Players Aren't Seeing As Many Fastballs

by scottsabol on Aug 16, 2011 11:09 AM EDT

Interesting assertion from Scott here. What do you think? -jbopp

Are certain pitches become more common place in recent years?

Here are the number of players since over the last 10 seasons who were pitched 60% fastballs or more. Other pitches and their percentages follow.

Notice the number of players who saw 60% fastballs has seen a THREEFOLD DROP since 2006. Players who saw more than 15% of their pitches as sliders have steadily increased since 2004. Curveball percentages saw a drop then an increase the last 3 seasons while changeup percentages have stayed fairly steady throughout.

While the number of players who hit more than 50% of batted balls as groundballs has stayed steady, the number of players who have swung at more than 25% of pitches out of the strikezone has risen 500%!

The bottom line: Pitching overall is getting better. Batters are getting fooled more than they did just 5 years ago.

Tweet Comment 8 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Does "Fastballs" include cutters, sinkers, and the like?

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Aug 16, 2011 2:36 PM EDT reply actions

The bottom line: Pitching overall is getting better. Batters are getting fooled more than they did just 5 years ago.

There’s someone getting fooled here, but it isn’t batters.

by cwyers on Aug 17, 2011 3:02 PM EDT reply actions

I mean, look at your O-Swing numbers.

You say, “the number of players who have swung at more than 25% of pitches out of the strikezone has risen 500%!”

Okay, let’s look at BB and SO rates over that same period:

YEAR BB_PA SO_PA
2011 0.081 0.184
2010 0.085 0.185
2009 0.089 0.180
2008 0.087 0.175
2007 0.085 0.171
2006 0.084 0.168
2005 0.082 0.164
2004 0.086 0.169
2003 0.085 0.164
2002 0.087 0.168

You have to go out to three significant digits to see a change in walk rates at all. You see a .016 rise in strikeout rates.

If your data suggests to you that there’s been a 500% increase in swinging at pitches in the strike zone over this time period, then may I suggest to you that what you’ve found isn’t “interesting,” it’s bad analysis caused by bad data.

by cwyers on Aug 17, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

You're making the same mistake I made a while back, it seems

Basically, O-Swing% can’t really be compared from season-to-season.

What you’re noticing seems to be more of a product of a data collection.

I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score.

by Julian Levine on Aug 17, 2011 9:21 PM EDT reply actions

Which would make you wonder

whether O-Swing can really be compared from anything to anything.

by Mike Fast on Aug 17, 2011 9:31 PM EDT reply actions

O-Swing based upon BIS data, that is

We have a very good idea how accurate O-Swing based upon PITCHf/x data is, but at the current time you have to compute that yourself from the raw pitch data.

by Mike Fast on Aug 17, 2011 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Lots of good feedback here, Scott.

Keep at it!

Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Aug 17, 2011 10:28 PM EDT reply actions

Reply to O-swing %

Thanks for the feedback:

While my analysis is from more “counting the o-swing%” instances, I feel that it does show a trend of players getting “fooled” on bad pitches more than in years past NOT NECESSARILY resulting in a higher striking out rate.