While the Phillies remain the safest bet for the World Series, the streaking Tigers and Rays--as well as the slumping Red Sox and Rangers--are complicating the picture. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. More on the race for the Commissioner's Trophy after the jump.
|Probability of Postseason Series Victory||9/12/2011|
- The Phillies (WS 3:1) are confidently putting the Yankees (4:1) and Red Sox (6:1) in their rear view mirrors.
- The Brewers and Diamondbacks currently share identical records. If the Brewers were the 2-seed, and the Diamondbacks were third, Milwaukee would improve their NL Pennant chances by 1.8% and their World Series chances by 1%.
- Conversely, the Diamondbacks pennant shot would sink by 3% and their World Series chances would decline by 0.9%
- Without Boston in the way, the surging Tampa Bay Rays would have a 19.9% shot at the AL Pennant and a 10.3% shot at the World Series as a Wild Card contender.
- Speaking of surges, the Tigers have nearly doubled their chances of winning the World Series over the previous two weeks, improving from 4.5% to 8.4%.
- Without the Rangers in the way, the Angels would have a 12.2% shot at the AL Pennant and a 5.2% shot at the World Series as the AL's 3-seed.
Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.