This is a tough call for teams. Kuroda appears to be the kind of guy who could pitch effectively until he's 40. But when pitchers get to the age Kuroda will be in 2012, teams get leery. He's probably a better fit for a club like Arizona or Boston, a team that could use one more starter to get them "over the top", than the Cubs, who likely have a longer way to go before contention.

A pitcher's success depends upon many circumstances, some of which are beyond his own control, so that, no matter how faithfully or intelligently he may work, he must still suffer from the annoyance and mortification of defeat.

In the tenth inning of the Saturday night game between the Marlins and Mets, Scott Cousins made an interesting decision that apparently got the Marlins’ brass talking.

In a situation with no one out and Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan at second and first respectively, David Wright popped a foul ball into right field that Cousins intentionally dropped...

Rally:
Baseball is nothing like quantum physics. Most sabermetric principles are not hard at all. Which is why it can be so frustrating with some people. If I’m ignorant about physics it’s because I haven’t studied it. To be so ignorant about pitcher wins, for someone who apparently has a lifetime of experience with baseball, takes willfull ignorance.

While Tango may be right about a pitcher being responsible for 1/3 of the game, that takes a bit of time to derive. What is simple is this:

1. Baseball is 50% offense, 50% defense.
2. A pitcher (especially in the AL with DH rules) has no impact on offense. So he’s down to 50% at most.
3. How much impact do the 8 fielders have? At the very least can people accept that having Ozzie Smith play shortstop will save you more runs than Adam Dunn playing shortstop?
4. If so, then even the most minimal impact of defense means that the pitcher is responsible for less than 50% of the end result.

Tango:
The reality is that there isn’t a single GM and a single fan that would look at the 13-12 record of Felix and Weaver and then somehow pay them less because they were 13-12. Felix and Weaver before 2010 would have gotten a 20MM$+ contract on the free agent market, and Felix and Weaver after 2010 would get a 20MM$+ contract as free agents. And so, exactly how are we helped knowing they went 13-12, if our opinion of them hasn’t been changed at all?

I’ve used defensive efficiency, and people are like, "What the hell is that?" I do think that it's a somewhat illustrative stat for team defense. How often does this team turn a batted ball into an out. I think the top teams for defensive efficiency are based on what you see, good defensive teams.

I talk about the Fielding Bible statistics. I think fielding statistics are still evolving. But they’re one of the best at trying to evaluate each and every player defensively. Who else looks at every single play? Is there still some subjectivity? Of course. But they’re doing it as thoroughly as anybody I know, so I’ll use some of their numbers. Like Austin Jackson made 10 more plays in center field than anyone else last year. That’s impressive. I felt in watching him, I felt, That’s Gold Glove caliber defense in center field. He made +33 plays, +21 runs saved. That’s both the best at his position. I try to ask, Does it give people are clear understanding and is it something they can use? Then I’ll try to introduce it.

Twins have homer-killing park, fly ball staff, and an iffy defensive outfield. One of those things doesn't belong.

That is, among players on the borderline, total WAR is a much stronger indicator than number of great seasons.

For example, there are 8 players with at least 12 3+ WAR seasons, and only two of them is in the HOF: Brooks Robinson, Carlton Fisk. There are 11 players with AT MOST 8 3+ WAR seasons, and 7 of them are in the HOF (Perez, Dawson, Stargell among others).

However, among players with at least 5+ 6 WAR seasons, 7 of 9 are in HOF (not Santo, Jimmy Wynn).

Phillies Team Preview

This is an offense that could be very good if Utley and Rollins both play 150 games and either Ibanez fights off aging or Brown matures quickly. This is an offense that could be a problem if more than one or two of those things go awry. There is talent here, but there is also a good deal of risk, and a lack of legitimate backup plans means that the Phillies may be scrambling to make some trades this summer.

Greg Maddux faced 20,421 batters in his career. Just 310 of them saw a 3-0 count. That's roughly one every three starts.

MOORE: … It is hard for hitters to develop beyond their level of competition. It is easier for pitchers to improve their game in some ways, a 90 MPH fastball is a 90 MPH fastball. But a hitter, he gets used to facing whatever pitchers he’s facing, he gets grooved to facing that. You can’t learn to hit against pitchers with plus velocity or great breaking stuff unless you see them.