A Graphic Look at the Nationals with Gio and Prince
by David Fung on Jan 4, 2012 9:00 AM EST
in Visuals Above Replacement
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As many of you would probably argue, this may be a little early to start predicting where your team would end up in the standings, but with projections season amongst us, how do you think the Washington Nationals would fare with their acquisition of Gio Gonzalez, and possibly soon-to-be-signed Prince Fielder?
Based off the latest 2012 CAIRO Projections, looks like they're looking at 86 wins, 6 wins more than their 2011 win total. Within the CAIRO projections spreadsheet from Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, they've already mapped out a method of projecting standings.
Anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and including playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 100,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 13, 2011. These were run with Aramis Ramirez as a Brewer, but I didn’t remove any of the non-tendered players from yesterday from their rosters.
I've gone ahead and replaced Ross Detwiller as a starter and Adam LaRoche as the starting 1B with Gio and Prince.
With my original calculations based off Scott McKinney's method of WAR calculations for the Royals, this only yielded 79 wins, so this new method seemed more plausible.
The result of swapping Gio and Prince with Ross Detwiler and Adam LaRoche resulted in 6.2 extra wins.
2012 Proj
Gio/Prince: 7.6 WAR
Detwilier/LaRoche: 1.4 WAR
2011
Gio: 3.5 WAR
Prince: 5.5 WAR
You can imagine that this win total can be +/- 1 based on park effects. With 86 wins, the standings would look like this (based on CAIRO Projections 12/13)
2012 NL East Projections
| TEAM | W | L |
| Phillies | 92 | 70 |
| Braves | 87 | 75 |
| Nationals | 86 | 76 |
| Marlins | 81 | 81 |
| Mets | 76 | 86 |
With the Philadelphia Phillies aging by the minute, it's likely that the Nationals are able to compete for the NL East crown, or at the least, the NL Wild Card with this win total.
More Resources:
-Go see our previous look into the Nationals offseason, Replacing Runs in FA: Nationals.
-Read about the latest on the Nationals and Fielder on this Federal Baseball post. Lots of goodies here.
Click here for full image. Check out FUNGraphs.info or follow me @cobradave for more.
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wording
they could win, but I wouldn’t say they will win with Gio and Prince.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Nice graph
But CAIRO works best when you have somewhat established players and the Nats have far too many young players to be able to do this type of forecasting for their team. They could add Gio and PF and have everyone stay fairly static and hit 90 wins just from the boost they receive from Strasburg, they could also add Gio and PF and win 80 games because Morse, Espinosa and Ramos all regress. Also, it’s next to impossible to say what kind of impact Bryce Harper will have on this team or what the defensive impact of signing PF and then moving Jayson Werth to CF would be. I’d say with PF the Nats are an 86-90 win team, but there’s a ton of variables here that are pretty tough to account for.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
True. Harper was only projected at 1.1 WAR
With 598 PA. So assuming he gets less than that, his contribution this year is potentially fairly small.
FWIW, I ran updated projections with Gio yesterday
I have the Nats at 82.4 wins now, I’d figure around 85 with Fielder.
RLYW: Still Way Too Early and Mostly Useless 2012 Projected Standings
Great work on all the CAIRO work BTW.
It’s fun to debate how teams might do based on these. So with the new projections, we’re both pretty close!
Nats
I have been running my simulator through the complete 2012 schedule as players have been signed and traded. I am now up to my 15th revision of standings. I play each of the 2430 games 10K times, and add up all the win expectancies for each team to get their expected win totals. I use depth charts for hitters and estimate games played for each player. I have my own proprietary set of input projections for hitters and pitchers. Only thing I have left out for the moment is starting rotation depth. I just use the top five pitchers on each team for the whole season, so teams with more or less depth or more or less injury risks in their rotation could be docked. Here is what my simulator has the NL East looking like at the moment (pre-Fielder, post-Gio).
Rank, Team, Wins, RS, RA
1. Phillies 93.7, 695, 578
2. Braves 82.1, 650, 650
3. Marlins 81.3, 712, 694
4. Nationals 78.1, 645, 666
5. Mets 76.3, 645, 672
certainly looks like the NL East
is going to be interesting next year. The Phillies will win the division barring disaster, but the next three teams are awfully close with or without Fielder. Mets fans are tearing their hair out that their team is in no position to take advantage of such a climate.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Thanks for posting these.
I don’t do the sims myself so it’s helpful to get extra resources with these numbers to work from.
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