Comparing Active Pitchers to the .300 BABIP Standard

by Jacob Peterson on Aug 21, 2011 10:00 AM EDT in Visuals Above Replacement

Imagine an alternate universe in which every pitcher allows exactly a .300 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Then compare that universe to this one. Which pitchers have gained the most from existing in our universe rather than this other, more communistic universe?

I found 7 active pitchers who had allowed at least 100 fewer hits over the course of their careers compared to the .300 BABIP standard:

Tim Wakefield should be no surprise at the top of the list; he's pitched forever, and knuckleballers are the most well-documented exception to the .300 BABIP rule.

Perhaps the most impressive pitcher on the list is Mariano Rivera, who has pitched many fewer innings than the guys ahead of him. Over his career, he's allowed 12% fewer hits on balls in play than one would expect based on a .300 BABIP, easily the highest percentage of any active pitcher with at least 1000 IP. Second on that percentage list is Matt Cain, with 10% fewer hits in play.

In case you are curious, the active leader on the other end of the spectrum is Livan Hernandez, who has allowed 108 more hits in his career than one would expect based on a .300 BABIP. Close on Livan's heels is Zach Duke, who has allowed 101 more hits than expected (despite pitching one-third of Livan's innings) thanks to an astronomical .329 BABIP.

Tweet Comment 10 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Is there any quick and easy way to find out the caliber of the defenses these pitchers played with?

by chriti04 on Aug 21, 2011 10:10 AM EDT reply actions

Pitcher BABIP

Also important, check out the batted ball profiles of these pitchers. More ground balls generally leads to more hits (most being singles), while more fly balls leads to fewer hits overall, but more of those result in 2Bs and 3Bs, not counting those that become HRs, because HR isn’t included in BABIP. Line drives fall for hits over half the time, so more line drives is just bad for your BABIP, period.

Jacob Smith
Email: blasek0@gmail.com
Twitter: JTD_Smith

by Jacob T Smith on Aug 21, 2011 10:54 AM EDT reply actions

but if there were two pitchers with the exact same batter ball profile they could still have different pitcher BABIPs because they play in front of different defenses. i’m wondering if any of these guys played in front of above average defenses their whole careers.

by chriti04 on Aug 21, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Defenses

I agree with you on defensive quality, but pitcher batted ball profile is a HUGE factor in career BABIP. The Giants have hardly fielded a spectacular defense, yet Matt Cain has a career .266 BABIP. Huge park helps him, but .266 is still 34 points under 300, and we’re 1270 innings into his career.

Jacob Smith
Email: jts0007@gmail.com
Twitter: JTD_Smith

by Jacob T Smith on Aug 21, 2011 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions