Examining the Deliberate Pace of the Yanks and Red Sox

by J-Doug on Aug 19, 2011 10:00 AM EDT in Research

In my last post, I presented to you a model that attempts to explain the variance in game duration and pace. Before that, I presented the data showing that, as expected, the Yankees and Red Sox top the list of the league's slowest teams.

In a way, it makes sense that those two teams would perennially top the list of the slowest paced teams in baseball. Both teams score a lot, frequently reach the playoffs and play important games (which I found to take longer than trivial games), and--perhaps most importantly--play each other quite a bit.

But if the Yanks and Sox simply played a slower game because they produce more, then my models should predict game duration and pace as well for those two teams as it does for all the others. As it turns out, this is not the case.

Even when you control for variables included in my models, Yankees games are still 8:30 (8 min. 30 sec.) longer than they "should" be, Red Sox games 6:00 longer, while Cubs and As matches are about six minutes shorter than expected. These are the numbers that the residual chart plots above (click to embiggen for optimal cromulence).

So why the discrepancy? Hard to say, really.

Surely the Red Sox and Yankees play more games on national television, and thus take longer commercial breaks, than most teams. Adding an extra ad to every half-inning break should extend the typical contest by about nine minutes. However, this shouldn't account for more than about 15% of the regular season (and could account for at most ~30%).

*Model #4 Duration and Pace Residuals (Actual - Expected)**

Team	Time (Min)	Pace (MCP)	Team	Time (Min)	Pace (MCP)

AL East			NL East
BAL	+3.02	+1.01	ATL	-0.25	-0.13
BOS	+6.20	+1.79	FLA	-2.08	-0.64
NYY	+8.50	+2.54	NYM	+1.37	0.65
TBR	+5.33	+1.76	PHI	-3.23	-0.96
TOR	-1.46	-0.48	WSN	+2.87	+1.02

AL Central			NL Central
CHW	-3.51	-1.26	CHC	-6.08	-1.96
CLE	-0.03	-0.10	CIN	-0.30	+0.03
DET	-2.20	-0.74	HOU	-2.69	-0.79
KCR	-2.76	-0.93	MIL	+3.33	+1.11
MIN	-1.45	-0.14	PIT	+0.93	+0.44
			STL	-1.89	-0.68

AL West			NL West
LAA	-0.59	-0.25	ARI	+1.16	+0.20
OAK	-5.40	-2.05	COL	+2.19	+0.76
SEA	-3.36	-1.24	LAD	+3.84	+1.37
TEX	+0.84	+0.25	SDP	+0.52	+0.17
			SFG	-2.99	-0.85

*Models applied are pace model #4 and duration model #4 from the post cited above.

Most likely, I'm omitting an important variable (or several). Moreover, it's possible there are some interactions and non-linear relationships I'm unaware of. But it is also possible that this is a team quality; thanks to Lucas, we believe it's also a pitcher quality.

So I'm putting this out there for you all: why are the Yanks and Sox taking longer than everyone else?

Data from BaseballReference.com

Poll

How do you feel about baseball games that last longer than three hours?

Too long for me

24 votes

Fine for extra innings, but not regulation contests

117 votes

Fine for day and evening games, but not at night

13 votes

Fine by me, more baseball is good baseball

75 votes

229 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

The Yankees and Red Sox are first and second in runs scored in MLB, respectively.

The Red Sox are first in OBP, Yankees second in MLB.

And in pitches per plate appearances, five Yankees and Red Sox are in the top 10 in the AL.

So, they take a ton of pitches and score more runs. Of course their games will last longer.

Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.

I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy

You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr

by Frank Campagnola on Aug 19, 2011 7:44 PM EDT reply actions

I'm going to assume you haven't actually read this piece because it doesn't seem like you have.

But the Yankees and Red Sox play longer games even when controlling for total number of pitches thrown and runs scored. That’s the entire point of this article.

“Even when you control for variables included in my models, Yankees games are still 8:30 (8 min. 30 sec.) longer than they “should” be, Red Sox games 6:00 longer, while Cubs and As matches are about six minutes shorter than expected. These are the numbers that the residual chart plots above."

The question is why don’t offensive production and total pitches explain ALL of the Yankees and Red Sox departure from the norm.

Really, if you’re not going to take the brief time and effort to actually read the main point of a very short blog post, why would you even bother commenting on it?

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Aug 20, 2011 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions

I usually just read the first and last line of every post before I comment on it/ answer the question

At least that’s what they told me to do on the SATs

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton

by LaserVortex888 on Aug 20, 2011 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Wow, unpleasant much?

And I read your piece. You never specified on anything. All you said was they score a lot, and I added to that for you by adding pitches per plate appearance and team OBP. Both of those are factors that you didn’t include that could help explain some things.

Seriously, relax.

Either way, you asked:

So I’m putting this out there for you all: why are the Yanks and Sox taking longer than everyone else?

I answered:

The Yankees and Red Sox are first and second in runs scored in MLB, respectively.

The Red Sox are first in OBP, Yankees second in MLB.

And in pitches per plate appearances, five Yankees and Red Sox are in the top 10 in the AL.

So, they take a ton of pitches and score more runs. Of course their games will last longer.

Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.

I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy

You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr

by Frank Campagnola on Aug 20, 2011 3:19 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm very pleasant to people who respond to things that I wrote. I'm very unpleasant to people who respond without reading.

You must have missed this:

“But if the Yanks and Sox simply played a slower game because they produce more, then my models should predict game duration and pace as well for those two teams as it does for all the others. As it turns out, this is not the case.”

That right there says I already took production into account. You did not consider this when you posted your comments.

That said, I was a bit angrier than I probably should have been, so I apologies for my general tone (and for failing to recognize that things always read worse when coming off the Internet). Thanks for your consideration of my piece in the first place.

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Aug 23, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

What I meant was that in the article you didnt’t specify on what production. As far as I know, you only said “produce” or “both teams score a lot.”

Just tried to add to the discussion, add things that maybe weren’t taken into account.

Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.

I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy

You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr

by Frank Campagnola on Aug 23, 2011 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

And the Yankees don’t play that many nationally televised games due to YES and My9, so I’m not so sure that could be the case.

Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.

I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy

You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr

by Frank Campagnola on Aug 19, 2011 7:48 PM EDT reply actions

The Yankees appear on FOX/ESPN nationally more than any team not named the Red Sox.

There are no games on YES/My9 in October.

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Aug 20, 2011 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Didn’t realize you were accounting for the postseason. And with all the YES games and My9, those left over shouldn’t impact game length THAT much.

Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.

I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy

You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr

by Frank Campagnola on Aug 20, 2011 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Right

It should at most account for ~15% of the games, like I wrote.

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Aug 23, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions

This is just a poor comment

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton

by LaserVortex888 on Aug 20, 2011 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions

YES and My9 aren’t national. A few nationally televised games shouldn’t add a world of difference when factoring in 162 games.

Your response is a poor comment.

Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.

I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy

You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr

by Frank Campagnola on Aug 20, 2011 3:22 AM EDT up reply actions

October games...

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton

by LaserVortex888 on Aug 21, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

You can’t compare regular season and October. Only 8 of 30 teams get there.

In that case, you’d have to compare Yankees and Red Sox playoff games to other playoff games not featuring the Yankees or Red Sox.

Otherwise what are we comparing? Yankees games in October to Nationals games in June? What sense would that make?

Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.

I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy

You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr

by Frank Campagnola on Aug 22, 2011 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions

did you read the first article?

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton

by LaserVortex888 on Aug 22, 2011 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, talks about how crucial games are slower.

But then we’re still talking about totally different things.

Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.

I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy

You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr

by Frank Campagnola on Aug 23, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

In yankee stadium

we have to account for the roll call slowing down the game in the top of the first:

7 position players. Maybe it adds 15 extra seconds to the game (hey it’s a start).

Also, on Yes/My9 for home games, the Yanks do not cut to commercial for the singing of God Bless America. Afterwords, they go to a full commercial. I figure that adds about a minute, no?

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton

by LaserVortex888 on Aug 20, 2011 1:35 AM EDT reply actions

Not at all. If you’ve ever been to a Yankee game, you’d know that the game doesn’t stop or slow for roll call at all.

You may be on to something about GBA though.

Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.

I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy

You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr

by Frank Campagnola on Aug 20, 2011 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions

I have been to dozens of Yankees games

and it was just a joke (that’s why I said 15 seconds)

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton

by LaserVortex888 on Aug 20, 2011 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, GBA probably does add at least 90 seconds to the game.

The Yanks aren’t the only team to do GBA, but I think they’re one of the few remaining to play GBA at every single game.

And I think LV was joking.

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Aug 23, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

who cares

sounds like yankee hate to me

the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox

2012: get ready for White Pomz!

by papality on Aug 22, 2011 2:20 PM EDT reply actions

this is a website for baseball analysis

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton

by LaserVortex888 on Aug 22, 2011 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions

no shit

but what this post is implying is that there’s some sort of weird conspiracy keeping yankees and red sox games longer, when we already know precisely why: