Has Joe Mauer Peaked?
Now that Joe Mauer's season is most likely over (after only 333 plate appearances) , let's take a look at how it stacks up to his career and perhaps visually answer whether his best days might be behind him:
Let's get this out of the way: he had a bit of an unlucky year, but not his unluckiest.
2011 looks more like the average year for Mauer, with 2009 being the anomaly -- but this year is definitely his worst for his best skill (getting on base).
Isolating his falling walk rate really shows where Mauer has apparently peaked. But wait until you see this:
Warning: 2004 is SSS (only 122 PA). For reference, Mauer had 606 PA in 2009.
This is obviously the visual inverse of his BB%, but makes for a nice contrast against his ISO.
And take this with a grain of salt, since he's a catcher:
Don't forget playing time factors, but that should make Twins fan queasy (especially considering that $184M deal Mauer signed last season).
Obviously, Mauer is only 28, but if we take our Twins-colored-glasses off for a moment, we have to recognize what we know from various aging studies (including the WAR-related ones based on HOF members) that Joe should be peaking NOW. Like now now. I'm going to go out on an easy limb here and say that we've already seen his best, and we'll likely never see another 6+ WAR season from Mauer again. Perhaps his 5+ WAR days are behind him as well. That said, whether or not his HoF ticket gets punched is dependent on how long he can make his career last, even at a more modest production.
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2012
I think next year will be his last year to beat 6 WAR and I think he does. He will get even more starts at DH/1B or even 3B next year which will hurt his total value numbers.
However, I think he comes into 2012 with a lot to prove. He quickly turned from the most beloved sports star in Minnesota to an injury prone cry baby that won’t play hurt. A new conditioning program over the winter to get his legs back and he’ll have another offensive year like 2009….. hopefully….
It's certainly a reasonable position considering his position and his recent injury issues
But I agree with nick, I think it all comes down to conditioning. There’s a lot more fog with Mauer than there would be a different position player with his numbers, and more than there would be with a catcher without his numbers.
Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.
We all fall in love with good hitting catchers
and they so often disappoint. Mauer disappointed later than most.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
The trend line on the ISO graph
is just straight up not fair.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/
Agreed, and I knew it before I published.
It should exclude 2004. The result would show a much slower decline, but a decline nonetheless.
Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp
by Justin Bopp on Sep 21, 2011 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions






































