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BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, June 30th, 2009

Welcome to our weekly ranking of all the MLB teams!  In this ranking, we use aggregate team hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics--not team wins, losses, runs scored, or runs allowed--to evaluate the performance of teams to date.  You can think of the estimated winning percentage (eW%) below as how we'd expect teams to fall out if we threw teams with these aggregate statistics into one big league and let them battle it out for thousands of games.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.  All data are park-adjusted when possible.  A legend is below the table, followed by commentary. There is also a table comparing actual vs. expected run scored and run allowed totals, as well as actual vs. expected winning percentages.

Rank Chg Team wOBA eRS tRA tRns Fld eRA eW%lg LgAdj eW%
1 0 TB 0.363 463 4.76 368 21.9 346 0.638 11.0 0.662
2 +2 NYA 0.361 443 4.85 366 1.0 365 0.595 10.6 0.620
3 0 BOS 0.344 400 4.24 321 -14.5 336 0.583 10.7 0.610
4 -2 TOR 0.339 401 4.50 356 4.8 351 0.563 11.0 0.590
5 0 LAN 0.335 387 4.17 328 11.8 316 0.594 -10.8 0.565
6 +7 CHA 0.322 331 4.11 310 -6.8 317 0.519 10.7 0.550
7 -1 DET 0.330 350 4.86 364 19.2 345 0.507 10.7 0.536
8 -1 COL 0.326 350 3.99 302 -1.7 304 0.565 -10.7 0.535
9 -1 MIN 0.334 379 4.79 370 -6.5 377 0.503 11.0 0.531
10 -1 TEX 0.333 356 4.97 376 18.5 357 0.499 10.6 0.527
11 0 LAA 0.339 371 5.05 372 -6.2 378 0.490 10.4 0.517
12 -2 CLE 0.337 397 5.15 400 -19.7 420 0.472 11.0 0.499
13 +1 KC 0.315 306 4.22 314 -14.7 329 0.467 10.6 0.498
14 +4 SEA 0.317 316 4.77 361 17.3 343 0.462 10.6 0.492
15 0 BAL 0.331 357 4.85 365 -23.5 389 0.460 10.7 0.487
16 +1 MIL 0.334 369 4.93 372 13.9 358 0.514 -10.7 0.486
17 -1 PHI 0.340 381 5.09 379 4.4 375 0.508 -10.3 0.482
18 -6 NYN 0.332 362 4.59 345 -14.9 360 0.502 -10.6 0.474
19 +3 ARI 0.312 323 4.21 329 6.4 322 0.501 -10.7 0.470
20 +3 PIT 0.325 342 4.92 369 21.9 347 0.493 -10.7 0.464
21 -2 STL 0.324 343 4.53 352 4.2 348 0.493 -11.0 0.463
22 -1 ATL 0.315 319 4.10 312 -15.2 327 0.488 -10.6 0.458
23 +1 OAK 0.304 288 4.40 335 -7.1 342 0.422 10.6 0.452
24 -4 CHN 0.308 296 4.27 315 5.5 309 0.480 -10.3 0.449
25 +3 SF 0.306 287 4.30 322 8.7 313 0.461 -10.6 0.429
26 0 FLA 0.323 350 4.74 373 -15.0 388 0.452 -11.0 0.424
27 0 HOU 0.322 330 4.87 369 -1.9 371 0.445 -10.4 0.417
28 -3 CIN 0.310 304 4.80 363 19.8 343 0.444 -10.4 0.414
29 0 WAS 0.328 354 5.28 393 -22.8 416 0.422 -10.4 0.396
30 0 SD 0.318 320 5.05 383 -8.9 392 0.404 -10.6 0.377

 

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BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009

Ian Kinsler's Texas Rangers are back on top of the AL West, at least on paper. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Ian Kinsler's Texas Rangers are back on top of the AL West, at least on paper. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Welcome to our weekly ranking of all the MLB teams!  In this ranking, we use aggregate team hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics--not team wins, losses, runs scored, or runs allowed--to evaluate the performance of teams to date.  You can think of the estimated winning percentage (eW%) below as how we'd expect teams to fall out if we threw teams with these aggregate statistics into one big league and let them battle it out for thousands of games.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.  All data are park-adjusted when possible.  A legend is below the table, followed commentary about five teams. There is also a table comparing actual vs. expected run scored and run allowed totals, as well as actual vs. expected winning percentages.

 

BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, June 23

Rank Chg Team wOBA eRS tRA tRns Fld eRA eW%lg LgAdj eW%
1 0 TB 0.362 418 4.85 340 17.6 323 0.623 10.0 0.648
2 +1 TOR 0.343 377 4.47 322 8.0 314 0.587 10.0 0.614
3 -1 BOS 0.348 372 4.32 299 -15.4 314 0.581 9.7 0.608
4 0 NYA 0.359 400 5.00 347 -0.3 347 0.569 9.7 0.595
5 0 LAN 0.342 366 4.14 294 7.2 287 0.614 -9.9 0.587
6 0 DET 0.330 316 4.79 327 20.1 307 0.513 9.7 0.542
7 +6 COL 0.330 328 4.03 280 -4.4 284 0.567 -9.9 0.537
8 +2 MIN 0.340 356 4.85 343 -6.2 349 0.510 10.0 0.537
9 -1 TEX 0.333 322 5.14 350 22.8 328 0.492 9.6 0.520
10 +1 CLE 0.341 374 5.17 368 -16.2 384 0.486 10.0 0.512
11 -4 LAA 0.337 334 4.99 338 -7.7 346 0.484 9.6 0.511
12 0 NYN 0.337 342 4.47 306 -10.9 317 0.537 -9.6 0.509
13 +1 CHA 0.311 275 4.15 284 -8.5 293 0.472 9.7 0.503
14 -5 KC 0.317 282 4.18 282 -19.6 302 0.469 9.6 0.499
15 +2 BAL 0.331 325 4.85 333 -16.6 349 0.465 9.7 0.493
16 -1 PHI 0.343 357 5.09 350 2.9 347 0.514 -9.4 0.487
17 -1 MIL 0.331 328 4.92 337 15.8 321 0.510 -9.7 0.481
18 +5 SEA 0.314 282 4.69 327 13.1 314 0.451 9.7 0.481
19 +3 STL 0.328 323 4.56 324 5.8 318 0.508 -10.0 0.479
20 -1 CHN 0.311 275 4.18 281 9.0 272 0.505 -9.3 0.474
21 0 ATL 0.316 295 4.05 284 -10.9 295 0.501 -9.7 0.470
22 -4 ARI 0.312 294 4.21 302 5.3 297 0.496 -9.9 0.466
23 -3 PIT 0.325 312 4.98 338 15.1 323 0.484 -9.7 0.456
24 0 OAK 0.302 259 4.45 312 -4.1 316 0.410 9.7 0.441
25 0 CIN 0.308 275 4.75 332 18.8 314 0.439 -9.6 0.409
26 0 FLA 0.320 314 4.77 344 -15.5 360 0.436 -10.0 0.408
27 0 HOU 0.323 303 5.01 343 -4.2 347 0.435 -9.4 0.408
28 +1 SF 0.302 253 4.28 296 2.3 293 0.435 -9.7 0.404
29 -1 WAS 0.329 327 5.32 362 -16.2 378 0.429 -9.4 0.403
30 0 SD 0.319 293 5.03 348 -7.5 355 0.410 -9.6 0.383

Offense = wOBA (park-corrected), eRS (estimated runs scored; wRC from FanGraphs, then park adjusted)
Pitching = tRA and tRns are a home-brew version of Graham MacAree's statistic.
Fielding = Fld: average of bUZR (from FanGraphs) and THT's batted balls statistic (converted to runs)
eRA (estimated runs allowed) = Pitching - Fielding
eW%lg = estimated winning percentage within the specific league (AL or NL)
LgAdj = league adjustment (bonus to AL teams, penalty to NL teams, because the AL has superior level of play)
eW% = estimated winning percentage if all teams were in one league (after league adjustment)
Methods provided in more detail in the first post in this series

Team Leaders (asterisks indicate teams improving in specific ranking):

American League
Offense (wOBA): Rays, Yankees, Red Sox
Pitching (tRA): White Sox*, Royals, Red Sox
Fielding (Fld): Rangers, Tigers, Rays*

National League
Offense (wOBA): Phillies, Dodgers*, Mets
Pitching (tRA): Rockies, Braves, Dodgers*
Fielding (Fld): Reds, Brewers, Pirates

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):

American League: E=Rays, C=Tigers, W=Rangers*, WC=Blue Jays*
National League: E=Mets, C=Brewers, W=Dodgers, WC=Rockies

Commentary below the jump!

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BtB Power Rankings: Through Wednesday, June 17th, 2009

Ubaldo Jimenez fronts the best pitching staff (to date) in the National League.  They've helped the Rockies rise in our rankings, and are now our "on paper" leaders for the wild card. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

Ubaldo Jimenez fronts the best pitching staff (to date) in the National League. They've helped the Rockies rise in our rankings, and are now our "on paper" leaders for the wild card. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Welcome to our weekly ranking of all the MLB teams!  In this ranking, we use aggregate team hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics--not team wins, losses, runs scored, or runs allowed--to evaluate the performance of teams to date.  You can think of the estimated winning percentage (eW%) below as how we'd expect teams to fall out if we threw teams with these aggregate statistics into one big league and let them battle it out for thousands of games.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.  All data are park-adjusted when possible.  A legend is below the table, followed commentary about five teams: Giants, Reds, Diamondbacks, Angels, and Cubs.  This week, I focus specifically on looking at disparities between these rankings and Pythagorean team records to date.  There is also a table comparing actual vs. expected run scored and run allowed totals, as well as actual vs. expected winning percentages.

BtB Power Rankings: Through June 17, 2009

Rank Chg Team wOBA eRS tRA tRns Fld eRA eW%lg LgAdj eW%
1 +1 TB 0.365 396 4.87 319 13.3 306 0.624 9.3 0.648
2 +1 BOS 0.351 356 4.35 281 -12.9 294 0.592 9.0 0.618
3 -2 TOR 0.342 346 4.53 303 14.3 289 0.586 9.3 0.613
4 0 NYA 0.364 384 5.14 333 -1.4 334 0.569 9.0 0.594
5 0 LAN 0.340 338 4.13 273 5.2 267 0.609 -9.2 0.581
6 0 DET 0.325 286 4.80 305 21.0 284 0.504 9.0 0.533
7 +5 LAA 0.340 317 4.88 306 -6.7 313 0.506 8.9 0.533
8 -1 TEX 0.339 310 5.23 331 24.0 307 0.504 8.9 0.532
9 +6 KC 0.319 266 4.02 251 -15.2 267 0.499 8.9 0.530
10 +1 MIN 0.340 333 4.95 325 -7.8 333 0.500 9.3 0.527
11 -3 CLE 0.343 356 5.13 343 -15.0 358 0.497 9.4 0.523
12 -2 NYN 0.341 323 4.47 279 -13.0 292 0.548 -8.8 0.521
13 +1 COL 0.324 290 4.05 257 -5.6 263 0.545 -9.0 0.515
14 +4 CHA 0.311 255 4.10 261 -7.9 269 0.476 9.0 0.508
15 -6 PHI 0.346 336 5.19 331 12.8 318 0.527 -8.8 0.501
16 +1 MIL 0.332 310 4.85 315 18.0 297 0.520 -9.2 0.492
17 +4 BAL 0.330 297 4.96 314 -18.2 332 0.446 9.0 0.474
18 +6 ARI 0.312 273 4.21 282 10.6 271 0.503 -9.2 0.472
19 -6 CHN 0.309 244 4.12 251 7.0 244 0.501 -8.5 0.469
20 +2 PIT 0.326 291 4.92 312 16.2 295 0.493 -9.0 0.464
21 -5 ATL 0.316 270 4.11 264 -9.6 274 0.494 -8.9 0.463
22 -3 STL 0.326 290 4.53 295 0.1 295 0.492 -9.2 0.463
23 -3 SEA 0.310 254 4.70 305 8.2 297 0.428 9.0 0.458
24 -1 OAK 0.302 239 4.54 292 -2.2 294 0.406 8.9 0.436
25 0 CIN 0.308 255 4.70 306 18.1 288 0.445 -8.9 0.415
26 +3 FLA 0.322 299 4.84 326 -16.1 342 0.436 -9.3 0.409
27 -1 HOU 0.324 284 5.02 320 -7.6 327 0.432 -8.8 0.405
28 -1 WAS 0.330 302 5.38 336 -18.4 354 0.422 -8.8 0.397
29 +1 SF 0.303 238 4.37 279 -0.6 280 0.427 -9.0 0.396
30 -2 SD 0.317 266 5.10 327 -9.0 336 0.391 -8.9 0.364

 

Offense = wOBA (park-corrected), eRS (estimated runs scored; wRC from FanGraphs, then park adjusted)
Pitching = tRA and tRns are a home-brew version of Graham MacAree's statistic.
Fielding = Fld: average of bUZR (from FanGraphs) and THT's batted balls statistic (converted to runs)
eRA (estimated runs allowed) = Pitching - Fielding
eW%lg = estimated winning percentage within the specific league (AL or NL)
LgAdj = league adjustment (bonus to AL teams, penalty to NL teams, because the AL has superior level of play)
eW% = estimated winning percentage if all teams were in one league (after league adjustment)
Methods provided in more detail in the first post in this series

Team Leaders (asterisks indicate teams improving in specific ranking):

American League
Offense (wOBA): Rays*, Yankees, Red Sox
Pitching (tRA): Royals, White Sox, Red Sox
Fielding (Fld): Rangers, Tigers, Blue Jays*

National League
Offense (wOBA): Phillies, Mets*, Dodgers
Pitching (tRA): Rockies(!)*, Braves, Cubs
Fielding (Fld): Reds*, Brewers, Pirates

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):

American League: E=Rays*, C=Tigers, W=Angels*, WC=Red Sox*
National League: E=Mets*, C=Brewers*, W=Dodgers, WC=Rockies(!)*

Commentary below the jump!

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BtB Power Rankings: Through Tuesday, June 9th, 2009

Roy Halladay's Toronto Blue Jays seem to have righted the ship after a rough spell, and have risen to the top of the BtB Power Rankings.  Can they get back in first place in the AL East while the Yankees and Red Sox beat up on each other this week? (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darren Calabrese)

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Roy Halladay's Toronto Blue Jays seem to have righted the ship after a rough spell, and have risen to the top of the BtB Power Rankings. Can they get back in first place in the AL East while the Yankees and Red Sox beat up on each other this week? (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darren Calabrese)

Welcome to our weekly ranking of all the MLB teams!  In this ranking, we use aggregate team statistics--not team wins, losses, runs scored, or runs allowed--to evaluate the performance of teams to date.  You can think of the estimated winning percentage (eW%) below as how we'd expect teams to fall out if we threw teams with these aggregate statistics into one big league and let them battle it out for thousands of games.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.  All data are park-adjusted when possible.  A legend is below the table, followed commentary about five teams: Red Sox, Cubs, Rockies, Royals, and Cardinals.  I have also added a table this week comparing actual vs. expected run scored and run allowed totals, as well as actual vs. expected winning percentages.

BtB Power Rankings

Rank Chg Team wOBA eRS tRA tRns Fld eRA eW%lg LgAdj eW%
1 +1 TOR 0.346 322 4.53 275 12.1 263 0.595 8.5 0.622
2 -1 TB 0.356 338 4.97 291 12.8 278 0.594 8.3 0.619
3 +3 BOS 0.348 307 4.37 250 -14.2 264 0.571 8.1 0.598
4 0 NYA 0.364 343 5.25 305 5.8 299 0.568 8.1 0.593
5 -2 LAN 0.345 316 4.17 250 4.6 246 0.618 -8.3 0.590
6 -1 DET 0.327 256 4.70 265 17.7 247 0.517 7.9 0.546
7 0 TEX 0.343 291 5.31 304 23.3 280 0.518 8.1 0.545
8 +2 CLE 0.345 317 5.07 297 -16.5 313 0.506 8.3 0.532
9 +2 PHI 0.352 309 5.19 290 13.4 277 0.554 -7.8 0.528
10 -2 NYN 0.341 286 4.33 240 -16.4 256 0.552 -7.8 0.525
11 +1 MIN 0.340 301 5.11 300 -6.6 307 0.490 8.3 0.517
12 +2 LAA 0.330 261 4.86 267 -2.7 270 0.483 7.8 0.511
13 +5 CHN 0.320 240 4.14 226 5.6 220 0.541 -7.6 0.510
14 +8 COL 0.321 253 4.03 228 -6.7 235 0.535 -8.1 0.504
15 -6 KC 0.315 229 4.14 230 -18.5 248 0.463 7.9 0.494
16 +1 ATL 0.319 248 3.99 230 -5.8 236 0.523 -7.9 0.493
17 -1 MIL 0.328 264 4.78 271 18.8 252 0.521 -8.1 0.492
18 -3 CHA 0.310 226 4.20 239 -8.1 247 0.459 8.1 0.490
19 -6 STL 0.324 255 4.46 260 2.8 257 0.496 -8.2 0.467
20 +3 SEA 0.312 231 4.73 275 2.4 272 0.424 8.1 0.453
21 -1 BAL 0.326 256 5.04 284 -16.9 301 0.424 8.1 0.451
22 -3 PIT 0.324 255 5.05 285 16.9 268 0.477 -8.1 0.448
23 +4 OAK 0.306 221 4.58 264 -2.2 266 0.416 7.9 0.445
24 0 ARI 0.309 238 4.31 259 6.7 252 0.474 -8.2 0.443
25 -4 CIN 0.316 242 4.71 274 16.6 257 0.472 -7.9 0.443
26 +2 HOU 0.330 264 5.03 283 -7.4 291 0.453 -7.8 0.426
27 -1 WAS 0.337 284 5.37 299 -20.7 319 0.442 -7.8 0.417
28 -3 SD 0.322 254 5.05 295 -3.4 299 0.424 -8.1 0.397
29 0 FLA 0.317 257 4.89 296 -12.7 308 0.414 -8.3 0.387
30 0 SF 0.304 210 4.48 251 -1.4 252 0.417 -7.9 0.387

Offense = wOBA (park-corrected), eRS (estimated runs scored; wRC from FanGraphs, then park adjusted)
Pitching = tRA and tRns are a home-brew version of Graham MacAree's statistic.
Fielding = Fld: average of bUZR (from FanGraphs) and THT's batted balls statistic (converted to runs)
eRA (estimated runs allowed) = Pitching - Fielding
eW%lg = estimated winning percentage within the specific league (AL or NL)
LgAdj = league adjustment (bonus to AL teams, penalty to NL teams, because the AL has superior level of play)
eW% = estimated winning percentage if all teams were in one league (after league adjustment)
Methods provided in more detail in the first post in this series

Team Leaders (asterisks indicate teams improving in specific ranking):

American League
Offense (wOBA): Yankees, Rays, Red Sox*
Pitching (tRA): Royals, White Sox, Red Sox
Fielding (Fld): Rangers, Tigers, Rays*

National League
Offense (wOBA): Phillies, Dodgers, Mets*
Pitching (tRA): Braves, Rockies*, Cubs*
Fielding (Fld): Brewers*, Pirates, Reds

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):

American League: E=Blue Jays*, C=Tigers, W=Rangers, WC = Rays
National League: E=Phillies*, C=Cubs*, W=Dodgers, WC =Mets

Commentary below the jump!

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PitchFX, Dirt, and Parks

The last two years, I've published rankings of how successful catchers were at blocking balls in the dirt.  I've been leveraging the Pitch FX data from MLB for this analysis, but I haven't really used the full power of the technology.  To this point, I've relied on the Gameday stringers to classify whether a pitch was in the dirt or not. 

Harry suggested that I look beyond the human element and use the more detailed pitch location information to determine when a pitch would hit the dirt.  Luckily for me, he was kind enough to provide a formula that allowed us to figure out at what point the pitch would hit the ground.  After going back and forth on it for a little while, and confirming with some other people, we decided that all pitches that landed within 3 feet behind the front of home plate could be considered to be balls in the dirt.1

In 2008, comparing the scorekeepers to the computer system led to the following difference:

Stringers Pitch FX
13332 23147

So the stringers identified pitches in the dirt only 60% of the time that the Pitch FX system did.   I grew curious about such a great discrepancy (which only got larger if we moved the catcher's location back to -3.5 or -4 feet).

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Quick UZR/PMR Comparison

Now that FanGraphs is publishing MGL's UZR, I wanted to see how the 2008 results compared to David Pinto's PMR (which I converted to runs here).

I ran a quick correlation for each position containing the players qualified according to PMR - those who were on the field for at least 1000 balls in play.

 

Position Correlation
Pitcher NA
Catcher NA
First Baseman 0.71501645
Second Baseman 0.58129407
Third Baseman 0.62672569
Shortstop 0.68798239
Left Fielder 0.74839581
Center Fielder 0.52849967
Right Fielder 0.80255003

There were definitely some issues in center field, and to a lesser extent 2B.  The two systems had a high level of agreement in the corner OF positions. 

The 10 biggest disagreements were:

 

Player Position PMR UZR Diff
Akinori Iwamura 2B -17.25 0.6 17.85
Pedro Feliz 3B -10.19 7.2 17.39
Troy Glaus 3B -13.85 3.3 17.15
Edgar Renteria SS -16.14 0.9 17.04
Jose Reyes SS -18.21 -1.5 16.71
Brad Hawpe RF -21.64 -37.2 15.56
Melvin Mora 3B -17.81 -3 14.81
Torii Hunter CF 4.81 -9.8 14.61
Dan Uggla 2B 14.85 0.3 14.55
Bobby Abreu RF -11.45 -25.2 13.75

Both PMR and UZR were calculated using the Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) data set this season.  I wonder if David or MGL might be able to give some ideas as to where the differences might come from.

 

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2008 Catcher Block Percentage

Last year I began calculating how successful each catcher was at blocking pitches.  I tied together the MLB GameDay data with the Retrosheet play-by-play information to identify how many opportunities each catcher had to make a meaningful block.  I then subtracted away the number of "misses" or wild pitches and passed balls to come up with a percentage of blocked pitches, which I called Catcher Block Percentage.

 

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2008 Defense Behind Pitchers By PMR

Team: PMR / RAA | 1B: PMR / RAA | 2B: PMRRAA | 3B: PMRRAA | SS: PMR / RAA | LF: PMR / RAA | CF: PMR / RAA | RF: PMR / RAA | C: PMR / RAA | P: PMR / RAA |
D Behind P: PMR / RAA

Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions.  PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo).  More information can be found in this post.

Along with the position-by-position numbers, David shares how each pitcher was affected by his defense during the season.  He follows a very similar methodology, determining the number of outs that should have been converted, and comparing those to the outs that were actually converted.

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