Let's wrap up the NL today, shall we?

San Francisco Giants
2007 W-L: 71-91
2007 Pythag: 77-85
2007 Payroll: ~90 mil
2008 Payroll:~75 mil
Coming: Aaron Rowand
Going: Barry Bonds, Scott Munter, Pedro Feliz, Ryan Klesko, Mike Matheny

Lineup:
I feel like I've beat them worse than a dead horse -  which also symbolizes exactly how far they'll go in the race for the playoffs. I'll avoid the five letter name, but outside of Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn the lineup lacks talent. Dan Ortmeier or Kevin Frandsen might shock some people, but only because they're not collecting AARP benefits yet somehow in the Giants' lineup.

Rotation:
You know how the therapist tells you to say something nice about the other person? Well in this case the only nice things I can dream up are two pieces of the rotation. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain don't deserve what's going to happen to their run support this year much in the same way Barry Zito doesn't deserve his 14.5 million dollar paycheck this year. Noah Lowry is overrated, Jonathan Sanchez, Kevin Correia, and Pat Misch will compete for back-end spots, and with Lowry having some injury issues two of the three might make it.

Bullpen:
Brian Wilson will close; Vinnie Chulk, Randy Messanger, Steve Atchinson, Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey, Steve Kline, Jack Taschner, and Erick Threets will compete for pen spots. Two interesting NRIs: Bartolome Fortunato - the other guy dealt for Scott Kazmir - and Kelichi Yabu.

Houston Astros
2007 W-L: 73-89
2007 Pythag: 72-90
2007 Payroll: ~88 mil
2008 Payroll:
Coming: Jose Valverde, every middle reliever alive, Miguel Tejada, Geoff Blum, Darin Erstad, Nick Gorneault, Kaz Matsui
Going: Adam Everett, Brad Lidge, Mike Lamb, Craig Biggio, Chris Burk, Jason Jennings, Trever Miller

Lineup:
Say what you will about the apparent nativity involved with the Miguel Tejeda trade, but he's at least an offensive upgrade over Adam Everett. Unfortunately the infield defense is going to be a disaster. Ty Wigginton at third, Tejada at short, Kaz Matsui at second, and Lance Berkman at first will leave Astro pitchers dropping four word bombs all the time. Brad Ausmus will finally be a back-up it appears, and J.R. Towles gets his shot behind the plate. The outfield will feature Carlos Lee, Michael Bourn, and Hunter Pence; that trio should be nothing less than solid, in fact I'd say it might be the strength of the team.

Rotation:
I can't tell you anything about Roy Oswalt that you don't all ready know, but after him it gets murky; Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe, Woody Williams, and Chris Sampson don't inspire confidence.

Bullpen:
Valverede is a good closer, but he's seemingly moving to a bad team, Doug Brocail, Geoff Geary, Oscar Villarreal, Dave Borkowski, Carlos Hines, Mike DeJean and tons others are in contention.

Cincinnati Reds
2007 W-L: 72-90
2007 Pythag: 75-87
2007 Payroll: ~68 mil
Coming: Francisco Cordero, Jeremy Affeldt, Josh Fogg, Corey Patterson Paul Bako, Jerry Hairston Jr.
Going: Josh Hamilton, Eric Milton, Eddie Guardado

Lineup:
Adam Dunn is on the way out, Ken Griffey Jr. still can't stay healthy, and Dusty Baker is in charge, things aren't looking up for the Redlegs. I really can't imagine Baker not giving Joey Votto the first base job, and Jay Bruce the center field spot by the All-Star break, but it is Dusty Baker.

Rotation:
Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, and Aaron Harang make for a pretty damn good rotation - assuming the former two live up to their billings - but it seems Jeremy Affeldt and Josh Fogg will be in the rotation to begin the year, I can summarize my thoughts with a line from Ken Rosenthal when they were signed. "They aren't Koufax and Drysdale but they are major league pitchers." Yeah, this situation almost never works out well.

Bullpen:
Cordero shouldn't miss a beat, but I'm a bit concerned with Mike Stanton. I must've missed it when he got a two year deal, because frankly that scares me.

Pittsburgh Pirates
2007 W-L: 68-94
2007 Pythag: 70-92
2007 Payroll: ~39 mil
Coming: Jorge Velandia, Evan Meek, Doug Mientkiewicz, Chris Gomez, Byung-Hyun Kim, T.J. Beam, Elmer Dessens
Going: Salomon Torres, Shawn Chacon, Tony Armas, Brad Eldred, Cesar Izturis

Lineup:
Jason Bay doesn't seem to care too much about being a Pirate - in a recent spring game he misplayed the first three balls hit his way, and combined with his comments, lacking enthusiasm, paint a tale that Bay's not particular enjoying his stay in Pittsburgh. To his credit though, new GM Neal Huntington didn't make any stupid signings, the problem is he didn't do much of anything to improve a bad team.

That's a bit unfair, since there doesn't appear to be much he could've done outside of dumping Matt Morris, but I'm still not at the point where the Pirates are a legitimate sleeper pick. Bay, Nyjer Morgan - a possible sleeper fantasy pick - , Xavier Nady, Jose Bautista, Jack Wilson - backed up by the Pirate looking Josh Wilson -, Freddy Sanchez, Adam LaRoche, and Ronny Paulino fill out the lineup card.

Rotation:
Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell shouldn't be dealt, Paul Maholm and Zach Duke could do the team wonders by suddenly becoming above average, and Matt Morris is, well, Matt Morris and everything wrong with the idea of having a "veteran starter" to show the kids how to pitch.

Bullpen:
Matt Capps closes and after Damaso Marte things get a bit spicy. One player to watch for is Evan Meek, he throws hard, but has a tough time consistently knowing where the pitch is heading. Think a typical former Rays' farmhand, much in the mold of Jesus Colome, Jorge Sosa, and Seth McClung, but who knows, maybe he can become useful - at least it's not Dan Kolb again.

So, as many of you know, the team previews have slacked off - well the AL previews never really got started, so I'm going to finish off the NL previews this week by doing them in division sets. Next week I'll begin the AL previews with the rest of the AL East and work my way through each division. It's not as in depth as I'd like, but it's better than nothing.

Florida Marlins
2007 W-L: 71-91
2007 Pythag W-L:
2007 Payroll: ~30 mil
2008 Payroll: ~20 mil
Coming: Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Mark Hendrickson, Jorge Cantu, Dallas McPherson, Luis Gonzalez
Going: Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera

Lineup:
Poor Hanley Ramirez, not only did the team ship out Miguel Cabrera but expect to supplement Hanley with the likes of Jorge Cantu and Dallas McPherson. Both have the chance to be league average or above, but Cantu's mysterious power streak came and went with this "Mongolian beef" cravings, and McPherson combines a power hitter's body with an old man's back.

At least the Marlins will also have Maybin, and he's going to be really, really good. In fact the outfield is a strength for the Fish; both Jeremy Hermida and Josh Willingham are pretty solid players, let's just hope Hermida can stay healthy this year.

Filling out the infield you have the steady if not spectacular Mike Jacobs and Dan Uggla combining with Mike Rabelo and Matt Treanor. Neither should be starting on a major league team, but they're better than Miguel Olivo.

Rotation:
Andrew Miller will have the luxury of growing at his own pace in a pitcher's park, much like Dontrelle Willis did before him, the question is who else will be in the rotation. Scott Olsen will look to rebound following a tough season, Sergio Mitre can't seem to stay healthy, Hendrickson can hopefully be turned into a mid level prospect at the deadline and when that happens the loser of Rick VandenHurk and Ricky Nolasco will step back into the starting five.

Bullpen:
Kevin Gregg is the closer, Justin Miller, Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley, Lee Gardner, and Logan Kensing figure to make up the bullpen. Gregg could be a trade candidate at the deadline - that "proven" closer tag could be applied at any time after all.

The Hook:
They may finish in last this year, but I plead with Jeff Loria; you got your ballpark, now keep Hanley for the loyal fans.

Washington Nationals
2007 W-L:
2007 Pythag W-L:
2007 Payroll: ~37 mil
2008 Payroll: ~55 mil
Coming: Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Paul Lo Duca
Going: Glenn Gibson, Ryan Church, Brian Schneider

Lineup:
The Nationals have, without a doubt, the least dependable outfield in the majors. Full of tools and issues alike Willy Mo Pena, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, Elijah Dukes, and even Ryan Langerhans will compete for three spots,

I suppose I can break the roster down with three questions concerning the position players:

1.    Why bring in Willie Harris, Rob Mackowiak, and Aaron Boone when you have Matt Whitney and a glutton of outfielders all ready?
2.    Johnny Estrada AND Paul Lo Duca? One would suffice; it seems detrimental to Jesus Flores' growth to bring in two declining catchers. I suppose they can stick him in the minors, but still, not the ideal backstop pair.
3.    Are the Nats really going to sit either Dmitri Young or Nick Johnson? It seems like this should've been taken care of during the winter meetings, although the Yankees could reevaluate their first base predicament late in spring.

Notable NRI: Wil Nieves, Humberto Cota, Bret Boone, Pete Orr, and Jorge Padilla

Rotation:
Shawn Hill is being treated with caution thus far, John Patterson, Jason Bergmann, Matt Chico, Tyler Clippard, Tim Redding, John Lannan, and Garrett Mock are options for the rotation. My best guess would be Hill, Patterson Bergmann, Chico, and Clippard, it seems Hill may be skipped the first time through the rotation. Not good.

Bullpen:
It was nice seeing Jesus Colome have success, and I hope he repeats it this year. Chad Cordero will close like usual, Jon Rauch, Luis Ayala, Ryan Wagner, Ry King, Chris Schroder, and Mike Bacsik are others fighting for a rotation spot.

The Hook:
Don't expect big results this or even next year, but if this team can stay clean and hit on some of the risks they've taken you could be looking at a very interesting NL East in 2010 from both Florida and Washington.

Tonight we reach the first sub-.500 team in the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals.

2007 W-L: 78-84
2007 Pythag W-L: 71-91
2007 Payroll:~90 mil
2008 Payroll:~92 mil

Coming: Troy Glaus, Matt Clement, Cesar Izturis, D'Angelo Jimenez, Jason LaRue, Ron Villone

Going: Kip Wells, Jim Edmonds, David Eckstein, Scott Rolen, Scott Spiezio, Gary Bennett, Russell Branan, Miguel Cairo, Troy Percival, Kelly Stinnett, Preston Wilson

Sliding In:
It certainly wasn't the best of times for the defending champs once removed, their season could yet again depend on the elbow of one of their stars.

Offense:
I really liked the Glaus deal for the Cardinals; they got the younger and steadier producer who doesn't have an issue with every single manager he's worked with.

Pujols has elbow issues - or so we think - and it could cost him 2008, if it doesn't expect more Albert being Albert with one exception; less runs batted in thanks to Cesar freaking Izturis leading off. Come on Tony, you're better than that. Adam Kennedy will likely play and bat second. The powerful Chris Duncan will more than likely bat behind Glaus and Pujols, and Skip Schumaker will fill out the lineup along with Bengie Molina.  Brian Barton, Aaron Miles, Jason LaRue, and Josh Phelps will be bench players, with Bo Ryan possibly breaking the pine as well.

Starting Rotation:
Chris Carpenter is scheduled to miss at least half the season, which makes Adam Wainwright the unofficial team ace. He had a very solid if not unnoticed season last year.

Braden Looper and Joel Pineiro - two guys who were relievers opening day last year will take up the second and third rotation slots while Matt Clement and Anthony Reyes fill it out, although the Cards do have an interesting non-roster invitee in Dewon Brazelton, of course him starting a game that matters for the big league club means the season went past hell.

Bullpen:
Jason Isringhausen had a spectacular 2007 season and in the real contract year could test the free agency market for that last big payday. Ryan Franklin, Russ Springer, the brothers Flores, Tyler Johnson, Todd Wellemeyer, and Brad Thompson will compliment Isringhausen, and it'll be interesting to see if Ron Villone can make an appearance this year.

The Hook:
The Cards will only go as far as Pujols and the rotation can carry them - Captain Obvious.

I apologize for the slow week, I had some pre-existing priorities over at DRB, including launching our season preview guide, anyhow I'm back full time and here today to continue the NL previews.

2007 W-L: 82-80
2007 Pythag W-L: 82-80
2007 Payroll: ~108 mil
2008 Payroll: ~100 mil

Coming:Gary Bennett, Andruw  Jones, Hiroki Kuroda, Nook Logan

Going:  Luis Gonzalez, Mark Hendrickson, Mike Lieberthal, Randy Wolf

Sliding In: The Dodgers finished just one game over .500 last season, despite some stellar performances by Brad Penny and Russell Martin. Grady Little lost his job because of Joe Torre, again, and Ned Colletti attempted to buy low this off-season.

Offense:
Speaking of Martin is there any questioning if the Dodgers made the right choice when they decided to deal Dioner Navarro instead of Martin two seasons ago? Not only is he young and really good, but he's also pretty durable, playing in 151 games last season. I believe I read not too long ago that Torre will give Martin more off-days, which makes sense, no use in Martin ending up like that other former Dodgers' catcher Mike Piazza later in his career. Gary Bennett will replace Mike Leiberthal as the reserve catcher.

James Loney and Jeff Kent isn't Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, but it's still damn good. Any given season could be the last for Kent - he'll turn 40 in a mere week - remember when he was a Blue Jay and Indian? Me neither. While Loney finally pushes Nomar Garciaparra out of his way another young corner infielder will have to do the same at third. Andy LaRoche wasn't overly impressive in his short major league voyage last season, but he probably should be the starter at third come March 31st, I guess the good news is Nomar will miss at least 40 games and even more if his declining 2007 play is any indication.

Rafael Furcal will need a bounce back season to hold off Chin-lung Hu, meanwhile Tony Abreu and Mark Sweeney will be key reserves. One of the smarter moves of Colletti's tenure and one of his worst will play side by side in the outfield as Juan Pierre figures to somehow take at-bats away from Matt Kemp and Andruw Jones mans center. Andre Ethier will hold down right with Delwyn Young and Jason Repko acting as bench hands.

Starting Rotation:
Brad Penny is really, really good, and Derek Lowe is in a walk year - if you believe that superstition - they'll be joined by some combination of Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Esteban Loaiza, and Jason Schmidt. You would figure the Dodgers could try and move one of the last two and apparently Schmidt is looking good, but he's not overly dependable anymore.

Bullpen:
38 year old Takashi Saito will close games out for the Blue Crew with Jonathan Broxton, Yhency Brazoban, Jon Meloan, Joe Beimel, possibly Rudy Seanez, Mike Myers, and Tanyon Sturtze filling in the rest of the holes along with the man who will, with no doubt, lead the Torres in appearances; Scott Proctor.

The Hook:
They should be in the race for the playoffs, but I'm not sure if they'll have a seat at the table when all is said and done.

2007 W-L: 83-79
2007 Pythag W-L: 83-79
2007 Payroll: ~71 mil
2008 Payroll: ~81 mil

Coming: Jason Kendall, Mike Cameron, David Riske, Eric Gagne, Salomon Torres, Randy Choate, Guillermo Mota

Going: Johnny Estrada Geoff Jenkins, Francisco Cordero

Sliding In:
Although they fell apart late the Brewers gave the world, and more importantly the National League Central, a primer on what's coming for the next few years.

Offense:
One thing is for sure, with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder the Brewers had quite the corner infield offensive attack. Of course Braun is now in left field, and Fielder is making people forget about his weight, regardless that's quite a 1-2 punch. Rickie Weeks is going to be a popular breakout player, and frankly if he can, you're talking about a legitimate trio that may be top five in the league for the next decade.

Mike Cameron was added in center, if nothing else he adds a true defensive presence along with Bill Hall shifting to third. The Jason Kendall signing makes no sense to me, he's not good, and I'd imagine Eric Munson could out-hit him in 2007 for the league minimum.

J.J. Hardy and an underrated Corey Hart - who in some aspects is a lot like Brad Hawpe - fill out the positional players with Craig Counsell, Joe Dillon, Tony Gwynn Jr., and possibly Gabe Gross - assuming he's not dealt - coming off of the bench along with whomever wins the backup catcher spot.

Starting Rotation:
I'm not even going to say it, okay once, if Ben Sheets can stay healthy...there, I won't finish it, far too painful.

At this point I'm not sure if it's safe to say the Brewers regret the Jeff Suppan signing, but I think they'll be a bit more optimistic about it falling this season. Too many hits allowed suggests his baserunners allowed will regress back towards his career average.

Yovani Gallardo is going to be really, really good, and he'll help fill out the rotation with a combo of Dave Bush, Chris Capuano, Claudio Vargas, and Carlos Villanueva who had a very good season as a pseudo-swing man.

Bullpen:
Despite losing their closer, I don't see the Brewers falling too far off in the bullpen department, although make sure to note that it's going to be a ticking time bomb - something that, while you can say it about any bullpen, this one depends on Eric Gagne bouncing back, post Boston massacre, David Riske and his dangerous peripherals, and Derrick Turnbow. Torres adds a fourth closing option, and Choate as well as Mota are interesting back parts, but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention my old friend Seth McClung. Go get `em Big Red, just make sure you don't tell the catcher that the location of your next pitch "Beats the hell out of you.". Again.

2007 W-L: 84-78
2007 Pythag W-L:
2007 Payroll: ~87 mil
2008 Payroll: ~101 mil

Coming: Mark Kotsay, Tom Glavine, Javier Lopez, Matt DeSalvo

Going: Andruw Jones, Edgar Renteria, Ron Mahay, Julio Franco, Octavio Dotel, Willie Harris, Chad Paronto, Chris Woodward

Sliding In:
Despite acquiring the best bat available last deadline, the Braves missed the playoffs for an unheard of second straight season.

Offense: First the obvious: losing Andruw Jones hurts and Mark Kotsay nor Josh Anderson will replace him. Edgar Renteria being dealt also hurts, but Yunel Escobar should take some of that sting away and become a big fantasy sleeper pick, or at least as big of a sleeper pick as a 24 year old shortstop with a 119 OPS+ can possibly be at this point in the game.

Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira are still really good, so is Chipper Jones, but the team could use a Jeff Francoeur breakout season to aid their decision whether to trade Teixeria at the deadline - assuming they're not in the thick of things, a la leading the division or within three games of a playoff spot - or to just sit on him and take the two first round picks.

Starting Rotation:
Tom Glavine is a Brave again and all is right in the world, except that the Braves are still paying Mike Hampton to be a human pin doll. Without fawning too much, John Smoltz and Tim Hudson were pretty darn great last year, and some form of Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, or Jair Jurrjens will fill out the rotation - assuming that Hampton doesn't rise to the occasion and stay healthy - not likely.

Bullpen:
Rafael Soriano will head into his first season as a closer, however it'll be interesting to see if Bobby Cox would consider giving Mike Gonzalez the gig if Soriano were to struggle. Lefties galore: Jeff Ridgway, Royce Ring, and Will Ohman figure to fight for a spot alongside Tyler Yates, Chris Resop, Peter Moylan, and others - giving the Braves the possibility of two or more lefties in their pen.

The Hook:
The Braves didn't do much to improve and the Mets and Phillies didn't get any worse; if the team is going to make the playoffs it'll be in a wild card role, and even then it's a long shot.

2007 W-L:
85-77 2007 Pythag W-L:
87-77 2007 Payroll:~99 mil
2008 Payroll:~104 mil

Coming: Kosuke Fukudome, Jon Lieber, Chad Fox, Shingo Takatsu

Going: Cliff Floyd, Steve Trachsel, Jason Kendall, Mark Prior

Sliding In:
The Cubs were pretty solid last year, winning the division and more than 85 games for the fourth time this decade - the team only won more than 80 twice in the 90's.

Offense:
Geovany Soto will take over behind the plate, the first time in a while that a veteran hasn't been the fixed starter on the North Side since the early 90's with Rick Wilkins. The 25 year old hasn't had a ton of major league exposure, but his minor league numbers - despite playing in the hitterific PCL - are impressive. Three straight years with OBP's over .350 was finally met with a power outbreak, raising his slugging from the sub-.400 depths to over .650. Henry Blanco figures to be his back-up, when healthy he's not completely awful in doing so and provides some pop.

Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Theriot, Mark DeRosa, and Derrek Lee fill out the infield. Ronny Cedeno, Mark Fontenot, and Daryle Ward will serve off of the bench. Ramirez and Lee are A's on Jim Hendry's report card; acquiring them both for Bobby Hill, Jose Hernandez, and Hee Seop Choi. Lee is good for a high OBP, and around 70 extra base hits, Ramirez has came a long way from being a .280/.330/.448 player with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2002.

The most interesting question about the infield is what would happen if Brian Roberts were acquired; it would make sense that Ryan Theriot would head to the bench, but could DeRosa handle short? Would Piniella's heart, or the Chicago papers, allow him to bench "The Riot"? My gut tells me no, which is too bad for the Cubs, because Theriot is the weakest of the infield players, and it's no where near being close.

Alfonso Soriano, Felix Pie, and Kosuke Fukudome will protect the ivy. Matt Murton, Ward, and Sam Fuld figure to back them up. Soriano's first season in pinstripes was - to say the least - not awe inspiring. He reverted back to his hacky tendencies and forgot how to draw more than 40 walks, remember 2006 is the only season in his entire nine season career that he's drawn more than that arbitrary number.

Fukudome and Pie are question marks, but intriguing at the same time. Pie struggled in his first major league exposure, but has mastered Iowa. Don't mention Corey Patterson around Cubs fans - either in terms of Pie becoming the next or giving Patterson a minor league deal and possible look-see as a stopgag if Pie were to struggle early on. As for Fukudome who knows what exactly he'll do, but assuming he walks and provides a small bit of pop he's probably a worthwhile addition.

Starting Rotation:
Carlos Zambrano is the ace and he's good for more than 210 innings annually, but he allowed ever so slightly more baserunners and homeruns last year than in previous seasons, which could explain how his ERA has risen each of the past four seasons. There's not too much room for concern, but another year of decline is a trend rather than an anomaly.

Ted Lilly and Rich Hill form a solid middle of the rotation arms, with Hill budding into what the Cubs had hoped for from the former Michigan Wolverine. Lilly was the best he's been in a while, there's a possibility of regression, but he should still be above league average.

Jason Marquis, Jon Lieber, Sean Marshall, and Ryan Dempster will fight for the final rotation spot. Lieber and Marshall seem like favorites, but a Brian Roberts trade would likely eliminate Marshall from contention.

Bullpen:
Dempster recording 85 saves the past three years show how valueless a closer and save can be considering Dempster was about as average as you can get.

Carlos Marmol seemingly will take that role, and he should excel, he's electrifying and has the makings of a relief ace. Bob Howry will likely be the top set-up man, although Kerry Wood will make a run at it.

From there it looks like Scott Eyre, Michael Wuertz, Sean Gallagher, Carmen Pignatiello, Neal Cotts, Jose Ascanio, Angel Guzman, Kevin Hart, and Rule 5 pick Tim Lahey will compete for a pen spot along with non-roster invitees Chad Fox and Shingo Takatsu.

Fox is - if nothing else - a nice story. The last time he pitched in the majors was in 2005 for the Cubs, although his last good season was in 2003 when he pitched for the Marlins in a World Series title run - doing so very effectively after being released by the Boston Red Sox. Fox of course underwent his second Tommy John Surgery which at the time appeared to end his career, we'll see if he can catch lightning in a bottle.

The Hook:
They have some question marks that need to be answered, but so does every other team. Nobody else in the National League Central, minus perhaps the Reds and Brewers should challenge the Cubs' second straight division title.

2007 W-L:89-74
2007 Pythag W-L:89-74
2007 Payroll:~58 mil
2008 Payroll:~65 mil

Coming:Jeff DaVanon, Robert Fick,Tadahito Iguchi, Mark Prior, Randy Wolf

Going: Geoff Blum, Milton Bradley, Doug Brocail, Mike Cameron, Jack Cassel, Morgan Ensberg, Marcus Giles, Ryan Ketchner, Jason Lane, Rob Mackowiak, Brett Tomko

Sliding In:
The Padres won as many as expected, and reloaded this off-season with Randy Wolf and Mark Prior joining what could be the best rotation in the National League - save your hate mail Mets fans.

Offense
3/4ths of the infield remains the same: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Khalil Greene, and Adrian Gonzalez form a pretty good punch and are joined by new signee Tadahito Iguchi.

In case you've wondered the affects on a player hitting at PETCO, just look at poor Greene: his OPS at home throughout his career is nearly .200 points lower than his road OPS, .658 to .850.

As of now it appears the outfield will be Jim Edmonds, Brian Giles, and possibly Chase Headley or Scott Hairston in left, although one of my personnal favorites, Callix Crabbe will be a dark horse.
If Edmonds can stay healthy and rebound to his 2006 numbers the Padres will be delighted, in fact if he just repeats his 2006 season (.257/.350/.471 ) and splits time in center with Scott Hairston the team should be ecstatic. The problem of course Edmonds suffered nearly every injury known to man last year and I think all those years of hitting the grass, wall, and dirt is starting to show its signs on his body.

Bard is a pretty underrated catcher, and Michael
Barrett who was rumored to be Tampa or Pittsburgh bound will apparently back him up.

Starting Rotation
You'd expect above average performances (ERA+ of 120 and above) from Peavy and Young, and average (95-100) from Maddux and Wolf, but Prior is the wild card, if he can replicate his career average ERA+ 123 the Padres might have the best rotation in the league for the second straight year.

Justin Germano figures to be the spot starter if - or perhaps when - needed. Assuming that the Padres won't catch lightning in a bottle and find Prior and Wolf healthy for an entire season on the same team.

Bullpen:

Trevor Hoffman is the Padres closer, Heath Bell is the set-up man; that spells trouble for teams down with six outs to go.  Carlos Guevara is a screwballer Rule 5 pick, and an intriguing option for the Padres, Cla Meredith returns to his role as ground ball phenomenon, Kevin Cameron, Wil Ledezma, Clay Hensley, Joe Thatcher, and others figure to also compete for a bullpen spot.

In case you forgot, I talked to Paul DePodesta on the Padres in January.

The Hook:
I usually don't make bold predications, but I really cannot imagine this team not winning the division, even with Arizona, Colorado, and Los Angeles nipping at their heels.

[Note: I'll be doing AL team previews this spring; as regular readers know, RJ has a head start on me, but keep an eye out for the remaining 13 AL teams, as I go from best '07 record to worst.]

2007 W-L:  96-66
2007 Pythag W-L: 101-61
2007 Payroll: $143MM
2008 Payroll: ~$150MM

Coming: Sean Casey

Going: Eric Hinske, Brendan Donnelly, Eric Gagne

Sliding In:

They won the World Series in convincing style, and they're back, almost unchanged.  Keeping the team together as is isn't a sentimental move: it's a product of long-term deals in progress, key players still in their arbitration (or even pre-arb) years, and some role players who want to stick around.  There are no guarantees in the AL East, but it'd be hard to bet against these guys repeating their way into the playoffs, at the very least.

Offense:

The last Red Sox World Champions were known for their offensive attack; this time, it wasn't so dramatic.  The '07 Sox were 3rd in the league in run scoring, just behind the Tigers and way behind the Yankees.  Adjusted for park, it's a little less impressive, as Fenway played even more hitter-friendly than usual last year.

The advantage, naturally, is that there's plenty of room to improve.  Mike Lowell was the only regular to far outperform expectations; Pedroia and Varitek probably beat out plenty of projections too, but not by the same margin.  The glaring holes in the offense were up the middle, in Julio Lugo and Coco Crisp.  

Neither Lugo nor Crisp is likely to turn things around and win a Silver Slugger, but neither is likely to head further south, either.  Lugo posted a career-worst OPS+ of 65, thanks largely to a sub-300 OBP.  Crisp was closer to respectable, but is still 28 years old with two above-average offensive seasons behind him.  What's more, Jacoby Ellsbury is around to push him; Ellsbury isn't going to keep hitting .353, but if Crisp's bat slips, there's no reason to give him another 500+ ABs in 2008.

The player who could provide this offense the biggest lift is the one who ranked second in 2007 in OPS+: Manny Ramirez.  Strange as it is to say, his .296/.388/.493 performance was something of a disappointment, and it was by far his worst campaign since he established himself as a regular more than a decade ago.  For the first time in recent memory, the pre-season noise regarding Manny is positive, so perhaps that $20MM 2009 option will lead Manny to another 150-160 OPS+.

The X-factor is team health.  Of the projected starters, Jason Varitek had the fewest ABs with 435, and even the usual subs were ready to go when needed.  J.D. Drew is, of course, always a question mark, and while there aren't many other health risks on the team, the downside of bringing the same team back is that everyone is a year older, and with enough 30-somethings on the team, bad luck happens.

But as long as major injuries don't strike, it's hard to imagine this team scoring fewer than 850 runs, and it's easy to dream up a scenario where they once again see the sunny side of 900.

Starting Rotation:

As with the starting lineup, the 2007 starting rotation is back.  There's better news here, though: while all five guys are available, it's highly unlikely that they'll all return to the rotation.

Of course, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, and Curt Schilling will all be back, and Tim Wakefield will probably get his share of starts.  But, for those of you who have (mercifully) forgotten, Julian Tavarez started 23 games for the '07 Sox, and unless disaster strikes, he shouldn't top 3 starts in '08.

The difference is youth: Jon Lester is healthy and able to contribute, and Clay Buchholz's September audition strongly suggested he's ready to pitch in the bigs.  It was surely tempting for the Sox to part with one of those (and others) to acquire Johan Santana, but if both Lester and Buchholz perform up to expectations, the Sox could have the best rotation in the league anyway.

Of course, when talking about starting rotations, it's dangerous, and often just plain wrong, to say something like "if all goes well," so I'm not about to put my money down on a team ERA of 3.50.  But, when Wakefield is your 6th starter, and Tavarez (yes, a 5.15 ERA, but that's a 92 ERA+ in Fenway) behind him, it's really hard to be negative about this group.

The rotation was very good in 2007, and it is likely to be better in 2008.

Bullpen:

If there's one aspect of the 2007 Red Sox's performance that screams, "Regression!" it's the core of the bullpen.  The top six of Papelbon, Okajima, Lopez, Timlin, Snyder, and Delcarmen combined for about 320 innings and none of them had an ERA above 4.00.  (Paps, Okajima, and Delcarmen were all below 2.25.)

I'm not saying those guys aren't good, but except for Papelbon and maybe Okajima, they are almost certainly not that good.  Timlin will be 42, and while he's likely to be solid, he's equally like to take a step back; Snyder came out of nowhere to be a credible reliever; and as with the starting lineup, once some early-season jumbling was over, the bullpen stayed remarkably healthy.

This will still be a good bullpen, though.  For one thing, there won't be 20 innings of utter crap from Eric Gagne.  There'll be no messing around with Joel Pineiro, either.  Since we are talking about relievers, someone will get hurt, and somebody like David Aardsma will show up and underwhelm for a few weeks, but because of the depth of the pen, Terry Francona isn't likely to hand any important innings to the Pineiro of 2008.

And, while Pepto-Bismol sales will suffer for it, there will be no reason to trade for next year's Eric Gagne, either.

The Hook

There are really only two scenarios in which the Red Sox don't again go deep into the playoffs.  The more likely of the two is that team health doesn't hold up.  A pair of injuries to, say, Manny and Beckett wouldn't cripple the team, but it would make this group look a lot more like a 90-win crew than a 100-win one.

The other reflects the fact that the Red Sox don't play in a bubble.  Once again, there will be four very solid teams in two divisions, and among the Yankees, Sox, Indians, and Tigers, it's very possible that a 95-game winner will be left out of the playoffs.  I would guess that the Sox will outperform at least one of those other teams, but you can make rosy projections for the Yanks, Indians, and Tigers too.

My foolish prediction: 98 wins and a loss in the ALCS.

Philadelphia Phillies
2007 W-L: 89-73
2007 Pythag W-L: 87-75
2007 Payroll: ~89
2008 Payroll: ~84 (depends heavily on Ryan Howard arbitration case)

Coming: Chad Durbin, Pedro Feliz, Geoff Jenkins, So Taguchi, Brad Lidge, Eric Bruntlett, Chris Snelling

Going:Tadahito Iguchi, Jon Lieber, Aaron Rowand, Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, Chris Roberson

Sliding In:

The Phillies were the first playoff victims of the rolling Colorado Rockies, getting swept 3-0 in the Division Series.

Offense:
Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins form perhaps the best offensive infield in the National League. Howard is 27 and while he didn't hit 58 homeruns like 2006 he was still pretty damn good, not .313/.425/.659 good, but .268/.392/.584 was good enough for fifth in Most Valuable Player voting and the fifth best OPS from a first baseman.

Utley lead second basemen in OPS, and Rollins finished second to Hanley Ramirez. With the average age of the holy trinity of offensive threats being around 28 that puts each player in their assumed "prime", suggesting the Phils should have another huge year from each barring injuries or unforeseen falloffs.

Pedro Feliz doesn't add much offensive value, but his glove is solid, and it's not like he can do much worse than Abraham Nunez or Wes Helms did last year. Carlos Ruiz should be solid enough behind the plate, and Chris Coste will back him up with Rod Barajas up in Canada. On the bench ex-Astro Eric Bruntlett will back up short and second while Greg Dobbs and Helms do duty between first and third.

The outfield will have to replace Aaron Rowand's year, and between Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, Geoff Jenkins, and whatever combination of Werth and Taguchi get thrown out there on any given day.

It's hard to not like Burrell's .400 OBP, and for all the grief he got about being broken in 2003 he's put together four straight truly solid seasons with a steady slugging the past three years between .502 and .504. It's a bit disappointing that he doesn't get much attention, but alas I suppose that's the difference between playing in Philadelphia and New York, at least in New York his boos would've been exchanged with billboard ads by now.

Starting Rotation:
Cole Hamels and Brett Myers are really good. As a 23 year old Hamel posted a 3.39 ERA and a 1.124 WHIP with more than a 4:1 K:BB ratio, that's pretty damn impressive, and it came with his home games being in a hitter's park. Myers never should've been moved from the rotation, but in the end it seems like everything will work out for the best, even though it gives off the impression that the last three outs are different from the first three.

Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer form the soft tossers for the group - I feel like J.P. Howell should land here just to learn from these two how to live without blazing heat. Kendrick is hopefully taking notes from Moyer, he's going to need to have a large K:BB ratio than 2:1 if he expects to be above average in the bigs, something he showed in the minors, if just barely. Moyer's probably entering his last season - I wouldn't expect much from him, but it wouldn't shock me if he had a few 7 inning shutout performances like he did last season before riding off into announcing or whatever it is he wants to do.

Adam Eaton is slotted in as the fifth starter, his performance last year was, in a word, unspectacular.  J.D. Durbin the swingman who will no doubt get at least 10 starts this year, like he did last year.

Bullpen:
Lidge is a pretty nice addition to any pen, and the fact that he allowed the Phils to undo that mistake of putting Brett Myers in the pen is even better. For all the talk of his early season struggles (read April) he was actually better in the first half (2.34 ERA) than in the second half (4.45 ERA).

Tom Gordon has been around forever and figures to form with J.C. Romero and Ryan Madson as the late inning relievers. Romero's career WHIP is 1.5, his WHIP in Philly was 1.1, something tells me he's not nearly as good as that 1.1 suggests, that something being an absurdly low LD% and xBABIP / BABIP, without a doubt those numbers are going to return to their average range, and when they do he's not going to look like a four million dollar annually pitcher.

Some mix of Scott Mathieson, Chad Durbin, J.D. Durbin, Clay Condry, Mike Zagurski, and Francisco Rosario will fill out the bullpen, frankly any pen with a pair of Durbins is one worth watching, and keep an eye on Zagurski, he's a true blue LOOGY, in splits at least, not usage: 50 AB v. RHB 1.051 OPS against, 37 AB v. LHB .502 OPS against.

The Hook:
The Phillies look improved, although I'm not sure how much, I don't doubt that they'll finish in playoff contention, but the division title is going to require a ton of things going right for them, and you never know with Wild Card spots - see the Rockies.

NL Up Next: San Diego Padres on Wednesday