A Graphic Look at Pineda vs Montero

by David Fung on Jan 14, 2012 9:00 AM EST in Visuals Above Replacement

What a block buster eh? Considering Pineda is under team control for 5 more years and Montero for 6, this seems like an unlikely trade for the Yankees. We're all used to the big contract acquisitions from them, but this one's interesting. Michael Pineda (3.4 WAR / 171 IP in 2011) and Jesus Montero (0.6 WAR / 69 PA in 2011) both are 22 years of age, and are projecting over 3 WAR next year according to OLIVER.

So how does this trade project for both teams in the next 3 seasons?

The projections for next year seem to widely vary in terms of WAR, but for IP and PA, seems to look at Pineda pitching around 175 IP and Montero getting 496 PA.

Pineda Projections (2012)

OLIVER: 4.1 WAR / 180 IP
CAIRO: 2.6 WAR / 168 IP
Bill James: - / 176 IP

Montero Projections (2012)

OLIVER: 3.3 WAR / 554 PA
CAIRO: 2.2 WAR / 380 PA
Bill James: - / 552 PA

While Jose Campos, the prospect the Mariners are sending to the Yankees, has an ETA of 2015, Hector Noesi, the former Yankees prospect, played in 56.1 innings last year tallying 7.19 K/9, 3.51 BB/9 and a 4.09 FIP. In low A last year, Campos played in 81.1 innings and tallying 9.41 K/9, 1.44 BB/9 and a 2.38 FIP. John Sickels rates Campos as the Mariners 5th best prospect with a B rating.

Although the cumulative WAR favors the Mariners (15.3 WAR vs 11 WAR for the Yankees), assuming the Mariners would use Montero in the DH role, that would be to their benefit as he's not the best defensive backstop. Even if we do think of DH as an aging player's position, this 2010 Baseball Reference article notes that the age of the DH is getting younger. Via the handy Play Index, the avg age of a DH between 06-11 is 32 years old.

I do think slugging is easier and cheaper to buy than quality starting pitching. See Mark Buehrle this year: 3.4 WAR, and pulling in 4 years / $58MM, Paul Konerko's 2010 contract year: 3.9 WAR and 3 years / $37.5MM

What the internet thinks of the trade:

Analysis and Background of Pineda/Montero Deal (MLB Trade Rumors)
Yankees Land Pineda, Don't Pay Retail (Fangraphs)
New York Yankees Trade Jesus Montero To The Seattle Mariners For Michael Pineda (Pinstripe Alley)
So Michael Pineda Is Leaving And Jesus Montero Is Coming (Lookout Landing)
Cashman Rebuilds Yankees Rotation (Jim Bowden, ESPN)
Despite Moving from Safeco, Pineda Should Thrive as a Yankee (Bill Petti, here!)
The Prospects Mariners/Yankees Trade (Minor League Ball)

Poll

Who won this trade?

Yankees

250 votes

Mariners

130 votes

380 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 5 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

There's one big problem I have with these charts, David.

You’re mapping a one-dimensional data set to a two-dimensional chart. Ignoring the “peak WAR” part of it, you have two circles, one corresponding to 11 WAR, one corresponding to 15.3 WAR. How did you map WAR to the circles? Is it mapped to the radius of the circles? What about the area?

If it’s the radius, these charts can be misleading by misrepresenting area, since area increases with the square of the radius. If it’s the area, these charts can be misleading by misrepresenting the radius, since the radius increases with the square root of the area. See what I mean? You have two dimensions in the chart that increase at different rates. If it was one-dimensional, there would be no room for confusion. There’s just lots of room for ambiguity when you use circles.

by danmerqury on Jan 14, 2012 1:45 PM EST reply actions

I've been warned circles.

This is supposed to be one dimensional. Maybe I shouldn’t have colored in the inner circle. I didn’t use radius for mapping the circles, I’ve done that in the past, but I realized it was wrong, so I’m deal with the area.

I should probably stick to one dataset only when doing these.

by David Fung on Jan 14, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions