[Note: I'll be doing AL team previews this spring; as regular readers know, RJ has a head start on me, but keep an eye out for the remaining 13 AL teams, as I go from best '07 record to worst.]

2007 W-L:  96-66
2007 Pythag W-L: 101-61
2007 Payroll: $143MM
2008 Payroll: ~$150MM

Coming: Sean Casey

Going: Eric Hinske, Brendan Donnelly, Eric Gagne

Sliding In:

They won the World Series in convincing style, and they're back, almost unchanged.  Keeping the team together as is isn't a sentimental move: it's a product of long-term deals in progress, key players still in their arbitration (or even pre-arb) years, and some role players who want to stick around.  There are no guarantees in the AL East, but it'd be hard to bet against these guys repeating their way into the playoffs, at the very least.

Offense:

The last Red Sox World Champions were known for their offensive attack; this time, it wasn't so dramatic.  The '07 Sox were 3rd in the league in run scoring, just behind the Tigers and way behind the Yankees.  Adjusted for park, it's a little less impressive, as Fenway played even more hitter-friendly than usual last year.

The advantage, naturally, is that there's plenty of room to improve.  Mike Lowell was the only regular to far outperform expectations; Pedroia and Varitek probably beat out plenty of projections too, but not by the same margin.  The glaring holes in the offense were up the middle, in Julio Lugo and Coco Crisp.  

Neither Lugo nor Crisp is likely to turn things around and win a Silver Slugger, but neither is likely to head further south, either.  Lugo posted a career-worst OPS+ of 65, thanks largely to a sub-300 OBP.  Crisp was closer to respectable, but is still 28 years old with two above-average offensive seasons behind him.  What's more, Jacoby Ellsbury is around to push him; Ellsbury isn't going to keep hitting .353, but if Crisp's bat slips, there's no reason to give him another 500+ ABs in 2008.

The player who could provide this offense the biggest lift is the one who ranked second in 2007 in OPS+: Manny Ramirez.  Strange as it is to say, his .296/.388/.493 performance was something of a disappointment, and it was by far his worst campaign since he established himself as a regular more than a decade ago.  For the first time in recent memory, the pre-season noise regarding Manny is positive, so perhaps that $20MM 2009 option will lead Manny to another 150-160 OPS+.

The X-factor is team health.  Of the projected starters, Jason Varitek had the fewest ABs with 435, and even the usual subs were ready to go when needed.  J.D. Drew is, of course, always a question mark, and while there aren't many other health risks on the team, the downside of bringing the same team back is that everyone is a year older, and with enough 30-somethings on the team, bad luck happens.

But as long as major injuries don't strike, it's hard to imagine this team scoring fewer than 850 runs, and it's easy to dream up a scenario where they once again see the sunny side of 900.

Starting Rotation:

As with the starting lineup, the 2007 starting rotation is back.  There's better news here, though: while all five guys are available, it's highly unlikely that they'll all return to the rotation.

Of course, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, and Curt Schilling will all be back, and Tim Wakefield will probably get his share of starts.  But, for those of you who have (mercifully) forgotten, Julian Tavarez started 23 games for the '07 Sox, and unless disaster strikes, he shouldn't top 3 starts in '08.

The difference is youth: Jon Lester is healthy and able to contribute, and Clay Buchholz's September audition strongly suggested he's ready to pitch in the bigs.  It was surely tempting for the Sox to part with one of those (and others) to acquire Johan Santana, but if both Lester and Buchholz perform up to expectations, the Sox could have the best rotation in the league anyway.

Of course, when talking about starting rotations, it's dangerous, and often just plain wrong, to say something like "if all goes well," so I'm not about to put my money down on a team ERA of 3.50.  But, when Wakefield is your 6th starter, and Tavarez (yes, a 5.15 ERA, but that's a 92 ERA+ in Fenway) behind him, it's really hard to be negative about this group.

The rotation was very good in 2007, and it is likely to be better in 2008.

Bullpen:

If there's one aspect of the 2007 Red Sox's performance that screams, "Regression!" it's the core of the bullpen.  The top six of Papelbon, Okajima, Lopez, Timlin, Snyder, and Delcarmen combined for about 320 innings and none of them had an ERA above 4.00.  (Paps, Okajima, and Delcarmen were all below 2.25.)

I'm not saying those guys aren't good, but except for Papelbon and maybe Okajima, they are almost certainly not that good.  Timlin will be 42, and while he's likely to be solid, he's equally like to take a step back; Snyder came out of nowhere to be a credible reliever; and as with the starting lineup, once some early-season jumbling was over, the bullpen stayed remarkably healthy.

This will still be a good bullpen, though.  For one thing, there won't be 20 innings of utter crap from Eric Gagne.  There'll be no messing around with Joel Pineiro, either.  Since we are talking about relievers, someone will get hurt, and somebody like David Aardsma will show up and underwhelm for a few weeks, but because of the depth of the pen, Terry Francona isn't likely to hand any important innings to the Pineiro of 2008.

And, while Pepto-Bismol sales will suffer for it, there will be no reason to trade for next year's Eric Gagne, either.

The Hook

There are really only two scenarios in which the Red Sox don't again go deep into the playoffs.  The more likely of the two is that team health doesn't hold up.  A pair of injuries to, say, Manny and Beckett wouldn't cripple the team, but it would make this group look a lot more like a 90-win crew than a 100-win one.

The other reflects the fact that the Red Sox don't play in a bubble.  Once again, there will be four very solid teams in two divisions, and among the Yankees, Sox, Indians, and Tigers, it's very possible that a 95-game winner will be left out of the playoffs.  I would guess that the Sox will outperform at least one of those other teams, but you can make rosy projections for the Yanks, Indians, and Tigers too.

My foolish prediction: 98 wins and a loss in the ALCS.

Philadelphia Phillies
2007 W-L: 89-73
2007 Pythag W-L: 87-75
2007 Payroll: ~89
2008 Payroll: ~84 (depends heavily on Ryan Howard arbitration case)

Coming: Chad Durbin, Pedro Feliz, Geoff Jenkins, So Taguchi, Brad Lidge, Eric Bruntlett, Chris Snelling

Going:Tadahito Iguchi, Jon Lieber, Aaron Rowand, Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, Chris Roberson

Sliding In:

The Phillies were the first playoff victims of the rolling Colorado Rockies, getting swept 3-0 in the Division Series.

Offense:
Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins form perhaps the best offensive infield in the National League. Howard is 27 and while he didn't hit 58 homeruns like 2006 he was still pretty damn good, not .313/.425/.659 good, but .268/.392/.584 was good enough for fifth in Most Valuable Player voting and the fifth best OPS from a first baseman.

Utley lead second basemen in OPS, and Rollins finished second to Hanley Ramirez. With the average age of the holy trinity of offensive threats being around 28 that puts each player in their assumed "prime", suggesting the Phils should have another huge year from each barring injuries or unforeseen falloffs.

Pedro Feliz doesn't add much offensive value, but his glove is solid, and it's not like he can do much worse than Abraham Nunez or Wes Helms did last year. Carlos Ruiz should be solid enough behind the plate, and Chris Coste will back him up with Rod Barajas up in Canada. On the bench ex-Astro Eric Bruntlett will back up short and second while Greg Dobbs and Helms do duty between first and third.

The outfield will have to replace Aaron Rowand's year, and between Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, Geoff Jenkins, and whatever combination of Werth and Taguchi get thrown out there on any given day.

It's hard to not like Burrell's .400 OBP, and for all the grief he got about being broken in 2003 he's put together four straight truly solid seasons with a steady slugging the past three years between .502 and .504. It's a bit disappointing that he doesn't get much attention, but alas I suppose that's the difference between playing in Philadelphia and New York, at least in New York his boos would've been exchanged with billboard ads by now.

Starting Rotation:
Cole Hamels and Brett Myers are really good. As a 23 year old Hamel posted a 3.39 ERA and a 1.124 WHIP with more than a 4:1 K:BB ratio, that's pretty damn impressive, and it came with his home games being in a hitter's park. Myers never should've been moved from the rotation, but in the end it seems like everything will work out for the best, even though it gives off the impression that the last three outs are different from the first three.

Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer form the soft tossers for the group - I feel like J.P. Howell should land here just to learn from these two how to live without blazing heat. Kendrick is hopefully taking notes from Moyer, he's going to need to have a large K:BB ratio than 2:1 if he expects to be above average in the bigs, something he showed in the minors, if just barely. Moyer's probably entering his last season - I wouldn't expect much from him, but it wouldn't shock me if he had a few 7 inning shutout performances like he did last season before riding off into announcing or whatever it is he wants to do.

Adam Eaton is slotted in as the fifth starter, his performance last year was, in a word, unspectacular.  J.D. Durbin the swingman who will no doubt get at least 10 starts this year, like he did last year.

Bullpen:
Lidge is a pretty nice addition to any pen, and the fact that he allowed the Phils to undo that mistake of putting Brett Myers in the pen is even better. For all the talk of his early season struggles (read April) he was actually better in the first half (2.34 ERA) than in the second half (4.45 ERA).

Tom Gordon has been around forever and figures to form with J.C. Romero and Ryan Madson as the late inning relievers. Romero's career WHIP is 1.5, his WHIP in Philly was 1.1, something tells me he's not nearly as good as that 1.1 suggests, that something being an absurdly low LD% and xBABIP / BABIP, without a doubt those numbers are going to return to their average range, and when they do he's not going to look like a four million dollar annually pitcher.

Some mix of Scott Mathieson, Chad Durbin, J.D. Durbin, Clay Condry, Mike Zagurski, and Francisco Rosario will fill out the bullpen, frankly any pen with a pair of Durbins is one worth watching, and keep an eye on Zagurski, he's a true blue LOOGY, in splits at least, not usage: 50 AB v. RHB 1.051 OPS against, 37 AB v. LHB .502 OPS against.

The Hook:
The Phillies look improved, although I'm not sure how much, I don't doubt that they'll finish in playoff contention, but the division title is going to require a ton of things going right for them, and you never know with Wild Card spots - see the Rockies.

NL Up Next: San Diego Padres on Wednesday

Colorado Rockies
2007 W-L: 90-73
2007 Pythag W-L: 91-72
2007 Payroll: ~54 mil
2008 Payroll: ~66 mil

Coming: Luis Vizcaino, Josh Towers, Kip Wells, Jose Capellan

Going: LaTroy Hawkins, Jeremy Affeldt, Kazuo Matsui, Denny Bautista, Jamey Carroll

Sliding In:

The post-season was a story of sweeps for the Colorado Rockies: sweeping the Phillies in the Division Series, the Diamondbacks in the Championship Series, and then losing to the Boston Red Sox in the World Series - falling in four games.

Offense:

Like every year since 1998 first baseman Todd Helton will play a key role in the Rockies offensive attack. Helton may not reach Cooperstown due to concerns about being a product of Coors' Field, and while there's no doubt he's a better hitter at home: .367/.465/.663 at Coors, .295/.394/.502 on the road Helton should still be considered a pretty good hitter. Helton doesn't seem like he's going to be hitting more than 20 homeruns this year, but his OBP hasn't been sub-.400 since 1999, and even then it was .395 and valuable enough to any lineup.

A ton was made about the Rockies' infield finishing with the highest fielding percentage ever last year and they'll attempt to top that this year without second baseman Kazuo Matsui whose new home in Houston opens the door for slick fielding Jayson Nix. A breakout season in Colorado Springs saw Nix hit .292/.342/.451 which don't match up with the rest of his minor league numbers: .256/.321/.399. As a 25 year old Nix seemingly had a lucky year in terms of BABIP / xBABIP last year and honestly I can't see him making it a full season with an above replacement level bat which is why Ian Stewart, Clint Barmes, and Marcus Giles could see time there.

Troy Tulowitzki had a rookie solid year and got rewarded with a huge deal, the former Dirt Bag hit .291/.359/.479 and came in second to Ryan Braun in National League Rookie of the Year voting. Tulowitizki is a mighty fine young player, and ranks considerably well with all shortstops in OPS - as I'll post later on. I'm not going to go as far as calling Tulowitzki the Rockies version of Derek Jeter, but check out Tulo's 22 year old season compared to other notable shortstops, he's not too shabby:

Tulo: 609 AB, 177 H, 33 2B, 5 3B, 24 HR, 57 BB, 130 SO, .291/.359/.479
Jeter: 582 AB, 183 H, 25 2B, 6 3B, 10 HR, 48 BB, 102 SO, .314/.370/.430
Ripken: 663 AB, 211 H, 47 2B, 2 3B, 27 HR, 58 BB, 97 SO, .318/.371/.517
Rodriguez: 686 AB, .213 H, 35 2B, 5 3B, 42 HR, 45 BB, 121 So, .310/.360/.560

Rounding out the infield is third baseman Garrett Atkins who hit .301/.367/.486 last year. Meanwhile Jeff Baker - who was almost traded for Dan Wheeler last trade deadline - will be a reserve infielder joining offensively inept to the core, Mr. 33 OPS+ Omar Quintanilla, and Ryan Spilborghs.

Yorvit Torrealba and Chris Iannetta will compete for reps behind the plate, I don't see Torrealba being benched considering most teams don't like to pay back up catchers 3 million. That being said I have no doubts that Iannetta could out-hit Torrealba, and it's too bad for his young career that Yorvit to the Mets fell through for whatever reason.

In the outfield the Rocks will run Matt Holliday, Willy Taveras, and Brad Hawpe out by the waterfall. Holliday is just about to enter his prime, which is scary considering he hit .340/.305/.607 last year, and he's been on the upswing since 2004 in terms of power. Taveras was part of that heist known as the Jason Jennings deal, and his season was pretty reminiscent of Juan Pierre's 2001, Pierre of course crash landed the next year. If Taveras is going to avoid a let down season he needs to walk more after only taking a free pass 90 times in his last 975 at-bats. Hawpe is another good slash stat maniac for the Rockies, and he hit .291/.387/.539 in 516 at-bats.

One interesting and expected thing about the outfielders' road splits, notably Hawpe and Holliday are the contrast:

2007 Hawpe Home / Away OPS: 1.017/.831
2007 Holliday Home / Away OPS 1.157/.860

Spilborghs and Baker figure to be reserves along with Cory Sullivan and Seth Smith - who is probably good for a dozen homeruns or so.

Starting Rotation:

Jeff Francis will lead the rotation; surprisingly he's all ready 27. The native Canadian is coming off of back-to-back solid years and doesn't seem to be too timid when it comes to pitching in Coors, although minus ERA his numbers are a bit more brash at home than on the road. He's locked down through 2011 at thrift rates, which suggests he might be the first pitcher to have a chance at five straight above average years while being a Coors' starter.

Aaron Cook would claim that crown, but his second season was pretty rough, namely allowing too many baserunners, but the something has clicked since 2005, and Cook is a solid enough rotation member, but in his division his rotation status is more than overmatched against foes like Dan Haren, Chris Young, Matt Cain, and Derek Lowe.

Newly turned 24 year old Ubaldo Jimenez and the best young lefty in the minors Franklin Morales form a hard throwing 3-4 punch with Josh Towers, Jason Hirsh, Mark Redman, and Kip Wells fighting for the fifth spot. I would prefer to think of the Rockies as a progressive team - minus the whole "Jesus Rocks" stories, look at their usage of video iPods for instance, and I assume they'd like to see Hirsh win the spot instead of  the two bums in Wells and Redman and the retread in Towers.

Bullpen:

Manuel Corpas will take the ninth, his name is a Chris Berman-ism waiting to happen: "The Rockies up 3-1 in the ninth Manny Cold and Limp Corpas taking the hill." That being said Corpas is another solid young player on this team - see Brian Sabean and Ned Colletti, young teams can compete.

Luis Vizcaino and LaTroy Hawkins essentially swapped teams and situations - Hawkins will be the set-up man for Mariano Rivera while Vizcaino figures to be a clog late in games. Brian Fuentes also figures to slot in the back of games despite no longer being the Rockies closer - look for him to be traded if the Rockies are out of contention in July and don't have a deal in place, assuming at least that a deal brings more value than Fuentes likely Elias rating of an A.

Also in the pen Taylor Buchholz, Ryan Speier, Juan Morillo, and Josh Newman make up an inexperienced middle relief staff and I would assume Casey Weathers - last year's first round pick from Vanderbilt - will fly through the system, the question becomes will he simply settle in as a set-up man or bump Corpas?

The Hook:

Nothing seems to suggest that the Rockies can't be a contender in the National League West next year, although the team didn't really do a ton to improve there wasn't much to fix to begin with. A blackhole at catcher and second base should be made up for by the outstanding bats placed in the surrounding six spots - even if those bats are dampened slightly away from Coors.

The pitching staff doesn't look too bad, although you'd like to see one more reliever emerge - like Buccholz - along with Hirsh or one of the other back end starters.

NL Up Next: Philadelphia on Friday

Arizona Diamondbacks
2007 W-L:  90-72
2007 Pythag W-L: 79-83
2007 Payroll: ~52 mil
2008 Payroll: ~58 mil

Coming: Dan Haren, Chad Qualls, Chris Burke Billy Buckner, Connor Robertson, Juan Gutierrez

Going: Alberto Callaspo, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, Carlos Quentin, Aaron Cunningham, Carlos Gonzalez, Jose Valverde

Sliding In:

The Diamondbacks were extremely lucky last year and probably shouldn't have won 90 games and I'd like to think that motivated general manager Josh Byrnes to go hog wild this off-season and add a few new pieces including Dan Haren to the fold.

After sweeping the Cubs the Backs were on the receiving end of the broom against their division rival and National League World Series representative, the Colorado Rockies who at the time were hotter than the desert in the summertime.

Offense:
Last year it was Conor Jackson, Eric Byrnes, Orlando Hudson, and a ton of free hacking youngsters including fellow outfielders Chris B. Young and Justin Upton.

Behind the plate Chris Snyder is the starter with Miguel Montero and Robbie Hammock competing for the backup spot, edge to Montero in age and likelihood to make a meaningful contribution to the team.

On the infield the Backs will roll out Jackson (.284/.368/.467), Hudson (.294/.376/.441) and some combination of Chris Burke, Stephen Drew, Chad Tracy, Mark Reynolds, and Auggie Ojeda which should be an above average infield offensively and fine defensively.

Drew will get the start at shortstop, despite his rookie struggles there's enough upside to stand by him for at least another year. Burke was acquired in the Valverde trade, and he's likely the first backup in center with the occasional start at second thrown in. Tracy and Reynolds will fight it out for the hot corner starting gig, but don't be shocked if Tracy is dealt - there were some whispers during the winter meetings of a three way deal with him being the one on the way out. Ojeda is a nice back-up and will probably stick around as the backup middle infielder.

As previously mention Eric Byrnes mans left, Chris B. Young center, and the young phenom Justin Upton right field. Jeff Salazar, Tracy, and Burke will act as reserves if needed, but assuming Young and Upton progress as they should the outfield should be slightly above average with the potential to be amongst the best by 2010.

Byrnes is a good bet to steal more than 40 bases and get on base enough to score over 100 runs, a lot was made of his contract, but 3/30 isn't too bad considering he's an above average hitter and the deal should expire right before Byrnes becomes completely useless.

Young finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting despite having a nearly non-existent batting average, if he could get a few more hits his on-base percentage would look a lot better - obviously - but the power he showed is a breathe of fresh air for the 23 year old. Any time a pro player can hit six more homers than his age you know he's got a chance to be special, factor in that he's a center fielder and in his first full pro season and is it beyond reasonable expectations to have him pegged for at least one 40 homerun year somewhere in his career?

Finally we reach Justin Upton who played in his first game and hit his first homerun before turning 20 last year. His initial debut wasn't as impressive as his older brother's, but, unlike Melvin, Justin will begin his 20 year old season in the pros and as a starter, and like so many of his teammates if Upton progresses this year the D-Backs should be scoring a ton of runs, the question is, can their pitching staff prevent the opposition from scoring more?

Starting Rotation:
Any team with Dan Haren and Brandon Webb has the makings of a very good rotation, and luckily for the Diamondbacks they have the backend to make it worth their two young studs' time. Micah Owings, Doug Davis, and Randy Johnson should provide Arizona with the chance at having five starters with ERA+ over 100. The Backs

Webb is a perennial Cy Young candidate - all he does is get groundballs and go six plus innings on a routine basis. It doesn't hurt matters that Webb struck out a career high 194 last year or that he'll be making all of 5.5 million this season, despite five seasons of well above average performances.  I expect his strikeout rate to return to his career norm around 170 otherwise there's nothing fluky or undesirable here; Webb is the textbook example of steady.

Joining Webb at the top of the rotation is the aforementioned Haren. Following three solid seasons in Oakland - although none quite like last year - he was moved to Arizona for a plethora of prospects in a sell high maneuver. I'm not sure what happened in the second half, but after a first half where he threw 129 innings, and only gave up 97 hits and a 2.3 ERA he ballooned to a 4.15 ERA for the second half and in 93 innings gave up 117 hits, okay apparently I do know what happened: an extremely lucky first half caught up with him.

Micah Owings will pitch in between playing first base; apparently he's decent at it, he was much better at home and in the second half, and his WHIP suggests his ERA will only drop. Doug Davis has walked more than his career average for three consecutive years; he also allowed 21 homeruns last year, not a good combination for any pitcher.  Anytime Randy Johnson is your fifth starter it's an intriguing situation, the Unit only made 10 starts last year, but was solid in doing so even at 43.

When injury or bad performance strikes new acquisition Billy Buckner would be the first in line to take the rubber, he was acquired from the Royals for Alberto Callaspo, and last year made five starts, although he allowed too many baserunners (50) in his small amount of work (34 innings), that's definitely got to change. Edgar Gonzalez would likely step in for a spot start or 12 like last year, although he faired better as a starter Gonzalez wasn't great in either role. Yusmeiro Petit will likely get a few starts as well - particularly if Gonzalez gets off to a good start in his relief role - despite his minor league success he's yet to translate it to the big league level.

Bullpen:
Teams don't usually trade closers who save 47 games, are completely dominant, and have two years before free agency, but then again Byrnes has proven he doesn't take the conventional route to building a team. 26 year old Tony Pena will open the year as the Arizona closer after an impressive 2007 where he threw 85 innings, allowed 63 hits, walked 31, and struck 63 batters out. The first time he fails someone will say he doesn't "have it" to close out games, but don't be surprised if Pena excels and makes fans forget about Jose Valverde.

The reliever acquired in return for Valverde, Chad Qualls, will likely set up the 8th for Pena, and since 2004 Qualls has been one of the more dependable and solid relievers in the National League. Last year with the Houston Astros was arguably his best, particularly the second half where he posted a 1.86 ERA.

Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz, and Doug Slaten are the only locks for the bullpen with a number of combatants for the other two spots. Lyon has found a home in Arizona, remember when he started off as a starter with the Blue Jays? Cruz is a free agent after this year but has seemingly found a niche for himself after bouncing around as a starter and reliever between the Cubs, Braves, and Athletics, in such crazy markets he could find himself making pretty good coin next year. Slaten is a tall lefty who is a bit more effective against his abnormal kind, but doesn't fit the traditional LOOGY mold.

Amongst those in contention for a spot: Buckner, Gonzalez, Emiliano Fruto, Juan Gutierrez, Brandon Medders, Dustin Nippert, Jailen Peguero, Bill Murphy, and don't be surprised if Max Scherzer doesn't find himself into the bullpen before the season closes.

The Hook

I wouldn't expect the Backs to repeat as division champs, but then again this is the same team that did disprove us saberheads as morons last year, so with some progress with the bats and repeat performances by their bullpen it's very possible we'll see them in the playoffs. If they can get there not many can match that 1-2-3 punch or the potential in the lineup.   

2006 W-L: 83-78 (1st place)

2006 Pythag: 82-79

2007 Depth Chart

Coming:
Adam Kennedy, Kip Wells, Russ Springer, Ryan Franklin, Randy Keisler

Going:
Jeff Suppan, Ron Belliard, Jason Marquis, Jeff Weaver

The Cardinals In a Nutshell:

It's a sports truism that you don't count out last year's champs. Then again, it's rare that last year's champs were so decidedly mediocre. The Cardinals had plenty of breaks go against them; among others, Walt Jocketty didn't trade for Mark Mulder so that he'd rack up a 7.14 ERA.

At the same time, plenty worked in the Cardinals favor, as well: Adam Wainwright emerged as an effective closer; Scott Spiezio remembered how to hit, and Scott Rolen was healthy enough for nearly 600 plate appearances. we could play the good-luck/bad-luck game all day, but my point is that the Cardinals aren't going to gain five (or any) wins just from bouncing back to normalcy. A substantial improvement will require some key players stepping up, and it's hard to see where exactly that will happen.

Offense:

Any team with Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen at the corners has a head start on nearly everybody else. There's no question that, as long as they're both in the lineup, the Cardinals can score some runs. The problem is the other seven spots in the lineup.

The most predictable parts of the offense are the worst: we can pretty much count on Yadi Molina and David Eckstein going out there nearly every day and just about match Jason Marquis's slugging percentage. That isn't to say they aren't valuable players, but it puts the mashing part of the lineup in perspective.

It's probably safe to throw Adam Kennedy into that second group as well, without quite the same negativity. Kennedy isn't likely to match his 2002 career year, but he is a good bet for regular, neighborhood-of-league-average production from second base. Best of all, Walt Jocketty got him for cheap. Somebody has to bat seventh, even on a winner. (On the other hand, Kennedy will probably get his share of at-bats in the #2 hole.)

The rest of the lineup is completely up in the air, either because of health issues (Jim Edmonds, Juan Encarnacion) or inconsistency (everybody else). As Nate Silver pointed out the other day, the opening day outfield could be Scott Spiezio, Preston Wilson, and Chris Duncan. That's three guys playing defensive positions they oughtn't be starting at (a low blow, given two of those positions are right and left field), without nearly the offense you'd expect to balance defensive shortcomings. Duncan and Wilson, or Duncan and Encarnacion, would make a nice platoon, but it looks like Tony LaRussa won't have that luxury, at least for a while.

All those health issues also neutralize one of the Cardinals's advantages: their deep bench. It's all well and good to have Scott Spiezio pinch-hitting effectively, but that doesn't mean you want him to be your right fielder. Or third baseman. Or anything else for nine innings on a regular basis. The same thing goes for Aaron Miles and, to a lesser extent, So Taguchi: they are like quality middle relievers who you never, ever want to see on the mound in the ninth inning.

If there's a silver lining to all of this, it's that all this uncertainty isn't replacing all that much production. Aside from Jim Edmonds's solid 400 plate appearances, the outfield wasn't all that good last year. There'll be more of the same this year; Jocketty probably ought to have done better, but St. Louis won't lose several wins simply because he didn't. Instead, they'll probably score about the same number of runs and put the onus for improvement on the pitching staff. That might not be a good idea.

Starting Rotation

I can't imagine very many World Series winners turn over 60% of their starting rotation the offseason following their championship. It's even rarer that doing so is probably a good idea.

Seven pitchers made up 160 of the Cardinals' starts last year, and only three of those are returning: Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Anthony Reyes. Of those lost, only Jeff Suppan was well above replacement level: the other three are the suddenly very rich Jason Marquis, the still inexplicably rich Jeff Weaver, and the inexplicably employed Sidney Ponson.

In other words, it isn't a bad idea to get rid of all the chaff; what's questionable is how successful the replacements will be. The best hope for improvement comes from one of the returning starters, Anthony Reyes. At this site, Mike Pindelski has argued that Reyes is a sleeper for the Cy Young Award; that may be optimistic, but ZiPS also likes him, forecasting an ERA under 4.00. Adam Wainwright, likely to convert from relief, is easy to be positive about too: ZiPS gives him an ERA under 4.00 as well.

I'm not quite so optimistic about Wainwright; I figure he'll need some time to adjust back to starting, and there's no telling how the league will do against him when they get to see his repertoire multiple times per game. I'd be much more comfortable projecting success for him in 2008 than in '07; as it is, though, the Cards can probably get at least league average pitching out Reyes and Wainwright. In that regard, consider Suppan replaced.

What's dangerous is what Walt Jocketty has done (or not done) with the back of the rotation. Kip Wells was a nice pickup for $4 million; then again, he's the same sort of acquisition as John Thomson or Tomo Ohka: a gamble that you use to add rotation depth. That is, you don't slot him straight into your rotation, at least not with the same type of depth that, say, the Blue Jays have. Instead, the Cardinals are counting on him as a regular, despite the fact that he hasn't had any kind of success since 2003.

But compared to putting Braden Looper in the rotation, granting Wells a starting job is positively brilliant. I suppose you have to figure that Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa know what they're doing here, but Looper is attempting a role change that rarely works, and that seems particularly poorly-suited for his skillset. Frankly, I have no idea how this will work out, but of the non-Wainwright relievers in the St. Louis stable, Looper is about the fifth one I would've picked to switch to the rotation.

Of course, it may be the LaRussa never intended Looper to start a single game: it's some canny gambit so that the Cardinals won't feel forced into trading for a starter such as Carl Pavano. That's reasonable enough, but the clock is ticking, and there are only so many replacement-level pitchers out there. Mark Mulder may pitch in the second half, but that could still allow Looper twenty starts of pain.

Even if everything breaks right for Wainwright and Reyes, the Cardinals still have plenty of holes in the rotation. Perhaps Jocketty shouldn't have spent money on better options, but he has found himself stuck with a back of the rotation with plenty of variance but not a lot of upside. That may put him in the position of acquiring the 2007 version of Jeff Weaver (Jeff Weaver, perhaps) in midseason, but without a postseason in which that pitcher will excel.

The Bullpen

If Jason Isringhausen is healthy, the bullpen will be barely distinguishable from last year's group. If he's not, the whole house of cards falls down, and LaRussa will be scrambling for either a good late-inning reliever or yet another starter (if Wainwright returns to closing).

While it's easy to be snippy about LaRussa's bullpen management habits, he did a nice job last year working with spare parts and a handful of youngsters who may have been stuck in triple-A were they in a different organization. None of his prized lefties were very effective, but true to form, they didn't pitch very much, either.

The danger this year, especially if Isringhausen isn't rock solid from day one, is that all of those middle relievers who stepped up last year--Josh Kinney, Josh Hancock, Brad Thompson--will be under a lot more pressure. Moving Wainwright and Looper into the rotation is hardly like depriving a bullpen of Francisco Rodriguez and Scot Shields, but it's a stretch to say that the acquisition of Russ Springer will provide a thorough replacement.

So, much like the rotation, Walt Jocketty has put together a house of cards: if everyone stays perfectly still, it just might work. But it won't take much to expose all the cracks in the armor (it's cliche day at Beyond the Boxscore!), especially when the insurance is Ryan Franklin. I imagine Jocketty expects to tweak this staff throughout the season, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him start doing so very soon. In the meantime, though, it's hard to get excited about anybody except for Carpenter and Reyes.

All Together Now

I've gone on record predicting that the Cardinals defend their NL Central title, but I'm starting to have my doubts. I've always been impressed with Jocketty, and it's tough to discount the chances of a team that is more likely than any to include both the MVP and the Cy Young Award winner. And despite the Brewers young core, it isn't like there's a powerhouse in the division ready to knock them off.

So, I suppose I'll stick with my prediction: Cardinals first, Brewers second. But that depends entirely on the general manager's savvy: the Cardinals, as presently constituted, could easily find themselves below .500. Perhaps, say, a resurgent Carl Pavano would be enough to put St. Louis back in the postseason. Thirty Braden Looper starts sure as hell won't.

2006 W-L: 82-80 (2nd place)

2006 Pythag: 83-79

2007 Depth Chart

Coming:
Carlos Lee, Mark Loretta, Jason Jennings, Woody Williams, Rick White, Scott Sauerbeck, Brian Moehler, Richard Hidalgo, Miguel Ascencio

Going:
Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, Taylor Buchholz, Jason Hirsh, Willy Taveras, Aubrey Huff, Russ Springer, Orlando Palmeiro

The Astros In a Nutshell:

In 2006, Andy Pettitte wasn't as good as he was in 2005. Roger Clemens followed up his '05 season with something nearly as dominant, but not for as long. The difference in those two performances goes a long way toward explaining why the Astros won seven fewer games in 2006.

Now Houston is primed to take another hit: on the assumption that Clemens isn't coming back, they're losing two of their three aces, and replacing them with distinctly inferior options in Jason Jennings and Woody Williams. (Oldster? Check! Consistent quality? Uh...) Importing Carlos Lee in a very Caballo-friendly park will make up some of the loss, but not nearly enough to put the Astros back in the postseason.

Offense:

It makes some sense that Tim Purpura would want to make his biggest free-agent splash a power hitter: the Astros were in the bottom half of NL offenses for the last two years. While Carlos Lee's contract might be an albatross in five years, he will give the Astros a boost for the next few years, especially once he adjusts to take full advantage of the short porch in left.

On the other hand, Purpura did nothing to address the real problem areas on this team. One of those issues is all but out of his control: until Craig Biggio gets to 3,000 hits, anyone in Houston who denies him the opportunity would probably be lynched. This despite the fact that Biggio is, at this point in his career, essentially a bench-level player.

While Biggio has no real performance-related reason for being in the lineup nearly every day, at least Brad Ausmus and Adam Everett can point to their gloves. Ausmus was particularly useless at the plate, slugging under 300. (I'm not kidding. You can look it up, if you're stout of heart.) Everett cracked a 350 SLG, but didn't get on base 30% of the time.

In short, it's a great time to pitch in the NL Central.

Aside from upgrading to Carlos Lee in left field, the biggest boost the Astros can expect is nearly doubling Chris Burke's playing time. He may not be a Willy Taveras-caliber defender (honestly, I have no idea), but I'd rather have Burke's 276/347/418 in my lineup than Taveras's complete and utter lack of power.

While it's easy to point out Astros who slumped last year--Morgan Ensberg and Jason Lane come to mind--those don't provide much in the way of opportunities for improvement. Despite Lane's uninspiring performance, Astros right fielders combined for a very respectable 264/371/495 line, thanks in large part to Lance Berkman's and Aubrey Huff's time there.

Ensberg did struggle pushing the ball past defenders, but he was otherwise very effective, getting on base nearly 40% of the time. He may put up prettier traditional stats this year, but unless he has a career year, the difference won't be worth more than a handful of runs.

Further, part-time efforts from Huff, Mike Lamb, and Luke Scott ensured that the Astros offense wasn't quite as putrid as it could easily have been; while there may be some improvement from a few players, I wouldn't count on Lamb or Scott 850+ or 1050+, respectively.

No matter how good Berkman and Lee are, the Astros have a fundamental problem: you won't have a good offense if three eighths of your starters don't have offensive skills that justify their presence in a major league lineup. If everything breaks right, Houston could sport a league-average offense for the first time in quite a while; if a few things break wrong, the offense at Minute Maid will be positively Pittsburghian.

Starting Rotation

Much as it did last year, the Astros rotation looks primed for the midseason reappearance of Roger Clemens. That is to say, it could well be one starter short of competent, and one great starter short of good enough.

There's no doubting the greatness of an ace such as Roy Oswalt, and it seems reasonable to expect a solid year from Jason Jennings. Then again, it's easy to get overexcited about the young pitcher: before last year's solid showing (ERA: 3.81, ERA+: 127), he posted three straight years of ERAs above 5 with concurrent ERA+ numbers under 95. That isn't awful--the ERAs are largely owing to Coors--but that's more Brandon Backe than Pettitte/Clemens. It isn't Jennings's fault that that's the pitcher he is, but it's a stretch to make him a #2 starter on a contender.

It's even more far-fetched to have any expectations related to Woody Williams. It's true that the Astros didn't drastically overpay for him, though a second year is kind of a stretch for the 40-year-old. Williams's numbers benefited from his time in Petco; his road ERA last year was more than a full run higher than his home mark. Again, it isn't Williams fault that he isn't any better, but the Astros ought to have more than two starters who are better than that.

The frontrunners for back-rotation spots at this point appear to be Fernando Nieve and Wandy Rodriguez, if only because they've spent more time at the major league level than their competition has. Wandy seems like a sort of prospect, but he's now 28, and has made 20+ starts in each of the last two years, never topping an ERA+ of 81. Further, his left-handedness isn't doing him any favors in Minute Maid, though he's been equally bad on the road.

Fernando Nieve is actually something of a prospect, not yet 25 years old and with 11 solid MLB starts under his belt. While he barely topped 100 innings in 2006, his '05 split between double- and triple-A offers grounds for hope: he struck out more than a batter per inning over 167 innings. It seems unlikely he'll be good for more than 150 innings, but of the Astros likely to see time in the rotation, he's the one with legitimate upside.

Beyond that possible starting five, the Astros do have options, though few of them are appetizing. Brandon Backe should make his way back from Tommy John surgery midway through the season, though as usual, it's not smart to count on him to be back in top form immediately upon return. Middling prospects Matt Albers and Phil Barzilla could make starts here and there, along with Chris Sampson; none of those guys, however, are going to be difference makers; it's likely that Williams's claim to the #3 spot in the rotation won't be in danger.

The Bullpen

Little has changed since this time last year. The biggest difference is the degree of uncertainty surrounding Brad Lidge. Last spring, it seemed foolish to doubt Lidge simply because of a postseason misstep; now, it's equally foolish to count on a return to dominance from someone whose home run rate doubled and whose walk rate increased by 50%.

That said, it's hard not to stay optimstic about this guy: even in a down year, he struck out over one hundred batters (for the third year running, incidentally) in 75 innings. He may not get Cy Young Award votes again, but its easy to see him becoming a solid closer again.

As the Astros always seem to have, they have options in case he doesn't. Chad Qualls is one of the better non-closer relievers in the game, despite an unimpressive strikeout rate. Dan Wheeler has been even better the last few years, and as he got the bulk of the non-Lidge save opportunities last year, he seems like the most logical heir apparent if Lidge is traded or becomes completely ineffective.

Beyond Trever Miller, the Astros quality lefty specialist, the rest of the bullpen spots would appear to be completely up for grabs. Dave Borkowski has the inside track for a spot, having served in middle relief for all of last season.

Non-roster invitee Scott Sauerbeck could reclaim lost glory and serve as a second lefty, while a slew of failed starters (or starters who will be failed after they don't make this year's rotation). Ultimately, those spots don't matter much: most of the contenders have options, so the losers will go back to Round Rock and fight for the opportunity to come back when a job opens up. For the Astros bottom line, Lidge's peripherals are more important than the production from those last two or three spots put together.

All Together Now

I'm starting to feel like a grumpy old stathead: this is my third consecutive preview (first: Reds, second: White Sox) in which I project bad things. After losing Pettitte and Clemens, it might have made sense for Purpura to rebuild; Jason Hirsh may well have a brighter future than Jason Jennings does, and there's no way Drayton McLane is going to be happy about the checks he writes Carlos Lee in three or four years.

Then again, it's tough to rebuild when you're committed to players like Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt. It'd be one thing to trade the likes of Lidge and Ensberg, but on the offensive side, the Astros don't have as much of a core to build around as they do on the mound. They entered the offseason stuck in an awkward part of the success cycle, and ended it worse off, unlikely to find the "success" in "success cycle" anytime soon.

2006 W-L: 90-72 (3rd place)

2006 Pythag: 88-74

2007 Depth Chart

Coming:
Darin Erstad, Gavin Floyd, Nick Masset, John Danks, Toby Hall, David Aardsma, Andy Sisco, Gio Gonzalez, Luis Terrero

Going:
Brandon McCarthy, Freddy Garcia, Neal Cotts, David Riske, Dustin Hermanson

The White Sox In a Nutshell:

In 2005, the stars aligned for the White Sox pitching staff, giving the team one of the best rotations from 1 through 5 in the league to support an extremely powerful offense. That powerful offense hasn't gone anywhere, but the starting rotation went back to wherever it came from.

This offseason, Kenny Williams did most of his work on that very rotation, focusing more on the long-term future than the upcoming season. John Danks, Nick Masset, Gio Gonzalez, and Gavin Floyd may make up a stellar rotation in 2009, but in '07, the loss of Freddy Garcia and the lack of other experienced options will keep the Sox well out of the playoff hunt.

Offense:

Despite Ozzie Guillen's eccentric protestations to the contrary, the White Sox offense is built around the home run. Last year, four guys hit 30 or more longballs, with three more starters at 16 or higher. The team total was best in the league, and it wasn't even close.

What's most striking about this unit, though, is the difference between the power positions and the...shall we say, Podsednik positions. While the Sox were solid at C, 1B, 2B, RF, and DH, and respectable at 3B, the other three spots were just horrendous. Worst of all, Kenny Williams did nothing to solve any of those problems.

The biggest offensive sinkhole was Brian Anderson, a solid defensive center fielder, but now 24 years old and unable to get on base more than 29% of the time. I don't know what the defensive difference would be between Anderson and Rob Mackowiak, but it would have to be huge to justify playing Anderson's 225/290/359 bat over Mackowiak's 290/365/404.

ZiPS predicts that Anderson will recover to 247/312/392, but that's still quite underwhelming. Not much worse than what ZiPS thinks of Scott Podsednik's chances in 2007: 261/331/354, to be exact. Perhaps Williams is willing to punt a couple of positions on offense in exchange for some defensive gain (real or perceived, I'm not sure), but it wouldn't take much to improve on those two weak spots.

Darin Erstad is likely to make the team, but he probably won't constitute an improvement over Anderson or Podsednik, except perhaps a bit on defense. The only chance Chicago has to give their offense a boost is if Josh Fields is gifted the starting job in left field, and he hits almost immediately upon arrival. I'd take my chances with Fields over Podsednik, but it doesn't look likely that Williams and Guillen share my thinking.

Also troublesome is Juan Uribe's production at shortstop. His power almost pushes his OPS up to 700, but his on-base percentage was an absolutely dreadful .257 last year. For those of you keeping score at home, that's only two points better than Sandy Alomar Jr. managed as the Sox backup catcher. As in center field, Chicago may have a better option on their bench, in Alex Cintron.

There's not a lot of hope for improvement at those three weak spots, and there's not much reason for optimism in the rest of the lineup, either. Jim Thome remains something of an injury risk; he'll hit when healthy, but if he only gets 500 PAs instead of 600, that'll hurt. Jermaine Dye is likely to have another solid season, but it's a stretch to predict he'll match his MVP-quality 2006 numbers.

This will still be a good offense; it might well be among the top three in the league again. But it won't improve much (if at all), and as we'll see, the rest of the squad isn't going to pick up the slack.

Starting Rotation

The focus of the Sox offseason was the rotation. Brandon McCarthy (one of only two sixth starters in baseball last year who only got a handful of starts) was shipped off to Texas, while Freddy Garcia (and his salary) went to Philadelphia.

In exchange, Chicago got a nice pile o' prospects: Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez from the Phillies and John Danks and Nick Masset from the Rangers. At the moment, Danks is the frontrunner for this year's #5 slot; it wouldn't surprise me to see Danks, Masset, and Floyd all find themselves making starts at some point during the season. It also wouldn't surprise me if none of them were any good until at least 2008.

More important, though, are the four guys who are coming back. As I mentioned above, the Sox rotation came back to earth from their excellent '05. That isn't to say they're primed for a resurgence. The front five--Garcia, Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Javier Vazquez, and Jose Contreras--all had an ERA+ of at least 93 (above average for a starter) and make at least 30 starts. Combined, those five guys made 159 starts.

After a similar performance in '05, health-wise, it looks like the White Sox medical staff may really be doing something right. However, let's not get carried away: they've been both good and lucky. One pop-up chasing collision and you have two replacement-level starters in the rotation, not one; add an injury to the aging Contreras, and it's easy to see this team matching PECOTA's much-ballyhooed 72-win projection.

Of the likely rotation insurance after the front four, only Masset and Charlie Haeger have ZiPS ERA projections under six. If it weren't for the Sox high payroll and Williams's bluster, it'd be easy to view this is a rebuilding year; it would take much more good fortune than it did in '05 to turn this squad into a contender.

I haven't written much about the prospects for the front four simply because, besides the ever-present health risks, there's not much variance in their performance. I expect that every one of them will be somewhere between a 90 and 110 ERA+; Buehrle seems due for a slight bounce back, while Contreras's age suggests to me that he may slip a bit. All in all, I don't see that four-man unit changing very much.

All that said, I don't necessarily think that Williams's offseason moves were bad, just that they weren't geared toward winning in 2007. I don't expect him to admit it, but he must realize this, as well. If even a couple of his young acquisitions turn into a good pitchers, he comes out ahead, but that advantage will show up in the win-loss records of future White Sox teams at the expense of this year's.

The Bullpen

The bullpen has an even bigger range of possible outcomes than the back end of the rotation does. I wrote about the White Sox relievers at some length in this Hardball Times article, so I'll try not to repeat myself too mcuh.

If everybody's healthy (a big "if," as always), Bobby Jenks, Matt Thornton, and Mike MacDougal ought to be solid. Many teams would like a closer and set-up corps like that. However, it's anybody's guess what the Sox get beyond that trio. Again, it looks more like the relief corps of a rebuilding team than that of a contender.

If the White Sox do find themselves in the middle of a race, all those starting prospects may well find themselves in relief duty. Danks, Masset, and perhaps Gonzalez all have the stuff to make it as short relievers, even if that isn't the best use of their talent. For a half-season chasing 90 wins, though, it'd be fun to see what Danks could do in the 7th inning.

All Together Now

As you can probably tell by now, I'm not optimistic about the White Sox chances in 2007. I'm not as pessimistic as PECOTA's 72-90 forecast, but it's easy to see this team on the wrong side of .500 at the end of the year. As it so often does, it'll depend on the health of the starting rotation; while many of Chicago's division rivals have quality starting rotations 7 or 8 men deep, the White Sox are really only reliable down to #4.

Worst of all, like the Reds, who I previewed yesterday, the White Sox don't have a lot of upside on an aging team. While Buerhle or Vazquez could turn in a Cy Young-caliber performance, it's tough to see much improvement coming out of any other part of the club. Improving on last year's 90-win showing (which will probably be necessary to advance out of the AL Central), would require a confluence of fortune even exceeding that favored the World Champions two seasons ago.

2006 W-L: 80-82 (3rd place)

2006 Pythag: 76-86

2007 Depth Chart

Coming:
Jeff Conine, Kirk Saarloos, Bobby Livingston, Bubba Crosby, Josh Hamilton, Chad Moeller, Jeff Keppinger

Going:
Rich Aurilia, Jason LaRue, Royce Clayton, Brandon Claussen, Chris Hammond, Scott Schoenweis

The Reds In a Nutshell:

The danger of writing season previews for each team--for me, anyway--is over-optimism. Give me a club, I can probably tell you why it'll do better in 2007 than it did in 2006. If you look back through the previews I've written so far, you'll see a lot more optimism than pessimism. Maybe it's just the nature of the beast.

I gotta say, though, it's tough to be positive about the Reds. Sure, in Homer Bailey and maybe Chris Denorfia, the Reds have a couple of kids who could make a difference, but probably not enough this year to matter. In the big picture, though, the Reds are built around a couple of starters coming off of career years, an incredibly shaky bullpen, and an offense that...well, better be improved on defense.

Offense:

There are three positions at which the Reds ought to be above average. First, left field, where Adam Dunn will try to stay on the right side of the Reds anti-strikeout brigade. If Dunn is allowed to stick to his game, he'll rack up plenty of K's on the way to another 40 home run season.

The other two spots are third base and catcher, where Edwin Encarnacion and Dave Ross established themselves last season. Encarnacion may still be a year or two away from the stardom many predict for him, but 276/359/473 is solid. In 250 at-bats, Ross was even better, at 255/353/579. I wouldn't expect a repeat performance, but even if he can keep the slugging percentage within 100 points, he'll be a valuable bat behind the plate.

At the other five positions, it's anybody's guess. Well, that's not exactly true: Alex Gonzalez is going to be below average, even for a shortstop. ZiPS forecasts a 239/293/390 season for him; he'll have to make a lot more plays than Felipe Lopez would've to to justify that line.

Filling out the infield, first base and second base are at drastically different points along the spectrum of age. Brandon Phillips will play second base again. There's no doubt he was one of the savviest waiver-wire pickups of 2006, but it's easy to get overexcited about his offensive potential. A hot start last year improved his reputation, but his OPS was a mere 9 points above average for his position. ZiPS predicts a mild decline, to 266/320/405.

First base figures to be a Scott Hatteberg/Jeff Conine platoon, which isn't a half-bad way to put handle first base on the cheap. Hatteberg has never been much for power, but can still walk his way to first with the best of them. However, both guys are old, and sooner rather than later, their performances are going to be in line with the cheapness of their contracts. ZiPS projects both to slug under 400 at a position where league average is nearly 500.

Regardless of who mans which position, Ryan Freel and Ken Griffey aren't a good bet to give you above-average production from their two spots. Freel isn't too far off from the median center fielder, especially with his nifty career OBP of .367. Many teams would be happy to upgrade to that kind of production (combined with Freel's defense) in center.

Griffey, as always, is the big question mark. If '05 Junior shows up and hits ot the tune of 301/369/576, the Reds can compensate for some of the offense lost from trading Lopez and Austin Kearns. While he still hit for decent power, his '06 level of 252/316/486 is well below average. I suspect that if Griffey is healthy, he'll hit closer to the '05 numbers than the '06s, but the biggest danger isn't even that he hits like he did last year: it's that he misses a substantial amount of time. The Reds aren't well prepared to lose him: unless Denorfia is ready, those at-bats would go to Conine, Bubba Crosby, or perhaps Josh Hamilton. Hello, fifth place.

Starting Rotation

Last year, it was Arroyo and Harang and pray for rain. This year, its the same thing, only there's the added concern that Arroyo and Harang keep up their respective career years. Arroyo topped his career ERA by nearly a full run, while Harang beat his by a half run.

If I had to guess, I'd say Harang maintains his level and gives the Reds 220+ innings in the 3.80 range. Arroyo, on the other hand, won't be as successful his second time around the National League. He'll still be a quality mid-rotation starter, but he won't get Cy Young votes. No matter how much Arroyo regresses, the real problem isn't the top two, it's the bottom three.

The Reds have plenty of options, none of them good. Elizardo Ramirez may be the best pitcher among them (until Homer Bailey is ready, anyway), but health issues will keep him from starting the season in the big league rotation. That leaves Cinci with Eric Milton, Kyle Lohse, Kirk Saarloos, Matt Belisle, and Bobby Livingston to fill things out. If you're excited about that, I'm in awe of your incredible single-minded fandom.

For a snapshot of the possibilities, ZiPS forecasts most of those guys right around a 5.00 ERA. Livingston looks the best by far, under 4.30, and Saarloos might have a little more upside once his numbers are adjusted for the weaker competition in the NL Central. Still, even with a bit of optimism and the expectation that Ramirez and Bailey will chip in by year's end, it's tough to see this group outperforming last year's group by much.

The bright side of that story is that it would be hard to be substantially worse than the '06 staff; if things break right, this could be an area of improvement. Even if everything goes wrong, the Reds will still feature plenty of replacement-level starters, which should give them something like the production they got last year.

The Bullpen

The Reds bullpen wasn't nearly as bad last year as it could've been: Todd Coffey emerged as a late inning option, while veterans Dave Weathers and Kent Mercker did nice impressions of themselves in their early 30s.

Most importantly, in his first year on the job, Wayne Krivsky established himself as [understatement alert] willing to do what was necessary to shore up this weak spot. During the season, he brought in Scott Schoeneweis, Rheal Cormier, Esteban Yan, Rick White, Eddie Guardado, Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, and Ryan Franklin. Some of those acquisitions worked out, some didn't; the actual result of each one of those pickups doesn't matter that much.

To view those deals optimistically, Krivsky seems to recognize that putting together a solid bullpen is a numbers game. If you bring in enough vets who have had success in the last half-decade, one of them will probably be good enough to pitch the 8th inning. However, that method--certainly if it includes the likes of Yan and White--leaves with you quite a few ugly innings while you figure out who that guy is.

This year's bullpen may be a bit better established, but it's arguable whether the results will improve. Weathers and Coffey return in their late inning roles, and while Coffey's strikeout and walk rates suggest some regression, Weather's peripherals sound a klaxon. You don't want your closer (or, really, anybody who will pitch important innings) to be walking a guy nearly every other inning, or coughing up a dinger every six frames, even in the Great American Ballpark.

If Gary Majewski is fully recovered, he'll be able to save some of the innings that Weathers endangers, and it seems reasonable to expect either Rheal Cormier or Mike Stanton to be as LOOGY-rific as ever. But unless you figure Bray is poised for a breakthrough, there are a whole lot of 7th-inning guys here, some of whom will have to pitch in awfully high-leverage situations.

Unlike the rotation, the bullpen is set up for a fall. While the starting five would be hard pressed to get much worse, a few relievers (notably Weathers, as I've already mentioned) got lucky, and the Reds didn't sacrifice as many late-inning leads as they might've. It's easy to envision a scenario is which things go wrong enough for Krivsky to spend another summer dealing good players for mediocre setup men.

All Together Now

If you're going to take on a lot of risk, you want to make sure you have the possibility for an appropriate reward. By building an old team with too many stopgaps at important positions, the Reds have left open the possibility of a disastrous season without the upside of a very successful one.

Sure, if Griffey stays healthy, Arroyo and Harang repeat, and Homer Bailey provides a Jered Weaver-like second half, the Reds could easily crack .500 and maybe even find themselves briefly in the wild card race. But it's tough to see even that degree of luck finding its way to Cincinnati.

The Reds may be a better team than their division rival Pirates, but that doesn't mean they're a better-run franchise, at least for the next year or so. It's tough to imagine a nastier thing to say, but I'm afraid it's a fair judgment. One can only hope disaster strikes early enough that Krivsky doesn't last much longer.