Sabersphere 2/21: Individual Stolen Base Break-evens, Prediction vs. Projection, PECOTA talk

Otto Greule Jr

Today's Sabersphere brings you individual stolen base break-even rates, the difference between prediction and projection, and a talk about PECOTA.

How is everyone today? I won't waste your time too much, but it was a busy day both in the Sabersphere and at Beyond the Box Score yesterday. Let's take a look at what went down.

Previously on Beyond the Box Score

Matt Hunter took the time to figure out the stolen base break-even rates for each individual player in baseball. It is a great, in-depth read, which will surely be fun to reference throughout the season. It even includes the numbers for 0, 1, and 2 outs: Individual Stolen Base Break-even Rates (Part 1) - Beyond the Box Score

Lee Trocinski looked at what effects velocity and vertical movement had on groundball rates for pitchers. It is interesting as it explores some commonly-accepted conceptions in regards to what creates a groundball pitcher. I'd like to see this in relationship with height, as that is another trait commonly-attributed to groundball pitchers. The Effect of Velocity and Vertical Movement on GB% - Beyond the Box Score

Blake Murphy talks to Jonah Keri on the BtB Podcast, which is an awesome listen as always: BTB Podcast #41 - Jonah Keri Talks Sloan, Over/Unders, Impact Prospects & More - Beyond the Box Score

Around the Sabersphere

Dave Cameron talks about the differences between a prediction and a projection. This reminds me of the debate during the election regarding Nate Silver's projections for the election. There is a distinct difference between predicting and projecting something, and Cameron does a good job of explaining that. The Differences Between Predictions and Projections | FanGraphs Baseball

Over at Baseball Prospectus they publish a conversation about some of PECOTA's more daring projections: Baseball Prospectus | The Socratic Approach to PECOTA

Glenn DuPaul at The Hardball Times does some excellent work regarding his pFIP metric and other pitching metrics. It is scary how the equation that he comes up with was effectively predicted before the numbers were even run. More on standard deviation and ERA estimators | The Hardball Times

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