Greetings, Beyond the Box Score!  My name is Jesse, and I also write for the Twins over at the SB Nation site Twinkie Town.  For my first post I'm going right to the well, and hitting up my favorite player of baseball's modern era:  Ken Griffey Jr.

Entering his twentieth season, Ken Griffey Jr. is 38 years old.  It's bizarre to realize that baseball's Golden Boy is nearing the end of his career.  Sure, he can play another few years--he can play as long as he wants.  But it's strange knowing that sooner rather than later, those numbers that at one time were skyrocketing at astronomical proportions will cease to climb.  How much longer can The Kid continue his quest for baseball immortality?

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In June of 1998 the New York Yankees chose prep pitcher Mark William Prior in the supplemental portion of the first round - pick 43 overall. A lengthy right hander Prior decided to attend the University of South California rather than sign with the Yankees. A year later Prior was named to the Freshman portion of the All-American team - on the second team.

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I find it fun that Conor Jackson, Adrian Gonzalez, and James Loney are in the same division. The three have similar skill sets and all fall into the class of player that is typified by players of recent vintage such as Mark Grace, John Olerud, Sean Casey, Keith Hernandez, and the early career Rafael Palmiero. All 3 have a history of being very capable when it comes to putting the bat on the ball, sending liners into the gaps. All have had questions surrounding how much power they would produce due to line drive swings. Gonzalez and Loney are both plus defenders and while Jackson isn't any great shakes in the field, I think he'll be alright in the long run.

Jackson is the oldest of the trio, having been born one day before Gonzalez in 1982. He's also the only one who was drafted out of college. He's also had the best K rates and walk rates as a pro.

The isolated slugging percentage is actually a bit impressive in the minors, but it's knocked down a bit by the fact that he went through a lot of hitters parks on the way to Phoenix. Lancaster, El Paso, and Tucson are all outstanding places to be a hitter.

Gonzalez is the one who has demonstrated the most power thus far. He had a nice power spike with San Diego after some people had written him off a player that would never post adequate power numbers.

Loney is the enigma of the group. He's the one who isn't locked in as a major league regular yet. He's 2 years younger than Gonzalez and Jackson. He's currently the one who also plays some outfield. And he has an injury history that is much longer than either of the other two.

PECOTA has some interesting comps for the trio. Ed Kranepool and Chris Chambliss shows up on all three top 20 lists. Gonzalez himself is number 2 on Loney's list after...Kranepool. Kent Hrbek, Justin Morneau, and Gus Bell are all on the Loney and Gonzalez lists. Paul Konerko, Bob Watson, and Mike Ivie are shared by Jackson and Gonzalez. As a rule, these lists are eccentric collections of players. Some of the names on the lists, such as Daryle Ward (#4 on Loney's), Mo Vaughn and Jason Giambi (10, 11 on Jackson's), and Dave Nilsson (15 on Gonzalez's) are terribly informative for this comparison. I do like the collection of players that are shared on the lists as they're illustrative of similarities shared by these 3 young players and tell of the different paths their careers might go down.

Bob Watson is a nice, solid middle baseline. He had a nice run with the Astros as their starting left fielder for the first half of the 70's and then their starting first baseman for the second half before spending his decline phase. In his New Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill James ranks Watson as the 33rd best first baseman of all time, just behind Steve Garvey and Mark Grace, who strangely enough are two of the very first names that cross people's minds when they think of the skill set that players like this possess. The meat of Watson's career was between 1971 and 1978, where pretty much every year he posted a BA over .300, took a good number of walks leading to OBP's generally in the .380-.400 range, and hit approximately 20 home runs annually with a small spike during his peak between '75 and `78 to the mid/upper 20's. And the Astrodome at that point was a very extreme pitcher's park.

Most people are pretty familiar with Chambliss. He haunts the dreams of my fellow Royal fans. He was basically Watson, only less so, posting lower batting averages, fewer home runs, and fewer walks. Hrbek's a good idea of what happens when somebody comes up with this skill set and starts hitting for more power. Fellow Twins player and current AL MVP Morneau fits there as well. Gus Bell was a center fielder back in the 1950's who had a short, but pretty damned good peak from '53 when he broke out with a .300/.354/.525 line while playing a league average center field. Kranepool is what you'd be betting on for any of these guys if you took the "under" on their "over/under" gamble. He had a long career for the Mets, but he never hit for any kind of power and spent most of his career as a part-timer, finishing his career with 5436 career at bats of .261/.316/377 production. Ivie bounced around for a decade or thereabouts, and hit 27 home runs for the Giants in '79, but for the most part, he was more Kranepool than Watson. We're all familiar with Konerko.

PECOTA's long range and short range forecasts for all three project fairly stable commodities and doesn't go out on a limb for any of them. Gonzalez and Jackson get "they are what they are" forecasts with a weighted mean forecast of .289/.355/.481 with a .287 EQA. It doesn't forecast much growth through his peak years, as the highest EQA in his 5 year forecast is a .290. Jackson is more of the same, as it sees a .294/.380/.481, .286 EQA and a couple of very small bumps in 2008 (.296 EQA) and 2011 (.295), but essentially flat growth curves. Loney is projected beneath the 2 established guys, but still likes what it sees in him. .295/.351/.470, .278 EQA would be acceptable in a Dodgers lineup that will probably need steady OBP when (not if) Nomar misses a couple months because of some kind of malady. It likewise doesn't see much growth in Loney over the next half decade, forecasting seasons that are pretty much a carbon copy of what it saw in him this season.

So here's my analysis of the three taken individually. Gonzalez by all measures a pretty good starter right now and it's hard to see a circumstance where he isn't a key part of Padres teams for many years to come. Hitting 24 home runs is a remarkably good sign given the extreme nature of Petco Park, especially against lefties. His walk and K rates coupled with his isolated slugging have trended more and more over the last couple years towards the slugger demographic and away from the Mark Grace/John Olerud class of hitters. Maybe we should have seen this coming when his ISO spiked at Oklahoma City in 2005, as he posted a .223 ISO. It wouldn't surprise me much to see him continue in that direction and end up as more of a .280 hitter who gives you 30 home runs a year. His glove will be a huge asset as he's always received a lot of respect for his skills with the glove and the stats back that up. Maybe he is the guy we all thought Sean Casey would be back when he broke in during the late 90's.

Jackson hasn't ever had that power spike and he doesn't have the plus defense, but he does have a long history of posting impressive walk and K/BB rates, which makes him a potential threat to post abnormally high BA and OBP figures even if he remains a high teens/low 20's per season home run threat. If he does add some power, he could be a beast, posting very high OBP's as pitchers avoid grooving a pitch to him and he sits back and lets them give him a free pass. Edgar Martinez is what can happen when those factors converge.

Loney is the wild card. He has less of a record and I trust Las Vegas hitting numbers about as much as I trust people on infomercials who claim they can cure fatal diseases but the FDA won't let the secrets get out. He's had an injury history that probably has held his power numbers down a bit. However, none of them were chronic, and he shouldn't have any long term effects. He had a wrist injury on a HBP. He broke a finger sliding into second, and then finger after that became infected. And he had a relatively minor knee contusion. I'm not particularly fond of the Garciaparra contract primarily because it blocks Loney, who is ready for prime time and would have sufficient backup in Olmedo Seanz and the option of temporarily moving Jeff Kent over to first and Wilson Betemit to second. As it is, Nomar will probably provide about the same production as Loney would at a much higher price and will probably miss a significant amount of time due to injury. Meanwhile Loney will have to hope for either that inevitable Nomar injury or for the complete collapse of the Luis Gonzalez/Delwyn Young platoon. I think PECOTA may be a bit more conservative about Loney's bat than what I'd be. There's maybe a 10-20 percent chance that Loney takes off and becomes a stud, about that same percentage chance that he stagnates and becomes the next decade's answer to Eric Karros, and the rest of the scenarios I can envision consist of him doing pretty much exactly what PECOTA forecasts, becoming a good OBP source who never is really All Star caliber.

If given the choice, my favorite of the group is Jackson. For fantasy leaguers, he'll be helped by playing in a good hitter's ballpark. You rarely can go wrong with the guy who best controls the strike zone. Loney probably has the most upside given his youth. Gonzalez is a sure thing to be a good player though.

I haven't a clue as to how Seattle OF Jeremy Reed spent his offseason, but I would venture to say that seeing two aging former Washington Nationals reconstituted like dehydrated bananas in the rainy Pacific Northwest made Reed's winter something less than special. Seattle's management signed the ghost of Jose Guillen and his .216/.276/.398 batting line to patrol the grass at Safeco Field this season, effectively replacing Reed.

I started thinking about Reed when I saw his name listed among past "5 players to know" in an early February edition of USA Today's Sports Weekly. The Mariners' main return for sending Freddy Garcia to the White Sox in 2004, the lefty who was once called the best pure hitter and best baserunner in the Big West by Baseball America hit a fantabulous .409/.474/.590 in 66 games at AA Birmingham the year before. Reed was having a meh season in triple A, hitting .275/.357/.420 for the Charlotte Knights when the deal went down. His line improved thanks in part to the hitter-centric PCL to a .305/.366/.455 line through 61 games. He really impressed through an 18 game stint as a call up when he hit .397/.470/.466.

Then 2005 rolled around he Reed had a full time job with the Mariners. That season, through 544 plate appearances, Reed hit a paltry .254/.322/.352, hardly a line you like seeing from a starting outfielder or any starter for that matter (unless you're a Cardinals catcher). He was good enough for a -2.0 VORP and a 2.8 WARP; although, some blamed the pressure associated with playing center field in the big leagues. And, hey, cut the kid some slack right? He's just a rookie. Last season brought nothing but bad luck for Reed. Through 67 games and 229 PAs, he hit just .217/.260/.377 before fracturing his thumb on July 2.

And now Jose Guillen is the choice to replace Reed in the OF. Reed's biggest problem is an inability to hit lefties. Through is short major league career, he's hit just .165/.245/.226 against southpaws, and to be perfectly frank, he hasn't really been much more than serviceable against righties through his MLB career, hitting .274/.332/.398. As a contact hitter (career 85.6% contact rate) he's had some bad luck with BABIPs of .229 in 2006 and .294 in 2005.

As for what will become of Reed, the future looks average, at best. If he can learn to hit lefties well enough to play everyday he may have a nice career as a fourth outfielder or a starter on some of the league's cellar loving teams. His walk rate, just 4.8% last season and just under 8% for his career, makes him, like so many other not very exciting contact hitters, dependent on getting base hits to be of any value. If he could play second base, he might not have to worry about having a full time job, but as an outfielder who gets on base at a very average rate his value takes a big hit. His best hope lies in changing his approach against right-handers enough to put more well hit ground balls - which represented 51% of his batted balls last season -  If he is going to develop, he'll need to do it soon, since at 26 he's heading into the prime of his career.

Except for maybe Augusta National, few institutions are as exclusive as the National Baseball Hall of Fame, albeit for slightly different reasons. Cooperstown honors a tradition of excellence and demands outstanding achievement before one can have a plaque with their likeness displayed there. Lots of good players come and go in the Major Leagues, and Marc's Ray Lankford Wing of the HOF features a roll call of worthy players who fall just short of HOF standards, often due to not meeting the longevity requirement for players making their way to Cooperstown.

Seeing photos of Larry Walker as an instructor in the Cardinals camp this spring got me thinking again about whether or not he's hall-worthy. Let's jump ahead to 2011 and consider his case. Without question, Walker had a great career, posting outstanding numbers along the way. While his case for membership is strong, it is not open and shut.

Through 16 seasons in the majors, Walker collected the NL MVP once in 1997, and over the course of his career was a five time All-Star, won three batting titles, three Silver Sluggers, and seven Gold Gloves. He even found a dead body on his Evergreen, Colorado ranch in 2004 while out with an injury. All of these things, except for the body, will have to be taken into account when the Writers find Larry's name on their ballot. His stats, however, will account for more, so let's jump in there and take a look at Walker's case sabermetrically.

For this exercise, I've used the updated Hall of Fame measures laid out by Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus. JAWS (Jaffe WARP Score) averages adjusted career WARP (wins above replacement player) and a player's peak WARP representing the five best consecutive seasons of their career. Adjustments for injury are allowed, and this was certainly an issue with the oft injured Walker. Clearly, he was at his peak between 1997 and 2002, but I chose `97 through `01 to represent the five best. In 2000, Walker appeared in only 87 games, just over half a full season. Discarding that year, 2002 gets added into the mix. Also included per Jaffe, are Walker's Batting Runs Above Replacement (BRAR), Batting Runs Above Average (BRAA), and Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA). Walker's stats are then compared to the average HOF right fielder's numbers.

                      BRAA  BRAA  FRAA  WARP3  Peak    JAWS
Larry Walker   666    444     87      101       41.2   71.1
Avg HOF RF    754    482     33      110.2    43.3   76.8

As you can see, Walker is below average for HOF RF standards. Let's mention here also that HOF right fielders include some pretty elite company, Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron for instance. Effecting Walker's case for the HOF most is the impact of injuries, essentially limiting him to 12 years worth of playing time over the course of 16 years. However, Walker's numbers do not water down the Hall's standards for right fielders even though he would represent the lower end of that spectrum.

I'm sure that the vast majority of voters from the BBWA don't consult the WARPs and JAWS and BRAA when they vote on players, and that hurts Walker's candidacy. When you look at his impressive resume, you don't see any magic numbers. There's no 500 home runs; he didn't collect 3000 hits. And when you look at his totals, the first thing that comes to mind is the fact that he might well have reached those milestones had his body cooperated. Politics might help his case as voters seek to give the walls in Cooperstown a little Purple. His status as a Colorado Rockie from the basketball score era at Coors may also hurt his case, as voters point to elevation inflated numbers. Of course, his career OPS+ is 140 which takes a little off that argument.

Walker's a classic bubble candidate, in that he can just as easily be voted in as he can be kept out. Injury plagued career or not, he still finished a 17 season career with a .313/.400/.565. He could sneak in because of a few week classes, or he could just as easily suffer Dale Murphy's fate of being on the ballot for years, gradually getting fewer and fewer votes, until the Veterans Committee comes along and puts him in there. Until then, he'll have to settle for the slightly less prestigious but equally as beloved spot in the Lankford Wing.

[this is an update on an article I wrote last spring. -rvb]

He glared, he scowled and he treated pitchers like they killed his hunting dog.  I loved that about Will Clark.  He brought a sweet left-handed swing and an intensity to the game that was rarely seen in the late 80s and early 90s.  He wore eye-black, was a redneck and played the game to win.  He was a bit of a throwback, who was at his best when it counted most.  And from his debut in 1986 to the time he hung `em up in 2000, he was my favorite player.

Road To The Majors

After a distinguished collegiate career at Mississippi State, Will Nuschler Clark, Jr. was selected with the second overall pick in the 1985 draft by the San Francisco Giants.  The 1985 draft was a strong one, with Clark selected behind only B.J. Surhoff and ahead of notables such as Barry Larkin, (former college teammate) Rafael Palmeiro, John Smoltz and future teammate Barry Bonds.

Clark began his professional career in high A-Ball with Fresno of the California League.  As a 21 year-old, he appeared in 65 games while hitting .309/.464/.512.  The high on base percentage was due to his outstanding plate discipline.  He drew 62 walks in roughly 275 plate appearances while striking out only 46 times.

His domination of A-Ball pitching impressed the Giants front office enough they decided to bring Clark north with the big leaguers when they broke camp in the spring of 1986.  But to be honest, the Giants didn't have much choice considering their first basemen the previous year were the instantly forgettable David Green (.248/.301/.347 in 106 games) and the rapidly ageing Dan Driessen (.232/.297/.326 in 54 games after arriving from Montreal in a trade.)  Clark was the future for San Francisco and the future was now.

The San Francisco Years (1986-1993)

Clark's major league debut came against Nolan Ryan and the Houston Astros on April 8, 1986.  Facing a future Hall of Famer in Ryan, didn't phase the rookie as he took the Ryan Express deep in his first professional at bat.  Clark had a flair for the dramatic that way.  Besides that home run, he homered in his first professional at bat in A-Ball and he also homered in his home debut in Candlestick.  Plus, by the time The Thrill called it a career, he had hit a total of six home runs off Ryan, the most against any pitcher he faced.

The home run in his first professional at bat was the start of a great run as a Giant.  Thrill's best seasons came early in his career.

What many people don't realize, is that for five years from 1988 to 1992, Clark was one of the best all around players in the game.  Thanks to his durability, he appeared in 767 games (out of a possible 810) over those five years and posted a split of .302/.379/.503.  From that era, only one player ranks in the top 10 in all three categories:  Will The Thrill.

In fact, a surprising number of players enjoyed their peak seasons from 1988-1992.  Here's a list of some notables who had their best five consecutive years during that span, sorted by WARP3:

That's a very impressive group of players who enjoyed their best years together.  Aside from Clark, three are in the Hall of Fame, one should be, one is a lock when he becomes eligible and one is Fred McGriff.  And no one was better during that span than Will Clark.

His finest single season came in 1989.  In leading the Giants to 92 wins and the NL West division title, Clark hit an incredible .333/.407/.546 while scoring 104 runs with 70 extra base hits and an OPS+ of 175.  Bill James credits Clark with an incredible 44 Win Shares for the 1989 season.  It wasn't just the best performance in the league that year.  It was one of the top performances of the decade.

Here's how Clark's 1989 season stacks up with other great individual performances of the decade:

(It's interesting to note that of those seasons, only Schmidt in 1981 and Yount in 1982 won the MVP Award.  But that's another argument for another day.)

Not only was Clark's 1989 performance one of the best of the 1980's, it was one of the greatest individual seasons by a first baseman in the history of the game:

And Clark capped off his incredible 1989 season with one of the best postseason performances in memory in the NLCS against the Cubs.  In Game One of the series he single-handedly destroyed Greg Maddux, hitting a run scoring double in the first, a solo home run in the third and a grand slam in the fourth.  He also drove in the runs that clinched the series for the Giants in Game Five and defensively threw out three runners at the plate over the five games.  For the series, Clark hit .650 with 8 runs scored and 8 RBI in leading the Giants to the World Series for the first time since 1962.

The Thrill was not only at his best offensively in San Francisco, he was at the top of his game defensively as well.  His average Rate (and Rate2) in his Giant years was 107 and he finished above 100 every season.  He won a grand total of one Gold Glove for his efforts (in 1991), losing out to perennial defensive wizard Keith Hernandez early in his career and to Mark Grace at the end of his time with the Giants.  The Gold Gloves are among the most subjective awards you can find in the game.  Just because Clark only has one to his credit, doesn't mean he wasn't great.  He was certainly among the top fielders at his position in the late 80s to the early 90s.

But by the end of 1993, the once durable Clark began to battle a variety of nagging injuries, most notably bone chips in his elbow.  For a player who appeared in 320 consecutive games from September 1987 to August 1989, he began to miss a handful of games here and there.  He played in 154 games in 1990 and followed that up with seasons of 148, 144 and 132.  Not only that, the injuries began to sap his power.  

He enjoyed a couple of good power seasons based on ISO, but from 1990 to 1993, he only had one season that could be described as good.  And by 1993, he had fallen dangerously close to league average where he would remain for most of the remainder of his career.  

1993 was a key season for Will Clark and the Giants in many ways.  San Francisco led the Braves by as many as 9.5 games as late as August 7, only to go into a slide and give up over 13 games to Atlanta by September 17.  It didn't help that The Thrill was in the lineup in only 16 games during that span.  And when Clark was in the lineup, his .283/.367/.432 season was his least productive season since his rookie year.

The bitter taste of a lost pennant in 1993, combined with what management perceived as Clark's declining production led the first baseman to enter the free agent market.

Clark, Texas Ranger (1994-1998)

Seeking a fresh start, The Thrill moved closer to home and signed with the Texas Rangers for five years and over $26.6 million.  Moving from a ballpark (Candlestick) that heavily favored pitchers, to a home field that was essentially hitter-neutral (during the season's he played there) helped Clark rejuvenate his career.  He rebounded nicely from his dismal 1993 to post a split of .329/.431/.501 with an OPS+ of 140 (which was the tenth best in the AL) in the strike-shortened season of 1994.

But after the 1994 season he began to miss serious amounts of playing time.  He missed 21 games in 1995, 45 games in 1996 and 52 games in 1997.  The former iron man of the San Francisco Giants was turning into paper mache for the Rangers.  Bone chips in his elbow in 1996, a strained wrist at the beginning of 1997 and torn fascia in his right heel at the end of 1997 all limited his plate appearances and his effectiveness.

Indeed, the years from '95 to '97 were the "lost years" for The Thrill.  His splits of .303/.388/.470 are consistent with his career totals, but are unimpressive in the context of the era when home runs and doubles were flying around the yard at a record pace.  Despite the lack of power, his OBP showed he could still be a useful player.  As shown by this chart illustrating his BB/K ratio, he became more selective at the plate during his time in Texas, peaking with an outstanding ratio in 1995, and staying well above average during his time with the Rangers.

But factoring in his new home stadium, new league and the offensive explosion that occurred in the late 90s, it's interesting to note that Clark's power numbers didn't seem to benefit.  For his career with the Rangers covering five seasons, Clark hit only 77 home runs.  His OPS+ during his time in Texas was 125, which is well below his career average of 138.  And his WARP3 ranged from a high of 6.7 in his first season with the Rangers in 1994 to a low of 4.6 in 1996.  In his five seasons with the Rangers, his WARP3 was 27.2, or an average of 5.4 per year.

Besides, he hit fewer home runs during that span ('94-'98) than Eric Karros (134) and Ed Sprague (99), which doesn't bode well for anyone's Hall of Fame chances.  

It was also during this time that his formerly rock solid defense began to suffer.  Perhaps it was the injuries limiting his effectiveness or maybe it was sharing an infield with Dean Palmer, but whatever the reason, Clark posted three seasons with a Rate below 100 while with the Rangers, including a career-low of 90 in 1994.  

Moving On (1999-2000)

Following the 1998 season, Clark signed a two-year $11 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles. Charged with replacing former Mississippi State teammate Palmerio for the second time in his career, The Thrill had a dismal 1999 season.  

Hampered again by a bum elbow, his only full season in Baltimore was forgettable.  Hitting .303/.395/.482 with a career low WARP3 of 3.2 and an OPS+ of 124, it ranks among the least productive seasons in his career.  And it certainly wasn't what the Orioles were expecting.  So even after hitting .301/.413/.473 over the first four months in 2000, the Orioles had seen enough.  At the trading deadline, they shipped The Thrill to the Cardinals who were in a pennant race and needed cover for an injured Mark McGwire.

Rejuvenated by the trade, The Thrill had one of the best stretches of his career, posting a split of .345/.426/.655 over 51 games.  Most amazingly, the power that had all but disappeared returned in a big way for the Cardinals.  The Cards went 37-20 after he joined the team and Clark banged 12 home runs in his two months in St. Louis, an average of a round tripper every 14.25 at bats, much better than his career average of a home run about every 25 at bats.  St. Louis, who held a four game lead when Clark joined the team, went 37-20 and won the division by 10 games.  In the playoffs that October, Clark played like it was 1989 all over again, hitting .345/.441/.621 with 2 home runs and 6 runs scored in 8 games.  It was a fitting end to a fine career.

A Hall of Fame Career

Will The Thrill made a grand total of one appearance on the ballot and received 23 votes or 4.4%.  It was a ridiculously low number for someone who was such a great player.  

Consider the careers of the last five first basemen elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA compared with Clark.

For the purposes of the table, I'm using each player's best five consecutive seasons as their "Prime."  Looking at this list, it's difficult to understand why The Thrill was so convincingly denied membership in the Hall.  His prime years were better than any of this bunch and his overall WARP3 totals compare very favorably.  And according to Jay Jaffe's JAWS system, Clark stacks up very well with the players in the list, not to mention the entire class of first basemen enshrined in the Hall.  The average JAWS score for first basemen in the Hall of Fame is 84.5 while the average WARP3 is 103.2.  

Here's something else in Clark's favor.  He walked away from the game after playing some of his best baseball in years.  He was 36 when he appeared in his final game and had a WARP3 of 6.7 in 2000, which was his highest since 1994.  Most of the guys on this list hung on (racking up the attractive milestones) well past their prime.  Harmon Killebrew was done after the 1972 season, but played for three more years.  Willie McCovey's decline was incredibly painful, lasting over five seasons.  No question, Eddie Murray was a great player and worthy of inclusion, but he limped to the finish line.  And Tony Perez overstayed his welcome by at least five seasons.  

Then there is the postseason and "clutch" factor.  In his career, Clark played in 31 playoff and World Series games, hitting .333/.409/.547 with 20 runs scored and 14 extra base hits.  While I've already discussed his 1989 and 2000 postseason heroics, he also had a solid NLCS in 1987, hitting .360/.429/.560.  He also had a couple of entirely forgettable ALDS while with the Rangers.  To be fair, many Ranger fans would like to forget those series as well.

Clark's numbers with runners in scoring position are very similar to his overall career stats.  With RISP Clark hit .306/.407/.498 and with RISP and two outs, Clark hit .290/.431/.477.  In fact, all of Clark's situational "clutch" numbers are surprisingly consistent with his overall career stats.  It plays into his legend:  That Will The Thrill approached each at bat with the same level of intensity no matter the situation.

If Clark had chosen to play just three more seasons, it's not unconceivable that he would have added 375 hits, 80 more doubles and 50 home runs to his career totals.  Perhaps the padded career stats would have appealed to the writers.  But as it is, his career stands on it's own and is very clearly Hall of Fame worthy.

Since Clark dropped off the Hall of Fame ballot after only one appearance and has to depend on the Veteran's Committee, it's incredibly doubtful that he will ever have a plaque in Cooperstown.  That's unfortunate because The Thrill belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Contrary to what you might have thought, there was no wide-spread conspiracy to make this "Orioles Week" here at BtB, and I'm sure that our Nielsen numbers (if we had any) in Baltimore and the mid-Atlantic region are perfectly acceptable. With Jeff's Orioles preview and Barten's Dave Haehnel profile, the chips just happened to fall in that order this week.

You can blame some sort of weird psychic connection among the BtB team, but since I haven't paid my Madame Chloe bill in 60 days, it's highly unlikely. Rich Lederer's categorization of pitchers by batted ball types and strikeout rates sparked my interest in Adam Loewen. Balitmore's touted pitching prospect was lumped into the high ground ball rate and high K rate group, with familiar names such as Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, and other pitchers easily identified as front of the rotation type guys, if not outright superstars. Loewen's name on that list prompted a double take, then a spit take, followed at last by the decision to explore this matter further.

Loewen sported a GB% of 48.5% and an astonishing K/9 of 7.85 through 112+ inning pitched last season. In spite of those numbers, which typically portend great things, Loewen finished the season with a lousy 5.37 ERA and a 6-6 record. Now, I'll be the first to tell you that we sabermetric nerds don't put much stock in those anachronistic stats, but it's impossible not to wonder just how in the world a 22-year-old kid with such a high rate of grounders and prodigious ability to strike batters out fared so poorly.

Here's his line from last season (once again using my patented "hillbilly chart").

6-6, 5.37 ERA, 22 G, 19 GS, 112.1 IP, 111 H, 72 R, 67 ER, 8 HR, 62 BB, 98 K

And the peripherals,

7.85 K/9, 4.97 BB/9, 1.58 K/BB, 0.64 HR/9, .320 BABIP, 4.25 FIP

Look at that HR rate, 0.64 per nine innings! Pitchers would kill to have a HR like that. His FIP rescues him somewhat from the dustbin of mediocrity as well, but the real problem, as you can see, is Loewen's propensity to hand out walks like Oprah hands out cashmere sweaters. He walked over 12% of the 504 batters he faced with the O's last season.

Now those of you familiar with the Adam Loewen saga already know how the Orioles had to scramble to sign him before he slipped away and back into the draft, after lowballing the 4th overall pick in 2002 with a $2.5 million offer. At H-Hour, they signed him to a major league contract for a guaranteed value exceeding $4 million. That deal of course stipulated he had to be on the O's major league roster come opening day 2007, just hop, skip and jump down the calendar now. My how time flies. That stipulation won't be much of an issue now since he put in considerable time in the majors last season; however, it does put some pressure on the kid and the O's since that clause implied that he would be ready to step into the high profile role that Baltimore carved out for him back in 2002.

Throughout the 112 innings he pitched last season, Loewen at times showed the flashes of brilliance that made him worthy of a 4th overall pick as well as displaying the control problems that led to a number of frustrated fans questioning the wisdom of that pick. Take his last start of the season as a microcosm of the Adam Loewen enigma.

September 30, versus the Red Sox, Loewen starts off with a 1-2-3 first, and follows that up with a 1-2-3 second. At that point he's K'd one, induced 4 ground ball outs, and a fly out to center. Things continue to go well through the 3rd and 4th, as he racks up another 3 K, 4 ground outs, while walking just one. Things start to head south in the fifth. He walks a batter to lead off the inning, walks another one, and then loads the bases on a single to right. With the bases loaded and the insidious thoughts starting to creep into the young lefty hurler's head, he walks in a run. With one out, he then gets the DP, and the O's escape Loewen's three walk inning still leading 3-1.

And so begins the sixth. Loewen gets Lowell to ground out, before giving up a Manny home run. He then walks Will Go Round In Circles Mo Pena, who Trot "Don't Call Me Richard" Nixon sends home with a double. That's how Loewen's day and his 2006 ended, with flashes of brilliance and an ugly control problem, the twin memes that have followed him throughout his pro career, laid bare for all to see.

So what will the Brown and Orange clad baseball fans suffering through the stifling mid-Atlantic summer see out of Adam Loewen in 2007? Good question. As the esteemed Mr. Lederer pointed out, it's quite reasonable to expect improvement based on such exceptional GB% and K rates (he calls for an ERA at least half a run lower). But the control issues put the projections all over the map.

The most optimistic is the Marcel projection, which postulates this line:

4.62 ERA, 111 IP, 110 H, 57 ER, 10 HR, 50 BB, 93 K
7.54 K/9, 4.05 BB/9, 4.21 FIP, .81 HR/9

ZiPS is the least optimistic.

4.89 ERA, 171 IP, 170 H, 93 ER, 14 HR, 92 BB, 131 K
6.89 K/9, 4.84 BB/9, 4.35 FIP, .74 HR/9

And PECOTA takes the middle ground. Their projection is based in part on an increased GB% of 51%.

4.76 ERA, 166 IP, 167 H, 15 HR, 89 BB, 136 K
6.9 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9

All of those projections slate Loewen for the improvement expected based on his K and GB rates as well as make him a better than average starter...especially in the AL East.

Of course the biggest question is whether or not Loewen can get his control issues, well, under control. (puns remain lazy writing). I'm not in the Leo Mazzone equals miracle worker camp, but the success he and the O's coaching staff had with helping Bedard work out kinks in his changeup and use it more effectively should be a beacon of hope for tormented O's fans. He's got the fastball and a sweet curve, and a more effective changeup and slider, pitches he does throw, could really help him out. Of course, better pitches will inevitably mean more balls in the strike zone, which will take away some from such a glorious HR rate and allow more hits as more balls are put into play. It will also mean a shrinking K rate; however, all of those things will be much easier to live with than the self-defeating high walk rates.

Oh, and he's only 23, which helps with the whole positive outlook thing too.

A question I'm asked frequently as an amateur baseball writer, is quite simply "why?" Why go out of your way toiling over data, combing the web for still more information, and putting your thoughts out there for a tiny smattering of like-minded individuals (i.e. nerds) for no easily discernable reason when most fans are content to watch 162 games, slap a pennant on their wall and call it good? Outside of my canned, "I could start drinking again" response, I don't have the answer to that somewhat existential question.

But sometimes I do have an answer. And when someone asked me that same question upon seeing Mark Teahen stat sheet print outs across my desk I was able to say, "I kind of feel like I owe this guy." You see, last season I was in yet another fantasy league, and after a hot start that ran through May, my hopes, predictably, headed straight for toilet. Rolling up some combination of the treasury notes used for the $150 entry fee and smoking them seemed like a more sensible thing to do as the baseball season entered the summer doldrums.

Combing the waiver wire in an attempt to keep a promise that I wouldn't "waste" any more money on fantasy as we scrimped pennies to flee an exhausting life far away from home in the nation's capitol, I came across Mark Teahen. The Royals' third baseman was just getting into a red hot June, and I snatched him up with the idea of riding his hot streak until it ended. Except it didn't end. He just kept producing and producing. Eventually, shoulder problems ended his season, but his sturdy presence saved mine. And so I wondered, was the guy for real and could he again be a rock for whatever version of the Fightin' Scumballs I would assemble this season? I owed it to myself to find out, and just maybe I could say thanks to the guy along the way.

Year   batting line       K%     BB%   Contact Rate   XBH%
2005  .246/.309/.376   22%   8.2%    76%                36%
2006  .290/.357/.517   19%   9.2%    78%                40%

Minors
2003  .283/.377/.380    21%   12%    75%
2004 (combined)          23%   10%    74%

Teahen started off last season hitting .219/.271/.406 through the first month, and before May closed, he was back in Omaha. During a 24 game stint in Eastern Nebraska, Teahen hit .380/.500/.658 after jumping out to a worrisome 2-23 start. Back in AAA, Teahen worked out issues with his swing as well as a crash course in plate discipline, and he was back in Kansas City within the month. (Craig Brown has a great piece at THT from 9/11/06 looking at the three parts of Teahen's 2006). The 3% drop in his K% and the 1% rise in his walk rate are solid evidence that he found something infectious in learning improved plate discipline and settling into a consistent swing.

Okay, that's great, but is he likely to sustain his 2006 numbers? And for a guy who never had more than 14 long balls in a full season, where did the 18 major league home runs come from?

First, the home runs. Without a doubt the changes in his approach that made helped him pull the ball helped. As the THT article cited above notes, 12 of his 18 homers went to right or right center. His new approach allowed him to put more umph into his swing. (Check out this home run from September 1, 2006, here). The change impacted his overall ability to hit for extra bases, as noted in the 4% increase in his XBH% between 2005 and 2006.

In an article that appeared in the New York Times Magazine in April 2005, Michael Lewis noted (as well as in the book Moneyball) Teahen's lack of power keeping him low on ranked scouting lists along with his marked preference for pitches outside. Teahen's new, successful approach addressed this, and the ability to hit those inside pitches was a key part of his rehabilitation as a ball player. Note the inside location of the pitch in the video clip linked to above. What happened that made it different from the approach employed by Oakland or the session with George Brett that Lewis mentions his article, I don't know. After putting up with years of schooling in my own right, I think that a person receives so much instruction that it takes some time away from being taught for the dissonance to fade and knowledge to sink into the subconscious. Teahen certainly seems to have carried a determination himself that slowed the learning process as well.

Batted ball data reveals Teahen's changes at the plate, and the difference is mind blowing.

            LD%      GB%      FB%      BABIP
2005    23.2%    53.1%    23.7%    .309
2006    15.9%    48.7%    35.4%    .331

Look at the dramatic leap in his fly ball percentage, almost a 12% jump! Combined with his new found ability to pull the ball, his fly ball rate ensured more round trippers.

As for the question about whether or not Teahen's magical 2006 season is repeatable, the batted ball data makes you wonder. The high fly ball rate and the drop in his line drive rate, makes one think that his batting average will drop some, and his walk and contact rates aren't consistent with a true .300 hitter anyway.  His BABIP also shows that he had a little luck on his side last year. It's logical to assume the XBH% will remain, but the .500+ SLG doesn't seem as likely based on the drop in total hits. Still, it's not a stretch to envision good things for Teahen. The changes in his game are for real. PECOTA agrees, forcasting a .283/.357/.475 line for the much profiled player in 2007.

A move to Kansas City's crowded outfield and successful recovery from shoulder surgery pending, Teahan's always got a spot reserved for him on my fantasy team.

Teagarden was a bit of a story in 2005 after being drafted out of the University of Texas. The righty catcher hit the ground running in Spokane. He had been drafted as a defense and batting average/OBP player in the third round. However he smacked 7 home runs and drew 23 walks in a mere 96 at bats. Sample size be damned, that's a nice little show of secondary skills for a guy who didn't exactly pose a potent long ball threat in college. Baseball America loved him and ranked him as the #9 prospect in the Rangers system before this season.

Unfortunately he underwent Tommy John surgery after the 2005 season. The surgery, along with a stress fracture in his back cost him his 2006 season.

The stats paint a picture of a hitter who has good plate discipline. I think the slugging percentages from 2005 with both UT and Spokane are a bit misleading. He isn't a power hitter. Spokane is a bit of a hitter's park and he's more advanced than the competition. He should be able to hit for a passable average and he might rap some doubles into the gaps. He's not a particularly strong bat, but adjusted for position he isn't a bad one. Teagarden's calling card as a player has been his defense. He has a quick release, a strong arm, he's well regarded for his ability to block the plate, dig balls out of the dirt, and call a game. There literally is nothing that scouts don't like when it comes to his defense. When coupled with his batting, this is the picture of an ideal backup catcher. The elephant in the room here is the injury issues. If he loses some of his defensive ability, he's a much less appealing prospect. If it forces him back from behind the plate, it makes him a non-prospect as he doesn't have the bat to make it as a 1B/DH. If he comes back from the injuries as good as new, then he's a decent but not great prospect.

If you want to picture his ceiling, think Jason LaRue with a few more walks and a few less home runs. The downside is Guillermo Quiroz. For a midrange, you can look for maybe something on the order of Yadier Molina.

Nothing has changed since my Barry Zito profile was published over at Baseball Prospectus, so I refer you to that for my view of Zito. One thing that I should say though, San Francisco definitely has a park built for Zito, although it is not as suited for him as Oakland's was due to having less foul ground. It should help reign his flyballs in about the same though, which will be important in keeping Zito somewhat effective. Of course, moving to the National League, which is more of a Three True Outcomes -- homeruns, walks, and strikeouts -- league is not going to help Zito, who gives up homeruns, walks a ton of batters and doesn't strike out many guys.

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