2011 MLB Playoff NLDS Preview: Diamondbacks vs. Brewers

by Bill Petti on Sep 30, 2011 11:50 AM EDT in Team Previews & Analysis

ALDS Preview: Rays vs. Rangers | Tigers vs. Yankees

NLDS Preview: Cardinals vs. Phillies | Diamondbacks vs. Brewers

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Saturday at 2:07pm EST, the Diamondbacks and Brewers kick-off the 2011 NLDS in Milwaukee.

The Diamondbacks emerged as the top team in the NL West, overtaking the defending champion Giants. Justin Upton turned in an MVP-caliber performance, leading the offense to a run scoring rate 7% better than the NL average. The pitching and defense, however, performed well enough to create a decent run differential (5% below league average).

The Brewers produced very similar numbers to the Diamondbacks, scoring runs at a slightly higher rate relative to league (9%), and preventing them at a near average rate (2% less than league average).

Both teams are capable of getting men on base (league-average OBP), and then driving them home with some significant power (+6/7% slugging, +14% and +21% HR/FB ratios).

The issue in this series will be the run prevention, particularly how Arizona handles the Brewers offense on the road.

The Diamondbacks were five games over .500 on the road this season, while the Brewers were three games under .500 when playing on the road.

Milwaukee sported the best home record in baseball (57-24), but saw their offense score .7 runs per game less when playing away from Miller Park. Meanwhile, Milwaukee's run prevention actually got worse on the road, to the tune of nearly .40 runs per game. That being said, the Brewers handle the Diamondback's offense pretty well on the road (2.31 ERA, .037 HR/PA, OPS+ against of 66).

The same can't be said for the Brewers offense. Milwaukee only managed an OPS+ of 86 against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field, largely due to one of their lowest BABIP in any park (.260).

Arizona was able to light it up offensively at Miller Park this year (OPS+ 122), while keeping the lid on the Brewers offense (OPS+ against of 91).

Of course, these teams only played seven games head-to-head this year, but if Arizona can steal at least one of the first two games in Milwaukee the series becomes very winnable given the Brewers' trouble on the road.

My prediction: Arizona pulls of the upset, three games to one.

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Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.

Statistics have not been park adjusted, but are adjusted for each team's respective league.

Offense

RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio

Defense

RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (FanGraphs' version)

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio

Poll

Who wins the Diamondback-Brewers series?

Diamondbacks

63 votes

Brewers

89 votes

152 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I think the brewers are going to take thiso n easily. They have a better 1 2 3 punch in pitching with Marcum gaillardo and greinke and a better offense, with the diamondbacks comming out of a AAA type division where a .500 record will someyears get you into the playoffs, i think there in for a spanking.

by Jt Malley on Sep 30, 2011 5:18 PM EDT reply actions

sounds like

someone hasn’t watched a single diamondbacks game this season.

like a tornado hitting a jelly bean factory on Halloween.

by leemellon on Sep 30, 2011 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions

This is lulzy.

There are plenty of reasons to believe that the Brewers will win this series, but these aren’t them.

1) By ERA, Kennedy > Gallardo and Hudson > Greinke. So much for your 1-2-3 punch, right? D-backs probably have the best defense in the NL, too, so even though the Brewers’ staff has better FIP figures, those stats are silly to use. After all, the games don’t occur in fielding-independent environments, so why use a stat called Fielding Independent Pitching to determine who should come out on top? If Milwaukee wins, it’s because their offense plays better than Arizona’s.

2) The Diamondbacks are the team in a AAA division? You mean the division that includes the reigning World Series champions and just two teams with sub-.500 records? L.A.’s finances may be the joke of the league, but that club finished 82-79 and had perhaps the both the MVP and Cy Young on its roster. If you want to talk about a joke division, how about the NL Central, where 2/3 of the division – and four of the five teams Milwaukee got to face on a regular basis – finished below .500?

Combined record of non-Arizona teams in the NL West: 312-335 (.482 W%)
Combined record of non-Milwaukee teams in the NL Central: 368-442 (.454 W%)

Yeah, you’re right, how about that AAA type division? Y’know, the NL Central…

D-backs are going to make this a heck of a series to follow, particularly with nobody giving them a chance.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 30, 2011 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions