FanPost

2014 MLB Predictions Using Wins Above Replacement

Background

I started this project because I am pursuing a career in Baseball Operations. The stat WAR (Wins Above Replacement) has always interested me, so I wanted to use it to predict this season’s standings. The WAR predictions for the 2014 season are from Fangraphs.com. They have four different WAR’s for each player, so I found the average of those respective numbers. Each team was broken down into the 8 positions (not including pitcher), 9 for the AL with the DH. The other categories are: Lineup, Bench, Rotation, Bullpen and Team.

When comparing the teams within the respective divisions, I added three more categories comparing each team’s Ace, Closer, and MVP. When these categories were ranked, I assigned points for the rankings. For example, if a team ranked first in a category I assigned 5 points, 4 points for 2nd place, 3 points for 3rd place, 2 points for 4th place, and 1 point for 5th place. The Wild Card winners in each league was decided solely on Team WAR instead of the points because I felt the points were more of reflection on that specific division.

Results (Points next to each team from the rankings)

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox- 62

2. Tampa Bay Rays- 57 (WC)

3. New York Yankees- 52

4. Toronto Blue Jays- 48

5. Baltimore Orioles- 42

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers-63

2. Kansas City Royals-61

3. Cleveland Indians-58

4. Minnesota Twins-40

5. Chicago White Sox-37

AL West

1. Oakland A’s-63

2. Texas Rangers- 54 (WC)

3. Los Angeles Angels-54

4. Seattle Mariners- 52

5. Houston Astros- 35

NL East

1. Washington Nationals- 64

2. Atlanta Braves- 54 (WC)

3. New York Mets- 48

4. Philadelphia Phillies- 46

5. Miami Marlins- 30

NL NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals- 66

2. Pittsburgh Pirates- 52

3. Cincinnati Reds- 46

4. Milwaukee Brewers- 43

5. Chicago Cubs- 32

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers- 63

2. San Francisco Giants- 56 (WC)

3. Arizona Diamondbacks- 49

4. San Diego Padres- 41

5. Colorado Rockies- 38

Playoffs

American League

WC Round- Rays over Rangers

ALDS- Rays over A’s and Red Sox over Tigers

ALCS- Red Sox over Rays

National League

WC Round- Giants over Braves

NLDS- Cardinals over Giants and Dodgers over Nationals

NLCS- Cardinals over Dodgers

World Series- Red Sox over Cardinals

Analysis

In my final analysis a few things stood out to me. First, the Yankees finished in third, missing the postseason. It is the general consensus around baseball that the Yankees will go deep into the postseason with their big-spending offseason. However, according to WAR their big offseason will not be enough to make the playoffs. On a positive note, the Giants making the postseason as a Wild Card stood out to me. There are a number of teams, Giants, Reds, and Pirates to name a few, who could contend for the second Wild Card spot. The division winners all remained true to general consensus throughout baseball.

The third surprise to me is the rematch of the 2013 World Series, with the Red Sox repeating as World Series Champions. While both teams have the talent to get back to the postseason, I think it is more likely the Cardinals get back to the World Series than the Red Sox, but then again it’s that same skepticism that lead the Red Sox to the World Series title in 2013. So here’s to another exciting season of Major League Baseball!

Feel free to comment below or tweet me @carltriano.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Beyond the Box Score

You must be a member of Beyond the Box Score to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Beyond the Box Score. You should read them.

Join Beyond the Box Score

You must be a member of Beyond the Box Score to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Beyond the Box Score. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker