Is Ortiz clutch?

by nhdjinn @ Beyond the Box Score on Sep 7, 2005 10:19 AM EDT

David Ortiz has seemingly come thru time and time again with clutch hitting. I know there has been work done to show that clutch hitting does not really exist. But is Ortiz outlier when it come to this statistical analysis? Is he indeed clutch? My observation say that he demonstated this abilty. I do not have the data to prove it. Can some one look at this?

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Some Situational Stats

Ortiz, on his career:

Bases Empty: .273/.350/.555
Runners On: .289/.379/.503
RISP: .290/.384/.490
RISP w/2 Outs: .275/.390/.517
Bases Loaded: .365/.387/.689

It sure seems like he is, but his stats are relatively stable, except with the bases loaded.

The ultimate measure of "clutch" would probably involve using P-values from win probability situations, setting a threshold for "clutch" v. "unclutch." I can't make a conclusion from that, but the data certainly isn't overwhelmingly in favor of Ortiz' "clutchness."

by Dan Scotto @ Beyond the Box Score on Sep 7, 2005 11:22 AM EDT reply actions

What about

Late and close stats? I know the sample is small, but I'm starting to think if there is such a thing as clutch hitters Ortiz might be it. Then again I like the idea of the hit just happening to come at a certain point.

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Sep 7, 2005 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

It is interesting that

this comes today and not on some random week when Ortiz did not hit a game-winning home run against a struggling right handed pitcher. Before we answer the question: is Ortiz clutch? we need to answer the question: is anyone?

by salb918 on Sep 7, 2005 2:18 PM EDT reply actions

I think that...

with a framework of looking at Ortiz' production based on the P-value of a situation, you could look at a player and decide if he has a real tendency to be more productive in "the clutch." "Clutch" is really about succeeding in critical situations, and P-value is a good way to measure that.

Anyway, it's a ton of work... You need to get play-by-play data from every single game he's played in, quantify various levels of criticality, and then see if there's an overriding trend. A program to get something like this would be ideal.

In terms of recent sabermetric studies, I really liked what Bill James did in terms of trying to quantify "streakiness" by using "batter temperature." But I can't think of something similar for "clutch" except the P-value thing.

by Dan Scotto @ Beyond the Box Score on Sep 7, 2005 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

may be overthinking it

i mean, varying levels of criticality? my god. what if player X proves to be clutch (significantly higher what, BA in critical situations as compared to regular ol' noncritical?) in situations of criticality 3 but not in criticality 6, but then again in criticality 9? is he a clutch player?

i think by overanalyzing it, you might lose all meaning. though it would be cool.

by cephyn on Sep 8, 2005 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Well...

I was thinking just 4 levels, but I'd want to see if any combination would indicate "clutch."

by Dan Scotto @ Beyond the Box Score on Sep 8, 2005 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Ortiz

No it was not a struggling pitcher. I'm not sure that the stats availble would cover his effectivness in these key situations. I'm sure the Yankees would tell you he is clutch. He just seems to rise at these pivital moments. Maybe the stats will not show that on a day to day basis. But just based on observations, when you have a must win situation, no matter who is pitching, he somehow seems to get a big hit. I would argue that a loss last night would have been a devistaing blow. The redsoxs left 16-17 men on base and Wakefield did everything you could ask for from a starter. Ortiz, seized the mnoment to end the game. After so many similar events, one has to ask if their is a trend.

by nhdjinn @ Beyond the Box Score on Sep 7, 2005 3:00 PM EDT reply actions

FWIW

4 big jacks this year to win games and 3 in last year's playoffs. That's 7 jacks. 7 events should be enough to call it a trend no longer just a random events.

by nhdjinn @ Beyond the Box Score on Sep 7, 2005 3:44 PM EDT reply actions

is it?

how many times did he have a chance to do the same thing and fail?

by cephyn on Sep 8, 2005 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

The problem is

I believe "clutch" hitters are those who continue to do exactly what it is they normally do, and in Ortiz's case, that is get hits, sometimes homeruns. There are those who do falter in big situations consistently, but I think there is more of that then guys who rise to the occasion, so to speak. I think keeping the status quo is what we say "clutch" performance is. Like Dan said, its an immense amount of work to disprove or prove anything.

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Sep 7, 2005 4:26 PM EDT reply actions

Believe this, believe that

It will be hard to prove without numbers! But, in the meantime, here is a good article by Cyril from a couple of years back: http://www.geocities.com/cyrilmorong@sbcglobal.net/totalclutch1.htm And be sure to check out Cyril's other articles here: http://www.geocities.com/cyrilmorong@sbcglobal.net/

by salb918 on Sep 7, 2005 8:39 PM EDT reply actions