The Blue Jays are reportedly close to signing Darren Oliver, which gives me an excuse to write about him. Darren Oliver has been in the majors for eighteen years, and it would be nineteen had he not missed all of 2005. You might think that's a long career, and well, you're absolutely right. Since 1901, there have been just 106 pitchers to appear in at least 18 seasons, and Oliver is now one of 'em.

He broke into the majors in 1993 with the Texas Rangers, throwing a total of 3.1 innings. Since then, he's appeared in 654 games spanning his career, 229 of which he started. Oliver's career as a starter, at first glance, was pretty mediocre. Opposing hitters owned a .290/.360/.462 total slash line against Oliver in his starts, which -- not accounting for park/league factors -- is Ron Santo-esque. But the thing is, park/league factors are of paramount importance, especially for a guy like Oliver. He spent a lot of his time in hitter-friendly stadiums, in an era dominated by offense, and his numbers were accordingly bloated. Just perusing Fangraphs' WAR column for Oliver's years as a starter, you can see that he really wasn't all that bad.

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After calling up their top hitting prospect this fall, the Yankees now find themselves in the interesting position of finding a place in the order for the young and talented Jesus Montero.

Most scouts and analysts agree that Montero is not ready to be an everyday catcher in the big leagues (whether he ever will be is another question, entirely). However, there seems to be equal agreement about his skills at the plate. With Jorge Posada likely not returning, the Yankees will have an opening at DH in 2012. The question before them is whether to give that spot to Montero.

This got me thinking: What is the precedent for giving a first-year player significant time at DH?

Looking back through the data, there isn't much of a precedent.

Since the introduction of the DH, only three players have DH'd in over 50% of their games played during their first season in the majors:

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Last night, Jorge Posada went two for four in what could quite possibly be his last game as a Yankee, or perhaps the last game of his career. 2011 marks the end of a four-year $52MM contract he signed with the Yankees back in 2007, and with Jesus Montero now ready for the majors, chances are that New York won't bring Posada back. In any event, he had quite the impressive ALDS, reaching base 11 times in 19 plate appearances on six hits, four walks, a hit-by-pitch. 

Posada is one of the few remaining "lifers" in baseball -- that is, he's spent his entire career as a member of the New York Yankees. And what a fine career it's been. In 16 seasons, he's played in a grand total of 1829 games; he's earned five All-Star nods, five Silver Sluggers, and finished in the top-ten in MVP voting twice -- finishing as high as third in 2003. Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter, who have been Posada's teammates for the last decade and a half, are highly celebrated, and for good reason -- both are essentially first-ballot Hall of Famers. But Posada has also put up fantastic numbers over his career, and should receive strong consideration for the Hall of Fame.

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Note: Upon further reflection, the earlier version of this piece was probably a bit too harsh. But, hey, I admit it. I've edited the post to reflect that. Everyone gets a bit too fired up from time to time. I'm no different.

The Yankees pulled even with the Tigers in the ALDS last night with a 9-1 victory on the road.

Toeing the rubber for the Yankees in this critical game was the Bronx-version of John Lackey--a highly paid free agent pitcher that has, at a minimum, not lived up to their contract, and has often exited games much earlier than the Yankees and their fans would like.

Burnett lasted 5 and 2/3 innings last night and left the game with only a single run allowed against the Tigers. 

This morning, ESPN.com featured a story about the game with the following tease: "Turns out New York had nothing to fear. A.J. Burnett? Good. The Yankees? Even better."

Maybe I'm just overly sensitive (which I admit I might be), but I think Burnett's performance was just as much about luck as it was about him being "good". Despite allowing only one run during his 5+ innings of work, Burnett was fortunate to escape without further damage, especially given how he pitched.

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It's no secret John Lackey has been bad this year. Really bad. Like, how in the world is this guy still pitching for a playoff-contender bad.

For some perspective, Lackey is on pace to post the 8th worst ERA+ since 1901 for a pitcher who started over 25 games. Lackey's ERA+ of 65 was bested or equaled by only four other modern-era pitchers: Manny Parra in 2009, Mike Moore in 1995, and Jose Lima in 2005. 

But Lackey's 6.49 ERA is much higher than his 4.76 FIP. In fact, Lackey has the largest difference between his ERA and FIP (+1.73) of any starter this year.

Part of the difference can be explained by Lackey's BABIP, which currently stands at an absurd .340. Not surprisingly, Lackey boasts one of the worst LD% against among starters (22.7%). Combine that with the fact that the Red Sox are the third best defensive team according to UZR and it's clear that BABIP is not largely a luck issue for Lackey this year.

Clearly, Lackey has regressed as a pitcher, but this regression might not have been as bad if he were still pitching for the Angels.

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Last night, the Yankees Mariano Rivera saved his 602nd game, breaking the career mark set by Trevor Hoffman. Articles and commentary are all aflutter noting that with this record Rivera has solidified his place as the greatest reliever of all time.

I think that's silly.

Even if Rivera had never saved a single game, one could easily demonstrate that Mo was by far the most dominant reliever the league has ever seen.

Let's take a look at ERA+. ERA+ presents a pitcher's earned run average as a percent of league average. So an ERA+ of 102 means that a pitcher's ERA was two percent better than the league average. The chart above shows the ERA+ for the top-25 relievers of all time over the course of their careers (IP >= 1000).

Notice anything? Yes, Mariano Rivera isn't only the owner of the best ERA+ ever for a reliever, but it isn't even close. In fact, his ERA+ of 205 is the best ever by a wide margin for any pitcher that threw more than 1000 innings.

Not enough for you? Ok, let's move on to FIP, K/BB, and WHIP.

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Now that Joe Mauer's season is most likely over (after only 333 plate appearances) , let's take a look at how it stacks up to his career and perhaps visually answer whether his best days might be behind him:

Let's get this out of the way: he had a bit of an unlucky year, but not his unluckiest.

2011 looks more like the average year for Mauer, with 2009 being the anomaly -- but this year is definitely his worst for his best skill (getting on base).

Isolating his falling walk rate really shows where Mauer has apparently peaked. But wait until you see this:

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