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The only reason that many of these stats go from crappy to useful or even pretty good? Sample...

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The only reason that many of these stats go from crappy to useful or even pretty good? Sample size. If you have 100 or 200 innings? ERA or RA9 starts becoming useful. Give me a thousand innings, and RA9 is pretty good. BABIP? Well, after several years, a pitcher’s BABIP is a pretty useful metric. A career’s worth of pitcher wins? Well, that’s useful too. And therein lies the reason that people are fooled: because 300+ win level were all reached by great pitchers, then the pitcher Win stat MUST represent greatness, even at the seasonal level. So, even though the significance of a metric is dependent on the sample size, once that significance is reached, the reason for its significance (sample size) is summarily ignored.

THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Specifically, to what extent to do park factors affect the usefulness of various ERA estimators? It...

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Specifically, to what extent to do park factors affect the usefulness of various ERA estimators? It seems reasonable to assume that while much of what happens when a ball is put in play is not controlled by a pitcher. However, given that some extreme parks are likely to exercise their own environmental force over the outcome of batted balls it stands to reason that ERA estimators that factor in a pitcher’s batted ball profile may do a better job in certain types of parks than others.

Park Factors and ERA Estimators: Part I | FanGraphs Baseball Bill's debut over at FG. Great work and can't wait to see more.

"Nobody has brought up how being on the West Coast should benefit Albert. He'll get away from the...

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"Nobody has brought up how being on the West Coast should benefit Albert. He'll get away from the Midwest summer heat and into cooler nights with less humidity. "I played in Oakland for 11 years, and when we came back from a hot summer city it was refreshing; your body felt a lot better. I truly believe the weather, plus using Albert as a designated hitter, will add three years to his career."

Mark McGwire's reason on why Pujols will have a long career. I would put a bet on the DH, and not the cool nights, will be the reason that Sir Albert will have a long career.

The problems with the Year After Effect are multifold. In Verducci’s article this year, he asserts...

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The problems with the Year After Effect are multifold. In Verducci’s article this year, he asserts the validity of the effect by saying, "In just the past six years, for instance, I flagged 55 pitchers at risk for an injury or regression based on their workload in the previous season. Forty-six of them, or 84 percent, did get hurt or post a worse ERA in the Year After." He later says, "Two out of the nine pitchers I red flagged last year actually stayed healthy or improved… more typical, though, were the regressions last year by David Price, Phil Hughes, Mat Latos and Brett Cecil, all of whom I red-flagged."

Baseball Prospectus | Resident Fantasy Genius: Verducci Effect: Fact or Fake? (subscription required) Not that you thought it was real, but hey.

But times have changed. As Kevin Goldstein pointed out earlier this winter, there are some...

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But times have changed. As Kevin Goldstein pointed out earlier this winter, there are some convincing reasons to believe that Quad-A players do exist. Some players may have the tools necessary to destroy Triple-A pitching, but due to their skill sets — poor defenders, unathletic, slow swings — they have a difficult time succeeding in the majors. When you think about it in the abstract, prospects fail in the minor leagues all the time; at some point, everyone hits their ceiling. Some players can succeed in Single-A, but then can’t make the jump to Double-A. Others can thrive in college, but can’t make the adjustment to pro ball. When looked at through this lens, it’s unrealistic to imagine that Quad-A players don’t exist at all. The trick is sorting out which prospects have hit their ceiling, and which ones need to be given more time to adjust.

Russ Canzler, Dan Johnson, and the Quad-A Label | FanGraphs Baseball Good stuff by Steve here.

The Astros added to their statistical strength in the front office, hiring Mike Fast, formerly of...

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The Astros added to their statistical strength in the front office, hiring Mike Fast, formerly of Baseball Prospectus to serve in the baseball operations department. Fast, one of the foremost experts on pitch trajectory (PITCHf/x) data, has also written on HITf/x data for BP. Some of his latest writings have been on hit-and-run success, quantifying how much control pitchers have over batted balls and an analysis of hot and cold zones for hitters. "We’re definitely excited to have someone with his background and interests," general manager Jeff Luhnow said. "It’s a lot of the same things that we’re interested in studying."

Ultimate Astros » Astros add ‘Baseball Prospectus’ alum Fast in drive for stats knowledge

There is a term used among fantasy baseball adherents to talk about players who were hyped...

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There is a term used among fantasy baseball adherents to talk about players who were hyped prospects once upon a time, and then went bust, and just as they were over-rated when they were young and their upside appeared limitless, they’ve become under-rated now that the shine has worn off. They’re called "post-hype sleepers". That’s what Francoeur and Cabrera were: post-hype sleepers. They were such deep sleepers, in fact, that even people who were familiar with the strategy thought that Dayton Moore was insane. He wasn’t. For at least one off-season, failed phenoms were the new market inefficiency, and Moore profited greatly from it.

Rany on the Royals

The deal came down to the wire, with minutes left to go before the deadline. Failing to sign...

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The deal came down to the wire, with minutes left to go before the deadline. Failing to sign would've kept Darvish with the Nippon Ham Fighters -- and the Rangers would've kept their $52 million posting fee. Now, though, they have their phenom. The big question going forward is whether the $112M+ they're spending to get him could've been better spent, either in keeping C.J. Wilson or pursuing Prince Fielder. What do you think? Good investment?

MLB Daily Dish - MLB Trade Rumors and Signings

Looking to find which player has the Best Power on the team, I considered several key points of...

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Looking to find which player has the Best Power on the team, I considered several key points of data that all relate to a hitter’s power. I started the search for candidates with the players 2011 isolated power, or ISO. ISO is a perfect starting point because it separates extra base hits from contact ability by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage. Once I eliminate the player’s with only a handful of plate appearances (sorry, John Lackey, your .333 ISO doesn’t count), I have a pretty good list of candidates for this award.

Boston’s Best Tools 2012: Best Power - Over the Monster

I'm just wondering. Does anyone really care to stack up Mickey Mantle's integrity and character...

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I'm just wondering. Does anyone really care to stack up Mickey Mantle's integrity and character next to, say, Jeff Bagwell's? Or for that matter, Mark McGwire's? Or Rafael Palmeiro's? Baseball players have been exhibiting monumental deficiencies of integrity and character for well more than a century, and it's just now that Hall of Fame voters are going to take those words seriously?

Hey, While We're At It, Can We Kick Mickey Mantle Out Of Cooperstown? - Baseball Nation It suddenly strikes me that Rob Neyer is both the hero we deserve, AND the hero we want.
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