Taking a Look at 2013 Pre-Season Prospect Rankings

Yasiel Puig had the most varied spots in prospect rankings this year. - Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

Commenters always complain about their favorite player missing from a prospect list or being ranked too low. How does this actually stack up when comparing different lists?

What follows is a thorough analysis of my consensus top 190 prospects. I have done this in 2011 and 2012 and have always received extremely positive reviews of it, so here were are for a third time!

Lists

2080 (Bradley Ankrom)

Baseball America

Baseball Prospect Nation

Baseball Prospectus

Bullpen Banter

ESPN (Keith Law)

Fangraphs (Marc Hulet)

Major League Baseball (Jonathan Mayo)

Minor League Ball (John Sickels)

Project Prospect

Prospect 361 (Rich Wilson)

Scout

Definitions

Likes: The list places a prospect at least two standard deviations below the consensus ranking. A prospect must be on at least five lists to qualify.

Dislikes: The list places a prospect at least two standard deviations above the consensus ranking. A prospect must be on at least five lists to qualify.

Surprising Inclusion: The list includes a prospect ranked better than 80 which is only included on at most four lists.

Surprising Exclusion: The list does not include a prospect that is ranked anywhere on at least eight other lists. For Project Prospect this includes players only in the top 50 consensus. For Baseball Prospect Nation and John Sickels, this includes only their top 100 ranked players.

Consensus Rank: To determine overall rank, I gave each player a certain total depending where he was ranked on each list. a #1 ranking equals 100 points and a 100 ranking equals 1 point. These are all added together and the prospect with the highest total is ranked first.

2080 BA BB BP BPN ESPN FG MiLB MLB P361 PP SC
Likes 1 1 4 2 5 9 4 2 2 6 1 7
Dislikes 3 4 6 5 8 6 1 7 1 1 4 6
Inclusions 2 5 1 2 4 1 1 4 2 3 0 4
Exclusions 3 3 7 4 1 5 3 0 3 7 0 5
All Excursions 9 13 18 13 18 21 9 13 8 17 5 22

2080 (Bradley Ankrom)

Ranking philosophy: "Favor upside over probability, but heavily consider probability when ranking, maybe more than some others."

Likes:

Name 2080 Con. Rank SD
Jarred Cosart 77 100 5.69

Dislikes:

Name 2080 Con. Rank SD
Wil Myers 10 4 -4.41
Mason Williams 78 40 -3.31
Miguel Sano 30 15 -2.72

Surprising Inclusions:

Name 2080 Lists
Gary Brown 73 4
Lewis Brinson 80 4

Surprising Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Luis Heredia 84 8
J.R. Graham 87 8
A.J. Cole 92 8

Baseball America

Ranking philosophy: "Seven people contributed to the voting this year. Each person compiled a personal top 150, and we reviewed the composite numbers and made adjustments before locking down the final list. The consensus shows us who has the broadest base of support, and gives us a great starting point for the final list. The most important part of the Top 100 meeting is an examination of players risk factors. The weaknesses that could undo players, rather than their strengths -- not enough power for a corner spot, for example -- and look at best and worst case players for each factor. We look at those factors when we're making adjustments to the list and deciding which players to put in the final few spots."

Likes:

Name BA Con. Rank SD
Andrew Heaney 43 99 2.62

Dislikes:

Name BA Con. Rank SD
Taijuan Walker 18 7 -2.07
Jameson Taillon 19 10 -2.05
Gary Sanchez 57 35 -2.04
Aaron Sanchez 65 37 -2.03

Surprising Inclusions:

Name BA Lists
Hyun-Jin Ryu 42 1
Lance McCullers 50 3
Avisail Garcia 74 2
Marcell Ozuna 75 2
Didi Gregorius 80 3

Surprising Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Rymer Liriano 70 8
Zach Lee 86 8
A.J. Cole 92 8

Baseball Prospect Nation

Likes:

Name BPN Con. Rank SD
Leonys Martin 61 101 3.07
J.R. Graham 28 87 2.68
Lucas Giolito 14 69 2.45
A.J. Cole 74 92 2.19
Bruce Rondon 85 102 2.10

Dislikes:

Name BPN Con. Rank SD
Brian Goodwin 117 58 -4.29
Kolten Wong 137 65 -4.13
Jake Odorizzi 150 68 -4.05
Matt Davidson 136 81 -3.85
Dylan Bundy 5 2 -2.68
Travis d'Arnaud 31 12 -2.65
Addison Russell 69 33 -2.34
Hak-Ju Lee 133 76 -2.01

Surprising Inclusions:

Name BPN Lists
Adalberto Mondesi 53 3
Jorge Alfaro 55 4
Tyler Thornburg 73 4
Michael Choice 79 3

Surprising Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Tyler Austin 82 8

Baseball Prospectus

Ranking Philosophy: "With countless emails, calls, texts, IMs, letters, and Candygrams exchanged between members of the BP team and members of the baseball industry, we played prospect Nostradamus, spelunking for information like we had never spelunked before. It was a stressful time, but also one of the most rewarding of my career, a daily debate about prospects that consumed all available energy and intellect."

Likes:

Name BP Con. Rank SD
Arodys Vizcaino 54 98 2.99
Luis Heredia 53 84 2.78

Dislikes:

Name BP Con. Rank SD
Christian Yelich 23 11 -2.44
Wil Myers 7 4 -2.20
Jedd Gyorko 84 49 -2.08
Alex Meyer 88 60 -2.00
Robert Stephenson 78 51 -2.00

Surprising Inclusions:

Name BP Lists
Adalberto Mondesi 58 3
Jorge Alfaro 76 4

Surprising Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Courtney Hawkins 71 10
Tyler Austin 82 8
Slade Heathcott 85 8
A.J. Cole 92 8

Bullpen Banter

Ranking Philosophy: "We are attempting to project the top 100 future major league players out of a vast pool of incomplete players whose skill level is always in flux. A player's "stock" can go through wild fluctuations throughout a season, and I would venture to say that it's rare to find a legitimate prospect that doesn't go through such an ebb and flow."

Likes:

Name BB Con. Rank SD
Roberto Osuna 70 95 3.00
Luis Heredia 56 84 2.51
Tyler Austin 60 82 2.21
Leonys Martin 74 101 2.07

Dislikes:

Name BB Con. Rank SD
Oscar Taveras 8 2 -3.15
Billy Hamilton 55 23 -2.46
Miguel Sano 28 15 -2.36
Carlos Martinez 47 32 -2.10
Christian Yelich 21 11 -2.03
Trevor Bauer 38 19 -2.01

Surprising Inclusions:

Name BB Lists
Joe Ross 54 3

Surprising Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Rymer Liriano 70 8
Yasiel Puig 73 9
Hak-Ju Lee 76 8
Jesse Biddle 78 10
Tony Cingrani 80 10
Matt Davidson 81 8
J.R. Graham 87 8

ESPN (Keith Law)

Ranking Philosophy: "When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you."

Likes:

Name ESPN Con. Rank SD
Jarred Cosart 86 100 3.46
Tyler Austin 52 82 3.02
Jonathan Schoop 50 93 2.99
Kyle Gibson 41 77 2.58
Slade Heathcott 57 85 2.53
Corey Seager 46 96 2.33
Arodys Vizcaino 64 98 2.31
Dorssys Paulino 56 90 2.24
Daniel Corcino 72 91 2.02

Dislikes:

Name ESPN Con. Rank SD
Mike Olt 71 27 -2.85
Javier Baez 31 18 -2.83
Matt Barnes 79 38 -2.56
Noah Syndergaard 97 45 -2.43
Jameson Taillon 20 10 -2.28
Jose Fernandez 16 6 -2.11

Surprising Inclusions:

Name ESPN Lists
Eddie Rosario 65 2

Surprising Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Nolan Arenado 53 10
Michael Wacha 72 9
Yasiel Puig 73 9
James Paxton 75 9
Yordano Ventura 83 9

Fangraphs (Marc Hulet)

Ranking Philosophy: "I talk to multiple contacts within the industry (mostly scouts and front office staff) when creating my Top 15 prospects and Top 100 lists. Along with insider information, I also utilize my own opinions based on live game observations and video."

Likes:

Name FG Con. Rank SD
Jonathan Schoop 57 93 2.50
Delino DeShields Jr. 52 88 2.22
Julio Teheran 19 39 2.16
Daniel Corcino 71 91 2.13

Dislikes:

Name FG Con. Rank SD
Albert Almora 51 30 -2.10

Surprising Inclusions:

Name FG Lists
Carlos Sanchez 64 1

Surprising Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
James Paxton 75 9
Wily Peralta 79 10
Tyler Austin 82 8

Major League Baseball (Jonathan Mayo)

Ranking Philosophy: "Each scout was asked to anonymously provide his own top 50. An AP poll-type format was used. If, say, a scout put Profar in the top spot, he would get 50 points; the second prospect gets 49 points, and so on, down to one point for the 50th prospect on each list."

Likes:

Name MLB Con. Rank SD
Jarred Cosart 89 100 2.72
Kyle Gibson 49 77 2.01

Dislikes:

Name MLB Con. Rank SD
Kyle Crick 86 57 -2.33

Surprising Inclusions:

Name MLB Lists
Didi Gregorius 63 3
Ethan Martin 80 1

Surprising Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Luis Heredia 84 8
Slade Heathcott 85 8
J.R. Graham 87 8

Minor League Ball (John Sickels)

Ranking Philosophy: "It is meant to be useful for both general baseball purposes and fantasy owners. As a result, it presents a balance between long-term upside and present ability. I tend to favor players who are closer to the majors than those who are far away."

Likes:

Name MiLB Con. Rank SD
Tyler Austin 58 82 2.41
Roberto Osuna 75 95 2.40

Dislikes:

Name MiLB Con. Rank SD
Jonathan Singleton 57 29 -2.70
Nick Castellanos 67 25 -2.57
David Dahl 69 42 -2.40
Taijuan Walker 19 7 -2.26
Wil Myers 7 4 -2.20
Mason Williams 64 40 -2.09
George Springer 72 46 -2.04

Surprising Inclusions:

Name MiLB Lists
Brad Miller 48 1
Lance McCullers 66 3
Chris Stratton 73 4
Eddie Rosario 79 2

Surprising Exclusions: None

Project Prospect

Likes:

Name PP Con. Rank SD
Adam Eaton 38 89 2.13

Dislikes:

Name PP Con. Rank SD
Jurickson Profar 3 1 -2.97
Tyler Skaggs 25 13 -2.35
Gerrit Cole 10 5 -2.13
Albert Almora 50 30 -2.00

Surprising Inclusions: None

Surprising Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Julio Teheran 39 11
Noah Syndergaard 45 11
Max Fried 47 11
Kaleb Cowart 48 11

Prospect 361 (Rich Wilson)

Likes:

Name P361 Con. Rank SD
Bruce Rondon 78 102 2.96
Tyler Austin 53 82 2.92
Dan Straily 62 94 2.46
Clayton Blackburn 64 97 2.44
Jonathan Schoop 63 93 2.08
Gregory Polanco 34 54 2.08

Dislikes:

Name P361 Con. Rank SD
Kyle Zimmer 49 28 -2.11

Surprising Inclusions:

Name P361 Lists
D.J. Davis 75 1
Marcell Ozuna 79 2
Jacob Realmuto 80 1

Surprising Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Chris Archer 44 11
Nick Franklin 55 11
Casey Kelly 64 10
Kyle Gibson 77 9
Yordano Ventura 83 9
Luis Heredia 84 8
Zach Lee 86 8

Scout

Likes:

Name SC Con. Rank SD
Jarred Cosart 85 100 3.71
Clayton Blackburn 63 97 2.51
Zach Lee 52 86 2.42
Hak-Ju Lee 23 76 2.22
Matt Davidson 50 81 2.17
Dan Straily 66 94 2.16
Tyler Austin 62 82 2.01

Dislikes:

Name SC Con. Rank SD
Jose Fernandez 21 6 -3.17
Byron Buxton 53 17 -2.81
Taylor Guerrieri 71 41 -2.72
Jorge Soler 67 35 -2.38
Xander Bogaerts 27 9 -2.36
Zack Wheeler 17 8 -2.26

Surprising Inclusions:

Name SC Lists
Christian Bethancourt 65 3
Michael Choice 72 3
Gary Brown 76 4
Tyler Thornburg 79 4

Surprising Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Austin Hedges 50 10
Gregory Polanco 54 10
Allen Webster 67 10
Lucas Giolito 69 9
Kyle Gibson 77 9
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