Free Agent Compensation

With the huge free agent signings this winter, and also with the release of the top 100 prospects (For MLB.com's rankings, http://www.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/) it got me to thinking, "Is Prince Fielder really only worth two draft picks, even if they're first rounders?" Of course Fielder, Albert Pujols, and C.J. Wilson are worth more than that. So how much is a first rounder worth? Note: All WAR numbers are from Baseball Reference.

The Worth of A First Round Pick

Just a brief little bit of research (I plan on expanding on this and the next section later). Taking a look at the first rounders between 1997-2006. Over that time span, 441 players were drafted and 284 of those players made it to the majors (64.4%). The average first round pick that made the majors during that span has a career WAR of 5.9. The average length of said career was 308 games, or a little under two full seasons. If you include the players who never made the majors, the average career WAR is 3.8.

Taking A Look At This Year

We're going to focus in on Prince Fielder here, who happened to fall in these drafts (7th pick in 2002). Prince Fielder had the 23rd highest WAR per 162 during that time at 3.2 (For batters who used up their rookie eligibility) and 20th highest career WAR to date (19.6) for batters during that time.

So, the probability of a 1st round batter matching or exceeding Fielder's WAR per 162 level is 11.7%. So to get one Prince Fielder or better (On the per 162 basis), you'd expect to had to draft 9 batters, and 10 batters on the career basis.

Does two draft picks make up for this? With those two picks, the chance of getting one Prince Fielder or better is 20.7%. Those aren't exactly odds I'd want to bet on. Most likely, in those two picks you'll get a Matt Murton and a Vince Faison.

A New Proposal For Free Agent Compensation

Now, the main thing I wanted to get to. Personally, I'm not a big fan of the new compensation system set out in the new CBA. It's better than the NFL, NHL, and NBA (i.e. better than nothing). However, the point of the compensation system is to allow teams to rebuild from the loss of a free agent and hopefully have a decent chance at getting a player of equal value back. As we see from above, with two first round picks, you're not likely to luck out. Even though a Type B free agent won't be as good, the chance of making up for that player with one supplemental pick is even less likely.

So here's my idea. Not that this would ever be adopted, but it's fun to dream. Instead of taking a shot with a draft pick, a team can get prospects from the other team. Draft picks and supplemental picks (And their associated protections) would still be involved, but the prospects would be the main gain for the old team.

Here's how it would work. Based on the quality of a player, the age of the player, the length of the contract, etc. the team that lost a player gets to pick a prospect from the player's new team. Now, the new team isn't entirely out of luck. Once again, based on various things, the new team can protect a certain number of prospects (Haven't used up their rookie eligibility), with the minimum number of protected prospects being, say, five prospects. This compensation would be determined by an outside agency (Similar to arbitration), with the prospect draft occurring the day before Opening Day. Any other free agents signed afterward would only be eligible for draft pick compensation. Can't you see Keith Law, Jayson Stark, and all the guys here at Beyond the Boxscore discussing the worth of a player, which prospects should be protected, etc? Let's take a look at a few historical scenearios to set a baseline, and then we'll take a look at this year's Free agent class.

Historical Scenarios

2007: The St. Louis Cardinals, who for some reason, lose 27 year old Albert Pujols after failing to sign him to an extension early in his career. Team X signs Pujols to an 8-year deal. Since Pujols, 6-time top 5 MVP finalist, is coming into his prime and Team X will get his whole prime, Team X gets to protect 5 prospects and the Cardinals also get Team X first round pick and a sandwich pick.

2007: Same scenario, except Team X signs Pujols to a 3 year contract. Now, you could have two options: Team X protects 9 prospects plus two picks, or Team X protects 6 prospects plus Team X's first rounder pick. Which do you take?

2010: 32 year old Cliff Lee is a free agent. Team X signs him to a 5 year deal. Team X gets to protect 5 picks plus a sandwich pick since Lee is slightly beyond the prime.

2010: 36 year old Bengie Molina is a free agent. Team X signs him (In this case, since he is as old as he is, deal length doesn't matter). Molina is listed as a type-A free agent, but he is way over the hill and just had posted three sub-zero WAR seasons. All the Giants will get out of this one is a sandwich pick.

Obviously, there are other combinations that could get fun (Think about choosing between protecting 12 prospects vs. 2 draft picks), but that should give you a reasonable idea for a baseline. Now, onto...

The 2011-12 Free Agents

Note: Prospect protection assumed to be the top prospects according to Baseball America.

Prince Fielder: Prince is 27, and signed to a new 9 year deal. Now, is Fielder worth more than Pujols? How about the fact that the Tigers get his prime seasons? In this dream...Scenario: Tigers protect 5 prospects. Brewers get first rounder plus a sandwich pick. Brewers take RHP Brenny Paulino

The New Angels: How often has it been that a team signs two key players from the previous year’s league champions? Can’t be too often. Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson both signing with the Angels presents a new problem: How to deal with a team that picks up two marquee free agents. First, a look at the numbers. Pujols is 32, signed for 10 years, and has 3 MVPs. Wilson is 31 and had a couple of good seasons, signed for 5 years, and doesn’t have a ton of innings on his arm. So, how do we deal with the Angels?Scenario: Angels protect 6 prospects for Pujols and 2 more for Wilson. Did I rate Pujols lower than Fielder to start some controversy? You bet your life I did! Cardinals also get two sandwich picks (One of which is the first of the supplemental round). Cardinals select first and take RHP John Hellweg. Rangers get the first rounder (By virtue of finishing “worse” than the Cardinals in the season) plus a sandwich pick. Rangers take LHP Nick Maronde.

Jose Reyes: At 28, Reyes should be coming into his prime. However, injury concerns remain and there is always the worry about the decline of speed guys. Now, signed for 6 years, the price for Reyes is... Scenario: Marlins protect 8 prospects plus a sandwich OR Marlins protect 10 prospects plus two sandwich picks since the Marlins first round pick is protected. Since there aren’t any really strong prospects for Miami around 8, the Mets take RHP Christ Hatcher and the two sandwiches.

Mark Buerhle:Buehrle is a bit below Reyes, mainly due to age. He’s had a nice career with 46.6 WAR, even if he’s only finished in the Cy Young top 5 once. Signed for four years. Scenario: Marlins protect 9 prospects plus a sandwich. White Sox select after Mets and take LHP Adam Conley.

Jonathan Papelbon: Now, I’m not really in favor of teams getting any compensation for most relief pitchers. The only exception is for closers, and even then, the compensation is minimal regardless of deal length or age. Scenario: Phillies protect 20 prospects OR sandwich pick. Red Sox take pick.

Yu Darvish: This system doesn’t affect Darvish or any other international free agents.

So there’s a start. So what do you think? Did I overvalue Fielder or undervalue Reyes? Would you take other prospects? Feel free to comment.