Beyond the Box Score: FanShots

Will Pujols rebound?

2012-05-11T03:32:13Z

Will Pujols rebound?

Albert Pujols might be done hitting as we've known him.

LaHairs

2012-05-08T16:52:35Z

LaHairs

Looking for the best Late-Bloomers in baseball's past.

Tweaking FIP: now with even less defense!

2012-05-04T18:56:17Z

Tweaking FIP: now with even less defense!

Here's some work I did recently on a modification of FIP that has even less dependence on defense and luck. The result is a metric with better year-to-year correlation with itself, and better predictive power for ERA.

A lot of the comparison built off of a BTB post from earlier this year, so I just wanted to say thanks and to share the link for anyone who's interested.

Since we added Sean Smith's ("rallymonkey" to some) Wins Above Replacement measurement in 2010,...

2012-05-04T16:42:43Z

Since we added Sean Smith's ("rallymonkey" to some) Wins Above Replacement measurement in 2010, we've seen its use expand in to many new areas and its popularity catch on in the media and the general population, but there have also been a lot of questions about how it's calculated and whether it has validity. In this tutorial, I'm going to run through the calculations in graphic detail and point out areas where our approach differs from some of the other popular WAR or WAR-like approaches.

Baseball-Reference.com WAR Explained

'Every Game, I Used Drugs': The Story Of Willie Mays Aikens

2012-05-03T02:44:04Z

'Every Game, I Used Drugs': The Story Of Willie Mays Aikens

Pitch Counts Pointless

2012-04-28T16:39:00Z

Pitch Counts Pointless

Pitchers that throw more stay healthier. Why?

"It will come as a shock to no one to learn that Barry Bonds not only holds four of the top 10...

2012-04-25T17:27:41Z

"It will come as a shock to no one to learn that Barry Bonds not only holds four of the top 10 seasons all time in terms of the fewest outs generated per plate appearance, but actually holds the top four spots all by his lonesome. In 2004, Bonds posted an all-time great OBP of .609 and only grounded into five double plays all year, leading to another all-time number–fewest outs generated per plate appearance.

The next five spots after Bonds are peppered with the great Ted Williams and Mickey Mantle. Even with double-digit GDPs in 1954 and 1957, Williams still managed to avoid outs at a fantastic rate. Rounding out the top 10 is Mark McGwire during his 2000 season, where he posted a .483 OBP and only grounded into five double plays."

via www.fangraphs.com

You've noticed the delicate, almost-perfect balance of a baseball field. A grounder to short often...

2012-04-25T17:20:00Z

You've noticed the delicate, almost-perfect balance of a baseball field. A grounder to short often results in a play decided by a step or less. The throw from a catcher to second on a steal attempt usually arrives with a half-second of the runner. If the dimensions were just a little different, everything would be different. But they aren't. The double play, the relay throw, a pitcher covering first -- it's all an exhibition of geometric precision.

And every couple dozen games, a runner will attempt to dislodge a ball from the guy holding it. It doesn't fit. It makes no sense. And then you get to the part where the catcher is often defenseless, or at least not set up to take a shot from a 200-pound man running at full speed. It's a silly play before you get to the dangerous part. Then it becomes untenable.

The Aesthetic Argument Against Home-Plate Collisions - Baseball Nation