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Note: this post as been updated

Back in February of this year I published a write up comparing the projected value of free agent signings based on position players' projected runs created and their 2011 salaries. The projections were based on Tango's Marcel Projections.

Now that the season is done I wanted to check back in and compare the projected dollars per run created of those free agents to their actual performance.

Here are the results by individual player (wider view available after the fold):

The chart is sorted in terms of the return each team got on their initial investment. Not surprisingly, Melky Cabrera comes in at the highest ROI--producing $19M in value for a paltry $1.25 investment. Lance Berkman's $22.4M in production (3rd highest among free agents) required only $8M (180% ROI). 

Berkman was one of the best bargains of the off-season, but there were certainly more to be found. Jhonny Peralta returned the second most value ($23M) on an even lower up-front investment ($5.625M). 

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Despite mounting uncertainty surrounding the immediate financial future of Florida Miami Marlins, the organization should lock up their slugging right fielder, Giancarlo Cruz Michael Stanton.  To begin 2012, the Marlins will be entering a new stadium without any degree of certainty in their projected box office receipts. Rather than spend hordes of money in free agency, the Marlins should reaffirm their commitment to their cyclical fire sale strategy. Even with such concerns looming, the Marlins should make it a priority secure Stanton's services, until it's too late.

Promises of a cash infusion to the roster have trickled in of late, likely quite closely tied to ownerships desire to fill their new publically funded stadium. While Jeffrey Loria spending at-will seems farfetched,  it's conceivable that  the Marlins could dive into the deep end of free agent pool. Though, as exciting as it is to rush to a new ballpark - especially one funded with $347 million in taxes that could have been used to  fix numerous issues in Dade-Miami County - it's hard to imagine that the Loria is confident in his capacity to maintain similar ticket receipts in the future given the organization's consistent inability to draw fans during its brief lifespan.[1]. While not a comparable situation, Loria must be haunted by the words of Stu Sternberg following the Tampa Bay Rays inability to sell-out playoff games.

Even if Marlins are able to uncharacteristically draw three million fans in 2012, it's risky to assume such an attendance rate would continue. Bolstering the roster with multi-year contracts will only insure a lack of flexibility, not consistent revenue.[2]. Thus, the Marlins should continue to use a modified version of fire sale model, keep their obligations reasonably low until some consistent trend of ticket sales is discerned. [3].

If wise, Larry Beinfest will make extending Mike Stanton a priority, offering a deal that trades security for a several free agent years before the right fielder competes his transformation from raw talent to superstar. So what would a fair deal be and how do we figure that out?

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Every now and then baseball fans take team or fan-base loyalty for granted. Also lack thereof, in many respects. We're quick to criticize fans who fail to show up to the park but applaud those who do. If there's one thing we never think about its the loyalty, passion and devotion of baseball fans who do not have an MLB team in their hometown. There are only thirty cities in the U.S. that host a Major League ball-club against two-hundred-and-thirty-four that posses a minor league team along with many others that either boast an Indy League team, used to claim home of a pro team or have additional importance such as say, Cooperstown. (UPDATE: As our very own Lewis Pollis points out, there are only 24 MLB cities, not 30. There are 24 media markets in only 17 states. So that makes things even more favorable for the non-MLB cities.)

Baseball fans are baseball fans therefore it's unfair to judge fan loyalty based on ballpark size or level of your home team's affiliate. Heck, people don't own a city, they just live in one. Something has been on mind for quite some time. I've spent the summer's entirety around Minor League and Independent League Baseball wondering where America's best baseball city is located, excluding those that boast Major League teams. So let's take a look, shall we?

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Free Agent ROI, year to date | click to enlarge

Yesterday, I discussed those 2011 positional free agents that have already paid for themselves (some several times over) with their performance on the field this year.

Today, I want to look at how teams overall fared with their investments this past off-season.

To do that, I simply took the data set of positional free agents, their cost, and return to date and aggregated them by team. (Note the data was pulled in February, so not all signings are represented.)

The team with the best ROI on their positional free agents so far (min. 2 signings)? The Cincinnati Reds.

Three of the four free agents the Reds signed have provided an ROI over 144% so far. And the fourth, Edgar Rentaria, is just about on pace to break even by the end of the year. Miguel Cairo ($1M investment, $6.8M in value), Ramon Hernandez ($3M, $8M), and Fred Lewis ($.9M, $2.2M) have all provided fantastic returns. Overall, the Reds turned $7M in signings into $18.2M in on-field performance.

Not too shabby.

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Signing free agents is certainly a volatile game. It's hard enough to predict how a player will perform year to year, and even if you can the value of that performance might not square with what the market is saying about the player's worth.

Back in February I looked at the 2011 positional free agent signings and their wRC projections based on Tango's Marcel system and calculated each player's expected wRC/$ based on their annual salary.

Now, that didn't include anything but offense contributions via the bat, nor did it take into account positional adjustments, etc. In order to get a more complete picture of these signings I compared each player's value year-to-date based on FanGraphs' calculations to their salary.

The table below lists those 23 players that after only 60% of the season have created greater than or equal to their entire annual salary for their respective teams.

click to enlarge

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One of the best perks of living in New York is the constant comedy that WFAN radio callers provide. Some New Yorkers live to call the station and propose ridiculous trades in hopes that their favorite team can obtain the best talent in the league for pennies on the dollar. This uniformed breed - commonly known as Yankee fans - can concoct mind-numbing  scenarios. So, when I accidentally tuned in and heard several variations of Ubaldo Jimenez to the Yankees, I dismissed it out of hand. But, yesterday I read a John Heyman report that immediately gave this rumor far more creditably than the typical dreck that pollutes New York's airwaves.

While it is fashionable to suggest that the Yankees could acquire Ubaldo Jimenez for package centered around top prospect Jesus Montero, however it seems the "catcher" will not be enough. Heyman reports that GM Dan O'Dowd is looking package  comparable to the storied Hershel Walker trade that took place in the NFL between the Vikings and the Cowboys. The Vikings traded 5 players and 6 draft picks for the running back and the fan base still cringes at the thought of "The Great Train Robbery".

Dementia would have to set in before Brian Cashman seriously considered offering a comparable package, but obviously any package must exceed Ubaldo's value to the his current club.

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