2005 Draft Retrospective: Cameron Maybin's Revenge

by backtocali on Sep 22, 2011 1:18 PM EDT

Having worked as a scout in the past, one of my favorite days of the MLB season is draft day. I love to have my Baseball American Draft Preview in front of me while the picks come across the screen, and dream as an area scout might on each pick. Living in Milwaukee, I have for the past 10 years or so focused in on the player I felt they should choose when draft day comes.

In the 2005 First Year Player Draft, that player was Cameron Maybin. I loved the speed, loved that he was a CF, the premium athletic ability, loved the gap power and the potential for some power as he developed. Maybin was ranked #3 in the the BA Draft Preview and listed him as having a ceiling between Preston Wilson and Vldimir Guerrero.

The Brewers selected Ryan Braun that year, who was ranked 14th in the BA Preview, and went on to win the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year award, and is one of the front runners for this years MVP Award. Since that day I have always maintained my belief that Maybin was my guy, and until this year was ridiculed for it.

This year, now with his 3rd organization (the San Diego Padres), Maybin has finally showed some of the promise that led the Tigers to select him 10th in that draft and give him a $2.6 million signing bonus. Between Draft Day 2005 and today, Maybin was probably rushed to the major leagues by the Tigers at age 20 in only his first full season of professional baseball, traded to the Marlins in a package that sent Miguel Cabrera to Detroit, was sent up and down to the Minor Leagues twice in 2 years while with the Marlins, and then finally traded to the Padres this past off season for a couple of relief pitchers.

Maybin is having a breakout season: His defense has been good, his speed has been on display, and he has held his own at the plate.

Maybin's problem during those earlier years was always strike outs, tons and tons of strike outs. He had problems with pitch recognition and making contact. This year he has dramatically cut his strike out rate from a career number of around 28% down to 21%. He has always had a problem with breaking pitches, but this season he is hammering fast balls, probably because he is seeing them that much more given his position in the Padre batting order.He is still succeptible to sliders but has improved his performance on change ups and curve balls.

His walk rate has decreased a bit, and although he isnt making any more or less contact, on balls inside or outside the strike zone, he is making better contact overall. He has had a bit of luck this season with a .332 BABIP, but if you regress it down to league average, it probably doesnt hurt his overall value too much.

He is on pace for a 4.4 WAR season, and it wouldnt be out of the realm of possibility to expect another all star level season from him next year. I would realistically project him for at least a 4 WAR season next year. And that number would be a conservative estimate given he will be entering his age 25 season next year, and one would expect that he could improve nicely over the next 3 years entering his peak.

A lot of his value this season has come from CF defense (7.8 UZR) and an impactful baserunning performance. These two things have been expected of him from day one being a speedster with great athletic ability. But is it foolish of me to proclaim still that Maybin was "my guy" still over a Ryan Braun? I dont think so.

This is a ranking of total WAR compiled for players from the 2005 Draft through their age 24 season (according to fangraphs):

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals, 19.5 WAR
Justin Upton, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks, 15.6 (through age 23 season)
Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates, 12.9
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies, 12.3
Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati Reds, 11.3
Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers, 8.1
Colby Rasmus, CF, St. Louis Cardinals, 8
Cameron Maybin, CF, Detroit Tigers 7
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston Red Sox, 5.6
Matt Garza, RHP, Minnesota Twins, 5

If Maybin maintains his speed, improves on his walk rate, and contact quality, there is no reason to thinkt hat Maybin isnt one of the stars from that vaunted 2005 draft. He probably wont ever be able to put up the offensive numbers that Ryan Braun does, since he plays in extremely pitcher friendly Petco Park, as well as a good portion in Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park, but his defense, baserunning, and overall game should keep him in very good company for the foreseable future.

People who might think my viewpoint on this issue is crazy (Brewers should have drafted Maybin in 05 instead of Braun), might not realize how close the two players are in performance, or that Braun was only the 6th best player takin in that draft. Obviously, with any of the players on that list above, or even some that didnt make it such as Ricky Romero, your team has a nice player on their hand, and the true difference between all of the players cant be determined until their careers are over.

But it is refreshing to see that some of the high school players that were taken in that draft that were possibly thought of as failures because they were being compared to the college guys from that draft, are starting to show how smart those draft picks really were. And for me, nice to finally see "my guy" start to come into his own.

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BtC..

*If I could offer some advice, I would, and I will, because “will” > “would” when it comes to telling someone the truth.
Here it is;
Please, would you please get an avatar or profile picture change? Every time I’ve read a piece of writing of yours, it see this little guy going “bweeeehhhhhh mehhhhhh mwaaahhhh blahhh” and screaming at me with a mixture of Cartman and Tweak making up the over-arching voice texture.

Just think about it, please? Thanks. Now I’m going to look at the news coming out of L.A. as to whether or not Bud Selig has asked Mark Attanasio if he’d do him a favor and buy the Dodgers.
You make me so mad!! Grrrrr

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 24, 2011 7:15 AM EDT reply actions

What a draft

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton

by LaserVortex888 on Sep 24, 2011 11:30 AM EDT reply actions

I have no idea where you pulled those numbers out of your ass, but...

Braun has 24.4 Total WAR through his first 5 years (age 24)

"Obi Braun Kenobi you're our only hope!"

by ObiBraunKenobi on Sep 24, 2011 11:22 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Ryan Braun's age 24 season was 2008

his 2nd season.

Check your facts before humiliating yourself.

by backtocali on Sep 25, 2011 7:55 AM EDT up reply actions

But selectively ignoring other facts, that's just fine, apparently.

Not to mention fabricating others out of whole cloth.

You need to forgive and move on, BTC. The fact that Braun has made you look foolish for criticizing him and underestimating him over and over and over again isn’t his fault. Let it go.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 25, 2011 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

See here's the problem

You obviouslydont like my opinion. Anyone who reads BCB and has seen interactions between the two of us knows that.

But there isnt anything selective going on here. This is a comparison of the player from the very successful 2005 draft, where the HS players who are finally graduating and coming into their own, are showing that they are just as valuable as the college guys taken that year.

If you believe in Sabermetric and advanced statistical measures, then you will see that at age 24 Braun and Maybin are pretty close. Braun does a ton with the bat, and always will, while his defense is pretty bad, decreasing his overall value. Maybin has speed and great defense, while holding his own at the plate, and he plays a premium position.

by backtocali on Sep 25, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't like people who pursue agendas they deny having.

I don’t like people who exaggerate their qualifications to make an argument when the flaws of the argument they make are pointed out, as you have in the past. I don’t like people who tout their own lack of bias when it’s quite obvious they’re completely biased.

Besides all of that, your argument that Braun and Maybin are pretty close is based on your total WAR calculation before the age of 25. You make that argument without acknowledging that Braun played part of 2 seasons in putting up the 8.1 WAR he put up before 25, whereas Maybin put up his 7 WAR in parts of 5 seasons. That’s not remotely the same thing. And since you pointed out here that “this isn’t about 2011” I’m not sure why it is you’re falling all over yourself to project Maybin’s 4 WAR 2011 forward while declining to project Braun’s 2011 WAR of 7.2 forward.

In short, even ignoring how long it took for the numbers to accumulate, 8>7.1, and 7.2>4.2 (their 2011 WAR values according to FanGraphs).

How ’bout that for numbers?

You’re pathetic. And I’m done spending my time on you and your nonsense.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 25, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

Please don't be done

It’s just so satisfying…

"If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be." - Yogi Berra

by mnbrewer on Sep 25, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

And I even drew this picture of him;

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 24, 2011 11:35 PM EDT reply actions

okay, BtC

I’m done with this. I really don’t believe you are intentionally out to make people feel like doormats, and would attribute this more to a rigid way of thinking. Something I guess I may be guilty of.

Ryan Braun is just something else! Such a special player to me. You’re not going to see many at-bats better than Super-8’s.
But he’s not the type of player you are after.

I’ve lived my life in a way where I have no tolerance whatsoever for bullying. I’m afraid I may be guilty of it, but please… just change the avatar or explain that you are not the dude in that picture.

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 24, 2011 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions

With analysis like this

I’m shocked that you’re no longer working as a scout.

The Brewers at Miller Park: "ALL WE DO IS WIN, WIN, WIN NO MATTER WHAT"

The Brewers on the road: See above

by Tepo6688 on Sep 25, 2011 12:00 AM EDT reply actions 10 recs

lol..

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 25, 2011 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions

So what you're saying is

A high school player has a better chance of accumulating more Major League WAR by a really young age than a college player?

by Cheeseandcorn on Sep 25, 2011 10:02 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs

The Brewers should trade Braun for Maybin as soon as possible.

Then again, they would also probably have to give up their top 2-3 prospects to get the hall of famer that Maybin will be.

by Noah Jarosh on Sep 25, 2011 10:45 AM EDT reply actions

Yes.

I mean, it only took 5 years of play for Maybin to put up 7/8 the WAR that Braun put up in 2.

Put another way, if Braun retired right now, it would take Maybin a scant 12 years to put up the WAR that Braun has at this point of his career. Which means that if Braun plays to say age 35, Maybin will surpass Braun’s WAR at some point before Maybin retires.

Assuming that Maybin plays past his 50th birthday.

In short, BTC’s done a good job of pointing out that Maybin doesn’t suck, and is still young enough to be a good MLB player if he continues to develop. What BTC hasn’t done (regardless of the conclusion he reaches here) is demonstrate that Maybin will ever remotely be the player than Braun has been since the day he was called up to Milwaukee. But hey, looking for fair, rational analysis out of BTC when the Brewers and/or Braun are part of the conversation is a lot like expecting weasel to become a vegetarian if you ask nicely.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 25, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions

This post

Illustates how you just dont get it. You’re a fan and that’s great, I get it. Youve been a fan of a team for your entire life that has sucked really bad for most of it, and its time for you to revel in their good season. This post is about numbers.

But the point of this post is that by the time the players above were age 24, just coming into their own as major leaguers, they have all really become nice players. It doesnt matter that it took one full season and parts of two others for Maybin to get to the point that Braun is performance wise. The point is that their is a certain life span of a major league baseball player, and once you hit that age it becomes very difficult to produce much of anything.

Maybin has 4 more seasons until he hits his peak, and if he does the next 3/4 years, what he has done this year, all the while improving, coming close to that 24/25 range for career WAR to that point wouldnt be a stretch of the imagination.

His speed is the key determinant of how much value he can produce over the next few years, as well as his career. And if he runs the bases well, continues to steal bases, and play excellent CF defense, he can be just as productive as Braun is and has been. And if he can continue to improve at the plate, his value will only increase.

his isnt a post about 2011, this is a post about the possible career path of a guy who was written off at age 21, while being compared to players who were age 25 already. Scouts will tell you that you have to be firm in your convictions, and not worry about misses or bustsbecause every guy and ever team at some poitn misses and believes in players that dont work out. And its very nice to see that when your convictions turn out to be correct, its all the better.

If this were a post about any of the 5 players above Braun on the list would you be just as upset because it showed that your guy isnt as good as percieved? The guy is a very good player, he is probably going to be the MVP this year (although their is debate about whether he or Kemp deserves it more), and the post isnt to downplay him, but to show that other options beside him have worked out even better, and some have been just as good.

by backtocali on Sep 25, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

The Brewers could have called up Braun early

and then he would have absolutely shattered Maybin’s numbers, but why would they do that? See, real teams aren’t interested in WAR by age 24.

The fact is, you picked an arbitrary end point in order to make Braun look as bad as possible, but anyone actually looking at all the numbers would never in a million years conclude what you did.

"If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be." - Yogi Berra

by mnbrewer on Sep 25, 2011 12:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

"This post is about numbers"

Or at least the numbers you want to look at.

I have no problem with people pointing out players that are better than Braun, so long as the player in question, is, you know, better than Braun.

You have a problem with the Brewers organization and with Braun in particular. You try to hide that behind your biased analysis, but in the fan you’re a fan just like I am. Except you deny it, when I don’t.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 25, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

And if you think your post demonstrates that Maybin would have "worked out even better" or "just as good" as Braun,

then I think it’s pretty clear who it is that doesn’t get it. It doesn’t remotely do either of those things, at least not as far as Maybin is concerned. If you want to argue about one of the other players drafted in 2005 being as good as or better than Braun, have at it. But even your skewed sample size demonstrates that your conclusion that Maybin would have worked out as well or better than Braun is just flat out wrong.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 25, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

The problem is that you're using the wrong numbers to determine a player's value to the team that drafts him

That would be service time, not age. Players aren’t under team control until they reach a certain age; they’re under team control until they reach a certain amount of service time. When the Tigers drafted Maybin (and the Marlins traded for him), they didn’t care how much value he would accumulate over the course of his career; they cared about how much value he would accumulate as a cost-controlled player for them.

So let’s look at WAR by service time, since that’s what actually matters when you’re drafting. Here’s WAR in the first 2-2.3 years of service time, which is how much Maybin has right now:

Ryan Braun, 13.1 WAR
Andrew McCutchen, 12.9 WAR
Ryan Zimmerman, 10.5 WAR
Jacoby Ellsbury, 8.2 WAR
Matt Garza, 8.2 WAR
Colby Rasmus, 7.1 WAR
Jay Bruce, 7 WAR
Cameron Maybin, 6.5 WAR
Troy Tulowitzki, 6 WAR
Justin Upton, 5.2 WAR

Maybin doesn’t come out too great, and the two guys behind him have played at an MVP level since they hit that ~2-year level of service time. If Maybin has an MVP-caliber year next year, we can put him in this discussion. If not, he’s really not in the same ballpark as any of these guys.

by Cheeseandcorn on Sep 25, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

+1

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Sep 25, 2011 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm starting to think

That BtC is just part of an elaborate psychological study meant to test Brewers’ fans collective response to bullshit.

I mean how else would a sane person possibly come to the conclusion that Ryan Braun is of equal value to Cameron Maybin?

"If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be." - Yogi Berra

by mnbrewer on Sep 25, 2011 11:02 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

This

I never really minded BtC, but this is just lunacy. Maybin is good, but he’s not on the same page as Ryan Braun.

My goodness.

by BrewHaHeather on Sep 25, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

The Brewers hate is going to be there, but to try and say Maybin is as good or close to Braun, just stop. I have never read so many posts by one person who tries to twist data to make an organization sound so awful. There is a difference between criticism and just plain rambling.

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton

by LaserVortex888 on Sep 25, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

I think you're just approaching this wrong.

If you want to argue that your evaluation of Maybin wasn’t nearly as bad as people have been saying, okay. Maybin has been very solid this year, and could end up being a very good center fielder for a while.

But to argue that Maybin is now on his way to becoming an equal or superior draft pick to Braun is simply nonsense. Braun’s not only provided more value; he’s provided more immediate value, too, and a dollar today is always worth more than a dollar tomorrow. In general, you simply couldn’t argue that Braun hasn’t been a substantially better draft pick.

You want to say that your evaluations of Maybin as a potential high-quality MLB player have been justified now? Go ahead, you’re right. But acting as if Maybin is proving to be similar in quality to Braun simply isn’t fair.

Through age-23: Braun – 3.1 WAR, Maybin – 2.3 WAR
Through age-24: Braun – 8.1 WAR, Maybin – 6.5 WAR

There’s are two problems with this premise: (a) Braun did it much sooner and in a smaller time frame, making those contributions significantly more valuable (b) Do you really think that Maybin is on the verge of becoming a 5-6 WAR player? Because that’s what Braun is, and there’s a chance that he sustains the ~7 WAR production he’s thrown out there this season. It would take a substantial bump in offensive production for Maybin to hit that level of value, and he’s not likely to become significantly better as a fielder from here given that defensive skills typically peak before offensive ones.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Sep 25, 2011 9:01 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs

I agree that if all he was saying is that Maybin is coming on, he'd have a very good point.

But that’s not enough. He’s long been searching for a way to denigrate Braun and the Brewers selection of Braun. Here’s some quotes from BTC regarding Braun in the past:

"Enjoy him while he lasts Brewer fans. He’s no Robin Yount, he’s no Paul Molitor, and when he’s gone the Brewers and the city (not that having Braun helps this at al.) will go back to being the biggest dump in the NL Central.

Oh yeah, and Ryan, I’ll bring some kleenex for you the next time you feel like you’re being disrespected, after brushing the dirt off of your uniform as teh result of a high and inside fastball. Get used to it, you’re going to need a boatload of Kleenex this year for all the crying you will do."

And this:

"The fact of the matter is that if he continues his antics, fans of the game, whether they be Brewer fans or not, will start to lose respect for him, pitchers will continue to throw at him, and that within 30 years, the Brewers will for most of their lifetime will be a losing franchise, and the city of Milwaukee will be swallowed up by Chicago within 30 years."

This is not the product of rational thought. I’m not really sure why (though the login name provides a clue), but a lot of BTC’s sense of self-worth as a baseball commenter on SBN sites is very much tied to his ability to demonstrate that the Brewers organization do things the wrong way, and he’s got a lot of emotion tied up in the notion that they should never have taken Braun in 2005. And then he uses the word fan to denigrate those who disagree with him, in spite of his obvious emotional reactions when it comes to the Brewers in general, and Braun in particular.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 25, 2011 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions

From a time value of money/value standpoint this is correct

And I like what you did here, as well as what Cheeseandcorn does above.

I agree that Maybin will never hit as well as Braun has or ever will, but I do think that he could up up Frankyln Gutierrez/Andres Torres types of years (in their breakout seasons) for more than just one year, because he has a better bat than either of those two could dream of, and he has the speed/defensive ability. And as the articlie tries to point out, he is just in his age 24 season, where a lot of his hitting issues could very well come to light.

It all boils down to this: Was Torres’ 10 or Gutierrez’ 09, or Victorino’s 11 all elite type years? And then if so, if you compare them with any of Braun’s years before 2011, would they have not been more productive?

Its just a question of value from the bat versus overall value for me. And Braun did produce earlier as far as chronologically, but when it comes to age they arent horribly far apart. If Maybin can maintain the strides he has made this year, will he be in the 24/25 WAR range after his age 28 season? And then if so, can we then say he was just as good of a pick from the 2005 draft? The guy has 4 seasons to put up 17 WAR. Its a big feat, but not out of the realm of possibility.

by backtocali on Sep 25, 2011 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions

But Braun's hitting ability is far more sustainable

And you’re just totally missing the point of immediate and assured value. As of the moment, you can’t say that Maybin is remotely close to being an equal pick to Braun. Braun has actually accomplished those things; value that’s already been accrued with worth way more than a significant amount of value that won’t necessarily be produced.

Maybin might get hurt, or he might not get better. He might get worse. He hits the ball on the ground 55% of the time; that makes me think that he’ll be able to sustain the high BABIP, but I’m not sure that he’s going to hit for much power that way. Defense often peaks earlier than offense.

I already said that we can grant you that he’s a good pick. I think it’s unfair to argue that he’s a better pick than Braun; the Brewers already have a franchise cornerstone in hand that’s posted multiple All-Star seasons and an MVP-level season in 2011, the Padres have a young center fielder that just posted one All-Star level season. Maybin has a, say, 10% chance of being what Ryan Braun has been, given the health risks and everything.

Not to mention that you just dismissed one season. It’s not 4 seasons and 17 WAR. Really? Braun’s at 24.7 WAR in five years. Maybin’s got 6.5 in roughly two years worth of experience. He needs 18.2 WAR in 3 seasons. You think he’s got three straight 6-win seasons in him? It’s just really, really unlikely.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Sep 26, 2011 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

I get exactly what you are saying

Braun has performed and is now ending his age 28 season. That performance wont go away.

My point in this excersise was to show what the players from that draft, primarily Maybin were able to do through their age 24 season (or to state it in the way Chesse does above) what they have done early in their careers. And comparing by a certain age is the best way to show that.

You are correct about what could happen to Maybin between now and his age 28 season, but that could have been said of Braun or any of the college guys taken that year after the 2008 season.

From a scouting perspective, the guys who pushed to draft Maybin are pretty happy right now with how he has performed, and the potential they saw in him when drafted is still there to improve and perform.

The point hasnt been that Maybin would have been the better pick, its that he has turned out to be a good pick after all. And if the Brewers had drafted him in 2005, they wouldnt be feeling very bad about it. As mentioned in another post in the thread, all scouts and organizations miss on players. Four teams passed on Braun that year, and two of them probably regret it. But as my numbers above show, there are probably three additional players that were taken after him who may have even been better picks in Jay Bruce and Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutchen.

And the final point you make is correct too, Braun has that number in 5 years, but by the time he is the age that Braun is now, Maybin could have 6 years experience. Definitely more surplus value for Braun, and more WAR per year. Ive never said he was the better pick, I’m simply trying to state that there is the potential for him to be very close or nearly the same amount of value. I wont know the truth for another 4 years, but thats what scouting is about essentially, seeing what you think a guy could or will do that far out.

by backtocali on Sep 26, 2011 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions

"The point hasnt been that Maybin would have been the better pick, its that he has turned out to be a good pick after all."

You could do all of that without even saying Braun’s name, and that’s why you’re getting people bent out of shape.

If Maybin ends up providing as much WAR as Braun did over the same career slice, Braun will STILL end up being worth more to the Brewers franchise given how much sooner he made his contributions. And you don’t quite seem to be grasping how unlikely it is that Maybin not only stays healthy for four straight years, but gets better, too.

There’s a roughly 15% chance that Dustin Ackley turns out to be the next Chase Utley. Would you think that I was being unfair if I wrote an entire article purporting that we should applaud the Mariners because maybe they just found the next Utley but it’s pretty unlikely and we won’t know for four years? I would.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Sep 26, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions

I get it

But my response to the “sooner” argument, is that whoever has Maybin will get the production “later”, i.e. Brauns peak years are from 2011 through 2015, while Maybin (using your caveat here about health and maintainability) would be 2015 through 2019. In the end, if he does put up those numbers and they wind up with the same amount of WAR over that time, then there really isnt a difference. Comparing the two given age, is a pretty good way to compare the two players given they were in the same draft, unlike the Utley/Ackley reference above.

I also realize the chance that Maybin may not improve or stay healthy, but that can be said of any player. Braun has had a multitude of small little injuries over his career so far, and some believe that its only a matter of time until he gets that one big huge injury that puts a dent in his career trajectory. He has put up the 25 WAR in 5 seasons, so has Tulo, Zimmerman, Upton has a good shot as well, etc.

I’m not necessarily calling out Braun. I follow the Brewers, and when I focus on a guy on draft day, its for who I hope they draft that particular year. Braun has done wonders for them, and was a good pick, and if they had picked Maybin, right now they would be getting almost the equivalent of Brauns 2008 season, with 4 more years of team control. They went all in this year to win a pennant, and as my other post on that topic shows, going all in may not have even been necessary, and maybe even having Maybin instead of Braun wouldnt either. The playoff run in 08 would have been missed for sure though.

Perhaps the Brewers wouldnt have rushed Maybin like the Tigers and Marlins had, maybe his debut season would have been pretty dang impressive playing in a more hitter friendly environment.

I get exactly what you are saying. I get the people who have responded here bent out of shape because they are Brewer fans. Braun is simply the reference point here and 9 times out of the ones who are getting bent out of shape, are going to get bent out of shape over what I say because of the views I have held or expressed and there is a history there.

by backtocali on Sep 26, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

"In the end, if he does put up those numbers and they wind up with the same amount of WAR over that time, then there really isnt a difference"

Oh man, YES THERE IS. A win in 2011 is worth WAY more to a club than a win in 2017.

“Braun has had a multitude of small little injuries over his career so far, and some believe that its only a matter of time until he gets that one big huge injury that puts a dent in his career trajectory.”

Totally ridiculous. Braun has been totally healthy for like four years now, which makes him due to get hurt? What else is he supposed to do to prove his durability? There’s absolutely no reason to believe that Braun is more likely to get hurt than any other player with a strong track record of durability. Since becoming a full-time player in 2008, only two NL players have seen more PA’s.

“He has put up the 25 WAR in 5 seasons, so has Tulo, Zimmerman, Upton has a good shot as well, etc.”

You’re only hurting your argument. Tulowitzki, Zimmerman and Upton are three of the best players in the game. You’re only confirming that Braun has been an elite player. Do you really think that Maybin is more likely to hit 25 WAR in five years because Troy Tulowitzki did it, too?

“Braun has done wonders for them, and was a good pick, and if they had picked Maybin, right now they would be getting almost the equivalent of Brauns 2008 season, with 4 more years of team control.”

They also would’ve missed the playoffs in 2008, lost significant revenue and probably would be in a far worse position now. Getting into the playoffs in 2008 has been absolutely HUGE for Milwaukee’s revenue streams and fan support locally. None of that happens if you replace Braun with Maybin.

“I get exactly what you are saying. I get the people who have responded here bent out of shape because they are Brewer fans. Braun is simply the reference point here and 9 times out of the ones who are getting bent out of shape, are going to get bent out of shape over what I say because of the views I have held or expressed and there is a history there.”

I could care less about the Brewers, and I have no idea about your history. I still don’t really think that you’re being entirely fair here.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Sep 26, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs

+4

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton

by LaserVortex888 on Sep 26, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

"The point hasn't been that Maybin would have been the better pick"

People who might think my viewpoint on this issue is crazy (Brewers should have drafted Maybin in 05 instead of Braun)

"If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be." - Yogi Berra

by mnbrewer on Sep 26, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions

A List of Great Players; Also Cameron Maybin

Is what the title of this word pile should’ve been.

by John Good on Sep 26, 2011 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs

Huh?

Are you including Maybin, or excluding Maybin the the “great players” list?

His season this year puts him in an all star class of player. If he maintains it he puts himself in the same class as some of those players as well.

by backtocali on Sep 26, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions

you know, I have no horse in this race

I know almost nothing of your history or your history with others. I have no side to take.

I am mostly a lurker, haven’t connected much with anybody on this site, and while I really enjoy spending time on BCB and SBnation, I honestly don’t really give a shit about making internet friendships, etc. And though I am admittedly a Wisconsin raised Brewers and Braun fan, on a personal level, I have no bias whatsoever.

That being said, I have seldom seen anyone do such a fabulous imitation of a broken record. Your methodology and logic is consistently and glaringly flawed, you come across as a sneering, self-righteous my shit don’t stink kind of animal that has an unhealthy obsession with antagonizing Brewers fans. You remind me of an in over his head college student who thinks that using a bunch of big words and various numerical explanations will impress people so long as it’s jumbled and incoherent enough that no one can actually understand it.

How Cameron Maybin putting up half the WAR that Braun did this past season justifies your point, I have no clue. By all means, continue to vomit up words and make that thesaurus purchase pay for itself. But your presence is unpleasant and unwanted, so please go away.

by youngmanblues on Nov 2, 2011 9:33 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

And

You just glaringly showed your ignorance on the subject.

The third paragraph of your statement really just illustrates that if someone were to use “big words” etc, the only defense you have is that despite the fact that you cant understand what was being said, is to call it garbarge, vomit, etc.

Re-read the post and then maybe attempt to put up a reasonable response.

by backtocali on Nov 3, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions