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Win Expectancy Calculator

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Based on the number of runs scored, I have determined that the formula for win expectancy is the following: Win expectancy = 1-((1/(RS+4.5))^((RS^1.14)/14.1)) [?] RS = runs scored I discovered the coefficients of 1.14 and 14.1 by calculating the cumulative amount of deviation from normal win expectancies (1969-2011), weighted for instances of runs scored, using an extremely vast array of coefficients in MS Excel, effectively using what I like to call a "bowl apparatus". Based on the repetition of the formulas with varying coefficients, 1.14 and 14.1 gave me the lowest cumulative deviation value. Remarkably, even though this was done using data only from 1969-2011, the correlation is even stronger (using these same coefficients) when data is expanded to 1901-2011, and actually accounted for many of the biggest deviations! This suggests that the formula works just as well, if not better, for games before 1969. The link above will take you to Baseball-Reference's situation calculator - try this for yourself! The link below has the collected data. Win expectancy chart (with deviations)

Anthony Rizzo, Balk Rule, Troy Tulowitzki, Baseball Politics, and More - Rob's Mailbag, Episode 5

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Anthony Rizzo, Balk Rule, Troy Tulowitzki, Baseball Politics, and More - Rob's Mailbag, Episode 5

Beautiful colorization attempt for Willie Mays' catch - h/t reddit

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7231074678_3faa94a82b_o

Beautiful colorization attempt for Willie Mays' catch - h/t reddit

Will Pujols rebound?

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Albert Pujols might be done hitting as we've known him.

LaHairs

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Looking for the best Late-Bloomers in baseball's past.

Tweaking FIP: now with even less defense!

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Here's some work I did recently on a modification of FIP that has even less dependence on defense and luck. The result is a metric with better year-to-year correlation with itself, and better predictive power for ERA. A lot of the comparison built off of a BTB post from earlier this year, so I just wanted to say thanks and to share the link for anyone who's interested.

Since we added Sean Smith's ("rallymonkey" to some) Wins Above Replacement measurement in 2010,...

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Since we added Sean Smith's ("rallymonkey" to some) Wins Above Replacement measurement in 2010, we've seen its use expand in to many new areas and its popularity catch on in the media and the general population, but there have also been a lot of questions about how it's calculated and whether it has validity. In this tutorial, I'm going to run through the calculations in graphic detail and point out areas where our approach differs from some of the other popular WAR or WAR-like approaches.

Baseball-Reference.com WAR Explained

'Every Game, I Used Drugs': The Story Of Willie Mays Aikens

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'Every Game, I Used Drugs': The Story Of Willie Mays Aikens

Pitch Counts Pointless

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Pitchers that throw more stay healthier. Why?

"It will come as a shock to no one to learn that Barry Bonds not only holds four of the top 10...

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Total-outs-generated

"It will come as a shock to no one to learn that Barry Bonds not only holds four of the top 10 seasons all time in terms of the fewest outs generated per plate appearance, but actually holds the top four spots all by his lonesome. In 2004, Bonds posted an all-time great OBP of .609 and only grounded into five double plays all year, leading to another all-time number–fewest outs generated per plate appearance. The next five spots after Bonds are peppered with the great Ted Williams and Mickey Mantle. Even with double-digit GDPs in 1954 and 1957, Williams still managed to avoid outs at a fantastic rate. Rounding out the top 10 is Mark McGwire during his 2000 season, where he posted a .483 OBP and only grounded into five double plays." via www.fangraphs.com

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