The problems with the Year After Effect are multifold. In Verducci’s article this year, he asserts the validity of the effect by saying, "In just the past six years, for instance, I flagged 55 pitchers at risk for an injury or regression based on their workload in the previous season. Forty-six of them, or 84 percent, did get hurt or post a worse ERA in the Year After." He later says, "Two out of the nine pitchers I red flagged last year actually stayed healthy or improved… more typical, though, were the regressions last year by David Price, Phil Hughes, Mat Latos and Brett Cecil, all of whom I red-flagged."Baseball Prospectus | Resident Fantasy Genius: Verducci Effect: Fact or Fake? (subscription required) Not that you thought it was real, but hey.