What Defines a MVP?
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 17, 2011 11:24 AM EDT
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PrintI love this discussion coming in from the fanposts. What do you think? -jbopp
What defines a MVP?
Batting average, on-base%, slugging%, HRs, RBIs, SB, runs, etc?
WAR, wRC+, wOBA, etc?
Fielding percentage, errors, assists, putouts?
Advanced fielding and base-running metrics?
Is your team a playoff contender?
Big market/ small market?
The problem is no one seems to agree. Fans disagree with voters and voters disagree with fans. I'm curious to hear what the statistically inclined community has to say about this. So let's discuss what makes a player the most valuable to his team and which two players currently should be the front runners for the AL and NL MVP races.
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Most VALUABLE Player
Regular Guy: MVP is the one player that means the most to his team, where his absence would most hurt the team.
Saber Guy: MVP is the player that provides the most return (runs, wins) at the lowest cost, relative to his team’s place on the win spectrum.
MVP Voters: DEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRIICCCCCCKCKKKK JEEEEEEETTTTTEERRRRRR!!!!!
Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp
by Justin Bopp on Aug 17, 2011 11:14 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
couldnt agree more
Who would you choose as your AL and NL MVP?
Im going with Derek Jeter Joey Bats and Matt Kemp
Don't you stick that knife in your leg...
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 17, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
First, thanks for posting this fanshot. We love when you guys jump in and participate.
Second, I’ll listen to arguments about Kemp and Bautista. Probably convincing.
Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp
by Justin Bopp on Aug 17, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Third: What do you think is most important? I mean, which one do you fall under? I’m halfway between regular and saber guy. I need some serious statistical evidence with a dose of “what would actually happen to the team if he was gone?” — which WAR doesn’t seem to completely capture.
Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp
by Justin Bopp on Aug 17, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
this site is awesome
I’ve been reading this website for almost a year and I couldn’t wait any longer to sign up and speak out a bit. As you can imagine most of my friends enjoy sports to the level of barstoolsports and that’s just about it. I can never get enough of in-depth sabermetrics.
Back on topic, similarly, I think I fall half and half between regular and saber guy. It’s such a huge mistake to look at just BA, RBIs, and playoff contender, but the same can be said about just looking at WAR. Taking everything into perspective is key. Just looking at who has the highest percentage of the team’s fWAR, Kemp is 38% and man in white Bautista is 36%. However, you cannot solely base your decision on just that. I think you have to look at what the Dodgers and Blue Jays would look like if they didn’t have those guys in the middle of their lineup. Needless to say, I don’t think it would look very good for either team.
Don't you stick that knife in your leg...
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 17, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow thanks man, this is some fantastic praise.
We definitely want to hear more from you so don’t hesitate to comment more often.
Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp
by Justin Bopp on Aug 17, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
The Jeter mention is funny considering he's never won an MVP
How about RYAN HOWARD!!!! or RBI@!@@@@!!@@!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
in the seasons he legitimately should have won he didn't
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
2012: get ready for White Pomz!
I just tend to think of the MVP as the most productive player in the game
I don’t consider salary, although win spectrum does tend to be a bit of a tie-breaker; if one guy isn’t blowing the other guy away, I’ll generally choose the player that plays for the better team.
But I don’t think that you should dock a guy’s MVP status simply because he’s got experience and makes more money because of it. Otherwise, practically every MVP would be a 1-6 service time guy.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
agreed
I like to use playoff contended/ better team as my tiebreaker.
Don't you stick that knife in your leg...
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 17, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I kinda like the "does he make others around him better" argument
which makes most of us saber guys’ eyes start twitching.
Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp
by Justin Bopp on Aug 17, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm always careful of using that kind of argument
I’m not sure how much better players can make one another in baseball. Basketball or football, sure, it’s totally different, but I don’t tend to believe that one hitter can make everyone around him better.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Aug 17, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
maybe not everyone but....
In 1961 Roger Maris hit a then major league record 61 homeruns [yes everyone already knows that] but did not get intentionally walked once
why…
because Mickey Mantle batted behind him
Maris narrowly beat out Mantle for the AL MVP that year
One could argue that Mantle was in fact more valuable…
Don't you stick that knife in your leg...
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 17, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Mantle was more valuable
Mantle hit for more overall power, a better average, walked more and played a harder defensive position. Maris only won that award because of the homers.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Aug 17, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe a little.
But when I think about a basketball player making others better, I can actually picture ways in which that could happen. I can’t picture many scenarios in which one baseball player would appear to make another one better.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Aug 17, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I can!
Otherwise, why do we attempt to remove defense from pitching metrics? ;)
Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp
I mean, aren't we talking about hitters?
Pitching and defense intersect, sure, but when does the hitting of one guy intersect with the hitting of another?
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Aug 17, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
true but
looking at just position players, each at bat is generally independent of each other
Don't you stick that knife in your leg...
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 17, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
haha
you beat me to it
Don't you stick that knife in your leg...
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 17, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Right. Lineups and the 'protection' thing have been generally debunked.
I’m just saying that we’re not just talking about batting ability.
Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp
right
except batting ability is like 75% +/- of what goes into picking an MVP
Don't you stick that knife in your leg...
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 17, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
True
But batting ability is the biggest component of most MVP candidates. I’m sure that, somehow, having two premium defenders like Pedroia and Gonzalez in the same infield has some effect on their UZR numbers.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Aug 17, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
In that case Bautista wins in a landslide...
Its been widely reported that he helped Yunel Escobar regain focus and play at an elite status.
Not to mention he’s the best offensive player this year.
I prefer a player who had great stats on a playoff team (or near playoff team). I thought it was silly when A-Rod was MVP on a last place Rangers team. Even though one player does not make a baseball team, the MVP should be on a team that was relevant.
I also like to look at the best player on a surprising team. This can get a bit subjective, though, as different people have different preseason expectations. My NL pick this year is Upton, mainly because few people thought AZ would be good.
I like to look at a variety of factors, both statistical (WAR, etc) and subjective.
Upton is my sleeper pick
If Upton continues to produce at such a high level and the Dbacks make it into the playoffs, I think it would be tough to argue that another playoff contender has a more valuable player than the younger Upton.
Don't you stick that knife in your leg...
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 17, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey hey
I wrote about Upton as a 2011 MVP candidate two weeks ago: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/8/3/2340678/justin-upton-has-arrived
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Aug 17, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I know I know I read it
present MVP…very close
Don't you stick that knife in your leg...
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 17, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd take Upton.
He leads the NL in WAR, and his main competition (Kemp, Tulo) comes from players on non-contenders.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Aug 17, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Braun isn't a strong contender?
He seems at least as good a choice as Kemp, especially if you give a bump for playing for a good team.
expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat
Fielder is a stud too
Upton and Kemp are way more valuable to the DBacks and Dodgers, respectively, than Braun is to the Brewers because they would still have Prince to mash.
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 21, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, for one, I expect Braun and Fielder to split their vote somewhat
But mostly, I take Upton because he’s a plus defensive right fielder while Braun is a poor defensive left fielder.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Aug 22, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
don't RF and LF recieve the same positional adjustment?
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
2012: get ready for White Pomz!
Yeah, but LF is generally considered easier
Right fielders tend to have their throwing arms tested more often, so if two fielders have similar range, the one with the better one ends up In right.
Upton is adding significantly more value through his defense.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Aug 23, 2011 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions
definitely
Upton is playing fantastic in right field this year
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 22, 2011 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, Upton never had to move to right field
He primarily moved off center field because of the presence of Chris Young.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Aug 23, 2011 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
what a defensive duo out there in AZ
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 23, 2011 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
What about pitchers
What are your thoughts on pitchers being included in the MVP race(s).
I say no; that’s why they have the Cy Young award [topic for another day’s discussion].
Unless a guy goes out and pitches every other day than maybe, but let’s keep the two awards separate for position players and pitchers.
Don't you stick that knife in your leg...
Pitchers have won MVP before
If they have a great season, why shouldn’t they win it? For instance, I think most would argue that Pedro Martinez should have won it in 1999 over Ivan Rodriguez.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
My thinking is that voters would be more receptive to naming pitchers as MVPs
if position players had an award that corresponded to the Cy Young (best overall position player). Then there’d be one award for each set, and the MVP could be the overall [whatever-you-think-of-as-MVP], but pitchers could be considered too.
Otherwise, it seems kind of obvious that a pitcher who wins MVP should probably also win the Cy Young. Unless you weight the playoff team criterion really heavily in MVP voting.
expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat
I tend to be a
wRC+, wOBA, oWAR, fWAR type guy now a days when it comes to MVP but I will say that I think the MVP should come from a team that at the very least contended for part of the season. The Jays never truly contended and that’s why I am not big on Joey Bats for MVP. But that’s just my personal opinion and I know not everyone shares it.
I do also think that pitchers get short changed in the MVP because of the Cy Young award. What they should do is have a Cy Young winner, a Babe Ruth winner (for best position player) and then an MVP that draws from pitchers and position players. It seems like the MVP at this point is the award for position players and I think that’s not really the way it was meant to be or the way it should be. But because pitchers have their own award they get screwed over by the BBWAA.
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"Are you out of your fucking mind? You think I'm just going to rape you on the off chance that hopefully you're into that shit?" - Louis CK
Nucks Misconduct's Prodigal Son, Chief Curmudgeon, and Chief Hunk.
by Section 312 on Aug 18, 2011 12:34 PM EDT reply actions
pitchers for mvp are always a tough sell and
I was reading an argument over at fangraphs the other day about whether or not the MVP should include pitchers. One person said that position players contribute everyday and pitchers contribute only once out of every five days. The opposing argument was that even though a pitcher only helps [or hurts] his team every 5 days, he makes a much bigger impact on the game that day.
WPA and WAR I assume are good ways to look at this, but does anyone else have any suggestions or comments?
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 18, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Look at a guy like Verlander
something like 14-3 when he pitches the day after a Tigers loss and he personally is responsible for more than 25% of his teams wins, even though wins isn’t the greatest stat to judge a pitcher obviously, and his WAR is pretty comparable to Bautista’s. If we are talking about a guy who is the most valuable to his team Verlander has to be right at or near the top of the list. But it is a tough sell when a guy is only on the field for 15-18% of the innings his team plays all year.
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"Are you out of your fucking mind? You think I'm just going to rape you on the off chance that hopefully you're into that shit?" - Louis CK
Nucks Misconduct's Prodigal Son, Chief Curmudgeon, and Chief Hunk.
by Section 312 on Aug 18, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I know but
keep in mind he has such a huge impact every 5th day he is out there, much more than any position player on the team. That’s why this is such a good argument; more innings @ lower impact vs less innings at high impact?
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 18, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
great pitchers don't just help on their starting days
the deeper they go, and the kinds of pitchers who would be in the discussion for MVP go deep, the more help they give their team’s bullpen, which can help in just as every day a fashion as the first baseman.
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
2012: get ready for White Pomz!
true but
impossible to quantify
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 18, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Impossible?
That’s a strong statement.
Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp
Correction: plausible, but difficult for sure
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 18, 2011 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
For me, starters get short-changed in the WAR category. It assumes that a replacement level pitcher would throw the same amount of innings, but that’s simply not the case.
Replacement level pitchers don’t throw complete game shutouts, or average over seven innings a start.
In all seriousness, a replacement level pitcher would probably give you five innings and three or four runs allowed, and would be more prone to getting smacked around.
In most cases, they’d give you 150 innings in a season.
A replacement level starter would never throw 250 innings like a Halladay, Sabathia, Verlander, or Felix. Guys like that get screwed over by WAR.
So we have guys like the above mentioned aces tossing around 75-100 innings more than a replacement level pitcher would, but their WAR doesn’t reflect that because they’re compared to a hypothetical replacement level pitcher that somehow throws 225+ innings.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy
You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr
by Frank Campagnola on Aug 19, 2011 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
WAR is not as good for pitchers as it is for position players
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 19, 2011 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s pretty much exactly what I was implying
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy
You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr
by Frank Campagnola on Aug 20, 2011 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I concur
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 20, 2011 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions
a Babe Ruth winner (for best position player)
That would be the Hank Arron Award
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
good call
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 19, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh, fans have a say in the Hank Aaron Award. They would need an award that doesn’t include fan perspective for it to mean something.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy
You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr
by Frank Campagnola on Aug 19, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
They selected Derek Jeter as the starting SS in the All Star game this year.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy
You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr
by Frank Campagnola on Aug 19, 2011 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Because he's Derek Jeter
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 19, 2011 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
The BBWAA put Jim Rice in the Hall of Fame
Meanwhile, Lou Whitaker managed only 2.9% of the vote and fell off the ballot in his first year (not enough RBI!!).
The managers and the coaches gave Rafael Palmeiro a Gold Glove for playing 28 games at first base (he did manage one fielding run above average).
Basically everyone’s decision-making is suspect, to say the least.
by YankeesRock on Aug 20, 2011 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
In my opinion, fans are way less informed, especially the ones that create multiple email addresses in order to get as many votes possible for their favorite players for a game that decides home field advantage in the world series.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy
You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr
by Frank Campagnola on Aug 20, 2011 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
nowadays
I don’t put too much stock into fan voting. I don’t think anybody does or should. We all know the All-Star game voting is ridiculous at times but you just have to accept it. Derek Jeter will get the votes because he is running against Asdrubal something (I forget his last name). Try to inform the 8+ million people just in NYC alone, it’s a losing argument.
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 20, 2011 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Except defense is completely unaccounted for
and the winner is determined by a formula that gives a certain value to various individual inputs
expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat
If everything was unanimous and agreed upon
what we even have to talk about
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 20, 2011 12:42 AM EDT reply actions
reply fail
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field? ~Jim Bouton
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 20, 2011 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
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