Events
New BTB Coming Soon
I know minimal about it, so read this, what I do know I can't say, but it's going to be...uh different but worth the new learning curve. Also just to give an idea of how long this change has been in the works - when I arrived at DRaysBay 17 months ago I was told they'd been working on it for a while, again that was in 2006. I understand you'll have to "claim" your account; I don't know much else about what that will require.
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An Interview with Paul DePodesta
Here's that interview I talked about a few weeks ago, I'd like to thank Paul for taking time out of his busy holiday and team schedule to answer some questions and note to owners; hire this guy as your next general manager, you won't regret it.
QUESTION: The question everyone wants to ask you, I'm sure; do you still carry the statistics filled computer with you?
DEPODESTA: I now use a Diffie-Hellman key exchange so that I don't have to walk around with it chained to my wrist anymore. The reality is that my use of a computer wasn't novel at the time, and there isn't a front office person, scout, or field staff who doesn't utilize a computer these days.
QUESTION: Not too long ago the new Pirates' general manager Neal Huntington did a Q&A session with MLB.com and answered a question about the metrics they use to judge players, I'd like to pose that same question to you: what are some of the statistics you to evaluate potential targets?
DEPODESTA: This reminds me of the old SNL skit with Phil Hartman playing then Secretary of Defense, Dick Cheney, holding a press conference. The questions posed about the Gulf War went something to the effect of: "When are we going to start the ground attack?" and "I understand there are passwords being used by our troops on the front lines. What are some examples of those?" I'm kidding of course, especially as it relates to the sensitivity of the material. That being said, we have a number of proprietary measures of performance that I'm not going to share.
QUESTION: What's the biggest difference between working with Billy Beane and working with Kevin Towers?
DEPODESTA: There are many more similarities than differences. Both are tireless, creative, enjoy their jobs and are determined to find a way to win. Most importantly, neither of them takes themselves too seriously.
QUESTION: Staying on Beane, what type of relationship do you two currently share, and how often do you communicate with each other?
DEPODESTA: Billy and I remain close. Though he provided me a startling opportunity and taught me an incredible amount, our friendship has never centered solely on baseball. Our relationship has always been more fraternal than professional, and I think that will always be the case.
QUESTION: Before you took the job in San Diego was there any discussion of you possibly rejoining the Athletics?
DEPODESTA: I had both professional and personal reasons for choosing to come here to San Diego. My wife and her family moved to San Diego from Mexico City years ago, and her family still lives here. Now that we have young kids, it was important for us to be around family.
QUESTION: In Moneyball it was exposed that you essentially "found" Kevin Youkilis, but the A's scouting department ignored him - do you ever wonder "what if?" and since are there any notable players that you've really wanted but missed out on through the draft or otherwise?
DEPODESTA: Though I appreciate the mention, I didn't "find" Kevin Youkilis. Our scouts wrote some very positive reports about him, even calling him "an A's type of player" as I recall. Michael Lewis chose him as a focal part of the story because he was representative of a philosophical debate. But make no mistake - our scouting department had not ignored him. As far as other notable players... there were more players whom I wanted who failed than the other way around. Predicting Major League success for amateur players is a tough, tough job, which is why we put so much effort into it every year.
QUESTION: A lot has been made - perhaps unnecessarily - about how the book essentially gave the entire world a look at how the organization pursued players; in hindsight do you regret doing the book at all?
DEPODESTA: Michael originally visited us in order to write a story for the New York Times Magazine. After the amateur draft he informed us that he was going to turn it into a book. We never offered, nor did Michael need, our consent. We really had no control over the matter. The reality is that the book didn't really expose our secrets. Most of what was described in the book had been well known within baseball circles.
QUESTION: One of the more talked about theories in Moneyball was how Beane liked having a manager who essentially had no real control outside of in-game strategy - I don't see Bud Black as fitting that mold - so I ask do you like that idea or did the Padres look for a more pro-active manager after Bochy left?
DEPODESTA: That's really a misperception. Billy always involved the staff in our player personnel decisions. Billy held the final say, as all General Managers should, just as the Manager should hold the final say when it comes to any and all on-field decisions. In both cases, it works best when all the parties involved are able to value the opinions of everyone else, and we certainly have that here in San Diego.
QUESTION: Your Padres traded Scott Linebrink for three arms mid-season, one of those was Joe Thatcher - just two years ago he was pitching in the Frontier League - what did scouts see in him that made him attractive to you, and do you think he's more than just a LOOGY?
DEPODESTA: We thought Joe could potentially help us down the stretch as well as for many years going forward. He had been effective at every level, and we believed his deception had a good chance to continue to play well at the ML level. Obviously, we were thrilled with his performance.
QUESTION: What type of advantage does playing in a park like PETCO have in terms of being able to approach the free agent or trade market and not being overly concerned about getting top talent necessarily?
DEPODESTA: I don't know that our park allows us to compete without talented players. Our park, like many others, has nuances that we can try to exploit. That being said, we only play half of our games in Petco, so it's not as if we can afford to build a team that can only be successful in Petco. Guys like Jake Peavy and Chris Young have been incredibly successful away from Petco simply because they're terrific pitchers.
QUESTION: I understand that the Jack Cust deal was actually consummated through e-mail, now excuse my ignorance, but I was under the impression that most deals were done via phone; can you take us through the process of how a trade is made, from negotiating to announcing the deal?
DEPODESTA: Every deal is different, and it depends on the parties involved. There are numerous close relationships between people in Oakland and people in San Diego, so that type of deal would be easier to begin, negotiate, or end via email. As I recall, though, there were definitely some phone conversations that took place as well. It is not unusual, though, for a GM to start a discussion via an idea email to another GM.
QUESTION: One of the players the Padres selected in the Rule 5 draft was Callix Crabbe - a second baseman / outfielder from the Brewers' organization - to me, he's what people commonly refer to as a "Moneyball" player, or at least the types that were undervalued at the time of the publication - do you still look for that specific player who fits the old model?
DEPODESTA: My definition of a "Moneyball" player is much different than the common usage. I don't see it as having anything to do with walks or on-base percentage or really any statistic. To me that really misses the point. A "Moneyball" player is an undervalued player for any reason whatsoever. So, yes, we still look for undervalued players. However, there isn't a universal scale of value in baseball, as no player holds precisely the same value for all 30 clubs. Often times "undervalued" simply means finding players who may have more value for us than they would for the player's current team. It doesn't imply that the current team has somehow overlooked the value of the player. That other team has a different composition of personnel and under that composition the player doesn't have as much value as he would have in our composition. We're all trying to manage portfolios of players that need to be somewhat balanced across various attributes as well as between short-term and long-term goals.
QUESTION: Along those same lines, a lot was made of the Kevin Kouzmanoff deal, people called him a Beane player - I suppose a DePo player would be more like it - how big of a factor were you in pursuing him, and do you think he can stick at third?
DEPODESTA: He fits my definition of a "Moneyball" player much more neatly that the accepted definition. Kouzmanoff has never been a huge walk guy or on-base specialist, but Cleveland had significant depth at 3B, and we were thin comparatively at the time at that position. In short, the Indians knew full well what Kouz could do, but he had more value to us. There is no doubt in my mind that he'll stay at 3B. I think he surprised a lot of people with his defensive capabilities, and he'll only continue to get better.
QUESTION: As a Rays' fan, I've seen my share of talented players with attitude and character issues - and we've seen Milton Bradley with both the A's and Pads, so I ask how much does make-up play into the scouting process and overall desirability of acquiring players?
DEPODESTA: I think makeup is critical. This game is a grind, and consequently it takes tremendous mental toughness to succeed. Makeup is often what separates the Championship players from the rest of the pack. Nobody on talent alone is a Championship player. The chemistry element, which I think you're hinting at, is much trickier. I don't know that anyone has figured out the alchemy involved there. I don't think many people would doubt its' importance, but I for one question our ability to manufacture it. You're talking about very complex interactions.
QUESTION: Another Rays' related question - I believe it was in June when the two teams were playing a story came out about Heath Bell. Basically the Rays and Padres both wanted him from the Mets and naturally he landed with the Pads and has been very good, but the peculiar part was Towers stating - and I'm paraphrasing here - in an article something along the lines of "You guys have more prospects, if you wanted him you could've had him." That was the first time I've heard a general manager be so blunt I suppose, isn't there a fear at times about giving sound bytes and potentially losing future trading partners?
DEPODESTA: I'm not sure there is a GM with better relationships around the game than KT, and it certainly is important. I think everyone in those positions knows about the danger of sound bytes, and I'm sure it's happened to every single GM in the game at some point or another.
QUESTION: How does it feel to be basically a trailblazer in the world of baseball, consider a generation is coming into the game with your name and personality infused in their minds as to what an executive is supposed to be?
DEPODESTA: I doubt that is really the case. And if they're going by what they've read, they really don't know my personality at all. One thing that probably gets lost is how important it is to see players. My first three years in Cleveland were spent charting games, pitch-by-pitch, and writing reports on players. I charted over 1,000 games in those early years and written countless reports, and a lot of that time was spent learning alongside veteran baseball people like Dom Chiti, Grady Fuson, JP Ricciardi, Roy Smith, Bob Johnson, and many others.
QUESTION: Paul, you're one of the most successful men around, you have two kids and a wife, and essentially a great job - what's left for you to accomplish?
DEPODESTA: Our third child is due in April, so my wife and I need to learn how to play zone... Seriously, we're far, far away from figuring this game out, so there's still a lot of learning to do. And, I'd like to win a ring one of these days.
Thanks a ton Paul, one of baseball's best and brightest and I wish him and the best of luck for the upcoming season.
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Rule 5 Statistical Preview
Being a Rays fan I've become accustomed to - of all things - looking forward to the Rule 5 draft - even after the Josh Hamilton incident and disappointingly selling away our first pick last year. This year it appears the Rays will take Indians outfielder Brian Barton first overall, and while doing some research on him I ran across this article from Baseball America that basically runs down the top 25 or so eligible players for this week's draft. I took it upon myself to create a spreadsheet for hitters and pitchers and do some averaging out to see which players are the cream of the crop of the class, with that in mind here's the visual proof:


Barton has the highest OPS of any of the hitters, and seems like the closest to being ready for major league action - boding well for his chances of being taken first overall. Whitney is interesting because despite his low average homerun totals he jacked 32 between two levels last year. D'Antona could probably be a servicable player off of a major league bench. Valbuena has a good glove, and last season had a very nice offensive season, the problem is judging whether that was an anomaly or the beginning.
As for pitchers Guevara screams middle reliever - per BA he throws a screwball and per his numbers doesn't walk too many. Pino is the other interesting pitcher for me, he's one of those "results" guys who doesn't have anything that screams he'll be successful other than his minor league numbers.
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BTB Awards Week 25
Program Note
Next week's Awards will be late, probably Wednesday due to my having a 4 day weekend in Michigan, coming back late on Monday. It will be the year-end extravaganza with official season awards being handed out.
If you are new to the awards, see Week 1's column to see the award definitions.
This Week's Proof That Assigning Wins and Losses to a Pitcher is a Silly Practice that Must Stop
Bad Luck Division
This one comes courtesy of Peter Sherwood, who points out that Adam Wainwright did everything in his power to win on Wednesday, giving the Cards 8 innings of one run ball. He even drove in one of the two St Louis runs on the day but he walked away with a no decision because of the comically bad lineup they threw out there with Scott Spiezio batting cleanup and Miguel Cairo and Skip Schumaker following him. There was no Albert Pujols to be found and Wainwright was doomed from the start.
Good Luck Division
On Saturday, Radhames Liz and Edison Volquez combined for 11 runs in 8 and a third and both came away with no decisions because neither team could get anybody out. The loss ended up going to Wes Littleton, who allowed 4 in an inning and a third of relief.
Vulture Division
Here's another one courtesy of Mr Sherwood. Brad Lidge (also on Wednesday) blew a two run lead in the ninth, but Matt Wise of the Brewers gifted him a W by allowing a run in the bottom of the 10th.
Holds Suck Too
Friday night, Leo Nunez got both a blown save and a hold in the same game.
The Wes Littleton They Call that a Save? Award
It demonstrates the ridiculousness of the save rule as it is currently constructed, but I also have something to compliment here. On Sunday night, Raphael Betancourt came into the game for the Indians in the 8th inning with two on and two out and got Nick Swisher to strike out before pitching a perfect 9th for a 4 run save. Now I don't think that should be counted as a save, but I do appreciate the fact that the Indians didn't use their regular "closer" Joe Borowski in the situation. I put closer in quotes because Betancourt is three times the pitcher that Borowski could ever think about being. Borowski, with 43 saves, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 4.96, is living proof that you don't really have to be special to post special save totals. The Indians have done a good job this season of assigning higher leverage situations to Betancourt, who has been dominating
The Rico Brogna Award
Melky Cabrera drove in 8 runs in 21 at bats despite hitting a limp .238/.292/.238
Season to Date: Jeff Francoeur is now over the Joe Carter line at 101 RBI on the year. Nevertheless, he's only hitting .290/.335/.432 as a starting right fielder.
PS, I feel bad about not saying this earlier, but thank you Mike. The world needs to hear the truth.
The Harmon Killebrew Batting Average is for Wussies Award
Jack Cust is just going to alternate weeks where he wins this award and the Balboni and I think he'll be alright with that. He posted a pedestrian .238, but 7 walks and 3 home runs in 21 at bats gets you to 1.143 OPS.
Season as a whole: Adam Dunn is hitting .264, but with 101 walks and 40 home runs for a 940 OPS.
The Rey Sanchez Batting Average is all I've Got Award
Michael Young hit .300 on the week, but went without an extra base hit for a .300/.323/.300 line. His slugging is down to .413 on the season, his worst since his pre-breakout .262/.308/.382 in '02.
Season: Delmon Young is going to win this thing with his .294/.322/.418 line. He's coming close to giving Francoeur some competition with his 93 RBI.
The Steve Balboni Award
Jayson Werth smoked a pair of triples, a home run, he drew 5 walks, and was 2 for 2 stealing bases, but his 13 strikeouts led the Majors, bringing him down to .179/.303/.429.
Leader: Jonny Gomes only has 335 AB this season, but he has 118 K's, contributing to his .248/.322/.460 season. 19 doubles, 16 homers, and 31 walks are nice, but the strikeouts erode the batting average enough to make him a marginal value this season.
3 True Outcomes Alert!!!
Ryan Howard outdid himself. 36 plate appearances, 4 home runs, 12 walks, 11 K.
Leader: Howard has put some distance between himself and the pack. 42 HR, 103 BB, and 195 K in 623 PA.
This Week's Completely Made Up Award
The Fugly Award goes to these awful, ugly uniforms. Please look at these uniforms before you okay them for "throwback" specials.
This Week's MVP
AL: Josh Fields was out of his mind this week, hitting .524/.615/1.190. He collected 3 doubles, a triple, three home runs, and five walks in 21 at bats.
Season: ARod update: .310/.416/.637, 52 HR, 90 BB
NL: I mentioned Ryan Howard before. The Burly One Pwned the week with a .348/.583/.913 line.
Season: David Wright remains the choice at .321/.414/.551. He now has 71 extra base hits and 91 walks.
Here's Where You Come In
I need your help. Please drop me a line nominate players for awards maybe entire team for awards. Make up your own award. Point out something stupid that your local color commentator said during a recent game. I can only watch so much baseball in a week, even with the miracle of MLB.TV. I have to use you as a crutch.
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BTB Awards Week 24
It's week 24 already?
If you are new to the awards, see Week 1's column to see the award definitions.
This Week's Proof That Assigning Wins and Losses to a Pitcher is a Silly Practice that Must Stop
Bad Luck Division
Curt Schilling has had a tough time of things recently. He hasn't pitched as well as we're used to. On Monday night he allowed 1 run in 6 innings, but got the loss because Scott Kazmir and a pair of relievers shut out the powerful BoSox offense.
Good Luck Division
Kelvim Escobar had none of Schill's bad luck as he allowed 6 runs in 5 and a third against the Orioles. He got bailed out by Daniel Cabrera, who allowed 10 and 3 O's relievers, who allowed 2+ runs each. As long as he reached 5 innings, there was pretty much no way that Escobar could blow that lead.
Vulture Division
On Tuesday night, Matt Lindstrom of the Marlins allowed Ryan Zimmerman to score on a Dmitri Young double in the 7th, tying the game. The Fish promptly tallied 3 runs in the next frame and Lindstrom got the W.
The Wes Littleton They Call that a Save? Award
Takashi Saito had 3 run saves on two consecutive nights. On Thursday, he faced the Padres with Marcus Giles, Mike Cameron, and Adrian Gonzalez scheduled up and on Friday it was Jeff Salazar, Emiliano Bonifacio, and Justin Upton. One inning, 3 run saves are a horrific waste of a pitcher as good as Saito, especially when you're facing batters like Salazar and Bonifacio.
The Rico Brogna Award
Pudge Rodriguez drove in 6 runs in 19 at bats on the week, but hit a meager .263/.286/.368.
Season to Date:
Raul Ibanez has 95 RBI in his 524 at bats, but is at best an average left fielder at .282/.343/.462.
The Harmon Killebrew Batting Average is for Wussies Award
Mark Reynolds of the Snakes hit .211, but secondary skills were at play and his line ended up being .211/.400/.526.
Season as a whole: Jim Thome deserves some credit in this lost season for the White Sox. He's hitting .268, but with 87 walks and 28 home runs he's sporting a .402 OBP and a .520 SLG.
The Rey Sanchez Batting Average is all I've Got Award
Delmon Young hit .300/.323/.367. Drawing walks has been a problem all season and he hasn't hit for nearly the kind of power anybody expected of him. Things will improve next year, but you have to hope that he learns that he doesn't have to swing at everything white that floats by him.
Season: Pudge Rodriguez with his .282/.296/.427 line. He has 468 at bats and 9 walks.
The Steve Balboni Award
Ryan Howard demonstrated some secondary skills with his two doubles, one home run, and four walks in 28 at bats, but his 11 K's killed his week at .179/.281/.357.
Leader: Josh Fields has the classic Balboni skill set with 19 home runs in 332 at bats, a fair 25 walks, and an ugly 114 whiffs. All of that combines for a .232/.285/.446 line.
3 True Outcomes Alert!!!
I mentioned Mark Reynolds in the `Brew Award. He hit a pair of home runs, drew six free passes, and struck out 6 times in 25 plate appearances.
Leader: Ryan Howard leads baseball with 184 K's, is 5th in homers with 38, and is 11th in walks with 91.
This Week's Dumbest Thing Ever
I remember seeing the Kansas City Chiefs getting flagged for 2 illegal blocks in the back and a hold on the same kickoff return and still not manage to get the ball across their own 20 yard line this Sunday.
But really there was no contest. This kind of ineptitude is really one in a million.
This Week's Completely Made Up Award
I've been asked to talk about the Mariners abrupt fall from contention. The thing is, it's a truly remarkable thing to behold, but I don't have an awful lot to say about it. They were dramatically overachieving. When you look at their batting and pitching numbers, it's hard to believe that they were relevant in the race for the playoffs. When you give the roster the eyeball test, it's hard to believe that they were relevant in the race for the playoffs. They really didn't belong in the first place and they're about where I thought they'd be when the season started. Count me in as a believer in the theory that a premium relief ace like JJ Putz can help a team with unremarkable runs scored/runs allowed figures to overachieve, but it doesn't make a 75ish win team into an 88ish win team.
I find it also remarkable that the Cardinals have followed them on the spiral staircase out of the playoff race and they too had no business ever entertaining the notion of being a playoff team. There are too many gaping holes in that roster with the old guard of Rolen and Edmonds decaying, a rotation that is currently anchored by two guys I figured would be decent middle relievers.
This Week's MVP
AL: David Ortiz hit .450/.577/1.000 with 5 extra base hits and 6 walks in 26 plate appearances.
Season: Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez
NL: Matt Holliday hit .407/.500/1.148 with 6 homers on the week. I really didn't buy into the purported Holliday dark horse MVP candidacy until recently because of the Coors Field effect. However, with a .334/.396/.594 line and a lack of any candidates running away from the pack the way that ARod is doing in the AL, he might just be a valid option for voters. He's certainly in the pack.
Season: Speaking of the pack, I still think that David Wright leads that pack with his .313/.411/.547 line and excellent third base glove. But it's a shame that Chase Utley missed that month with a broken hand because he likely would have run away with this thing. Utley is hitting .333/.414/.565, but in 476 at bats against Wright's 543 at bats. With his above average glove at a premium defensive position AND a bat like that, he's an insanely valuable player. His VORP of 62.9 is right there in that pack behind Wright (69.7) with Pujols, Holliday, Fielder (63.4, 64.0, 63.1) and a few others.
Here's Where You Come In
I need your help. Please drop me a line nominate players for awards maybe entire team for awards. Make up your own award. Point out something stupid that your local color commentator said during a recent game. I can only watch so much baseball in a week, even with the miracle of MLB.TV. I have to use you as a crutch.
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BTB Awards Week 23
Pardon me if this is a bit short and poorly written this week. I feel like crap after I tweaked a hamstring working out this weekend and had an unfortunate dentist appointment this afternoon.
If you are new to the awards, see Week 1's column to see the award definitions.
This Week's Proof That Assigning Wins and Losses to a Pitcher is a Silly Practice that Must Stop
Bad Luck Division
Gavin Floyd and Kenny Rogers combined for 11 innings of work where they allowed 2 earned runs, 8 hits, 4 walks, and struck out 12. No decision for either of them.
Also, John Lackey on Friday spun a marvelous 7 innings of work against the Indians, with 1 run, 6 hits, a walk, and 6 K's. He walked away with a no decision because Francisco Rodriguez blew the lead.
Good Luck Division
Don't tell Matt Cain about this because he may go and stab Ray Durham, but Daisuke Matsuzaka allowed 7 runs in 5 and a third on Monday against the Blue Jays but he still got the W.
Similarly Felix Hernandez got the golden W despite allowing 7 runs of his own in 5 innings on Sunday because Jeremy Bombedagain got lit up. It must be nice to get that kind of run support.
Vulture Division
After Brad Hennessey let a 1 run lead vanish with a James Loney solo shot, Dan Ortmeier went yard off of Jonathan Broxton to give Hennessey a completely undeserved W. When that happens, does the pitcher buy the rookie first baseman a steak dinner or something?
Reader Peter Sherwood mentions that on Thursday, Kelvin Jimenez threw all of 7 pitches...in the second inning of a 2-2 game and walked away with a win. Granted it was kind of a tight spot with the bases loaded and Jason Bay at the plate, but it was 7 pitches in the second inning for chrissake.
The Wes Littleton They Call that a Save? Award
Thank you to Jeremiah M for the submission on the new name. It's a winner since I poked fun at Littleton's cheapest of all cheap saves in the Rangers 30-3 win a few weeks ago.
On Sunday, we had four 3 run, 3 out saves. Chad Cordero, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, and Billy Wagner all got the glory for something that an inferior pitcher should have been doing.
The Rico Brogna Award
Mike Lowell collected 6 RBI but hit a meager .222/.323/.333 on the week.
Season to Date: Jeff Francoeur with 91 RBI, but he's a right fielder hitting .294/.337/.443.
The Harmon Killebrew Batting Average is for Wussies Award
Rick Ankiel hit .261, but with a pair of doubles, 3 home runs, and 4 walks. This led to a .370 OBP and .739 SLG. And no, I'm not going to mention the HGH.
Season as a whole: Adam LaRoche had an extremely rough start in 2007, but he fought his way through it. His BA is still a little pedestrian at .269, but he has 56 walks and 21 home runs, which gives him a line of .269/.342/.460, which isn't spectacular by any stretch of the imagination, but it's not too bad.
The Rey Sanchez Batting Average is all I've Got Award
Casey Blake isn't a usual suspect for this award as his biggest asset rather than batting average, but hitting .292 with a pair of doubles and one walk in 24 at bats gets you to .292/.320/.375 and that gets you a Sanchez Award.
Season: We're still going with Delmon Young, who is hitting .293/.322/.416 as a starting right fielder. But let's give an honorable mention to Jose Vidro, who is hitting .313 and drawing walks with his .379 OBP, but he has 6 home runs all year and is the primary DH for the Mariners. He's slugging .393. That's an isolated slugging percentage of .080.
The Steve Balboni Award
Ryan Howard and Jonny Gomes share the award this week. Howard went .105/.261/.263 weighted down by 8 K's in 19 AB while Gomes went .188/.316/.375 with 7 K in 16 AB. They both did other things right. They both hit a home run and Howard drew 4 walks, Gomes 3. But you have to make at least some contact.
Leader: Josh Fields might be running away with this thing, hitting .234/.288/.446. He has power to spare with 18 homers in 316 at bats, but he's struck out 108 times.
3 True Outcomes Alert!!!
Rickie Weeks had 16 at bats and a pair of home runs, 9 walks, and 8 homers.
Leader: Ryan Howard with 38 HR, 87 BB, 175 K in 560 plate appearances.
This Week's Completely Made Up Award
I talked about Clay Buchholz's no hitter last week. But the thing that has to terrify the rest of baseball is the idea that the Red Sox and Yankees are trying out youth movements right now. For years they've been justifiably painted (especially the Yanks) as a collection of mercenaries. The organizations have epitomized big dumb money, once again especially the Yankees. But after producing some valuable commodities like Jon Papelbon, Melky Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Kevin Youkilis, Chien-Ming Wang, they've brought up Dustin Pedroia, Phillip Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Buchholz. It was one thing for the Yanks and BoSox to have more money than God when they blew a lot of it on flukes like Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano and the decline phases of Jason Giambi. But brains and money is an infinitely more dangerous combination. It's a completely different thing if they use that money more wisely by dumping a significant amount into the farm system and work the best talents from that system into the team.
This all being said, caveats about here. Even smart teams with good farm systems have uneven results, often going through droughts and deluges. And even those good organizations run into traps where they are prone to falling in love with particular players that they've produced, overlooking weaknesses. The Yanks have been masters at overlooking weaknesses, especially defensively where they stuck with Bernie Williams in center well past his expiration date.
It also bears mentioning that recently found wisdom didn't prevent the guys from the Bronx from paying way too much for Johnny Damon declining bat and glove or for Kei Igawa's overrated stuff or the Red Sox from making mistakes with Julio Lugo and JD Drew. And for all of the compliments I'm paying here to the Red Sox and Yankees farm systems, I still hated the idea of Andrew Brackman. It's certainly possible that this isn't a recognition of how to prevent errors of the past (A.K.A. throw money at it) but rather an extension of the big, dumb money strategy into the farm system coupled with an arrogance that will undermine these efforts in the long run. But if it is a genuine change in strategy towards actually listening to their scouts and trusting younger players instead of reflexively trading them and trying to build squads of 25 mercenaries, then they will go a long way towards accomplishing that state of perpetual competition for the top spot and prevent the kind of organizational collapses that led to the Yankee and Red Sox teams of the early 90's.
This Week's MVP
AL: ARod hit .565/.630/1.478 with 7 bombs, 3 walks, and 4 K in 23 AB. That's amazing
Season: ARod's MVP week has his season stats up to .318/.424/.672. It put him up over 50 home runs and up to 82 walks. He's even 22 for 25 stealing bases, which has made at least one of my fantasy league teams very happy.
NL: Where did this come from? Jack Wilson hit .615/.621/.077 with 6 doubles, 2 home runs, 2 walks, and 2 K. Unbelievably he's hitting .349/.401/.534 since the All Star break.
Season: ARod's crosstown rival at third base, David Wright is having an MVP caliber season of his own with a .315/.410/.539 line. He's doing this in Shea Stadium which is no mean feat and he has a pretty good glove. He's carrying 34 doubles, 27 homers, 84 walks, and he's stolen 30 bases, only getting caught 4 times.
Here's Where You Come In
I need your help. Please drop me a line nominate players for awards maybe entire team for awards. Make up your own award. Point out something stupid that your local color commentator said during a recent game. I can only watch so much baseball in a week, even with the miracle of MLB.TV. I have to use you as a crutch.
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BTB Awards Week 22
If you are new to the awards, see Week 1's column to see the award definitions.
This Week's Proof That Assigning Wins and Losses to a Pitcher is a Silly Practice that Must Stop
Bad Luck Division
Greg Maddux and Micah Owings had a nice duel going on Wednesday. They combined for 14 innings of 11 hit ball, allowing only 2 runs and only one walk. They got matching no decisions for their trouble.
Good Luck Division
Scott Kazmir had run support that Owings and Maddux could only dream about on Thursday. He let 5 Orioles score (remember that this is the same squad that got no-hit this week...more on that in a moment) in 5 innings, but he got the W because Jeremy Guthrie got absolutely blitzed for 6 runs in 6 frames.
Vulture Division
Huston Street blew a 2 run lead on Friday night against the Tigers, but Joel Zumaya bailed him out by allowing a run of his own.
They Call that a Save?
Brad Hennessey of the Giants got the 3 run, 1 inning save against the Rox on Monday. Even with Todd Helton and Garrett Atkins coming up at the top of the 9th, there still wasn't much of a danger to "save" the boys by the bay from. He only contributed 3.8% to the Giants win probability that night, but he still gets the big S next to his name.
As an aside, what was Yorvit Torrealba doing batting 6th, ahead of Brad Hawpe? What kind of insanity is that anyways?
Oh, also I'm looking for a better name for this award. If you have a suggestion, contact me.
The Rico Brogna Award
Tori Hunter drove in 5 despite hitting a measly .148/.172/.296.
Season to Date: Garrett Atkins has 95 RBI on the season, good for 15th in the Majors. He's hitting .281/.348/.466, which isn't bad, but for a third baseman playing in Coors (which has returned to being a friendly place for hitters), it isn't great either. It's about average. This is what happens when you spend all season batting behind Matt Holiday's .397 OBP and Todd Helton's .424.
The Harmon Killebrew Batting Average is for Wussies Award
Kevin Youkilis had this great line: .235/.500/.588 this week. That's what a couple of home runs and seven walks will do for you.
Season as a whole: Pat Burrell is up to .262/.401/.504.
The Rey Sanchez Batting Average is all I've Got Award
Juan Pierre is one of my favorite targets. His tendency to hit the way he did this week, with a .308/.308/.346 line is the primary reason why.
Season: Delmon Young won last week and at .296/.326/.412, he still has a nice little margin built up. But let's take a moment to appreciate the brilliance of Sean Casey's .283/.339/.378 and Shannon Stewart's .283/.345/.385.
The Steve Balboni Award
Akinori Iwamura hit a pair of doubles, a triple, a home run, and he drew 4 walks in 27 at bats, but his 10 K's doomed his batting average, leading to a .185/.281/.444 week.
Leader: Brandon Inge is another repeat winner with his 137K and .234/.314/.376 season. But also worth mentioning is Bill Hall, who has always been a serious free swinger, but his 107 whiffs in 403 at bats has dragged him down to .258/.320/.432, which would be disappointing but not a killer if he was still playing primarily second and short. But when he's taking up an outfield spot, which just isn't acceptable.
3 True Outcomes Alert!!!
Carlos Pena homered 4 times, walked 8 times, and struck out 7 times in 36 plate appearances.
Leader: Ryan Howard hasn't run away with it, but he's been on top of the charts for quite some time now as he's tied for second in the NL in HR with 36, tied for 5th in walks with 83, and leading the Senior Circuit in K with 165.
This Week's Completely Made Up Award
In lieu of an actual award, I'm taking the opportunity for some commentary on Clay Buchholz's no hitter. It was a very well pitched game, but there were some things in here to keep in mind. First, while this game ranks very high among the best pitched games of the season, it only ranks 5th best in game score at 93. It is tied with Scott Baker's 1 hitter from the day before. As an aside, the best game score of the year doesn't actually belong to any of the three no-no's that we've seen or Johan Santana's brilliant 17 K gem against the Rangers. It's Erik Bedard's 15K shutout of the Rangers on July 7th, which garnered a 98.
The other thing to think about is that this was a lineup that was vulnerable to this kind of thing. Let's run down the order.
2B Brian Roberts, who is a good hitter, hitting .304/.392/.453 on the season, but he bat .257/.351/.398 in August.
CF Corey Patterson has no business as a starting outfielder, hitting an anemic .272/.308/.387 on the season. Could somebody tell me what he was doing batting second? It will be interesting to see where he latches on in the off season. With speed and defense, he could be very interesting for some teams, but they need to minimize the damage he does with his weak bat.
SS Nick Markakis is hitting .294/.360/.467 in 523 at bats in 2007. No argument here, but he's solid, not spectacular and not my idea of a #3 hitter.
SS Miguel Tejada is hitting .306/.363/.471. He was the most likely one to get a hit, but everybody has some oh-fers.
DH Kevin Millar: .261/.373/.430. He's drawn some walks this season, but at this point in his career that's just about all he has and that's not a ringing endorsement for a DH.
1B Aubrey Huff: If you hadn't noticed by now, this piece could alternately be named "Why the Orioles Are Where They Are". Huff was one of the Orioles key acquisitions and he's hitting .271/.320/.435.
3B Scott Moore was playing his first ML game this season after hitting .265/.373/.526 in Des Moines. Now I like the trade that the Orioles made to get him, giving up Steve Trachsel for Moore and another player. He'll be an asset to the club with his lefty pop. I think he could be one of the better "4 corners" supersubs in the game. But his weaknesses, mostly contact and the associated batting average issues, perfectly align with being no-hit.
C JR House only had 15 ML at bats on the season for Baltimore and he had hit .200/.250/.400, but that's not statistically significant. He hit .298/.365/.463 for Norfolk in a much more robust 419 at bats. Actually, I like him too as a pinch hitter, backup catcher, and backup first baseman/DH. But this is another backup level bat.
LF Jay Payton: I'm kind of stunned that he can still buy his way onto a ML roster, let alone have a team voluntarily pay him to play. At least the Orioles had the smarts to bat a guy who is sporting a .259/.298/.368 line 9th in the order.
To review, that's a lineup that isn't really going to threaten many good pitchers. You're immediately forfeiting two spots in the lineup by playing Patterson and Payton. Huff and Millar are well past their sell by date. Markakis is a good young player that I like and he makes for a solid start to a lineup with Tejada and Roberts, but three guys does not a lineup make. I like Moore and House going forward, but more in the way that I'm looking forward to seeing how a good, smart manager can put them to good use rather than waiting to see what they can do with 500 at bats in a season.
This Week's Dumbest Thing Ever
There were no shortages of candidates in this race. The world abounds with people and events that qualify. Adam Dunn missed third base on his way home, costing his team in a situation where they would have been assured to have scored at least two runs, and maybe would have scored more as it would have been 2 on, 2 out. Joey Gathright attempted to bunt in the first inning of a game against the Tigers even though Andrew Miller had allowed the first 7 hitters in the game to reach base, and managed to strike out after he was unsuccessful with the bunt. But having watched my friend Jeff Sullivan's descent into madness during the Mariners recent losing streak, I thought it might be an appropriate occasion to give him the floor and let him get some things off his chest. So I asked him if he would like to have the floor for a minute. In the first ever guest spot on the Weekly Awards, here's Jeff's nomination of John McLaren for Dumbest Thing Ever.
A lot of new managers are given a little grace period during which they're free from criticism while they familiarize themselves with their job and their players. For John McLaren, though, a dugout veteran of more than 20 years, there is no excusing the mess he's made of the Mariners' recent losing streak.
Now, I'm not going to sit here and blame McLaren for the skid. More than anything else, it's the players who have to perform up to their abilities. But John McLaren did not handle the whole thing very well, and it all kind of boiled over in last Thursday's latest Cleveland makeup game. Let's recap:
-Started Jose Vidro - arguably the worst defensive infielder in baseball - instead of Jose Lopez or Willie Bloomquist at second base with groundballer Horacio Ramirez on the mound
-Batted Raul Ibanez cleanup against a left-handed starter
-With men on first and second with none out in the ninth inning of a one-run game against Joe Borowski, had Adam Jones bunt on a 3-1 count
-Relieved Eric O'Flaherty with two on and one out in the bottom of the ninth with Rick White, even though JJ Putz hadn't pitched since the 24th
Put all these things together and you've got yourself a 6-5 loss and a six-game losing streak. During those six games, Putz made zero appearances, while White made four - in a tie game against Texas, in a one-run game against Los Angeles, in a tie game against Cleveland, and in a blowout. Three high-leverage appearances given to a 38 year old nobody who couldn't even get hitters out in Houston before getting released. White was predictably terrible, and it cost the team severely. That's what happens when you make far and away the worst pitcher in your bullpen throw important pitches.
It's like the team didn't learn at all from the failed John Parrish experiment before. For whatever reason McLaren falls in love with crappy veterans who've "been through wars", and for whatever reason Bill Bavasi allows him to indulge in his weird little fantasies rather than build the idiot-proof bullpen we thought we had before. It's a dangerous combination, and God only knows how much it's already cost us.
John McLaren doesn't know anything about groundball/flyball profiles, he doesn't know anything about platoon splits, he doesn't know anything about when to yank certain pitchers, and he doesn't know anything about how to run a Major League bullpen. The sabermetric principle that field managers have little impact on a team's final record falls short here, because McLaren occupies his own little world of stupid, and with more than 20 years' dugout experience under his belt, it's hard to see him evolving in the role. John McLaren: major tool. That the Mariners are somehow still in playoff contention is nothing short of a Christmas miracle.
This Week's MVP
AL: It's a tough choice between Carlos Pena, who smacked 4 long balls and drew 8 walks in his .296/.444/.852 week and Curtis Granderson, who hit a pair of bombs to go with 4 doubles and a steal in going .531/.519/.923. I think I'll go with Pena because he had an extra 9 plate appearances for his rate stats.
Season: Alex Alowishus Devadander Abercrombie Rodriguez.
NL: Jimmy Rollins had the best week in baseball, going .515/.556/.909. He was the ultimate stat sheet stuffer with a pair of doubles, a triple, three homers, three steals (caught once), and three walks. It bears mentioning that I never saw this mid-career power spike coming. There was no warning. He had hit 14 home runs in 2001 and 2004, but he hit 25 last season and he has 25 right now. He went from having a career high in isolated slugging of .166 to going for .201 last season and .237 this season. He's hitting .299/.350/.536 and he's become quite a valuable little player, more than making his 5 year, $40 million contract a bargain. There were some doubts about giving that much money over that amount of time to him.
Season: Jake Peavy spun a pair of spectacular starts this week, combining for 14 innings of 1 run baseball, allowing only 5 HITS, striking out 19, walking 4. That brought his ERA down to its current 2.10. It's certainly aided by his home park, but an ERA+ of 196 is hard to mitigate through park effects alone. Batters are now hitting an impotent .202/.268/.282 against him. That's simply insane.
Here's Where You Come In
I need your help. Please drop me a line nominate players for awards maybe entire team for awards. Make up your own award. Point out something stupid that your local color commentator said during a recent game. I can only watch so much baseball in a week, even with the miracle of MLB.TV. I have to use you as a crutch.
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BTB Awards Week 21
Welcome to the only corner of the American sports landscape where you won't hear about a certain guy who used to wear shoulder pads on Sunday and just admitted to doing something very, very bad. That's right, no coverage of that one guy, what's his name? Something like Hans Laos, or Jim Nigeria, maybe it was Eddie Chile. Whatever his name is, we here at the weekly awards love dogs, except for that one that lives one block west and one block north of the Weekly Awards headquarters, the one we've nicknamed Snarls Barkley. We just wish he'd shut up. But all of the other dogs are cool. Good doggy. That's right, goooood doggy.
If you are new to the awards, see Week 1's column to see the award definitions.
This Week's Proof That Assigning Wins and Losses to a Pitcher is a Silly Practice that Must Stop
Bad Luck Division
On Thursday, Jake Westbrook and Nate Robinson combined for 16 2/3 innings of shutout ball, allowing only 9 hits and 2 walks in that time. They got matching no decisions and the win went to Rafael Perez, who threw a grand total of 6 pitches.
If you're looking for an actual loss, the go to Westbrook's teammate Fausto Carmona, who took the L on Tuesday despite giving the Indians a complete game, allowing only 2 runs on 3 hits and no walks. A pair of solo home runs were hit undoing and rookie Jair Jurrjens got the win.
Good Luck Division
On Friday, Andrew Miller and Roger Clemens both got bombed, Miller allowing 6 runs in 4 and a third and Clemens getting shelled for 6 runs in 5 frames. Both escaped with no decisions, spared the indignity of being the pitcher who killed their team in a very important game.
Special Recognition for Good Luck
I hadn't planned on recognizing season pitching awards this week, as I usually leave those for every few weeks. But I got an email from an anonymous reader pointing me to Claudio Vargas, who has a ridiculous 10-4 record despite a 1.56 WHIP and 5.13 ERA. But do you know what? I think it goes beyond this year. Digging into the numbers, he hasn't had a sub-.500 season he was a rookie in 2003, and even then it was a comparatively tame 6-8. He has a career 42-36 record in 657 innings. This despite a career whip of 1.46 and an ERA of 4.96. Batters this season are hitting a combined .287/.352/.482 against him. Career, it's .273/.343/.483. For context, the average NL hitter is batting .264/.332/.418. Yet here he is, standing among baseball's leaders in win percentage.
Vulture Division
In Thursday night's Padres/Mets matchup, Billy Wagner entered the game with his Mets up 7-6. He gave up 2 runs, handing Trevor Hoffman a 8-7 9th inning lead. HE coughs up a run, making it a tie ballgame. Aaron Heilman then gives Hoffman a helping hand by hanging one to Adrian Gonzalez. Heath Bell finally ends the madness by throwing a scoreless bottom 10th and Hoffman walks away with the golden W.
The Rico Brogna Award
Marlon Byrd drove in 7 runs in 21 at bats, but only managed to hit .190/.286/.333.
Season to Date: Andruw Jones has made a hash of the season, hitting .223/.315/.429, but he gets a big pat on the back for being tied for 26th in the Majors with 83 RBI. He's a "PROVEN RUN PRODUCER", whatever that means.
The Harmon Killebrew Batting Average is for Wussies Award
Nate McLouth had a nice week despite hitting .258. 2 doubles, 3 home runs, and 5 walks in 31 at bats will do that for you. His .974 OPS is pretty nice.
I hadn't noticed, but McLouth is up to a very respectable .251/.331/.455 this season. I had seen him play here in Indy and had viewed him as strictly a kind of 4th outfielder virtuoso in the making. I'll also mention that I may be alone here, but I've always thought that the name Nate McLouth just sounds like the name of a player from 1924.
Season as a whole: Ryan Howard's .264/.386/.564 gets it done. He may not hit many singles, but he has 20 doubles, 34 bombs, and 81 walks. Nifty.
The Rey Sanchez Batting Average is all I've Got Award
We have a tie for the top spot with two very similar performances. Nook Logan hit .308/.308/.346 and Jose Lopez .308/.308/.385. That's 52 AB, 3 doubles, no homers or walks.
Season: Delmon Young has a .288 BA, but he's not hitting for power or drawing walks. .317/.403 OBP/SLG is anemic, even for a player as young as he is. In 511 at bats, he's hit only 9 home runs and drawn only 22 walks.
The Steve Balboni Award
There are two really good candidates here too. Rookie Josh Fields popped 2 homers, a double, and drew a pair of walks. But his 11 K's pulled him down to a .179/.233/.429 line. Meanwhile, Brad Hawpe likewise tallied a double, a couple bombs, and a pair of walks while striking out 10 times for a .167/.231/.458 week.
Leader: Brandon Inge: 408 AB, 130 K, .246/.319/.380
3 True Outcomes Alert!!!
Carlos Pena had a very solid TTO week, with 3 HR, 8 BB, 4 K in 20 AB.
Leader: Ryan Howard is tied for 7th in the Majors in walks with 81, leads in K's with 152, and is 4th in HR with 36.
This Week's Completely Made Up Award
I was talking with my friend Dan Wesley and a couple other people about various hitters and we went about comparing the virtues and weaknesses of a pair of Devil Rays. When looking at the careers of Jonny Gomes and Carlos Pena, it's very strange to see just how similar they are statistically. Gomes has had about half the ML career that Pena has had, due in no small part to his being two and a half years Pena's junior. The two of them get the "Separated At Birth" Award.
Pena
2383 career PA
102 2B: 3.6% of PA
114 HR: 4.78%
279 BB: 11.71%
608 K: 25.51%
Career line: .248/.341/.478
Gomes
1183 career PA
48 2B: 4.06%
55 HR: 4.65%
121 BB: 10.23%
322 K: 27.22%
Career Line: .246/.338/.473
Pena gets some bonus points for playing his home games in Comerica Park for most of his career. He also gets bonus points for being a Gold Glove darkhorse. Gomes theoretically has more career ahead of him, though he might get hurt in the future by his questionable glove and that's part of the famed "Old Player Skills" that portends sudden performance drop-offs and early ending careers. It'll be interesting to watch their lines going forward.
This Week's Dumbest Thing Ever
A save in a 30-3 game? When the pitcher in question entered the game with an 11 run lead? The situation was actually presented to me by Lone Star Ball founder and proprietor, and friend of BTB and the Awards Adam Morris. And indeed, it's worthy, perhaps overqualified.
In the original concept for this weekly column, I intended to hand out an award based on cheap saves and the silliness that tends to follow that particular stat around. For one reason or another, I really never got around to it. Two things happened this week to prompt me to mention it. First, the Littleton save, which points a spotlight at the dumbest provision in a dumb set of rules for a dumb stat. The second is that Dave Pinto laid out a new set of procedures for the save, or if you prefer a stat that better accomplishes what the save was originally set out to measure.
This Week's MVP
AL: David Ortiz hit .478/.600/1.043 with 2 doubles, a triple, 3 homers, 7 walks, and only 1 K.
Season: ARod
NL: Having Mark Teixeira in the NL is going to take some getting used to for me. He's done well there though, going .414/.514/.793 this week for the politically incorrect team from Georgia.
Season: Hanley Ramirez is still hitting .332/.389/.561, but David Wright is gaining on him, as the Mets third baseman is up to .319/.413/.535 himself. He's even stolen 28 bases this year with an 87.5 percent success rate. He drew 10 walks this week. But even being the best player on a playoff contender isn't likely to be enough as he's trailing in RBI, which BBWAA voters love, and for all of his popularity, the national media has seemed to have been hyping Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard more than Wright.
Here's Where You Come In
I need your help. Please drop me a line nominate players for awards maybe entire team for awards. Make up your own award. Point out something stupid that your local color commentator said during a recent game. I can only watch so much baseball in a week, even with the miracle of MLB.TV. I have to use you as a crutch.
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A Look at the Potential 2007 American League All-Star Team
On Monday I took a look at positional players who were currently leading in fan voting for the National League All-Star team. As I expected, there were a few players that I personally thought were currently being "snubbed" and weren't guaranteed spots for the team (Prince Fielder, Russell Martin), but there were also a few guys who were leading in fan voting that I believe deserved starting jobs (Barry Bonds, Jose Reyes).
Today I'll take a look at the American League team and determine just if the fans are voting for the deserving player:
Catcher:
Current Leader: Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
My Pick: Jorge Posada, New York Yankees
Posada is a little more than 100,000 votes behind Pudge in the fan voting for the starting American League catcher, but if he continues to play the way he is, that margin is going to shrink. In terms of VORP (31.2 runs) and EqA (.318), Posada is tops among A.L. catchers. In fact, his VORP is currently 20.7 runs higher than Rodriguez, by no means a negligible difference. Posada's bat alone has generated two more wins in the standings than that of Rodriguez and there is no doubt in my mind that he should be the starting catcher for his leagues All-Star Team.
First Base:
Current Leader: David Oritz, Boston Red Sox
My Pick: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
To me this is a toss up between Ortiz and Casey Kotchman of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Ortiz bat (33.8 VORP as DH) has been a bit more valuable than Kotchman's (27.2 VORP as 1B) thus far, but Kotchman has been fielding the ball very cleanly from first base (106 Rate2) playing the position daily. This is a real close one. Ortiz WARP1 is just a shade below Kotchman's (3.1 wins compared to Kotchman's 3.2 wins), but I'll give Ortiz the benefit of the doubt because of his bat.
Shortstop:
Current Leader: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
My Pick: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
I'll side with the fans here again and take Jeter over the likes of Orlando Cabrera and Carlos Guillen who are each having very good seasons. Jeter currently leads all A.L. shortstops in VORP (30.4 runs), EqA (.303), batting average (.343) and on-base percentage (.421). If not for Carlos Guillen's so-so defense (86 Rate2), he might be the best choice here. But Jeter is clearly proving he's still an elite player at 33 years of age, out-producing just about every shortstop in the league in every offensive category. And by the way, he's also fielding the ball very well for the third year in a row (113 Rate2).
Second Base:
Current Leader: Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers
My Pick: B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
This is another one that could go a few different ways, but I'm going with the recently injured Upton as of right now. Despite the fact he is currently hitting .334, I can't bring myself to vote for Polanco who has only hit one home run the entire year. Upton currently leads all A.L. second basemen in VORP (24.6 runs) and EqA (.316), but as we already know he is struggling mightily with the glove (87 Rate2). Still, the next best thing to Upton in the American League is Brian Roberts of the Orioles and he too is struggling with the glove (92 Rate2). Because I'm having a difficult time finding a more well-rounded and productive second basemen in the A.L., my vote goes to Upton.
Third Base:
Current Leader: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
My Pick: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
A-Rod leads the Red Sox Mike Lowell in total votes by nearly one million tallies. This race is a no contest, nor should it be anything other than that. Rodriguez slumped a bit through May (.235/.361/.422), but he's heating up in June and might be the leagues MVP thus far. He currently leads all A.L. third baseman in VORP (42.1 runs) and EqA (.339) and despite criticism around the game, Rate2 (104) thinks he's fielding the ball pretty well. Lowell and Toronto's Troy Glaus, the number two and number three A.L. third baseman in terms of VORP, combined (39.2 runs) cannot top Rodriguez mark of 42.1 runs. There is virtually no doubt that Rodriguez has this spot locked up.
The Starting Outfield:
Current Leaders: Vladimir Guerrero (Los Angeles Angels), Manny Ramirez (Boston Red Sox), Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle Mariners)
My Picks: Magglio Ordonez (Detroit Tigers), Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle Mariners), Manny Ramirez (Boston Red Sox)
With all due respect to Vlad Guerrero, who is having an MVP-caliber type of season, there is no reason why Magglio Ordonez should not be the starting right fielder for the A.L. All-Stars. Ordonez currently leads all of baseball in VORP (45.8 runs), a figure that is a little more than ten runs better than that of Guerrero (35.0 VORP). His EqA of .351 is second in baseball to only Barry Bonds (.363) and I know plenty of baseball fans would argue he is the MVP of this league. Other Tigers such as Polanco and Rodriguez are represented well on the ballot, but Tiger fans really should start focusing on getting Ordonez a starting spot on the team. That he really deserves.
I'll take Ichiro in center field for the A.L. All-Stars, but Cleveland's Grady Sizemore is a close second. Sizemore's VORP of 31.2 runs narrowly trails that of Ichiro (33.7 runs) and their EqA's are even closer; Ichiro leads all center-fielders in the league at .308, but Sizemore is right there at .307. What separates the two is Ichiro's outstanding defense in center (109 Rate2) and Sizemore's not-so-outstanding defense (96 Rate2) this year. Once again, another close pick, but Ichiro has been just a hair better so far this season.
It's too bad Guerrero can't play left field; he's heads and shoulders better than every left fielder in the American League. With that said, I'm going with Ramirez who's having a bit of a down year power-wise hitting .290/.394/.446. His VORP of 16.9 runs tops A.L. left-fielders, but four right-fielder in the league (including Ordonez) each have higher VORP's and probably deserve the starting job over Manny. Still this is all the A.L. has to offer at this position and to me, Manny deserves the starting job.
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A Look at the Potential 2007 American League All-Star team
On Monday I took a look at positional players who were currently leading in fan voting for the National League All-Star team. As I expected, there were a few players that I personally thought were currently being "snubbed" and weren't guaranteed spots for the team (Prince Fielder, Russell Martin), but there were also a few guys who were leading in fan voting that I believe deserved starting jobs (Barry Bonds, Jose Reyes).
Today I'll take a look at the American League team and determine just if the fans are voting for the deserving player:
Catcher:
Current Leader: Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
My Pick: Jorge Posada, New York Yankees
Posada is a little more than 100,000 votes behind Pudge in the fan voting for the starting American League catcher, but if he continues to play the way he is, that margin is going to shrink. In terms of VORP (31.2 runs) and EqA (.318), Posada is tops among A.L. catchers. In fact, his VORP is currently 20.7 runs higher than Rodriguez, by no means a negligible difference. Posada's bat alone has generated two more wins in the standings than that of Rodriguez and there is no doubt in my mind that he should be the starting catcher for his leagues All-Star Team.
First Base:
Current Leader: David Oritz, Boston Red Sox
My Pick: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
To me this is a toss up between Ortiz and Casey Kotchman of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Ortiz bat (33.8 VORP as DH) has been a bit more valuable than Kotchman's (27.2 VORP as 1B) thus far, but Kotchman has been fielding the ball very cleanly from first base (106 Rate2) playing the position daily. This is a real close one. Ortiz WARP1 is just a shade below Kotchman's (3.1 wins compared to Kotchman's 3.2 wins), but I'll give Ortiz the benefit of the doubt because of his bat.
Shortstop:
Current Leader: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
My Pick: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
I'll side with the fans here again and take Jeter over the likes of Orlando Cabrera and Carlos Guillen who are each having very good seasons. Jeter currently leads all A.L. shortstops in VORP (30.4 runs), EqA (.303), batting average (.343) and on-base percentage (.421). If not for Carlos Guillen's so-so defense (86 Rate2), he might be the best choice here. But Jeter is clearly proving he's still an elite player at 33 years of age, out-producing just about every shortstop in the league in every offensive category. And by the way, he's also fielding the ball very well for the third year in a row (113 Rate2).
Second Base:
Current Leader: Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers
My Pick: B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
This is another one that could go a few different ways, but I'm going with the recently injured Upton as of right now. Despite the fact he is currently hitting .334, I can't bring myself to vote for Polanco who has only hit one home run the entire year. Upton currently leads all A.L. second basemen in VORP (24.6 runs) and EqA (.316), but as we already know he is struggling mightily with the glove (87 Rate2). Still, the next best thing to Upton in the American League is Brian Roberts of the Orioles and he too is struggling with the glove (92 Rate2). Because I'm having a difficult time finding a more well-rounded and productive second basemen in the A.L., my vote goes to Upton.
Third Base:
Current Leader: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
My Pick: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
A-Rod leads the Red Sox Mike Lowell in total votes by nearly one million tallies. This race is a no contest, nor should it be anything other than that. Rodriguez slumped a bit through May (.235/.361/.422), but he's heating up in June and might be the leagues MVP thus far. He currently leads all A.L. third baseman in VORP (42.1 runs) and EqA (.339) and despite criticism around the game, Rate2 (104) thinks he's fielding the ball pretty well. Lowell and Toronto's Troy Glaus, the number two and number three A.L. third baseman in terms of VORP, combined (39.2 runs) cannot top Rodriguez mark of 42.1 runs. There is virtually no doubt that Rodriguez has this spot locked up.
The Starting Outfield:
Current Leaders: Vladimir Guerrero (Los Angeles Angels), Manny Ramirez (Boston Red Sox), Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle Mariners)
My Picks: Magglio Ordonez (Detroit Tigers), Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle Mariners), Manny Ramirez (Boston Red Sox)
With all due respect to Vlad Guerrero, who is having an MVP-caliber type of season, there is no reason why Magglio Ordonez should not be the starting right fielder for the A.L. All-Stars. Ordonez currently leads all of baseball in VORP (45.8 runs), a figure that is a little more than ten runs better than that of Guerrero (35.0 VORP). His EqA of .351 is second in baseball to only Barry Bonds (.363) and I know plenty of baseball fans would argue he is the MVP of this league. Other Tigers such as Polanco and Rodriguez are represented well on the ballot, but Tiger fans really should start focusing on getting Ordonez a starting spot on the team. That he really deserves.
I'll take Ichiro in center field for the A.L. All-Stars, but Cleveland's Grady Sizemore is a close second. Sizemore's VORP of 31.2 runs narrowly trails that of Ichiro (33.7 runs) and their EqA's are even closer; Ichiro leads all center-fielders in the league at .308, but Sizemore is right there at .307. What separates the two is Ichiro's outstanding defense in center (109 Rate2) and Sizemore's not-so-outstanding defense (96 Rate2) this year. Once again, another close pick, but Ichiro has been just a hair better so far this season.
It's too bad Guerrero can't play left field; he's heads and shoulders better than every left fielder in the American League. With that said, I'm going with Ramirez who's having a bit of a down year power-wise hitting .290/.394/.446. His VORP of 16.9 runs tops A.L. left-fielders, but four right-fielder in the league (including Ordonez) each have higher VORP's and probably deserve the starting job over Manny. Still this is all the A.L. has to offer at this position and to me, Manny deserves the starting job.
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