th hitters. For one thing, the hitters with the most starts hitting 5th are, by and large, better than the ones hitting 6th. This is not surprising, since with all else being equal, most managers will put the better hitter 5th rather than 6th. Still, it's nice to see some evidence to back up that idea.

The other major difference is that the 5th spot is clearly more well-defined than the 6th spot. This is evidenced by the higher totals and higher percentages for the 5th-place hitters. Whereas only 5 players had 700 or more starts in the 6th spot, 24 players had at least that many starts hitting 5th. Similarly, only 2 players had the majority of their career starts in the 6th spot, while 11 players (the ones listed above plus Mike Easler) topped 50% in the 5th spot.

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A Graphic Look at the Window to Win: Pittsburgh Pirates


Pirates-window_medium

Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

Fifth in the series, we look at the Pittsburgh Pirates. Ranked 12th overall by John Sickels, they have 2 A-rated prospects in RHP Gerrit Cole and RHP Jameson Taillon, and 5 B-rated prospects in OF Josh Bell, OF Robbie Grossman, RHP Luis Heredia, RHP Kyle McPherson, and RHP Nick Kingham. Quite impressive as a good portion of their current lineup consisted of top prospects from 2009, as show in Sickels 2009 list. They did a pretty good job at keeping their farm system fresh in their higher levels of the minors.

With the Pirates, the question is, do you think the window for them is sooner than later?

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A Graphic Look at the Window to Win: Chicago Cubs

Cubs_window_medium

Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

Fourth in this series, we look at the Chicago Cubs. Ranked 20th overall by John Sickels, they have 3 B-rated prospects in 1B Anthony Rizzo, OF Brett Jackson, and 1B Dan Vogelbach and 2 B-rated pitchers on their way (RHP Trey McNutt and RHP Dillon Maples).

With rebuilding the philosophy moving forward, when are the Cubs best set up to compete?

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