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In this postseason debut of my 2011 projections--and for the first time since I started running the numbers--the Texas Rangers find themselves in the driver's seat. It's the first time since mid-August that an AL team is good enough to overcome their peers and the NL's 2-3% home field advantage to claim the top spot. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus.
|Probability of Postseason Series Victory||9/30/2011|
- With either the Yanks or the Rangers likely to represent the Junior Circuit, the American League are 2:3 favorites to defeat the National League and their 2% home field advantage in the World Series.
- The Tigers have a 43.5% shot to repeat their 2006 conquest of the Yankees in the ALDS and a 18.4% chance to return to the World Series.
- In other five-year anniversary news, Cardinals have a 17% chance to return to the World Series and a 5.6% chance to repeat their improbable victory
- The odds of a 2006 World Series rematch--Cardinals vs. Tigers--are a slim 33:1.
- The likelihood of a 2001 rematch--Yankees and Diamondbacks--is 4.1%.
- The likelihood of a 2008 rematch--Rays and Phillies--is 7.8%.
- The likelihood of a 2009 rematch--Yanks and Phillies--is 12.2%
- The likelihood of a 1964 rematch--Yanks and Cardinals--is 4.8%, although word is that Bob Gibson and Mel Stottlemyre are unavailable.
Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.