Good morning! Today's sabersphere links include a Lucas Apostoleris appearance over at FG (give him a big congrats!), a great breakdown of the NL East by Michael Jong, an exercise in game theory by MGL, and Jonah going Jonah over at Grantland. Enjoy!
Contemplating A.J. Burnett, Relief Pitcher - FanGraphs Baseball
After his disastrous nine-run outing against the Orioles on Friday, his August ERA is now at a tick under 12 and his FIP has been at 5.50 for the month. His normalized 4.16 xFIP is more reasonable, telling us that opponents have been smacking homers off of him at (probably) an unsustainable rate. So yes, he’s probably seeing some bad luck, but he’s still been pitching quite poorly.
500 Career Games With AB < 5 Times RBI - Baseball-Reference Blog
How many batters have at least 500 career games and, during their career, have their AB totals be less than 5 times their career RBI?
Divide and Conquer, NL East: The September Stretch - Baseball Prospectus
...the other three NL East teams are not going anywhere after September; they will be packing it up for the long winter months and awaiting the 2012 season. So what do these teams have to look forward to as they approach the last month of the 2011 season?
When sabermetric teams go wrong! - The Book
"So given the hole at SS, the count, the favorable platoon matchup, and the fact that OAK was the visiting team, I don’t believe that a bunt can even be close to being correct, ever, even when considering game theory."
NL Central: Brew Crew cruising - The Hardball Times
The Brewers have gone nuts, blowing away expectations. The Reds and the Cardinals both fell short of the forecast (and out of the race), while the Bucs were just about as bad as expected. The Cubs matched expectations better than any of the six, while the woeful Astros have actually gone well below their forecast.
Jonah Keri on the improbable success of the Los Angeles Angels - Grantland
Two (possible) answers to the mystery that has puzzled statheads for more than a decade.
Where Chipper ranks among all-time 3B - SweetSpot Blog
If you’re an Atlanta Braves fan, maybe you remember the rookie Bobby Cox entrusted to hit third in the lineup in the 1995 World Series. Or maybe...
Lewis's Home Field Disadvantage - Baseball Analytics Blog - MLB Baseball Analytics
Colby Lewis of the Texas Rangers allowed twice as many home runs at home than on the road so far in 2011. Is the park really that much of a disadvantage to Lewis, or does his pitching approach hurt him there?