Midseason Consensus Top 190 Prospects Update: Hitters

Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have both helped their stock this season - USA TODAY Sports

Checking in on the pre-season consensus prospect list.

It's midseason prospect time, but instead of creating a consensus list from different sites, I'll try something a little different and just update the players who were on the preseason list. Who helped or hurt their status with their statistics? Now I know statistics can be misleading when looking at prospects, but I'm not a scout so this is the best I can do. Using Minor League Central's league-adjusted wOBA numbers and some age adjustments, we can get a more context-appropriate look for players than just simple OPS.

Since most of my prospect research has been on hitters, I will only be looking at them in this post. I may cover pitchers in the future.

Prospects with MLB playing time

This is a list of all the prospects with MLB playing time this season:

Name Rank PA wOBA WAR
Jurickson Profar 1 124 0.299 0
Wil Myers 4 34 0.341 0.1
Mike Zunino 20 30 0.275 0
Anthony Rendon 26 98 0.374 0.8
Mike Olt 27 40 0.206 -0.5
Jackie Bradley Jr. 34 59 0.241 -0.4
Nolan Arenado 53 217 0.319 1.5
Nick Franklin 55 103 0.369 0.8
Oswaldo Arcia 61 154 0.357 0.1
Yasiel Puig 73 82 0.523 1.7
Adam Eaton 89 103 0.355 0.7
Didi Gregorius 113 235 0.339 1.6
Marcell Ozuna 115 198 0.33 2.1
Avisail Garcia 116 132 0.299 -0.3
Adeiny Hechavarria 149 370 0.259 -1
Brett Jackson 155 142 0.292 0.1
Jose Iglesias 157 198 0.35 1.6
Matt Adams 184 181 0.335 0.2

*Current as of 6/25/13

Ozuna is leading the pack so far in overall value, but Puig(in 85 PAs!), Gregorius, Iglesias, and Arenado are right behind him. Profar has not performed extremely well so far, but has not had consistent playing time and is only 20 years old.

Top Prospects in the Minor Leagues

Next, how have the prospects performed in the minor leagues? This is where the age adjustment and league averages come into play. Finally, based on my previous work with walk and strikeout rate, I added a percent likelihood of a player becoming a bust or productive. A wOBA of 0.330 is league average, so use that number when determining how well these players have done. Keep in mind these numbers only represent at most half a season from a minor league player.

Single-A

Midwest League

Name Organization Rank Age PA Adj wOBA Bust% Prod%
Jonathan Singleton Astros 29 21.75 25 0.530 51% 26%
Byron Buxton Twins 17 19.50 321 0.522 30% 35%
Albert Almora Cubs 30 19.17 116 0.468 76% 12%
Carlos Correa Astros 22 18.75 271 0.462 30% 35%
Corey Seager Dodgers 96 19.17 166 0.440 60% 19%
Jesse Winker Reds 180 19.83 274 0.432 30% 35%
Max Kepler Twins 142 20.33 20 0.381 51% 26%
Daniel Vogelbach Cubs 129 20.50 308 0.377 47% 20%
Jeimer Candelario Cubs 165 19.58 295 0.372 30% 35%
Patrick Wisdom Cardinals 173 21.83 290 0.369 50% 33%
Dorssys Paulino Indians 90 18.58 263 0.351 76% 12%
Clint Coulter Brewers 175 19.92 135 0.343 60% 19%
Victor Roache Brewers 178 21.75 228 0.318 77% 13%

Byron Buxton leads the league after removing Singleton since he only had 25 PAs this season after coming back from suspension. Almora and Paulino are keeping their strikeouts down, but aren't walking enough. Roache is striking out too much.

South Atlantic League

Name Organization Rank Age PA Adj wOBA Bust% Prod%
Joey Gallo Rangers 132 19.58 311 0.436 50% 33%
Josh Bell Pirates 123 20.83 301 0.417 47% 20%
Lewis Brinson Rangers 108 19.08 290 0.400 50% 33%
Jorge Alfaro Rangers 104 20.00 282 0.386 64% 14%
Adalberto Mondesi Royals 105 17.92 278 0.368 64% 14%
David Dahl Rockies 42 19.17 42 0.362 76% 12%
Barrett Barnes Pirates 183 21.92 107 0.345 64% 14%
Roman Quinn Phillies 164 20.08 298 0.333 60% 19%
Bubba Starling Royals 56 20.83 262 0.322 77% 13%
Miguel Almonte Royals 159 20.17 2 0.000 71% 14%

Alfaro, Mondesi, Dahl, and Barnes all have low walk rates. Starling is striking out too much and his walk rate is not high enough to counteract that. His overall wOBA is below league average, even after an age adjustment.

High-A

California League

Name Organization Rank Age PA Adj wOBA Bust% Prod%
Addison Russell Athletics 33 19.42 281 0.432 51% 26%
Delino DeShields Astros 88 20.83 259 0.389 30% 35%
Austin Hedges Padres 50 20.83 149 0.379 30% 35%
Trevor Story Rockies 59 20.58 293 0.313 77% 13%
Stefen Romero Mariners 186 24.67 21 0.307 47% 20%
Adam Eaton Diamondbacks 89 24.50 30 0.272 76% 12%

Russell jumped up prospect boards after a great pro debut in 2012 and has not slowed down this year. Expect a promotion to AA at some point. Story's...story is similar in that he had huge numbers in A-ball, but so far has an extremely high strikeout rate and is only walking at an average pace in High-A.

Carolina League

Name Organization Rank Age PA Adj wOBA Bust% Prod%
Garin Cecchini Red Sox 133 22.17 262 0.492 30% 35%
Rougned Odor Rangers 176 19.33 291 0.461 76% 12%
Jorge Bonifacio Royals 172 20.00 146 0.459 30% 35%
Francisco Lindor Indians 16 19.58 306 0.434 30% 35%
Cheslor Cuthbert Royals 169 20.58 254 0.419 30% 35%
Blake Swihart Red Sox 140 21.17 216 0.399 30% 35%
Courtney Hawkins White Sox 71 19.58 173 0.369 77% 13%
Luis Sardinas Rangers 114 20.08 296 0.368 76% 12%

Cecchini was tearing up the High-A and has been promoted to AA. Odor and Sardinas have good strikeout rates, but struggle taking a walk. Hawkins strikes out nearly twice the league average and rarely walks. He still has a lot of work to do, even though his overall offensive totals look good.

Florida State League

Name Organization Rank Age PA Adj wOBA Bust% Prod%
Avisail Garcia Tigers 116 22.00 28 0.561 30% 35%
Miguel Sano Twins 15 20.08 243 0.555 51% 26%
Adeiny Hechavarria Marlins 149 24.17 9 0.495 30% 35%
Maikel Franco Phillies 141 20.83 289 0.473 47% 20%
Javier Baez Cubs 18 20.50 303 0.457 64% 14%
Eddie Rosario Twins 119 21.75 231 0.441 47% 20%
Gregory Polanco Pirates 54 21.75 241 0.440 47% 20%
Alen Hanson Pirates 52 20.67 300 0.426 30% 35%
Gary Sanchez Yankees 35 20.50 272 0.411 30% 35%
Jorge Soler Cubs 35 21.33 236 0.398 30% 35%
Drew Vettleson Rays 166 21.92 277 0.359 76% 12%
Richie Shaffer Rays 184 22.25 266 0.330 64% 14%
Mason Williams Yankees 40 21.83 294 0.330 30% 35%
Jake Marisnick Marlins 63 22.25 15 0.288 76% 12%
Marcell Ozuna Marlins 115 22.58 15 0.282 71% 14%
Christian Yelich Marlins 11 21.50 4 0.252 71% 14%

Baez has some really good offensive numbers, but he will need to start walking a bit more. Vettleson and Shaffer have low walk totals as well.

Double-A

Eastern League

Name Organization Rank Age PA Adj wOBA Bust% Prod%
Maikel Franco Phillies 141 20.83 22 0.771 76% 12%
Xander Bogaerts Red Sox 9 20.67 259 0.510 30% 35%
Anthony Rendon Nationals 26 23.00 152 0.506 30% 35%
Garin Cecchini Red Sox 133 22.17 19 0.476 51% 26%
Gregory Polanco Pirates 54 21.75 35 0.444 47% 20%
Matthew Skole Nationals 188 23.92 7 0.405 50% 33%
Ronny Rodriguez Indians 157 21.17 292 0.403 76% 12%
Tyler Austin Yankees 82 21.75 301 0.403 51% 26%
Brian Goodwin Nationals 58 22.58 327 0.391 51% 26%
Eddie Rosario Twins 119 21.75 50 0.389 51% 26%
Miguel Sano Twins 15 20.08 51 0.346 51% 26%
Slade Heathcott Yankees 85 22.75 280 0.346 60% 19%

A lot of these players are recent call-ups to AA and haven't played long enough to stabilize their numbers. Bogaerts and Rendon were the top performers and both have been promoted (Bogaerts to AAA and Rendon to MLB). Rodriguez has a high bust probability because of his extremely low walk totals.

Southern League

Name Organization Rank Age PA Adj wOBA Bust% Prod%
Marcell Ozuna Marlins 115 22.58 47 0.541 64% 14%
Yasiel Puig Dodgers 73 22.50 167 0.495 47% 20%
Joc Pederson Dodgers 121 21.17 313 0.459 51% 26%
Christian Yelich Marlins 11 21.50 187 0.444 51% 26%
Jake Marisnick Marlins 63 22.25 199 0.440 64% 14%
Trayce Thompson White Sox 145 22.25 322 0.426 51% 26%
Edward Salcedo Braves 181 21.92 287 0.425 60% 19%
Brad Miller Mariners 136 23.67 175 0.417 30% 35%
Christian Bethancourt Braves 117 21.75 177 0.327 64% 14%
Jacob Realmuto Marlins 146 22.25 246 0.324 60% 19%

Puig had the best offensive output in the Southern League, and I don't have to tell you again how well he is doing in the majors. Neither Marisnick nor Bethancourt have walked enough this year.

Texas League

Name Organization Rank Age PA Adj wOBA Bust% Prod%
Jonathan Singleton Astros 29 21.75 48 0.477 50% 33%
George Springer Astros 46 23.75 323 0.464 50% 33%
Mike Olt Rangers 27 24.83 12 0.456 71% 14%
Kyle Parker Rockies 152 23.75 261 0.383 47% 20%
Kaleb Cowart Angels 48 21.00 300 0.330 51% 26%
Matt Adams Cardinals 184 24.83 12 0.258 71% 14%
Cheslor Cuthbert Royals 169 20.58 41 0.203 76% 12%

Springer was named MVP of the AA All-Star game and was recently promoted to AAA. Cowart has had a rough go of it in his first taste of AA, but the age adjustments do push him up to league average.

Triple-A

International League

Name Organization Rank Age PA Adj wOBA Bust% Prod%
Hak-Ju Lee Rays 76 22.58 57 0.642 30% 35%
Avisail Garcia Tigers 116 22 51 0.596 64% 14%
Oswaldo Arcia Twins 61 22.08 108 0.515 51% 26%
Jackie Bradley Jr. Red Sox 34 23.17 157 0.499 30% 35%
Nick Castellanos Tigers 25 21.25 351 0.497 30% 35%
Wil Myers Rays 4 22.5 289 0.481 51% 26%
Jonathan Schoop Orioles 93 21.67 139 0.437 47% 20%
Xander Bogaerts Red Sox 9 20.67 48 0.422 30% 35%
Anthony Rendon Nationals 26 23 14 0.373 51% 26%
Billy Hamilton Reds 23 22.75 326 0.352 47% 20%
Jose Iglesias Red Sox 157 23.42 133 0.320 76% 12%

Lee was off to a boiling start before going down for the season with a knee injury. Bradley started off the season in the majors and has shown he is ready to return. Only Iglesias hurt his stock with minor league play, but he now has a 0.458 wOBA this season in the major leagues.

Pacific Coast League

Name Organization Rank Age PA Adj wOBA Bust% Prod%
Nolan Arenado Rockies 53 22.17 75 0.518 47% 20%
Didi Gregorius Diamondbacks 113 23.33 33 0.499 76% 12%
Brad Miller Mariners 136 23.67 114 0.484 30% 35%
Chris Owings Diamondbacks 120 21.83 358 0.477 76% 12%
Nick Franklin Mariners 55 22.25 177 0.472 30% 35%
Jurickson Profar Rangers 1 20.33 166 0.470 30% 35%
Wilmer Flores Mets 149 21.83 322 0.449 76% 12%
Jonathan Singleton Astros 29 21.75 42 0.448 50% 33%
Travis d'Arnaud Mets 12 24.33 49 0.447 30% 35%
Oscar Taveras Cardinals 2 21 186 0.432 76% 12%
Kolten Wong Cardinals 65 22.67 300 0.427 47% 20%
Matt Davidson Diamondbacks 81 22.25 315 0.427 60% 19%
Mike Zunino Mariners 20 22.25 208 0.420 77% 13%
Michael Choice Athletics 111 23.58 335 0.416 51% 26%
Jonathan Villar Astros 189 22.08 316 0.380 60% 19%
Stefen Romero Mariners 186 24.67 224 0.372 64% 14%
Gary Brown Giants 103 24.75 343 0.328 64% 14%
Brett Jackson Cubs 155 24.83 242 0.313 77% 13%
Adam Eaton Diamondbacks 89 24.5 36 0.210 60% 19%

A lot of these players have major league playing time or will by the end of this season. Most of the players labeled with high bust rates have them because of their low walk totals, with Zunino and Jackson the lone exceptions. Their walk rates are acceptable, but not high enough to account for their high strikeouts. Taveras has not been walking enough this season, but he has been on and off the disabled list with an ankle injury.

Summary

How 'bout them Twins? Buxton, Sano, Rosario, and Arcia have all taken a huge step forward. If I look at only players with enough PAs to qualify and good K/BB rates, here are the top 10 this year:

Name Organization Rank Age Level Adj wOBA Bust% Prod%
Miguel Sano Twins 15 20.08 A+ 0.555 51% 26%
Byron Buxton Twins 17 19.5 A 0.522 30% 35%
Xander Bogaerts Red Sox 9 20.67 AA 0.510 30% 35%
Nick Castellanos Tigers 25 21.25 AAA 0.497 30% 35%
Garin Cecchini Red Sox 133 22.17 A+ 0.492 30% 35%
Wil Myers Rays 4 22.5 AAA 0.481 51% 26%
Maikel Franco Phillies 141 20.83 A+ 0.473 47% 20%
George Springer Astros 46 23.75 AA 0.464 50% 33%
Carlos Correa Astros 22 18.75 A 0.462 30% 35%
Joc Pederson Dodgers 121 21.17 AA 0.459 51% 26%

Now it all can't be rainbows and unicorns, here are some players who have hurt their status with the bat this year:

Name Organization Rank Age Level Adj wOBA Bust% Prod%
Trevor Story Rockies 59 20.58 A+ 0.313 77% 13%
Victor Roache Brewers 178 21.75 A 0.318 77% 13%
Bubba Starling Royals 56 20.83 A 0.322 77% 13%
Jacob Realmuto Marlins 146 22.25 AA 0.324 60% 19%
Gary Brown Giants 103 24.75 AAA 0.328 64% 14%
Kaleb Cowart Angels 48 21 AA 0.330 51% 26%
Mason Williams Yankees 40 21.83 A+ 0.330 30% 35%
Richie Shaffer Rays 184 22.25 A+ 0.330 64% 14%
Roman Quinn Phillies 164 20.08 A 0.333 60% 19%
Slade Heathcott Yankees 85 22.75 AA 0.346 60% 19%

Without a second-half revival, expect to see some of these guys drop in the rankings or even off lists altogether.

This was a brief look at the pre-season prospects, next I will cover those players who did not appear on a list but have been performing well in the minors.

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