FanPost

Quantifying Denard Span's second-half surge

Denard Span's narrative this season has followed the tale of two halves. Not too long ago everybody who's anyone was enraged by Matt Williams' decision to keep the left-handed hitting outfielder in the one-hole. I mean, their outrage was justified, as Span compiled a pedestrian 71 wRC+ in April, a slightly above-average 109 wRC+ in May, and an exactly league-average 100 wRC+ in June. Other than April's abysmal total, Span wasn't half-bad the first three months of the 2014 season. Actually, he was better than the average lead-off hitter (players hitting in the one-hole have compiled a 102 wRC+ this season), but with the Washington Nationals' loaded offense, which ranks fourth in wRC+ and fWAR in the National League, the move was, by every definition, a head-scratcher.

No one could devise a substantiated case to keep the 30-year-old batting first, yet that's just what Matt Williams did. Myself, like many other "certified" and well-respected Twitter GMs, expressed our frustration regarding the appalling, borderline negligent decision to continue slotting Span in the one-spot with an offense that includes players such as Anthony Rendon, Adam LaRoche, Jayson Werth, Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman, Wilson Ramos, and Bryce Harper. To show you what I mean, below are first-half season stats compiled by fellow Washington National position players compared to Denard Span.

Denard Span (384 PA): .319 OBP, 97 wRC+

Anthony Rendon (397 PA): .343 OBP, 131 wRC+

Adam LaRoche (321 PA): .383 OBP, 135 wRC+

Jayson Werth (393 PA): .366 OBP, 129 wRC+

Ian Desmond (381 PA): .294 OBP, 102 wRC+

Ryan Zimmerman (200 PA): .340 OBP, 118 wRC+

Wilson Ramos (154 PA): .331 OBP, 106 wRC+

Bryce Harper (137 PA): .316 OBP, 95 wRC+

Now, Ramos, Harper, and Zimmerman did make extended-trips to the disabled list, but still, those numbers should make it obvious: Span had no business batting first for Washington. The criticism was warranted, especially considering his career wRC+ is 105, and that's not even telling the whole story. Span's been declining with age, and has amassed a below-average wRC+ three of his last four seasons, not including this year. So, it wasn't suspect he was putting up mediocre offensive numbers; in fact, it was anticipated.

Williams naturally followed his "managerial-instincts" and kept plugging him in the one-hole, and it has surprisingly worked out well for him to date. Span has churned an impressive .867 OPS the second-half, which is .162 percentage points better than his first-half .705 OPS. Before we can ascribe rookie-manager, Matt Williams, a genius for persistently placing the speedster in the one-spot, let's dig a little deeper. Did Williams really see something in his swing that would suggest looming improvement? Or is this surge the byproduct of a small sample size mirage?

Well, looking at Span's unsustainable .378 BABIP the second half compared to his much more feasible .299 BABIP the first half of the season, one may assume luck has been a major factor in his recent prosperity. However, that's not always the case, and some players do make adjustments that subsequently leads to better contact. Thus, it's imperative we study how Span has made contact in each half of the season.

Here is Span's batted ball data in the first and second half of the season.

First-half: 43.8 GB% (Ground Ball percentage), 32.5 FB% (Fly Ball percentage), 23.7 LD% (Line Drive percentage), 11.0 IFFB (Infield pop-ups)

Second-half: 50.3 GB%, 27.3 FB%, 22.4 LD%, 14.0 IFFB%

Career: 52.6 GB%, 26.1 FB%, 21.3 LD%, 12.0 IFFB%

First and foremost, I referenced his career batted ball percentages to see what player, the one in the first or second half, is closer to the one Span has been in his career. As you can see, his second-half percentages are more similar to his career percentages, but that's not a good thing. The second-half player hits more ground balls, less fly balls, less line drives, and more infield pop-ups than the first-half guy. All of what the second-half Span has done compared to the first-half Span, is counter-productive to making quality contact on the baseball.

So, no, a refined approach at the plate is not evident, as he's making worse contact the second-half. This leaves us with the logical conclusion that Span has been the benefactor of a lot of luck; balls finding holes and gaps more frequently than they did the beginning of the year. Digging in-depth, we see that Denard Span is not an improved baseball player, but a lucky one indeed.

In This FanPost

Teams

Trending Discussions