2013's Most Unexpected...So Far
With projection being an inexact science, we occasionally see players exceeding or falling short of their projections. Who has exceeded their supposed level the most so far in 2013?
Research
"Clutch Skill" of Baseball's Relievers and Bullpen
Finding the "clutch skill" of 2013's best and worst bullpens and relievers.
What's in a Start?
How often do various aspects of a start occur? What is a team's probability of winning based on a starting pitcher's performance? Do we need to change the criteria for a quality start?
Estimating "Skill" of Hitting with RISP
Investigating the Cardinals success with RISP, and testing to see if batting average with runners in scoring postion is a repeatable skill, then estimating an expected "skill" with RISP.
Analyzing Top 100 Prospect Walks and Strikeouts
What are the success rates for prospects based on their walk and strikeout totals? Bonus: current prospect analysis.
Investigating the "Lefty Strike"
The strike zone is called differently depending on the handedness of the hitter in the box. We examine the area furthest off the plate called regularly for strikes to see how left-handed hitters fare beyond the outside edge of the plate.
Projecting BABIP Part One: Applying Bayes' Theorem
Applying Bayes' Theorem to find the hidden rate in which a hitter reaches base via the three (almost) true outcomes of batted balls -- LD, FB, and GB.
OBP, SLG, and the Variability of Seasons
Baseball seasons come with a certain amount of variability. However, we only get one season to observe. So how could we answer whether certain hitting styles lead to more variable seasons?
Are the Best Players Former Prospects?
How many of the top 100 players in a given year were ranked in the Baseball America top 100?
Shark's in the Water: Samardzija Emerges
Jeff Smardzija didn't seem like much of a threat a few years ago. Now he's turned into one of the best power pitchers in MLB.
Greatest Discrepancies in Career Fielding
Looking at the careers where UZR, DRS, and FRAA disagree the most.
Finding the Next MLB City: The "Underdogs"
There are many metro areas competing to be the next host of a MLB franchise, but five are faced with a tall task: they are smaller than every current MLB market. This post looks at whether those cities have what it takes to overcome these odds.
Which Catchers Intimidate Runners the Most?
Which catchers' arms bring fear into the legs of runners and how big is the effect?
Mike Trout and the "Super Cycle"
Looking at cycles and "super cycles" throughout MLB history.
Much Ado About Bunting
What makes a player a good, or successful, bunter? Is it because they have good to great speed? Is it because there truly is a skill associated with laying down a good bunt?
Lineup Styles, Part Two
While OBP and SLG correlate almost equally to scoring, we will dive in further, seeing if the individual hitters make any more of a difference.
Lineup Styles, Part One
It is generally assumed that a balanced lineup is the most efficient, but is there any truth to this? Using team OBP, wOBA, and R/G, are there any trends that pop up over the past 17 years?
Expected Strikeout and Walk Outliers
Which pitchers strikeout and walk more or fewer batters than we expect and what similarities do they have?
How and When does Velocity Change During a Start?
Taking a look at fastball velocity trends of starting pitchers over the course of a typical game.
Adjusting Pitching for Quality of Offense
With pitcher performance partially influenced by the opponent they face, we develop the statistic OARA (Opponent Adjusted Runs Average, pronounced like "aura") to adjust for this.
Changing Philosophy with Well-Hit Balls
WHB analysis has provided a new way to look at baseball. Before leaving the subject, it's essential to know why the WHB theory is important and what it could mean for the future of baseball analytics.
A Closer Look at Home Run Perception
Splitting up the Home Run Perception data in any way possible.
Stolen Base Rates for Pitchers
Which pitchers are best at preventing the stolen base? And which pitchers are giving away the extra base?
Failing to Predict Walk Rates
I threw everything at the wall and not much stuck. Walks remain somewhat of a mystery.
What Starters Throw as the Game Progresses
A look at pitch selection for starting pitchers as they face the same hitters multiple times in the same game.
Predicting Strikeouts Using Velocity and Whiffs
Building on a 2012 study, attempting to predict changes in K% based on Whiffs and fastball velocity.
