The Cape Cod Baseball League is the most prestigious and competitive college summer league in the country. This year, I've had opportunity to spend the summer on the cape; interning with the league. I haven't had the opportunity to do much sabermetrically for the league, but luckily this outlet has given me the chance to share some of the statistics that I have run.
It's fairly difficult to base any player analysis solely on their time on the cape. The regular season only lasts 44 games, and most of the top players are unable to play the entire season, because of collegiate postseason play; thus, the sample size for numbers is very small.
Also, while PointStreak, the statistics site that the CCBL employs, is reporting more stats than ever before, they don't have the bank of numbers that FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference have spoiled us with. Park factors throw a wrench in any analysis, as well, because they aren't useful when a park is only being used for 22 home games, per season.
The main issue is that numbers don't matter that much (if at all), at this level. Considering the fact that minor league numbers (and the minors are obviously much closer to the bigs than the cape) mean very little and that cape statistics are nowhere close to as important as a player's tools or how a player's development projects. Any sabermetric analysis of an individual cape player does not hold much weight.
I am in no way, shape or form a scout and can't analyze a cape leaguer in the same way as one. My main tool in the analysis of baseball has never been my eyes, but instead an excel spreadsheet.
For this reason, I decided to (while it may not be extremely useful) run some sabermetric statistics for the top players on Cape Cod. The Cape League All-Star Game was played on Saturday. I analyzed the two rosters of the best players at the cape, this summer.
For those who know little of just how talented the CCBL all-stars are, I'll provide some reference. In recent years, Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, MVP winner Ryan Braun, and MLB all-stars, Evan Longoria, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Wieters all played in the CCBL All-Star game. Those are just the names of the most recent and successful players, many more major leaguers have played in the game (as well as on the cape).
The likelihood is high that one of the 2012 CCBL all-stars will be an MLB all-star, in the future. Sabermetrics do a good job of telling us who has been incredible on the Cape this year, and possibly give us some insight into which players have serious potential to make it at the next level.
PointStreak does provide some sabermetric statistics. For batters, they calculate secondary average, ISO power and runs created. For pitchers, they calculate power finesse ratio, first pitch strike percentage, BABIP and component ERA (ERC).
Some of those sabermetric statistics are very useful, while others are slightly outdated. Thus, I decided to calculate two other statistics for the hitters and pitchers who performed in the All-Star game.
For hitters, I calculated wOBA (weighted on-base average) using the 2011 MLB formula provided by FanGraphs. I also calculated a league-adjusted OPS+. Unfortunately, I could not adjust OPS+ by park, because park adjustments in the CCBL make very little sense.
For pitchers, I utilized the work of Tom Tango, calculating both the FIP (using 3.2 as the constant) and kwERA.
Batting All-Stars:
East Division:
Player |
School |
Cape Team |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
HR |
SB |
BB/K |
wOBA |
OPS+ |
C. Jake Hernandez |
USC |
Orleans |
.284 |
.348 |
.506 |
5 |
0 |
0.21 |
0.377 |
130 |
1B. Conrad Gregor |
Vanderbilt |
Orleans |
.325 |
.467 |
.556 |
7 |
7 |
0.94 |
0.444 |
177 |
2B. Zak Blair |
Mercyhurst |
Y-D |
.370 |
.443 |
.455 |
2 |
6 |
1.55 |
0.397 |
144 |
SS.Alex Blandino |
Stanford |
Y-D |
.299 |
.389 |
.449 |
3 |
1 |
0.34 |
0.389 |
127 |
3B. Ryon Healy |
Oregon |
Brewster |
.372 |
.415 |
.640 |
4 |
1 |
0.21 |
0.447 |
183 |
LF. Sam Travis |
Indiana |
Y-D |
.370 |
.444 |
.536 |
4 |
4 |
0.65 |
0.429 |
165 |
CF. Tanner Mathis |
Mississippi |
Y-D |
.327 |
.375 |
.391 |
0 |
9 |
0.33 |
0.337 |
108 |
RF. Phillip Ervin |
Samford |
Harwich |
.333 |
.448 |
.658 |
10 |
9 |
0.62 |
0.491 |
197 |
DH. Robert Pehl |
Washington |
Y-D |
.357 |
.444 |
.535 |
4 |
3 |
0.52 |
0.430 |
165 |
IF. Carlos Asuaje |
Nova SE |
Y-D |
.288 |
.344 |
.425 |
2 |
3 |
0.45 |
0.328 |
108 |
OF. Austin Wilson |
Stanford |
Harwich |
.312 |
.436 |
.623 |
6 |
3 |
0.42 |
0.460 |
185 |
C. Andrew Knapp |
Cal |
Chatham |
.287 |
.406 |
.491 |
4 |
1 |
0.55 |
0.394 |
143 |
Ervin has been far and away the best hitter on the cape. The outfielder has a ton of power and some speed. He does not have the range to play center, but he is a very good baserunner. Ervin has nine steals in 10 attempts, and stole a base with a huge jump in the All-Star game. Ervin was also a freshman All-American, in 2011.
Two Stanford hitters have had big CCBL seasons. Wilson, an outfielder, has put up ridiculous power numbers. Blandino was drafted by Oakland in 2011, and the shortstop has impressed at the cape this summer, winning the East All-Star game MVP.
Healy, an Oregon product, has put up some incredible numbers and has serious power (he homered off Trevor Bauer, in college), but his BB/K is a little unsettling.
West Division:
Player |
School |
Cape Team |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
HR |
SB |
BB/K |
wOBA |
OPS+ |
C. Mitchell Garver |
New Mexico |
Hyannis |
.265 |
.331 |
.434 |
3 |
3 |
0.37 |
0.335 |
106 |
1B.Daniel Palka |
Georgia Tech |
Wareham |
.285 |
.366 |
.569 |
10 |
4 |
0.38 |
0.409 |
151 |
2B. Mott Hyde |
Georgia Tech |
Wareham |
.301 |
.374 |
.455 |
4 |
8 |
0.32 |
0.369 |
124 |
SS. Bradon Trinkwon |
UCSB |
Hyannis |
.323 |
.355 |
.508 |
5 |
2 |
0.37 |
0.350 |
132 |
3B. Colin Moran |
UNC |
Bourne |
.328 |
.390 |
.516 |
5 |
0 |
0.56 |
0.390 |
144 |
LF. Tyler Horan |
Va. Tech |
Wareham |
.325 |
.384 |
.640 |
10 |
2 |
0.22 |
0.436 |
174 |
CF. Patrick Biondi |
Michigan |
Cotuit |
.404 |
.496 |
.465 |
0 |
11 |
0.84 |
0.395 |
162 |
RF. Mason Robbins |
Southern Miss |
Bourne |
.325 |
.374 |
.596 |
7 |
1 |
0.21 |
0.377 |
160 |
DH. Drew Dosch |
Youngstown |
Falmouth |
.333 |
.389 |
.548 |
6 |
2 |
0.37 |
0.417 |
152 |
IF. John Murphy |
Sacred Heart |
Bourne |
.308 |
.365 |
.452 |
4 |
6 |
0.32 |
0.363 |
121 |
OF. Jacob May |
Coastal Carolina |
Cotuit |
.305 |
.368 |
.366 |
1 |
13 |
0.37 |
0.333 |
100 |
C. Tyler Ross |
LSU |
Wareham |
.216 |
.243 |
.245 |
0 |
0 |
0.10 |
0.202 |
33 |
Palka with a three-hit performance was the West ASG MVP. The Georgia Tech product has oodles of power, but similar to most power-hitting first baseman he strikes out often.
Corner outfielders, Robbins and Horan, put on a show with their left-handed power in the CCBL home run derby. Their power really is impressive, but both have scary BB/K's.
Biondi is the only qualifying hitter with a .400 average. The center fielder has little power but a good BB/K and his hit tool in center field is very good.
Moran, a two-time CCBL all-star, is considered by many to be the best player in the league. While his numbers look impressive, taking the time to watch him play is something special. Moran looks more like a major league-ready hitter than anyone on the cape.
Trinkwon is a defensive wizard at short, and also is an above-average hitter with some power.
Pitching All-Stars:
East Starting Pitchers:
Player |
School |
Cape Team |
IP |
GS |
ERA |
K |
BABIP |
K/BB |
FIP |
kwERA |
Aaron Blair* |
Marshall |
Y-D |
36.1 |
6 |
1.24 |
41 |
.238 |
3.73 |
1.85 |
2.93 |
Tom Windle |
Minnesota |
Brewster |
32.2 |
6 |
2.20 |
40 |
.247 |
10.00 |
2.30 |
2.10 |
Ryan Thompson |
Franklin Pierce |
Chatham |
27.1 |
5 |
2.31 |
27 |
.280 |
3.00 |
2.69 |
3.79 |
Michael Wagner |
San Diego |
Chaham |
27.1 |
5 |
1.98 |
30 |
.230 |
2.14 |
3.49 |
3.44 |
David Whitehead |
Elon |
Harwich |
29.2 |
6 |
3.34 |
20 |
.297 |
3.33 |
2.90 |
3.90 |
*denotes starter of the game
Surprisingly, none of the East starters come from big schools. Blair, the game's starter, has drawn the most attention, with his league leading ERA and win total, but Windle may be the most effective starter in the East. Windle, a Minnesota product, sports the best K/BB and was drafted by the White Sox, in 2010.
West Starting Pitchers:
Player |
School |
Cape Team |
IP |
GS |
ERA |
K |
BABIP |
K/BB |
FIP |
kwERA |
Sean Manaea* |
Indiana St. |
Hyannis |
43.2 |
7 |
1.44 |
75 |
.202 |
12.5 |
1.07 |
0.23 |
Trey Masek |
Texas Tech |
Falmouth |
33 |
6 |
3.55 |
41 |
.284 |
3.42 |
3.78 |
2.93 |
Jeff Hoffman |
East Carolina |
Hyannis |
30 |
5 |
2.4 |
30 |
.207 |
3.99 |
3.06 |
3.13 |
David Garner |
Michigan St. |
Hyannis |
35.1 |
5 |
3.06 |
37 |
.248 |
3.70 |
3.50 |
3.40 |
*denotes starter of the game
Cape League pitching starts and ends with Sean Manaea, this summer. Manaea does not hail from a big school, Indiana St., but that hasn't stopped him from dominating the best hitters in the country. In his last four starts, Manaea has struck out 46 batters, while walking zero, in 26 innings.
In his one inning of work during the ASG, Manaea got all of the outs himself; striking out two and picking off Mathis, who leadoff with an infield single.
Manaea's incredible strikeout numbers have drawn comparisons to Lincecum's work on the Cape, in 2005. Interestingly enough, Lincecum was a closer then, working 39.1 innings and striking out 68 batters, while walking 11.
East Relievers:
Player |
School |
Cape Team |
IP |
G |
ERA |
K |
BABIP |
K/BB |
FIP |
kwERA |
Matt Boyd |
Oregon St. |
Orleans |
21.2 |
10 |
1.66 |
32 |
.261 |
6.4 |
1.54 |
1.30 |
Kyle Crockett |
Virginia |
Orleans |
20.1 |
13 |
0.89 |
21 |
.281 |
10.5 |
2.07 |
2.48 |
Pat Christensen |
LaSalle |
Orleans |
21.1 |
17 |
2.11 |
28 |
.293 |
7.0 |
1.75 |
1.97 |
Bryan Verbitsky |
Hofstra |
Y-D |
18 |
11 |
5.00 |
30 |
.286 |
3.0 |
2.26 |
2.32 |
The CCBL gained a good deal of respect in my eyes, by selecting Verbitsky for the game. It's tough to explain to some people why a guy with a 5 ERA should be on an All-Star team, but his peripheral numbers have been much better than that traditional statistic would indicate.
Boyd and Crockett come from prestigious programs and have put up spectacular numbers for Orleans, this summer.
West Relievers:
Player |
School |
Cape Team |
IP |
G |
ERA |
K |
BABIP |
K/BB |
FIP |
kwERA |
Tim Giel |
Columbia |
Bourne |
24.1 |
9 |
0.74 |
22 |
.159 |
3.67 |
2.13 |
3.27 |
Colby Suggs |
Arkansas |
Wareham |
15.2 |
9 |
0.57 |
21 |
.175 |
3.00 |
1.83 |
2.65 |
Konnor Wade |
Arizona |
Wareham |
12.2 |
8 |
4.97 |
6 |
.233 |
2.00 |
4.17 |
4.90 |
Nick Rumbelow |
LSU |
Wareham |
21.2 |
14 |
3.32 |
36 |
.250 |
3.60 |
3.06 |
1.93 |
Dan Slania |
Notre Dame |
Cotuit |
24.2 |
17 |
1.82 |
36 |
.263 |
12.0 |
1.17 |
1.14 |
Giel, a computer engineering major from Columbia, isn't the prototypical cape leaguer, but he has been making batters look foolish, this summer.
Wade's numbers are in an extremely small sample, but aren't impressive enough to give the National Champ the nod to perform in the game. It seems he made the appearance based solely on reputation.
Slania blew the save in the All-Star Game, but the Notre Dame product has ridiculous numbers, this summer.
Park Factors:
I used a Baseball-Reference's Park Adjustment formula, to calculate park factors for the last three seasons of the CCBL. For reference, 100 is a neutral hitting environment, anything above-100 is hitter-friendly and below-100 is pitcher-friendly:
Team |
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
Bourne |
93 |
78 |
70 |
Brewster |
86 |
94 |
112 |
Chatham |
126 |
88 |
103 |
Cotuit |
122 |
118 |
88 |
Falmouth |
112 |
81 |
120 |
Harwich |
109 |
101 |
68 |
Hyannis |
101 |
112 |
118 |
Orleans |
99 |
78 |
100 |
Wareham |
76 |
112 |
117 |
Y-D |
94 |
149 |
111 |
The results are all over the place. Hyannis and Bourne are the only two parks that stayed on the same side of 100 over the three seasons. Like I said earlier in the piece, a 22-game sample size is not large enough to make these park factors worthwhile in any sort of discussion or analysis.
Run Scoring Environment:
The CCBL is typically known as a low-scoring league that is dominated by pitching; mainly because of the adjustment that has to be made from metal to wood bats. The result of the 2012 All-Star Game, a 1-1 tie, would lead one to believe that has been the case again this season.
Ironically, the run scoring environment is at a record-breaking high. With nine games left in the 2012 season, more runs have been scored (1792), than in each of the last two full seasons (2010: 1580 runs, 2011: 1704 runs).
There are a few possible explanations for this rise in run scoring. The CCBL switched baseball manufacturers before this season and I've heard that a change in stitching has led to a "juiced" baseball. College baseball also changed their metal bat regulations to allow only bats with less pop; which could have made the adjustment to wood bats much easier for hitters. Also, the talent-level of pitching is down. As seen by the schools that the All-Star game starters represented, some of the best collegiate starters aren't at the Cape, this summer.
All Statistics as of Sunday July 29th and come courtesy of PointStreak
You can follow Glenn on twitter @Glenn_DuPaul