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Cheap Wins vs. Tough Losses

Cheap-wins_medium

Last week, I posted a graphic about Tough Losses. In that graphic, I used a slightly more strict version of the Quality Start (mine was 7+ IP with 3 or less ER). A logical next step for that was to research "Cheap Wins". I found it problematic to use IP and ER to determine that list, however. The longer a pitcher throws, he offsets the damage an earned run causes. It was tough to find one search that did the trick for me. So, I looked for something else. I turned to Game Score.

The above graphic shows the most wins since 1919 with a Game Score less than or equal to 50. If you're not familiar with Game Score, 50 is actually the number you start with. You can add or subtract to that score by finishing innings and striking players out (good) or allowing runs and walking people (bad). 

Star-divide

LIke my IP/ER combination before it, Game Score is problematic because it is not part or era adjusted. Kenny Rogers, for example, has the double whammy of pitching in Texas and pitching the steroid era. Our friend Jack Morris, on the other hand, doesn't have much of an excuse.

No matter how I tried to search for cheap wins, Earl Whitehill nearly always came back at the top of the list. Considering his comparatively modest win total of 218, that was surprising. But he played during the offensive explosion of the Ruth era and clearly had some good luck, too (.541 winning pct. vs. 100 ERA+).

Greg Maddux makes this list, mostly because he recored one million wins in his career. Some were bound to be cheap. His 12.4% is actually pretty low. Jeff Suppan, on the other hand, has posted a Game Score of 50 or less in over 30% of his career wins. 

How does the Tough Losses list look if you use Game Score? In order to normalize the list a bit, I searched for a Game Score that would yield a leader similar to our Cheap Wins graph. I picked 65 as the baseline for Tough Losses because the leader suffered through 57 of those losses:

Tough-losses_medium

It is amazing how often Nolan Ryan and Gaylord Perry were victimized. Part of it is era, of course. But Bob Gibson's total is most certainly era-aided, and Ryan and Perry still trump him. The top three on my previous graph (Ryan, Perry, and Robin Roberts) all appear in the top six here, so the lists are fairly similar.

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Home Sweet Home

Jun 2008 by Peter Bendix - 4 comments

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Since the start of 2009...

I’m surprised to see that Felix is tied with 16 other players with only 3 losses with game scores of 65+.

Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, A.J. Burnett (?!), and Chad Billingsley all have four each.
James Shields and Cole Hamels have five each.

Ubaldo Jimenez has SIX.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Aug 9, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

No decisions, on the other hand...

Also since start of 2009:

Kershaw with 13
Felix with 12
Haren with 11
Weaver, Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson with 9

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by adarowski on Aug 9, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which of course got me thinking about no decisions with 65+ game score since 1919...

Roger Clemens 53
Nolan Ryan 51
Greg Maddux 47
Don Sutton 46
Randy Johnson 42
Tom Seaver 37
Pedro Martinez 34
Tommy John 34
Kevin Brown 31
Bert Blyleven 29

(Perry has 25 while Roberts only had 13… after all, real men didn’t get no-decisions.)

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Aug 9, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Relief Appearances

Remember relief appearances. It’s small, but has a little impact, esp. when you’re comparing Nolan Ryan/Gaylord Perry/Bob Gibson.

Ryan, Perry, Gibson all got tagged for losses in relief, and B-R does not give a Game Score for pitching in relief. Gibson only lost 4 in relief, Ryan just 1, but Perry was tagged with 13 losses in relief. More than halves the gap between Ryan and Perry’s %.

by themiddle54 on Aug 9, 2011 1:03 PM EDT reply actions  

No adjustment for league?

These guys mostly pitched 1993 or later, or back in the 1930’s. The ones with tough losses pitched mostly in the 60’s and 70’s.

The stat tells more about the environment they pitched in than their relative luck.

"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.

by RallyMonkey5 on Aug 9, 2011 1:58 PM EDT reply actions  

I've been thinking about how to handle that...

Almost wondering if the Game Score itself could use an adjustment.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Aug 9, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Game Score

GS is a challenge extraordinarily flawed, since not all GSs are created equal. The points it allows are not scaled properly to the real value of baseball events.

Gio Gonzalez, 8/1/10: 8 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 1 HBP – Game Score = 65
Kevin Millwood 4/11/10: 7.2IP, 1ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K, 3 HR, 0 HBP – Game Score = 65

Gio threw a gem and got bad luck/defensive support. Millwood was, well, Millwood, giving up three homers, but only one of his 4 runs were earned and an awful lot of balls were put in play and converted to outs by his defense. There have been, since Opening Day 2010, 180 games w/ a GS of 180, and these are the two extremes, with a lot of varying quality in between.

by themiddle54 on Aug 9, 2011 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

oops....

No, type. There have been 180 games with a GS of exactly 65. Sorry.

by themiddle54 on Aug 9, 2011 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

An easy way

would be to just put an adjustment based on season – add 5 for pitching in 1930, subtract 5 for 1968, or whatever the average game score works out to.

As pointed out by others, game score ignoring unearned runs should be fixed if you have the data.

"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.

by RallyMonkey5 on Aug 9, 2011 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

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