From My Personal Blog MSilb Baseball Scouting and Analytics
For my previous Pre-2013 Home Run Derby Post, click here.
Running my Predictions on the 2012 Home Run Derby
Partially by analyzing statistics, and mostly by a huge amount of luck, I correctly predicted Yoenis Cespedes to win the 2013 Home Run Derby. My excitement looks like this. So, here is my work, as explained in my previous post. The top table shows the players’ statistics I analyzed, and other info relating to them. HR were chosen from the first half of the season, while all of the other stats were chosen from the entire 2012 season because those were the only stats available to me. The bottom table shows how many points a batter gained or lost per each stat category, then their total overall score. A higher score corresponds to a better finishing position. At the time this was created, there were about 15 minutes until derby time. I decided that these weights had to do, there was no time for tinkering, and I moved on.
I then applied these results to the 2013 Home Run Derby contestants.
Some statistics were based on judgement, pitches taken may be off by a few.
Courtesy of MLB Memes
I picked first and last correctly. Good enough to make me seem somewhat smart. Also, it’s very interesting to see how the differences between Predicted and Actual Place mirror exactly. 0, 4, 1, 3, 3, 1, 4, 0. I’ll look into that. It’s either a huge coincidence, or a sign that I’m onto something.
Courtesy of MLB Memes
I then proceeded to take down statistics for the actual Home Run Derby. For statistics sake, I counted Swings as At-Bats, Balls caught by the Pitch, Hit, & Runkids as "actual outs", Balls taken as walks, Whiffs as Strikeouts, and Total Pitches as Batters Faced. Looking at the numbers,Michael Cuddyer had the highest groundball percentage at 11.43% compared to his regular season number at the time of 20.5%. Interestingly, Robinson Cano had the highest Fly Ball percentage of all participants, but finished last for the second straight year. As expected by his place, his pitcher’s FIP (Or a sloppy representation of it) was the lowest of the eight. Leading to his father being forever solidified in history as being one of the greatest Home Run Derby pitchers of our generation. i’m not entirely sure why I took down all of this data, seeing how insignificant it is, but it exists.
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