It's Time to be a GM and Protect Your Players: NL West version
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 25, 2011 2:10 PM EDT
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PrintHave you ever dreamed of becoming a MLB GM?
How about the GM of all 30 teams?
Over the next week or two, I will posting a real life fantasy scenario where you all will get that chance.
Here is your scenario:
There is a new expansion draft format and for one day you get to be a GM of all 30 teams. Here's the catch; you can only protect three players from each organization (sorry not 15, then 3 more, etc., that would take way too long). You get the player as is with his current contract (it makes things more interesting). Keep in mind each teams financial statuses.
Today's version: NL West
Much much more after the jump.
Diamondbacks protect: Justin Upton, Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy
Analysis: I think this was a fairly easy group to select.
Dodgers protect: Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp, Dee Gordon
Analysis: The first two were easy and the Dodgers are going to need some young talent like Dee Gordon in the future. I wanted to go with Andre Ethier, but I just couldn't do it.
Giants protect: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Buster Posey
Analysis: No questions here.
Padres protect: Mat Latos, Casey Kelly, Cameron Maybin
Analysis: Honestly, I have no idea here. I like what Mat Latos did a year ago, but he does not seem like the same pitcher. Maybin has turned it up lately, but I still do not see a franchise player with the Padres. Padre fans help me out please.
Rockies protect: Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez Jhoulys Chacin
Analysis: Again, the first two were easy, but I went out on a limb for the third. Chacin has youth and can pitch which the Rockies are sorely lacking.
Critique away.
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I agree mostly with what you have chosen here
Except with the Dodgers I would not protect Kemp, as he is going to be an FA in two years and due a tremendous raise next year in arby. I mean if you could lock him up long term at a franchise friendly deal yes, but if not trade for a huge prospect package. In lieu of him I would protect Ruddy de la Rosa.
And with the Giants I would do the same thing as above with Cain, and instead hold onto Brandon Belt.
And I am assuming you are allowing prospects on the list given you have Kelly under the Padres. Love the other two choices, but if it were existing roster guys only with prospects protected I would take Chase Headley.
I included prospects
that’s why I said you can protect 3 organizational players.
I think if the Dodgers are going to spend money, who else better than to spend it on their MVP candidate CFer. He loves LA and provides just so much value to the Dodgers that I just cannot see them letting him go. However, de la Rosa was on the bubble for me.
The Giants will pay Cain because they know that great starting pitching wins world championships. Front line pitching is the hardest to acquire (as compared to 1B/OF type players).
I wanted to protect Headley, but the Padres need to rebuild and will need some young starting pitching like Casey Kelly.
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 25, 2011 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing is
If you get rid of all the other crap in L.A. (Lilly, Loney, et al), you can build a win-now club around Kemp, Kershaw, and a young part like Gordon. If anything, I’d debate whether it’s wise to keep Gordon over RDLR, but shortstops don’t grow on trees so Dee is probably the right choice.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 21, 2011 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd take Dee now
There’s more immediate value because Rubby should miss most of next season. I’d rather have the high-upside shortstop with health than the possible ace/closer that recently had TJS.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Sep 22, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
Rubby’s health is a big question mark athough I do love the potential there. Right now I am protecting Gordon.
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Sep 22, 2011 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with pretty much everything here.
The Padre’s players aren’t even the same quality players as the rest of the division IMO.
+1
I would not keep Kelly as he has been nothing special this season.
Not sure why anyone would NOT keep Kemp for LAD.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 25, 2011 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Who would you keep then?
Chase Headley?
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 25, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
i might let cain go and keep bumgarner
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
2012: get ready for White Pomz!
I thought about that
more team control, cheaper, younger. I wouldn’t complain.
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 26, 2011 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I would.
Bumgarner isn’t as good as Cain, but I’d much rather have a few cheap years of Bumgarner than one year of Cain at $15M.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Sep 1, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
bumgarner isn't as good as cain? since when?
pitcher a/pitcher b
FIP: 2.72/2.77
xFIP: 3.17/3.59
K/BB: 3.83/3.35
tERA: 3.24/3.18
SIERA: 3.15/3.49
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
2012: get ready for White Pomz!
Because Cain continues to show that the metrics don't deal with him well
SIERA: 4.17
xFIP: 4.24
FIP: 3.69
ERA: 3.37
Once you’re talking about nearly 1300 innings, and that’s where we’re at with Cain, you always take ERA over any other metric. Over that much time, the kinds of “lucky” things that affect ERA in smaller sample sizes tend to even out.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Sep 1, 2011 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
Matt Cain has thrown plenty of innings for the lucky/unlucky things about baseball to even out over time. Bumgarner has not. In this case, as Satchel said, we don’t need the advanced baseball metrics to help us.
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Sep 1, 2011 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Once you’re talking about nearly 1300 innings, and that’s where we’re at with Cain, you always take ERA over any other metric.
ummm… what? since when is this a principle of sabermetrics? but whatever, even just looking at ERA, bumgarner’s career 3.21 is better than cain’s career 3.37. and even this season, their ERA differences boil down to 60 points of BABIP difference.
bumgarner’s career numbers through his ~300 MLB IP, disregarding his elite MiLB numbers, are WAY better than cain’s were through that point of his own career.
also don’t forget cain’s reliance on HR/FB wizardry (which i do believe is real and not just luck) vs bumgarner’s more even GO/AO profile.
AND he’s 5 years younger; give me the kid.
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
2012: get ready for White Pomz!
I mean, I said give me Bumgarner
But Cain has been the better pitcher so far.
Sabermetrics is about nothing else but seeking objective truths, and essentially every person with an appreciation for sabermetrics will tell you that ERA is the best metric once you get passed a certain threshold of sample size. 1300 innings is a massive sample stretching over a half a decade. Metrics like SIERA and xFIP work to remove things perceived as “luck” within small sample sizes, but once the sample gets large enough those kinds of lucky things can no longer be considered lucky.
When Cain puts up a 5-8% HR/FB in one year, or even two years, you can bank it up to luck. But 6 consecutive years is a clear indication that his HR/FB hasn’t simply been a result of luck. As for his BABIP, Cain has also clearly proven that he’s among that peculiar class of pitchers that is capable of sustaining a below-average BABIP.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Sep 2, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
oh yeah, i'm a full subscriber
to the school that matt cain has some devil powers over batted balls that mortals cannot ordinarily achieve
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
2012: get ready for White Pomz!
Dark magic, devil powers, whatever.
Matt Cain is doing something that’s specific to him that keeps his HR/FB and BABIP down. He’s doing something to induce weaker contact than other pitchers.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Sep 4, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually...
Satchel’s arguments have statistical backing (And I mean academic statistical theory, not statistics based on sports).
Since this relates to the Giants' picks specifically...
…I’d pick (in order) Bumgarner, Posey, and Cain. And yes, I realize that Lincecum isn’t on my list. Going forward, I fear he will demand a much higher contract than Cain and MadBum, while being a more likely candidate to suffer from off-kilter mechanics or plain old injury.
Free Brandon Crawford!
Makes sense to me.
If you don’t think the talent difference between Lincecum and Cain is as large as the presumed difference between what they’ll get paid, I can see taking Cain.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Sep 13, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Arizona: Upton, Kennedy, Goldschmit
San diego: Latos, Maybin, Rizzo
Dodge:rs: Gordon, Kemp, Kershaw
Giants: Lincecum, cain, Posey
Colorado: Gonzalez, tulo,Pomeranz:
Pomeranz is a very good looking prospect.
Even if Goldschmidt were prospect eligible
And this was pick any three prospects, he wouldn’t be one of the three (Bauer, Skaggs, Parker, & Archie Bradley).
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 21, 2011 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Also agreed
There is no way Goldschmidt makes it unless I protect 10 people.
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Sep 23, 2011 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Sep 23, 2011 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
For the Giants
I think I’d take Posey, Sandoval and Bumgarner to be honest. Cain and Lincecum are about to get rich, and I wouldn’t shock me if Bumgarner surpasses both soon enough.
That is cray-z.
I was thinking exactly this.
Sandoval’s about to go into Arb1, and Bumgarner is a minimum guy. More control, cheaper, and still freaking awesome. Given how obese he is, people also forget how young Pablo is – dude’s bat could keep trending up.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 21, 2011 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Is Sandoval really worth
Losing Cain and/or Lincecum?
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Sep 23, 2011 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
In terms of value, with contracts, maybe.
Position players are often worth more, and those two will cost a premium. If you’re buying Sandoval as an elite player long-term, I get it.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Sep 23, 2011 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Hmmm...
Arizona – no qualms, you made the right picks.
Dodgers – no qualms again, Ethier doesn’t belong & I’ll take Gordon over RDLR for now.
Giants – As mentioned in my reply to DrDC above, I’ll take Sandoval and Bumgarner over Lincecum and Cain. Control & salaries too different here.
Padres – Simon Castro over Kelly for me.
Rockies – Tulo’s deal is palatable, CarGo’s isn’t IMO. Which is a shame, because he was so affordable before the contract. I’d go with Pomeranz & Jhoulys.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 21, 2011 11:22 PM EDT reply actions
I think CarGo's deal is fairly reasonable, even if it was a tad unnecessary for the time. He's been getting better.
He’s hitting .316/.386/.593 since May 10.
His K/BB marks are much improved: walk rate is up from 6.3% to 8.9%, strikeout rate is down from 21.2% to 19.4%.
He’s maintained a league-average OPS away from Coors despite seeing his away BABIP drop nearly 100 points. Not to mention that Coors home/road splits are totally screwed up; players are forced to adjust to Coors (the altitude), which makes them even worse away from home. Look at Matt Holliday; great players will be great players regardless of Coors.
I think I’d probably rather have Pomeranz, too, given that CarGo is about to get into the progressively more expensive phase of his contract, but he’s a great player and shouldn’t be a liability to Colorado for a few years at least.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Sep 22, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
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