Don't Skip the Basics

by JD Sussman on Aug 2, 2011 8:30 AM EDT in Opinion & Editorial

A few weekends ago, I was lucky enough to catch a Marlins' broadcast while vacationing in the Sunshine state. Typically, I make an effort to drown out television analysts but outside of turning off the television, I couldn't avoid the large chart displayed. The Marlins' production team was attempting to illustrate how valuable Mets' MVP candidate Jose Reyes was by showing him atop the NL Wins Above Replacement (WAR) leaderboard. While some may see this graphic as progress for baseball geeks everywhere, I have to disagree.

Wins Above Replacement is a fantastic construct. If you're visiting Beyond the Box score you probably know that. But, you also know that it comes in various forms across the internet, and each is not perfect. [1]. We know that. But, Michael Jong and I were probably the only two of the eleven total viewers who had anyway idea what a Win Above Replacement is. [2].

Look, WAR is shiny. It puts a ton of information into one number. But, that number is meaningless to one who does not understand the various components or does not have an inkling of how they are calculated. [3]. Why start with SABR501?[4].

Before geeks can thrust Runs Created upon the average fan, we need them to embrace the virtues of OBP. Understand the importance of every out. Without this basic foundation, the main stream media's use of WAR may be met with something worse than fear and confusion.

Misuse.

JD Sussman is full time law student and co-founder of Bullpen Banter. He can be reached at JDSussman@bullpenbanter.com or via twitter.

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[1] Don't forget Baseball Prospectus' WARP. Same construct, different name.

[2] I would just like to add, after showing this chart the announcer decided to play the geeks vs. nerds/mothers' basement card.

[3] Did the broadcast denote which WAR they were using? Nope.

[4] This MAY be an overstatement, but consider the "replacement level" baseball fan's understanding. It's Batting Average, Home Runs, and RBI.

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JD, love the piece

But I am going to disagree slightly.

I do think it can be dangerous for complex concepts that aren’t widely understood to be thrust upon the general fan base, but in many cases this is the way to actually expose the common fan to new concepts.

Think about the role that ESPN played in bringing OBP, SLG, and OPS to the forefront. Granted, those concepts are far from being part of the lexicon in the same way that batting average and RBI’s are, but they’ve come a long way.

Baseball Tonight has been showing WAR (assuming its fWAR) as well as FIP on their broadcasts. Sure, it’s going to go over the average fan’s head, but the exposure to the concepts from the main stream sports broadcaster helps to make the terms less foreign and potentially more accessible.

I get your point about sequencing, but I also think to some extent the main stream exposure will help to generate interest and greater acceptance down the road.

Columnist at Beyond the Box Score. Contributor at Amazin' Avenue.

by Bill Petti on Aug 2, 2011 10:50 AM EDT reply actions

Caveat

JD says we should start at the beginning, which I think ESPN has helped out a lot in that respect. But at least in terms of the Marlins broadcasts, there’s no way you can randomly throw out WAR/P and expect the viewers to understand. In that medium, all they have is AVG/HR/RBI, it’s the only thing that’s ever discussed in the graphics or by the announcers. OBP is occasionally thrown out there. Rich Waltz regularly refers to OPS in terms of “sabermetric stats.” The audience that watches Marlins broadcasts has been exposed to none of the beginning concepts that ESPN viewers have seen on Baseball Tonight.

I love that ESPN’s partnership with FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus has gotten advanced stats on the board. But they’ve laid the groundwork first. I might enjoy seeing WAR/P referenced on a Marlins game, an I might think of it as progress, but as JD says, if only he and I are listening, is anything really being done?

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Writer, Beyond the Box Score
Writer, Heater Magazine

by SFiercex4 on Aug 2, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

RE

Right, Mike. I also think there is a difference between ESPN using it online in the insider content and throwing it on SportsCenter or Baseball Tonight. The producers/editors need to be aware of the audience and I assume those two audiences are much different.

With that said… Bill, what exactly would people be accepting by being exposed to something that isn’t transparent/explained to them? Assuming someone is dense enough to accept something (too harsh?) to accept something they don’t even moderately understand, all one would be accepting is a warped version of WAR. I can see the argument that they may become more receptive to sabrmetrics, but I don’t think that is the case here because the metrics arent being explained. Most people shy away from things they don’t understand and those who do accept it – again, WAR is a sexy all-in-one metric – are going to misuse it.

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by JD Sussman on Aug 2, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I always get worried about people misusing a stat and then becoming forever turned off

And that’s why the whole “WAR in broadcast” thing interests and concerns me. Now, you’re going to get all of these casual fans that are going to try to grasp WAR, but won’t do it properly because nobody ever properly conveyed it to them.

Then, they’ll go and try to utilize the stat, but they’ll come to incorrect conclusions due to their warped understanding, and then upon analyzing those conclusions, they’ll determine that the statistics (and sabermetrics as a whole) ultimately aren’t worth their time.

For example, if your understanding of WAR is cut and dry- more WAR equals better player, and that’s it- and then you see that Howie Kendrick (.300-8-36) has significantly more WAR than Miguel Cabrera (.311-22-68), you’d come to some awfully odd conclusions (like, that Kendrick is better than Cabrera) because you’re not aware of short-term flaws like the volatility of fielding metrics and you haven’t been taught that WAR only describes the past, and doesn’t say who’s actually better in the present, only who’s been better in the past.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Aug 2, 2011 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions

by Satchel Price on Aug 2, 2011 11:16 PM EDT reply actions

I disagree

I don’t believe full understanding is necessary for proliferation to the masses. Yes, without proper education, people will misuse statistics, but I’d rather they misuse better statistics.

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Fake Teams

by Robert L. Bishop on Aug 3, 2011 11:57 AM EDT reply actions