They're not quite out of it at the moment, but do you think the Rays would have liked a 5th Wild Card spot this year?
Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.
|1||Yankees||87||57||I'm not sure if Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia being 2nd and 3rd on the team in starter fWAR (2.5, 2.2) is good or bad.|
|2||Phillies||94||48||Cliff Lee has allowed a grand total of 3 earned runs in his last 55.2 IP (2 of them on one HR), with a 52-10 K/BB ratio.|
|3||Red Sox||85||60||Adrian Gonzalez only has 25 home runs this year - not what many expected leaving Petco - but still with a .409 wOBA.|
|4||Rangers||82||64||Texas' lead has dwindled to just 2.5 games, but their run differential is 90 runs better than LA's.|
|5||Brewers||85||62||Yuniesky Betancourt is still above replacement level, but it's going to be close at the finish (0.1 fWAR).|
|6||Rays||80||64||Jeremy Hellickson is posting a nice 2.96 ERA (despite a 4.30 FIP) largely on the strength of a .229 BABIP.|
|7||Tigers||83||62||Detroit went 49-43 while being outscored in the first half, but they're playing .642 ball after the break.|
|8||Cardinals||78||67||Two years and only $21 M for Chris Carpenter seems good, given he's averaging over 4.5 fWAR for '09-11.|
|9||Diamondbacks||85||61||Willie Bloomquist has received 340 PA for the team, and yet they hold an 8.5 game lead in the NL West. You can't explain that.|
|10||Angels||80||65||Dan Haren is having a quietly great season. He's even passed Jered Weaver in fWAR (up to 6.1).|
|11||Braves||84||62||Craig Kimbrel's record streak of appearances without allowing a run was just snapped at 38.|
|12||White Sox||73||71||Chris Sale (10 K/9, 3 BB/9, 50% GB%) has been like Matt Thorton #2 this year (10 K/9, 3 BB/9, 50% GB%).|
Jamey Carroll is the only qualified batter in the majors without a home this year; tied a career high with 5 triples though.
|14||Reds||71||74||It's only in part-time duty, but Ryan Hanigan has the best K/BB ratio in baseball for a catcher.|
|15||Blue Jays||73||73||Outside the AL East, no 3rd place team is above .500. The Jays are (now), and are in 4th.|
|16||Mets||71||74||RA Dickey as a Met in 2010 and 2011; 361.1 IP of 3.16 ERA ball (FIP ~3.78, xFIP ~3.86). Looking forward to him sitting on 199 wins.
|17||Rockies||68||77||The Colorado pitching staff led the majors in fWAR for 2009-10, but is down to just 19th this year.|
|18||Athletics||66||79||Brandon McCarthy has improved his control enough to post the 4th best BB/9 (1.4) in baseball.|
Tim Lincecum (3.13) is behind both Madinson Bumgarner (2.70) Matt Cain (2.87) in FIP - and he's 10th in the NL.
|20||Marlins||65||79||Gaby Sanchez has built on a nice rookie season by upping his walk rate to over 11% - his fWAR's up from 2.3 to 3.0 already.
|21||Indians||71||72||Matt LaPorta has been called back up to the majors, where he has yet to post an even average offensive season.|
|22||Royals||61||86||In the AL Central, only Chicago (6) has more pitchers with at least 2.1 fWAR than Kansas City (3).|
|23||Padres||62||84||Orlando Hudson is 73rd in the majors in triples this year, which is more relevant if you saw his Intentional Talk segment.|
|24||Nationals||66||77||For pitchers with at least 50 IP, Tyler Clippard has the highest LOB% in the majors this year at 94.4%.|
|25||Cubs||63||82||Starlin Castro leads the NL in hits with 186. He's only 39th (of 68 qualified batters) with a .336 OBP.|
|26||Mariners||61||84||This is the first season of Felix Hernandez's career in which his groundball rate is under 52%.|
|27||Pirates||66||79||Pittsburgh has/had 4 players with over 200 PA and below 0 fWAR this year (M. Diaz, X. Paul, P. Alvarez, L. Overbay).|
|28||Orioles||58||86||The O's staff has the worst FIP in the majors (4.65), and they're further from 29th place than 29th is from 23rd.|
|29||Astros||49||96||JA Happ is 5-15 with a 5.77 ERA, but at least his xFIP is only 4.63. He's 4th on the team in innings pitched.|
|30||Twins||59||86||Joe Mauer is up to 3 home runs now this year, and has his bat up to league average (100 wRC+).|