This, and Game 7 against my Braves, is the reason why Morris is getting HOF consideration. I know others have shown that he did not have a uncanny ability to allow runs more often only when he had sizable leads. I am showing another, even if it's a less arduous, way that this wasn't true. Using B-R's HR Log, I found the mini-table that shows how far ahead/behind a team is when the home runs are allowed. For this study, I only counted the HR allowed when the pitcher was up 4+ runs. For example, Morris allowed 57 of his 389 HR - 14.7% - up 4 or more runs. Here is a table of 19 pitchers who primarily played from 1960-1995 and their respective percentages.

Morris is high on the list, but not enough to warrant his "pitch to the score" reputation. Of the pitchers ahead of him, Blyleven was much, much better, Tiant was better, and Kaat and Martinez were nearly as good. There are many limitations to this statistic, but it's pretty safe to say Morris was not the pitcher many people think he was.

Back to our original discussion on the effects of foul area (AF) on strikeouts (SO).

The NL has historically SO more hitters than the AL. I've pointed out that the only consecutive years where that hasn't been the case since WWII is 1964-68, the only 5 consecutive years that the AL has led the NL, while the Indians were setting AL SO records! The effect of AF on SO has likely had an impact on the differences in SO between the AL and the NL as well.

From 1954-1963, and 1964-68, when the Indians' staff was setting AL SO records, the NL parks 29,400 average sq. ft. foul area, and the AL 32,000 sq. ft.. This 2,600 sq. ft. difference translates to 8.9% more average AF in the AL compared to the NL, adjusted for ball-park years. Less AF, fewer foul balls caught on field, more SO opportunities and SO, as we've pointed out in the earlier posts.

The NL led the AL in SO / 9 innings from 1954-63 by 3.9%, from 1947-1963 by approximately 4.5%, before Siebert, McDowell, Tiant et al. became the force reversing this trend, striking out 200 batters more than the AL yearly average over the next 5 years. Smaller, lower strike zone in NL? Different chest protectors for umpires and different umpire vantage point for calling pitches? Perhaps. But smaller AF contributed to a higher-SO NL as well!

Analysis of the difference in later years needs yet to be performed. Specific examples of later changes in ballpark foul area affecting SO might be seen in the differences between yearly SO curve between the AlLand NL. Convergence of the historically separate SO curves of the NL and AL has been identified in the early 90’s, after Comiskey II (’91) and Jacobs Fields (’94) were introduced, as might be expected if 2 of the larger stadiums (Cleveland Municipal and Comiskey) were replaced by smaller stadiums (Figure below). However, 2 of the larger AF in the NL (Mile High and Fulton County) were subsequently replaced by 2 smaller (Turner and Coors) shortly thereafter. This then allowed subsequent divergence of curves even beyond usual historical trends, with continued parallel between SO in the AL and NL according to the previous years.

SO/ 9 Inningsings in the AL and NL, 1947 to 2009. Increase SO in the AL 91-94 when Cleveland Municipal and Comiskey were replaced, narrowed the gap between the leagues:smaller foul area, more AL SO! The gap immediately widened again as Coors and Turner, both with lower AF, were introduced: smaller foul area, more NL SO! Note also that the long-term historical advantage of the NL is broken only from 1964-68.

"Foul ball into the stands!" I thought I heard Indians' announcers Jimmy Dudley and Bob Neal on Cleveland's WERE saying that less than did the Reds' announcers on Cincinnati's WLW when I was a kid!

This off-season starting pitching hasn't been as deep as past years. C.J. Wilson was the top prize, following him you have the likes of Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda and Roy Oswalt.

Buehrle signed with the Miami Marlins and Edwin Jackson is waiting for a monster contract. The last two are probably looking at 1-2 year deals with more than $9 million a year. There's a pitcher who's been just as good the last three seasons and he's much younger than both of these pitchers.

That pitcher is Gavin Floyd of the Chicago White Sox. Since 2009 Floyd has been almost the exact same pitcher as these two:

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Hi all, this is my first post here which is why you have never heard of me. I'll give a little background info to start off. I am an 18 year old senior in HS who has been reading and talking about sabermetrics for two years now. I am a huge baseball and just recently have discovered sabermetrics.

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Two web sites have recently named 2 of the 1964 Indians’ pitching staff the best pitchers not yet in the Hall of Fame. Luis Tiant and Tommy John were members of the Indians’ record-breaking staff that was the first to strike out (SO) more than 1100 / season, and more than 7 / 9 innings. At http://baseballpastandpresent.com/2011/12/11/50-baseball-players-hall-fame-version-2-0/ they were the top 2 pitchers ranked, coming in at positions # 19 and 26.

It must be acknowledged they weren’t teammates very long. In fact, they traded roster spots July 17, 1964, when TJ was sent down to Portland after giving up a 7-run lead in the 1st inning, allowing Kansas City to score 9 runs in the bottom of the 1st!. He was 2-7 after the loss, and sent down for the last time. Luis, who was 15-1 at Portland, was recalled to pitch the 2nd game of a July 19 Sunday doubleheader against Whitey Ford and the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. The result? He shut out the Yankees 3-0 on 4 hits, with 4 BB, and 11 SO. It was my privilege to warm him up in Yankee Stadium before the game! TJ would be recalled at season’s end when rosters were expanded. He would be traded (with Tommy Agee) to Chicago in the off-season for Rocky Colavito in a 3-team swap.

TJ would go on to win 286 games in his career. Luis would win 229, and be the winningest Cuban pitcher of all time. They were coached by Hall of Famer Early Wynn. At Bill James Online, Bill James merely ranked Luis and TJ as among the top six, with no explicit numerical order given. I "Ask(ed) Bill" if their number of future victories might also represent some sort of record for 2 pitchers on the demotion/promotion cycle, but he did not respond. I guess it’s not an interesting enough factoid there, but certainly worthy of posting here!

Darvish's agent tweeted about 30 minutes ago Darvish will be posted Thursday. While he is 26 he would qualify as a rookie this year. I think he's the best of the free agent class of pitchers this year, and while he will cost a premium with the posting system, I do expect him to be signed.

On a totally selfish note, I'm thrilled because I picked up Darvish in early-September for my very deep keeper league and as a rookie Darvish can be stashed on my reserve without any cost for the upcoming season.

I know much has been written about the dangers of banking on Japanese pitching imports. There is probably some truth to the notion that it is more difficult here to pitch on 4 days rest. But I also think the discussion has been warped by the very few imports who have come here -- a sample size that holds no statistical value.

From what I have seen of scouting reports and looking at Darvish's numbers, I expect he'll be a top-20 starter in either the A.L. or the N.L with an upside to break in to the top-10. I also expect the Yankees, Rangers or Red Sox to be the leaders in signing him.

Ron Santo is in the Hall of Fame, and that's awesome. I was updating the Hall of wWAR to reflect this awesome change and it led to something a bit weird. One of my goals for the Hall of wWAR was to have it be the same size as the current Hall of Fame. Why? So if somebody questions the inclusion of someone like Stan Hack in the Hall of Fame, I can just say "Look, there are 206 players in the Hall of Fame. Stan Hack is one of the 206 best players ever."

I don't necessarily think Stan Hack should be in the Hall of Fame. But if the Hall of Fame is already has 206 members and he's one of the 206 best, I'll put him in. The "real" Hall of Fame can't do this, however, because I have the ability to kick people out. If the "real" Hall of Fame added everyone in the Hall of wWAR, suddenly you have 270 players in the Hall rather than 206.

The "problem" is that Santo was already in the Hall of wWAR, but wasn't in the Hall of Fame. So simply changing Santo's status to being a Hall of Famer creates a discrepancy. The Hall of wWAR now has 206 players while the Hall of Fame has 207.

It seems as though I have two options:

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What was the post-WW II staff strikeout (SO) status in the National League (NL)? It was the Brooklyn and Los Angeles Dodgers in the early years. They led the NL in staff SO an unbelievable 16 consecutive years, from 1948-1963! For a variety of reasons, the NL typically led the AL in SO as well.

Since WW II, the AL has led the NL only once in 1956, when Indians’ Herb Score was leading the Tribe and AL …….except for the 1964-68 period! That’s right, not only were the '64-68 Indians’ staff outdistancing the rest of the AL by almost 200 SO/ season, they were helping the AL lead the NL an unprecedented, and still unmatched, 5 consecutive years.

In the NL, during the same 5-year period the Indians led the AL, the Cincinnati Reds broke the Dodgers’ stranglehold on the staff SO title, striking out 1122 batters in 1964 (40 less than the Indians), followed by 1113 in ’65 (43 less than the Tribe), while leading the NL both years. They also led the NL in ’67 with 1065 (124 less than the Indians), while leading the NL in average SO for the 5-year period with 1061 per season…. 93 less than the Indians!

Insofar as the ’72-76 Angels are still in the discussion on the top AL SO staff, how did they fare compared to the NL? The NL leaders averaged 1,008 SO / season from ‘72-76, 16 more than the Angels.

The 2007-11 Red Sox? In the absence of the DH, the NL averaged 7.3 SO/ 9 innings in 2011, compared to 6.9 for the AL overall, despite inter-league play. NL dominance in this statistic continues.

By the metrics defined in the first post in this series, the Indians do stand as the top SO staff in the AL since WW II. Some will point to the modulators and modifiers of performance affecting the comparisons: strike zone, mound height, DH, dead-ball eras, Astro-Turf, relief pitcher use, day/night games, doubleheaders, etc. The Indians’ records were broken in the PED era, whether on the basis of hitters swinging for the fences and SO more frequently, or on the basis of pitchers’ performance being aided by PEDs. I’ve pointed to the fact the Indians accomplished the records pitching in the stadium with the largest foul area, which I’ve shown to correlate with a decrease in SO by hitters, yet to be accurately quantified. The gauntlet’s thrown down for discussion: if not the Indians, then who?

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As the recent posts propose, the Indians staff of 1964-68 has been the top strikeout (SO) staff in the AL since WWII based on individual season SO totals and records. STRIKE ONE! They also were dominant in cumulative and average SO over that 5-year period. STRIKE TWO! Not only do these objective numbers position them uniquely ahead of other staffs, but relative comparisons to the rest of the AL over the same time period, and to notable staffs of later periods, reinforce their position. STRIKE THREE???

In averaging 1155 SO over the 5-year period, the Tribe staff SO more than 200 more batters than the rest of the AL on average (953). This 21.2% differential confirms their staff was not merely riding the crest of a league-wide SO wave. When the California Angels led the AL in SO 8 consecutive years from 1972-79, they averaged 955 per season, striking out over 1,000 only twice, and never striking out more than 1010! However, they did lead the rest of the AL by 26.5% over their best 5-year period (1972-76), suggesting a relative superiority. Of course, this single measure of dominance was hardly a staff accomplishment, when Nolan Ryan himself SO 32.5% of the batters! The Indians’ chief SO star, Sam McDowell, averaged only 21.6% of the Tribe’s SO from ’64-68. The Indians averaged 4 pitchers over 100 SO/year, while the Angels averaged 2.6, emphasizing the preeminence of the Tribe’s staff overall during those years. Once again, it goes without saying that pitching in a stadium with one of the smallest foul areas in the AL certainly contributed to the Angels’ staff totals.

The Indians also averaged 7.08 SO / 9 innings over the ’64-68 period, leading the rest of the AL by more than 1 strikeout / 9 innings, or by 14.8%. Only seven other staffs (Boston 1999-03, 2005-09; Seattle 1994-98; New York 1999-2003; Cleveland 1998-2002; Anaheim 2004-2008; Boston 2007-11) have averaged over 7 strikeouts/ 9 innings for a 5-year period, but none led the AL by more than 1 SO/ 9 innings. The Red Sox have averagedThe Tribe’s advantage over the rest of the AL was 11.5% greater than the 1999-03 Red Sox’ AL lead. The Red Sox have verged 7.5 SO the past 5 seasons, but the the AL has averaged 6.8, indicating high SO numbers achieved in a high-SO era. Once again, the Indians’ held an advantage compared to later staffs by this metric as well. Only the Angels’ ’72-76 18.7% differential keeps anyone else in the discussion on this debate regarding the top SO staff since WW II, or perhaps in AL history.

AL history? So what was happening in the National League during this period the Indians had the upper hand in the AL? Catch the next STRIKE THREE! blog for another unmatched metric of SO superiority!

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As the previous posting pointed out, Indians’ pitching staff of 1964-68 is the only staff in the last 75 years to lead the AL in strikeouts (SO) 5 consecutive years while SO 1100 or more batters/season, and while setting two new AL season SO records along the way. The Tigers led the AL 5 consecutive years 1939-1943, but never setting an AL mark. The Angels actually led the AL 8 consecutive years (1972-9), but never SO more than 1010 in a season.

In addition to single-season marks, the Indians also hold the record for average SO over 3 (1152), 4 (1155), and 5 (1155) consecutive years. Analyzing the data over a 5-year period substantiates the staff’s superior strikeout performance. Studying any shorter period runs the risk that any brief period might introduce a random sampling error, or any other sporadic irregularity, into the analysis. To study any longer period, while not impractical, would not allow realistic comparison to more recent staffs, where free agency virtually guarantees staffs would not stay together sufficiently long to challenge or set records. The fact that Sam McDowell, Luis Tiant, Sonny Siebert, and Steve Hargan were all in the first 5 years of continuous ML service from ’64-68 renders this 5-year period comparable to later staffs that would be subject to modern free agency restrictions. That the Indians actually led the AL in SO 7 of 8 years from 1963 to 1970 will be temporarily set aside, again for later discussion.

This 5-year analysis includes comparisons to AL-leading teams of the PED-era that broke the Indians’ individual single-season record of 1189 in 1967. Seattle (1207 SO in ’97), Cleveland (1213 in ’00), New York (1266 in ’01), Tampa Bay (1194 in ’07), the Yankees (1260 in '09), Boston (1207 in '10), and New York again (1222 in '11) broke the Tribe mark of 1189 while leading the AL. However, all had a lower 5-year average than the Tribe’s 1155 SO. The Boston Red Sox averaged 1161 over a 5-year period (‘99-03), while leading the AL 3 seasons (1131,1157, 1141), However, the Red Sox surpassed the Tribe’s ’67 total of 1189 twice while finishing second to the ’00 Indians and ’01 Yankees, but never setting a single-season record themselves. The Red Sox of the past 5 seasons have averaged 1189 per season, leading the AL twice once again. They, too, have SO over 1100/season, but not leading the Al in doing so. Playing in Fenway Park, with the smallest foul area in the AL, has certainly contributed to Red Sox staff’s SO over the years, where small foul area leads to more foul balls going into the stands and affording more So opportunities. The starting staff has been relatively stable: Lester, Beckett, Wakefield, Matsuzaka, Lackey, Bucholz. The Red Sox of' '07-'11 are indeed in the contention when it comes to the top SO staff in AL history.

Was the Indians staff success merely an aberration of a high-SO era, or were they indeed outdistancing the rest of the AL? Check in for the next post that studies their records compared to the rest of the AL over the '64-68 period.

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