More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

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A team with a player in his "arbitration years" has essentially three options. First, it can go through the arbitration process (using what is known as "Final Offer Arbitration"). Second, it can reach a contract to avoid arbitration, whether it is a long term deal or merely a one-year deal that splits the difference between the amount the player seeks and the team has offered. Finally, the team can non-tender the player, which is shorthand for saying that the team declines to offer the player a contract at all, making him a free agent.

"What kind of crazy team would ever do this?" you may be asking. Plenty of them, argues Buster Olney:

Baseball's financial structure appears to have reached a tipping point that can be defined simply. "The arbitration process is now outdated," said a highly ranked executive, "because the players can get more money in arbitration than they would through free agency."

So now teams are about to adjust to this reality, and this is why multiple general managers expect that dozens of young players with three, four and five years of major league experience will be cut loose rather than offered arbitration in the next 41 days. Not a handful, but dozens.

You can find a speculative list of potential non-tender candidates here. What is to be done about this coming avalanche of non-tenders?!

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More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Minnesota Twins' Carlos Gomez lays down a sacrifice bunt against the Houston Astros in the fifth inning of a baseball game Friday, June 19, 2009, in Minneapolis. He'll get to do more of that now that he's heading to Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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The hot stove just keeps a'burning, as news has come out that the Milwaukee Brewers have dealt shortstop J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins for center fielder Carlos Gomez.

What does this trade mean for the teams involved? First off, it shows teams are very interested in defensive prowess in their players, as both Hardy and Gomez are well renowned for their gloves. But what about their overall value? The Trade Value Calculator has the (approximate) answer!

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More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

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The Red Sox have acquired outfielder and former first-round pick (11th overall) Jeremy Hermida from the Florida Marlins. In return, the Marlins will receive two minor league southpaws: Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez.

Hermida has frustrated Marlins fans during his four full seasons in South Florida. Take a look at his WAR totals for each of his years in the major league, including his 2005 cup of coffee:

Aside from his strong 2007, Hermida is only slightly above replacement level. He is certainly a below-average corner outfielder. What did the Red Sox give up to acquire such a dubious asset?

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More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

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UPDATE 2 (12:31 PM, Tommy): The trade has been confirmed by the Chicago Sun-Times.

UPDATE (12:05 PM, Tommy): According to ESPN's Buster Olney, talks between the Royals and White Sox are "not that far along," although he adds that "the expectation of rival GMs is that the Royals at some point are going to trade Teahen, who is expected to make about $5 million next season and has become too expensive."

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Kansas City receives: 3B Josh Fields & 2B Chris Getz

Chicago receives: INF/OF Mark Teahen

A Bill Madden report has Teahen pegged to replace Jermaine Dye in right field next year. Throughout his career he's logged nearly 2,500 innings in the outfield - mostly the corners - and has a -1 UZR to show for it. That's not horrible, especially not when contrasted to Jermaine Dye's dead-horse act the past few seasons. His bat is what it is. Over the last three years his wRAA have ranged from -8.5 to 1.4, with a -3.9 year thrown in for good measure. Given the move to a more hitter friendly park, Teahen's raw offensive numbers should improve. He is 28-years-old and Cot's accredits him with service time of 3.155 (years.days). Add a year and Teahen will become a free agent for the first time following the 2011 season.

In return, the Royals are dealt two players who fit into their puzzle somehow.

Fields is a former top prospect who struggled in 2009 offensively and defensively.  He's torn up Triple-A enough to show he's got some bat, but outside of 2007, it's yet to translate. Fields has a penchant for striking out one-third of the time and while he walks at a league average rate, there's only so much  offense you provide when making contact less than 70% of the time (like he did in 2009; 71.1% for his career). He's shown some pop, mostly in 2007, and the Royals are banking on Fields at least taking Teahen's role as a super-utility player. Maybe he puts it together with a change of scenery, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Getz meanwhile failed in his first season as a Major League second baseman. His minor league track record suggests he can hit better too, and unlike Fields he's not a boom or bust hitter. He walked a fair amount in the minors and strikeouts were rarely an issue (nor was power). Scouting reports suggest he's a decent defender at second base, although they also peg him as a future utility man.

This doesn't seem like a win for either club. The White Sox get the better player for right now and shed players without roles, but at the same time Teahen is unlikely to morph into something more than an average player at best. Meanwhile the Royals free up some cash and get players who may replicate Teahen's performances over the past few years at a reduced cost.

Interesting way to start the off-season.

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

4 days ago: FILE - In this May 13, 2009, file photo, Tampa Bay Rays' Akinori Iwamura throws out Baltimore Orioles' Brian Roberts (not shown) during the first inning of a baseball game in Baltimore. The Rays traded second baseman Akinori Iwamura to the Pittsburgh Pirates for right-handed reliever Jesse Chavez on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2009. (AP Photo/Gail Burton, File)

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The news broke out today that the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired infielder Akinori Iwamura from the Tampa Bay Rays for reliever Jesse Chavez. Now, there have been many sources of analysis on this topic, so I won't delve too much further into this, but I did think it would be nice for us to whip out the good ol' fashioned Sky Kalkman Trade Value Calculator (a Beyond the Box Score original!) once again.

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More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

How will the economy impact the fortunes of free agents to be, like Bobby Abreu? (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

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It is possible that the recession in the United States has already ended. Yesterday, the Commerce Department announced that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) had grown in the third quarter at an annual rate of 3.5%. It marked the first quarter of GDP growth in more than a year. What does this have to do with baseball?

This past offseason, many commentators noted the effect the financial panic had on the free agent market. With the uncertainty in the economy, below-market contracts were given to players like Bobby Abreu and Orlando Hudson. Evaluating the value of a win is never easy, but perhaps we can make some inferences about player salaries based only on GDP statistics.

UPDATED x 2 (see below)

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More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

FILE - In this Nov. 4, 2008, file photo, San Diego Padres general manager Kevin Towers talks about the possibilities of trading star pitcher Jake Peavy and shortstop Khalil Greene, at a meeting of baseball GMs in Dana Point, Calif. Towers, the longest-tenured general manager in the major leagues, is being fired by the San Diego Padres after 14 seasons. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi, File)

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Floating around the rumor mill lately are reports that San Diego Padres GM will be fired after the season is over.  Towers spent the last 14 seasons as the GM of the Padres, and over that span San Diego has made the playoffs 4 times, including their only World Series appearance in 1998.  Assuming Towers will indeed lose his job, the Padres record over his Tenure will be 1107-1159, for a .478 winning percentage.

Of course, Jeff Moorad and the new Padres ownership group probably isn't terribly interested in the 1998 World Series run nor the back-to-back division titles in 2005 and 2006.  As ESPN is wont to remind us, the world of professional sports is a "What have you done for me lately?" world.  The Padres 74 win season this year certainly looks great compared to their 2008 win total of 63.  However, their run differential suggests a talent level closer to 66 wins.  Regardless, the talent on the field right now leaves something to be desired.  The question must be asked, though - what did Towers do to deserve getting fired?

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More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Pirates starter Charlie Morton appears to be a critical acquisition in Pittsburgh's trading spree.(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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(Note: All research and projections were done two and a half weeks ago, but this article was simply not written out then due to other commitments. Any changes due to more recent results can be blamed on my laziness. Adjust accordingly if you'd like.)

Parts 1 and 2 (shown here and here) detailed the players that left the Pittsburgh Pirates this year in trades and how much surplus value they may have provided over the life of their remaining contracts. The Pirates gave up ten players, some of real worth due to their contract status, some not as much due to the remaining length and price of their deals. Using the projections and Sky Kalkman's Trade Value Calculator, I came up with a surplus value of $86.8M.

(Addendum: An emailer and blogger for the Pirates vehemently denies that the Pirates would have non-tendered Tom Gorzelanny. I'm unsure about this, especially given my prediction of another player that the Pirates received of similar value, but if you feel the Pirates would have tendered Gorzelanny after a season of rookie contract team control, add an additional $7M to that $86.8M, calculated as either a 160 inning starter or a 65 inning reliever.

However, the haul the Pirates got in return is almost entirely under team control for the next half decade, with the exception of a few players. Can these players provide the value the Pirates need to offset that large value? We'll find out after the jump.

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