Here's Thursday's edition of daily sabermetric links from around the internet:
BP's lineup of writers lists of their nine biggest All-Star snubs. Bradford Doolittle's pick by itself makes this list worth your time: Baseball Prospectus | The Lineup Card: Nine All-Star Snubs
Shane Tourtellotte looked into just how minimal the chance of pitching a perfect game truly is: The peak of perfection-The Hardball Times
There are only three pitchers showing a better than 1 percent chance to throw a perfect game the season they did it: Addie Joss, Sandy Koufax, and Randy Johnson. (Matt Cain might get there with a hot second half and/or some playoff starts.) Koufax's number exceeds the rest through a convergence of factors: he had a great season with a lot of starts in a historically low run environment. Randy Johnson had a better ERA+ in his perfect-game year than Koufax (176 vs. 160), but he was pitching in a five-man rotation at the tail end of an offensive explosion. Joss' ERA+ outstripped both, and he pitched deep in a deadball era, but a higher error rate depressed his chances.
Tom Ruane researched odd pitching wins scoring decisions from the past. It's a fairly interesting piece, especially because Cliff Lee continues to cause us to read and think about pitching wins: Old-Tyme Pitching Decisions (the 1916-1949 edition)
For the most part, wins and losses are pretty straightforward and understandable. If you were the last pitcher on the mound for your team when they take the lead for good, you get the win. If you are charged with the last go-ahead run, you lose. Oh, things can get complicated if the first pitcher for the winning team fails to last five innings, but even then, the situation is almost always pretty clear-cut...It wasn't always that way. There was a time when the rules weren't so straightforward, when official scorers (and sometimes even league presidents) could be creative in their choices of winners and losers. Or could they?
Jack Moore of Fangraphs.com discusses why Tom Wilhelmsen's fastball has made the "Bartender" so dominant this season: Tom Wilhelmsen Thrives With Fastball | FanGraphs Baseball
Tom Wilhelmsen converted his seventh save of the season Monday night against the Orioles, tossing a scoreless ninth inning. The appearance marked his 16th straight without allowing an earned run, a span encompassing 19.2 innings pitched...Wilhelmsen brandishes a three-pitch arsenal, using a curve and change along with his fastball. But it’s the fastball — averaging 95.8 MPH, 14th fastest among relievers — that defines his success.