Around the SaberSphere 11/7: Nate Silver's projection, the 2013 draft, Dan Haren: a Padre?

Chip Somodevilla

Today's edition of sabermetric links include what Nate Silver and the election tell us about baseball statistics, some top 2013 draft prospects, Dan Haren as a Padre and more...

I'm sure if you visit Beyond the Box Score then you have heard of Nate Silver, but the former sabermetrician did pretty well at projecting last night's presidential election: Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Grant Brisbee of Baseball Nation discusses what a baseball fan can take away form Silver's success: This is a Nate Silver article that's related to baseball - Baseball Nation

And you know what? Silver's numbers were better than just about anyone else's, but they were still imperfect numbers. He doesn't think of himself as a wizard. He knows there were things that could have could have messed up the model, which is why he always left a little room for doubt. He probably already has some ideas on how to rejigger his formulas based on Tuesday's results.

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs presented a similar piece (no cat gif, though) that delved into some of the same ideas about imperfect data modeling: Nate Silver and Imperfect Modeling | FanGraphs Baseball

Last night was undoubtedly a win for data-based analysis, but let’s be honest, the results don’t always turn out that well. Just as we shouldn’t have discarded Nate’s model had the results been different, we shouldn’t believe his model is perfect because the results did line up with what he projected. His model is still imperfect, but it’s also still useful.

Minor League Ball has a great resource for 2013 draft profiles, in my opinion Sean Manaea is a guy to keep a keen eye on: 2013 Draft Profile Index - Minor League Ball

Dex of Gaslamp Ball gives us five interesting reasons for why the San Diego Padres should acquire free agent starter Dan Haren: Five reasons the San Diego Padres would/should pick up Dan Haren - Gaslamp Ball

That tradition of course being to pick up pitchers after an off year and make the most of them. In Dan Haren's case, a bounce back to pre-2012 means another Cy Young Award Winner in Petco Park (fences be damned). Another season like 2012 in Petco Park means a Cy Young contender.

Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus looks back some failed (and successful) predictions from within the industry: Baseball Prospectus | Pebble Hunting: Are GMs Smart or Not Smart?

Once a year, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick polls baseball executives on Hot Stove topics. This year Crasnick surveyed “22 general managers, assistant GMs, advisers, scouting directors and talent evaluators in the field for their opinions on seven questions that are likely to drive media coverage,” and the results are characteristically fun: Josh Hamilton to the Brewers! One year and $2 million for Melky! Many other things! It’s one of my favorite pieces each offseason, and I hope it goes on forever, or at least until I die, because it makes me sad to think that the world will keep going when I’m gone.

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