If the Season Ended Yesterday: Phillies Extend Lead

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While the Phillies remain the safest bet for the World Series, the streaking Tigers and Rays--as well as the slumping Red Sox and Rangers--are complicating the picture. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. More on the race for the Commissioner's Trophy after the jump.

Probability of Postseason Series Victory 9/12/2011
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LDS% LCS% WS% WS HFA
NYY 1 0.633 54.9% 31.7% 19.4% -0.7%
DET 2 0.579 43.0% 17.0% 8.4% -1.0%
TEX 3 0.616 45.1% 23.8% 13.7% -0.4%
BOS WC 0.623 57.0% 27.5% 16.3% -0.6%
PHI 1 0.624 66.7% 48.7% 25.7% 1.9%
ARI 2 0.514 49.4% 16.0% 4.7% 0.3%
MIL 3 0.542 33.3% 18.3% 6.4% 0.3%
ATL WC 0.525 50.6% 17.0% 5.4% 0.1%
AL 57.8% -2.7%
NL 42.2% 2.7%

Figures of Note:
  • The Phillies (WS 3:1) are confidently putting the Yankees (4:1) and Red Sox (6:1) in their rear view mirrors. 
  • The Brewers and Diamondbacks currently share identical records. If the Brewers were the 2-seed, and the Diamondbacks were third, Milwaukee would improve their NL Pennant chances by 1.8% and their World Series chances by 1%.
  • Conversely, the Diamondbacks pennant shot would sink by 3% and their World Series chances would decline by 0.9%
  • Without Boston in the way, the surging Tampa Bay Rays would have a 19.9% shot at the AL Pennant and a 10.3% shot at the World Series as a Wild Card contender.
  • Speaking of surges, the Tigers have nearly doubled their chances of winning the World Series over the previous two weeks, improving from 4.5% to 8.4%.
  • Without the Rangers in the way, the Angels would have a 12.2% shot at the AL Pennant and a 5.2% shot at the World Series as the AL's 3-seed.

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.

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