Morning After Roster Manipulation - 2011 Milwaukee Brewers
by backtocali on Aug 24, 2011 11:27 AM EDT
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The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers have been on an incredible run this past month, going 24-4 in their last 28 games, and have a 10 game lead in the NL Central coming into the final month of the season. Coming into the season GM Doug Melvin traded away the bulk of the organization's best prospects to shore up his pitching staff by sending SS Alcides Escobar, CF Lorenzo Cain and Pitchers Jake Odirizzi and Jeremy Jeffress to the Kansas City Royals for Zack Greinke, and also sending now 3B prospect Brett Lawrie to the Toronto Blue Jays for Shaun Marcum. But did they really need to make these trades to get where they are right now?
Melvin felt the need to make these moves not knowing that Adam Wainwright would go down for the season in Spring Training, or that the Cardinals would have every key producer on the roster lose time on the DL, or that Edinson Volquez, and the entire Reds pitching staff would implode.
But what if he had followed the smart small market model, and keep the future in focus at all times, and made smart moves to acquire talent to fill gaps, and traded away FA approaching players for prospects, instead of depleting his farm system down to a 30th ranked system in the league in moves intended to go "all in" for a 2011 playoff push?
Two assumptions are being made here, which arent too far from actuality, given that talks were ongoing to acquire the players mentioned, or were reported targets, of the organization, in order for this scenario to work. The first involves the Brewers having traded Prince Fielder prior to the deadline in 2010 to the Chicago White Sox for Daniel Hudson (this deal was reportedly in the works until Melvin demanded that Gordon Beckham also be included in the deal) and 1B/3B prospect Davan Viciedo (who was a more realistic expectation in a return for Fielder if you are the White Sox with Hudson as the main piece). And the second assumption is that if no Greinke or Marcum trade had occured, they most likely would have gone out and acquired Carl Pavano as a free agent. (This was also a reported acquisition target for the Brewers during last year's off season).
Those who have read previous fan posts of mine will know how much I love to use WAR. I am aware the in a vacuum, WAR can be a great tool for player evaluation, but that the games arent played in a vacuum or on paper, and that the games actually have to be played. So here is a comparison of what the Brewers roster (starters only) have curently produced vs. "what may have been":
- Catcher, Jonathan Lucroy, 2.0 WAR
- First Base, Prince Fielder, 4.2 WAR vs Corey Hart 2.7 WAR
- Second Base, Rickie Weeks, 3.8 WAR
- Shortstop, Yuniesky Betancourt, 0.1 WAR vs Alcides Escobar 1.5 WAR
- Third Base, Casey McGehee, 0.6 WAR
- Left Field, Ryan Braun, 6.0 WAR
- Center/Right Field, Nyjer Morgan, 2.9 WAR vs (MiEquivalency projected) Lorenzo Cain, 1.5 WAR
- Starting Pitcher, Zack Greinke, 2.9 WAR vs Daniel Hudson, 4.0 WAR
- Starting Pitcher, Yovanni Gallardo, 2.7 WAR
- Starting Pitcher, Shaun Marcum, 2.4 WAR vs Carl Pavano, 2 WAR
- Starting Pitcher, Randy Wolf, 1.4 WAR
- Starting Pitcher, Chris Narveson, 1.9 WAR
The current roster (starters only) boasts a 33.3 WAR production this season. The "what if" scenario would have produced 33 WAR. On top of this, the team would have approximately $25 million extra in payroll dollars saved, and instead of having the worst farm system in baseball, would still have Jake Odirizzi, Brett Lawrie and perhaps Davan Viciedo as well. Add to it that Escobar, Cain and Hudson all would have 5 years of cheap, team control available to them.
You could say hindsight is 20/20, and this is true, especially if you had the 20/20 vision in July of last year as I did. Doug Melvin will most likely be lauded for the moves he made last offseason and for the short term gain that will most likely be awarded in October of this year, but shouldnt there be something to be said about the fact that the deal he didnt pull off last July, could have made the team more profitable and equally successful?
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you really just can't muster a true compliment about the brewers, can you?
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
2012: get ready for White Pomz!
Not quite true
I would say that if they could be as good as they are now without having traded the farm away, and have a bright long term outlook, thats more of a compliment, than just being fine with what they did this year.
I woulc much rather see long term success for the franchise, building from within, drafting well, trading well. The scenario above was a very possible one, and look where they could be right now if they had done it. 3 big time prospects, and extra $25 million in the bank, and good cheap affordable talent for the next 5 years versus a horrible farm system a $90 million payroll (where the team is barely breaking even, even with the great attendance) and a very bleak future after next year.
There are just too many variables to
just replace players that are now on other teams and say they can be performing just as well in Milwaukee.
Isn’t Corey Hart on the team now?
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 25, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
But WAR is supposed to be a good vacuum type tool. Whereas 6 WAR from Braun as a Brewer should equate to 6 WAR as a Yankee. This being said, Hudson and Pavano replacing Greinke and Marcum and then Escobar and Cain for Fielder and Betancourt, works, if you believe in the theory.
Corey Hart is a Brewer now, and in the “what if”, his WAR is added up as a 1B not a RF, of course this changes his value, but it doesnt drastically alter the results generated.
My whole theory is that if they had dealt Fielder for Hudson and Viciedo, which had been reported as a possible deal (Vicideo added in lieu of Beckham) and signed Pavano, they save a ton of money in payroll, farm system actually improves, and the team on the field right now is just as good as the one that could have been, and you have a much better long term view. I am not a fan at all of the once and done philosophy, would much rather see a long term committment made.
so many what ifs
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 25, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Newsflash:
You’re not a GM. You don’t know what was close to becoming reality, and forgive me because I know you’ll find this shocking, your valuation of players is not infallible.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 25, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Nice read.
Much rather have Prince Fielder than Dunn on the South Side right now. It’s hard to believe that a team has less prospects that a Chicago baseball team. The Brewers really depleted their farm in the past year and a half.
Who wouldn't want to have Prince over Dunn right now
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 25, 2011 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there a reason Carlos Gomez isn't part of this analysis?
Because without accounting for him, you’re comparing apples to oranges between Morgan and Cain. Cain has amassed his 1.5 MLE WAR in 509 PAs, but Morgan’s only taken 320 PAs to rack up his 2.9 WAR. If you’re going to do a true comparison, you have to compare Cain to Morgan + Gomez, which gives you 1.5 WAR vs. 4.6 WAR.
by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 26, 2011 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Also, you're missing Corey Hart from the real-life Brewers
Which would be 2.7 WAR vs. whatever a replacement-level right fielder would put up – let’s say 0.5 WAR, to be generous. So between that and the Carlos Gomez omission, that’s already approximately 4 WAR you’ve shorted the real-life Brewers.
by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 26, 2011 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
No I didnt account for Gomez
But with him or without him (as a RF) the difference in results is still less than half a win.
I had it all written on paper where I had one column of guys in the what if, one column of current and one column of both….and Hart was in the both column. The big differences come from If you take away Fielder,Greineke, Marcum and Betancourt you have to replace 9.6 WAR and that gets swallowed up mostly by Escobar and Cain’s 1.5 (3 total) Hudsons 4, and Pavano’s 2 to get you to 9 WAR.
I wish I knew how to post a mini table on these things, it would be revealed if that were done…..
Why the heck would anyone use Carlos Gomez as a right fielder?
by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 26, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
CF/RF doesnt really hurt his value
Yeah hes a great CF defensively and has a good arm and maximizes value there, the point is that he’s still on the team, and in worst case, Cain becomes the RF. And at worst it only diminishes his value by a half win or so.
In the end a 1.1 WAR RF Cain, added into the “What if” scenario results in a team that is just as good as this years team, or maybe a win less.
People thought Hudson was a #4/reliever, #3 at best
Nobody saw this coming, and refusing to trade an All-Star 1B for that guy isn’t something that can be argued with, really. Emptying out the farm for a playoff run is a great use of said farm, regardless of expected surplus values and whatnot.
Just imagine if Melvin had gotten Beckham over Viciedo, anyways. Beckham and McGehee would create the most craptastic 3B platoon of all time. I think Chart stays in the OF and someone like Gamel has to play first, and who knows how that would work out. Hard to say that everything would be just fine for Milwaukee w/o those moves.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 22, 2011 4:17 PM EDT reply actions
Hudson was projected as a #3
But a solid #3 starting pitching prospect and another nice prospect for one year of a $16 million Fielder is a very good return.
The reason the deal didnt go down was because DM overvalued Fielder and was asking for a guy in Beckham, who at the time had more value alone than Fielder did, as well as Hudson.
And you could state that “nobody saw this coming”, except that I did. I didnt foresee a 4 WAR season for Hudson, but I thought he was a good pick up for Fielder along with another prospect. And the moves that Melvin made would have only been a good move to make a playoff run, if he were dealing from a position of strength, as he did in 08 when he sent LaPorta to the Indians for Sabathia.
At that time Braun, Fielder and Weeks were still under team control for a few more years, they had a pipeline of about 3 or 4 impact prospects on the way, and it was a gamble worth taking. The difference this time around is that it completely obliterated the farm system of any discernable impact talent, and after next year the team is going to be in really bad shape for quite a long time. And the whole point of the post is that withouth the decimation of the farm system, the team would still be playoff bound this year.
I'll just say one thing here
The drop from Fielder-Hart-Morgan in 1B-RF-CF to Hart-Morgan-Gomez in those spots is pretty big. Probably around 6 wins or so, at least.
The funny thing, though, is that I don’t necessarily disagree with you. I don’t think that it’s entirely unfair to argue that the Brewers would be in an even better position now if they had traded Fielder last year.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Sep 25, 2011 8:48 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
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