Projecting 2014 Team Records

Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

It's that time of year again. Time to see the projections of where each team will finish.

We'd all like to know the future sometimes. We'd all like to pull a Marty McFly and know how our team will do that year. Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on your point of view, this isn't possible. We just have to wait until the future occurs, which according to Einstein will be ``soon enough."

But it's still nice to have a general idea of what might occur, and that's where the business of projections comes in. Everyone has their projection system. Baseball Prospectus has one. FanGraphs has one. And of course, I have one.

So that's where the rest of this is going. I'll give a little background on what I'm doing here, and then give the results of the projections. And as always, remember what Yogi Berra (Or Neils Bohr) said: ``Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."

So in my predicted standings, I ran 10,000 simulated seasons to see how each team did. In these 10,000, I tried to integrate out as many sources of variability as possible. These sources of variability were 1) Variability in how many runs a team scores/allows, 2) Variability in whether the pitching team or hitting team is responsible for the number of runs scored, and 3) Variability in average runs scored and variance of runs scored. These values were changed throughout the 10,000 simulations around a central expected value.

To get the mean values for the runs scored/allowed, I used a weighted average of ZiPS, Steamer, and my own projections for players adjusted for expected playing time. I won't detail my own projections because that'd take a little while. The probability that the pitching team is responsible for the runs scored is a shade over 50% according to 2013 estimates (50.3% to be exact).

So that's enough explanation. Now onto the actual projected standings. Included are the median wins and minimum/maximum reasonable wins (Defined as the 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles). And as always, remember the words of Yogi.

Division Team Median Wins Minimum Reasonable Wins Maximum Reasonable Wins
AL East Red Sox 88 82 95
AL East Rays 87 81 95
AL East Yankees 82 77 90
AL East Orioles 79 70 85
AL East Blue Jays 78 72 86
Division Team Median Wins Minimum Reasonable Wins Maximum Reasonable Wins
AL Central Tigers 90 85 94
AL Central Indians 84 77 89
AL Central Royals 80 74 85
AL Central White Sox 77 71 84
AL Central Twins 72 67 78
Division Team Median Wins Minimum Reasonable Wins Maximum Reasonable Wins
AL West Oakland 85 80 91
AL West Rangers 82 77 89
AL West Angels 80 74 85
AL West Mariners 76 69 81
AL West Astros 69 61 77
Division Team Median Wins Minimum Reasonable Wins Maximum Reasonable Wins
NL East Nationals 88 84 93
NL East Braves 86 81 92
NL East Phillies 78 73 83
NL East Mets 77 70 84
NL East Marlins 68 60 75
Division Team Median Wins Minimum Reasonable Wins Maximum Reasonable Wins
NL Central Cardinals 87 83 93
NL Central Reds 83 78 88
NL Central Pirates 81 75 88
NL Central Brewers 77 72 81
NL Central Cubs 74 68 79
Division Team Median Wins Minimum Reasonable Wins Maximum Reasonable Wins
NL West Dodgers 89 84 95
NL West Giants 84 79 89
NL West Diamondbacks 80 74 86
NL West Padres 78 71 84
NL West Rockies 75 70 80

So this looks similar to what is seen on Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs, with a few exceptions. My projections like the Angels, Mariners, and Marlins a lot less, while liking the Pirates and Indians a bit more. However, again, things look pretty similar around the projections.

So that's it. Now all that remains is to play out the season. I'll probably get a few of these right, but a bunch wrong (And wrong by a lot), which will just another reminder of how difficult all this is to get right with high precision.

. . .

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Stephen Loftus is an editor at Beyond The Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @stephen__loftus.

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