A Graphic Look at the Window to Win: Toronto Blue Jays

by David Fung on Feb 20, 2012 2:10 PM EST in Visuals Above Replacement

Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

Twelfth in the series, we look at the Toronto Blue Jays. Ranked 1st overall by John Sickels, they have 15 B-rated prospects, 8 of which are B+. Here's what Keith Law had to say in his org rankings:

One of the many reasons criticism of Rogers Communications, the owner of the Blue Jays, for being stingy with free agents is so ignorant is that the club has spent aggressively in the amateur markets during the past three years, grabbing high-ceiling high school players and Latin American prospects by stockpiling picks and paying whatever it took to sign those players. They are the organization most likely to be No. 1 on this list next winter.

With so many highly ranked prospects in their system, can all their prospects hit at once and make a significant impact?

Most of their prospects will hit starting 2013 including top prospects C Travis d'Anaud and Anthony Gose. Here's what their 2012 lineup looks like:

New acquisition, Current roster info from MLB Depth Charts

Starting Lineup
1 SS Yunel Escobar
2 LF Eric Thames
3 RF Jose Bautista
4 1B Adam Lind
5 DH Edwin Encarnacion
6 3B Brett Lawrie
7 CF Colby Rasmus
8 C J.P. Arencibia
9 2B Kelly Johnson

Bench
C Jeff Mathis*
IF Omar Vizquel*
OF Rajai Davis
OF Ben Francisco*

Starting Rotation
1 LHP Ricky Romero
2 RHP Brandon Morrow
3 LHP Brett Cecil
4 RHP Henderson Alvarez
5 RHP Dustin McGowan

Bullpen
CL RHP Sergio Santos*
SU RHP Francisco Cordero*
SU RHP Casey Janssen
MID LHP Darren Oliver*
MID RHP Jason Frasor*
MID LHP Luis Perez
LR RHP Carlos Villanueva

5 out of 8 of their B+ prospects are pitchers including RHP Noah Syndergaard and LHP Justin Nicolino are set to come up in 2014 to join their starting rotation.

The heart of their lineup and top of their rotation is all locked up through 2014. Similarly to how the Rays snuck up on the entire AL East in 2008, the hope is that the Jays can do that or win one of the two wild cards this upcoming season. While they have impact bats in the lineup and if Morrow/Romero continues to rise, the window is open for them through possibly 2015.

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Comments

Um

If you favor ceiling over probability, you could make a strong argument for having the Rays ahead of the Padres, based on the fact that this system could quite easily produce six to eight players who end up as grade-60 players or better in the majors. After that first tier, however, there’s a lot less probability here than there was a year or two ago, and several executives from other clubs pointed out that the Rays have a gap in their prospect pipeline coming up that will be filled only if some of their 2011 draft picks move faster than anticipated.

That looks like a write-up for the Rays, not the Jays.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Feb 20, 2012 2:30 PM EST reply actions

Unless that’s a typo on Law’s part.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Feb 20, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions

Fixed.

I had some trouble with the draft saving, obviously, it didn’t save my change, but it’s fixed now. Thanks again.

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by David Fung on Feb 20, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

how is number 2 in keith law's rankings "much higher" than number 1 in sickles'?

Ranked 1st overall by John Sickels, they have 15 B-rated prospects, 8 of which are B+. Keith Law sees them much higher in his organizational rankings released last week putting them at #2 overall.

i think you may have mixed this up with the rays a bit

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by yleviticus on Feb 20, 2012 3:19 PM EST reply actions

Fixed. Sorry about that guys.

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by David Fung on Feb 20, 2012 5:42 PM EST up reply actions

Snider will either be on the bench for them or could win a starting job over Thames in LF. This guy was an uber prospect just 3 years ago and could be a total bust but could also have a breakout season this year. This guy had been pegged to be the starting LF for many years and I think Thames gets traded if Snider hits like everyone thought he would 2 years ago.