FanShot Chats
MLB Situational Percentages
I have been looking around for MLB situational percentages. For example, how often is there a runner on first with zero outs, one out, two outs. How often is there a runner on third base with 2 outs, etc. Also how often a runner from second scores on a single, a runner on first scores on a double, etc. Any information about where I can find this or how I can go about finding this information would be helpful. Thanks!
Rob Neyer Chat 11/24
Harrison (New Jersey): Rob - if you're the Yankees, why would you want to be tied for 4+ years to a player who may not be able to hit, doesn't have a long term position and can't be benched/dropped in the lineup because of his name and reputation? How can people criticize the Yankees for trying to manage their organization rationally?Rob Neyer: You might have noticed, Harrison, that some significant percentage of baseball fans are not significantly rational.
Fans are (for the most part) rational, Rob. But that doesn't mean the only thing we want to maximize are wins. For that matter, that's not the only thing the Yankees want to maximize, either.
Tommy Hunter vs. Scott Feldman
Need some help settling a debate with a friend. He says Tommy Hunter has performed much better than Scott Feldman so far this year. I say Hunter hasn't pitched that much better (just slightly better) but has gotten a lot luckier so far (as far as the ERA and W/L of the team during the outings of each are concerned). Which of us (if either) is correct? What arguments/stats would you use to make your case?
Keeping Score Question
I have started keeping score again after taking a long break from it and I had a question and I thought this would be the best place to ask. If there is a runner on first base with two out and the batter grounds into a fielder's choice, is the batter considered to have been left on base? or if the fielders choose to throw the batter out, do I move the runner to second?
Morgan Ensberg
Morgan Ensberg was in the broadcast booth for a NCAA Arizona State vs. Arkansas game tonight. He was on his twitter during the game, and asked for things to say. I tweeted this. Later in the inning, he said something along the lines of "We've never brought up sabermetrics before". His broadcasting partner Justin Kutcher then said "I hate them", to which Morgan replied "I love them".
minor league batted ball data
Does anybody know where I can get minor league batted ball data the day after games?
Steve Phillips is smart
Steve Phillips: If the Mets don't make the playoffs, I firmly believe they need to reconfigure the core of this team. While Beltran does have talent, I just don't see him as a winning player. Even after my comments on Sunday night, Beltran let a fly ball drop in between himself and Angel Pagan in the Dodger game. I see him putting up numbers but not making plays to win games. I would take Torii Hunter, Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, and Nate McLouth over Beltran, and use the financial difference to improve the team in other ways. Beltran isn't a $17 million dollar a year player. He just doesn't have the kind of impact for that kind of money.
Jonah Keri talking to his friend about the genius moves of the Mets management team.
Seth: may i offer a pop quiz?me: shootSeth: you are the manager of a baseball teamSeth: this team has blown a 3-2 lead in this game it is the bottom of the 9th down 1 bases loaded 2 out you have a choiceme: OMIR SANTOS!!! (Ed note: At this point I thought Manager Jerry Manuel had blown the game by not pinch-hitting for Santos. Nope. It was MUCH worse than that.)Seth: WHAT THE ****** **** *******?! I can’t evne type i’m so angryme: Who was on the bench? Sheff?Seth: no, no one castillo and delgado both hurtme: Oh Well then…what?Seth: but castro was 2-4 with an rbi and has the added advantage of not being a career minor leaguer with a .650 career MINOR LEAGUE opsme: WAIT They pinch hit Santos for Castro?!Seth: yes. that is exactly what happened.me: Santos a LH batter? (Ed note: Santos is so crappy that even a certified seamhead like me isn’t sure of his handedness.)Seth: nope oh! also! santos was in the bullpen catchingme: COME ON! YOU’RE LYING!Seth: so didn’t even like, run a sprint or take a practice swing. god i wish i were it took 3 min to do the substitution because he had to take his gear off and run in from the outfield i don’t think i even could make this upSeth: if i’m ramon castro right now, i’m the angriest person everSeth: 650 CAREER MINOR LEAGUE OPS! he hits one grand slam and all of a sudden he’s carlton fucking fisk. i almost always a) have patience with managers and b) give them the benefit of the doubt. jerry manuel should be fired. today. i am actually eating the stressball in my office. i think i need a doughnut.
Question: More fun with BINOMDIST
Okay... this is probably easier than I think and I just suck at math, or I'm so bad at math that it's a lot more complicated than I think it should be... Basically, I'm trying to figure out how using something relatively straightforward in Excel like BINOMDIST, how, given a player's wOBA, we can figure out, over a certain number of PAs (say, 700), what the player's chances of having a better or worse wOBA than his expected. Actually, I'm trying to do this with respect to wRAA, so that I can figure out the odds of a player "hitting well enough" to play position x, say, 1B (+12.5). The problem of negative numbers might come up... I dunno. Lil' help?
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