Beyond the Box Score: FanShots

"But, good luck convincing THT's Harry Pavlidis or Lucas Apostoleris to tag three and a half...

2012-02-03T23:56:55Z

"But, good luck convincing THT's Harry Pavlidis or Lucas Apostoleris to tag three and a half million pitches, because that would be insane.

What’s that you say? They’ve actually done that?! By that, I mean individually tagged every pitch. This isn’t a very efficient solution, but it escapes the problems above by putting a human hand on the classification problem.

Your mission, if you choose to accept us: Help us validate.

How:

1) Run around like children in Wonka’s chocolate factory and consume as much data as possible (do not drink directly from the waterfall).
2) Using your knowledge of pitchers that you watch every day, let us know what looks wrong by starting threads on the BrooksBaseball.net Forums (we’ll have a thread for each pitcher, there are examples already there).
3) Use these graphs and tables however you want in any of your favorite blogs. Consult legal counsel first, and sign this waiver releasing us from liability.
4) Help us by sponsoring your favorite pitcher or two if you think what we’ve done is cool. This is an important step. Just like on Baseball Reference, you can add your own witty message to appear every time someone pulls up a card."

Just amazing stuff from Dan Brooks, Harry Pavlidis, and Lucas Apostoleris.

The problems with the Year After Effect are multifold. In Verducci’s article this year, he asserts...

2012-02-02T18:21:29Z

The problems with the Year After Effect are multifold. In Verducci’s article this year, he asserts the validity of the effect by saying, "In just the past six years, for instance, I flagged 55 pitchers at risk for an injury or regression based on their workload in the previous season.

Forty-six of them, or 84 percent, did get hurt or post a worse ERA in the Year After." He later says, "Two out of the nine pitchers I red flagged last year actually stayed healthy or improved… more typical, though, were the regressions last year by David Price, Phil Hughes, Mat Latos and Brett Cecil, all of whom I red-flagged."

Baseball Prospectus | Resident Fantasy Genius: Verducci Effect: Fact or Fake? (subscription required)

Not that you thought it was real, but hey.

But times have changed. As Kevin Goldstein pointed out earlier this winter, there are some...

2012-02-01T21:14:48Z

But times have changed. As Kevin Goldstein pointed out earlier this winter, there are some convincing reasons to believe that Quad-A players do exist. Some players may have the tools necessary to destroy Triple-A pitching, but due to their skill sets — poor defenders, unathletic, slow swings — they have a difficult time succeeding in the majors.

When you think about it in the abstract, prospects fail in the minor leagues all the time; at some point, everyone hits their ceiling. Some players can succeed in Single-A, but then can’t make the jump to Double-A. Others can thrive in college, but can’t make the adjustment to pro ball.

When looked at through this lens, it’s unrealistic to imagine that Quad-A players don’t exist at all. The trick is sorting out which prospects have hit their ceiling, and which ones need to be given more time to adjust.

Russ Canzler, Dan Johnson, and the Quad-A Label | FanGraphs Baseball

Good stuff by Steve here.

Most Career Pitching rWAR, 20th Century Pitchers with Career of 12 Years or Less

2012-01-26T15:03:16Z

Most Career Pitching rWAR, 20th Century Pitchers with Career of 12 Years or Less

Sandy Koufax (54.5)
Joe McGinnity (53.7)
Nap Rucker (41.7)
Brad Radke (41.4)
Addie Joss (40.9)

The Astros added to their statistical strength in the front office, hiring Mike Fast, formerly of...

2012-01-24T18:36:01Z

The Astros added to their statistical strength in the front office, hiring Mike Fast, formerly of Baseball Prospectus to serve in the baseball operations department.

Fast, one of the foremost experts on pitch trajectory (PITCHf/x) data, has also written on HITf/x data for BP. Some of his latest writings have been on hit-and-run success, quantifying how much control pitchers have over batted balls and an analysis of hot and cold zones for hitters.

"We’re definitely excited to have someone with his background and interests," general manager Jeff Luhnow said. "It’s a lot of the same things that we’re interested in studying."

Ultimate Astros » Astros add ‘Baseball Prospectus’ alum Fast in drive for stats knowledge

After reading about George Brett hitting 23 HRs and 20 3Bs in 1979, I wanted to see who else was in...

2012-01-23T14:25:44Z

After reading about George Brett hitting 23 HRs and 20 3Bs in 1979, I wanted to see who else was in this 20/20 club. Here are the seven players that have made the club:

Name,HRs,3Bs,Year
Willie Mays,35,20,1957
Jim Bottomley,31,20,1928
Jimmy Rollins,30,20,2007
Jeff Heath,24,20,1941
Curtis Granderson,23,23,2007
George Brett,23,20,1979
Frank Schulte,21,21,1911

I decided to expand the search to the 15/15 club. It is interesting to see the times when speed and power was displayed in the game. Also there is the total lack of players reaching this milestone during the 1990's. The only player to reach the feat in the 2010's was Shane Victorino with in 2011 with 17 HRs and 16 3Bs

There is a term used among fantasy baseball adherents to talk about players who were hyped...

2012-01-19T19:01:30Z

There is a term used among fantasy baseball adherents to talk about players who were hyped prospects once upon a time, and then went bust, and just as they were over-rated when they were young and their upside appeared limitless, they’ve become under-rated now that the shine has worn off.

They’re called "post-hype sleepers". That’s what Francoeur and Cabrera were: post-hype sleepers. They were such deep sleepers, in fact, that even people who were familiar with the strategy thought that Dayton Moore was insane. He wasn’t. For at least one off-season, failed phenoms were the new market inefficiency, and Moore profited greatly from it.

Rany on the Royals

Why We'll Miss Craig Counsell - Batting Stance Guy | Baseball Nation

2012-01-19T03:52:59Z

Why We'll Miss Craig Counsell - Batting Stance Guy | Baseball Nation