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World Series Win Probability Added Leaders

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When I was working on the Hall of wWAR project a few months back, I felt a little guilty that postseason performance was not factored into the scores at all. After all, there's no "Postseason WAR", nor should there be. The postseason is different and the whole "replacement player" concept goes out the window.

It finally hit me to try cumulative postseason Win Probability Added (WPA) over the course of a player's career. The graph above shows the career leaders in World Series WPA (position players, pitchers are after the jump).

Star-divide

Here are the pitchers. You'll notice that seven pitchers have recorded at least 2.0 WPA over the course of their career while just one hitter has managed to. Pitching really does take over the playoffs, y'all!

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So, a few things of note:

  • I've only pulled World Series data so far. This data was a pain to pull, so I started with just the World Series. If we like it, I could look into the other rounds. But I'm wondering if they should be weighted differently. Think of it like Leverage Index. Shouldn't the World Series be worth more than the LDS?
  • Look at all the Yankees! Yes, there are quite a few Yankees. This does have to do with the Yankees being in a lot of World Series. But some of the all time lowest scores are also Yankees. The Yankees have been given more opportunities to succeed, which would bump their WPA up. They also have many opportunities to fail, which would drag it down. There are also opportunities to do both, which would keep it around zero. So these guys with high scores are consistently good, and that's good for something.
  • Babe Ruth ranks fifth all time among hitters—and fifteenth all time among pitchers. In fact, he has the highest single-game WPA for any pitcher in history. The dude was just good.
  • The highest WPA in a single World Series game for a position player was Kirk Gibson.
  • Jack Morris just missed appearing on the pitcher graphic. His WPA was 1.54. I hear he pitched a pretty good Game 7.
  • The man with the most World Series PAs (296), Yogi Berra, ranked in a tie for 25th with 0.85 WPA.
  • Holy Matsui! Godzilla owns a 1.213 OPS in two World Series. If you time those hits well, you can rack up some serious WPA.  Willie Aikens appeared in just one World Series, but posted a 1.638 OPS. Yikes.
  • Bloody socked Curt Shilling is tied for 31st all time (1.10 WPA) with Johnny Podres, Jim Palmer, and Bill Dinneen.
  • I like to think that I've heard of a lot of baseball players. But there were three players on the pitchers list I simply don't know about, including the top guy. Art Nehf (#1) earned 184 wins and 23.1 WAR between 1915 and 1929. In five World Series (four with the Giants), he had a 2.16 ERA in 79 innings (but just a 4-4 record to show for it). "Wild Bill" Hallahan (#19) won 102 games from 1925 to 1939 (14.0 WAR) in his career, but owns a 1.36 ERA in five World Series starts for the Cardinals. George Earnshaw (#T-11) pitched for the Philadelphia Athletics in the early 1930s, winning 127 games (17.6 WAR). In three World Series, he posted a 1.58 ERA in eight starts.
  • Mike Stanton FTWPA!

All data is from Baseball-Reference. If you'd like to take a look at the cumulative data, here's an Excel sheet.

Anything else jump out at you? For the readers who buy into the whole Hall of wWAR concept, is this something that could be used to quantify postseason value? If so, how would you weigh the World Series vs. the LCS or LDS?

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Love the integration of the baseball cards!

As far as the numbers, shouldn’t this be adjusted on a per plate appearance basis? If WPA is cumulative it definitely skews things in e Yankees favor. Yes, it also means Yankees can be low, but I think a rate approach would be interesting to see.

Columnist at Beyond the Box Score. Contributor at Amazin' Avenue.

by Bill Petti on Aug 12, 2011 8:19 AM EDT reply actions  

I've gone back and forth on this.

Open to suggestions. It’s certainly not your traditional cumulative stat, like hits (for example), where the more you play the more you add to it. If you hang on and play poorly, you cut into your WPA.

If you do it as a rate stat, you’ll see guys like Aikens skyrocket because they haven’t played enough to fail.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Aug 12, 2011 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think we all know...

… who the most glaring omission is.

Maybe if it was just WPA in November…

by jfranco77 on Aug 12, 2011 8:49 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, but...

Did you count the homer that Jeter hit off Byung-Hyun Kim after midnight of the game that started on Oct. 31 towards November WPA? ;) That’s really where the silly “Mr. November” nickname came from.

If so, I’d love to see Kim’s November WPA.

Left Field: Adventures in baseball fanaticism, music obsession, craft beer enthusiasm, and other stuff from out of left field.

by Dan McCloskey on Aug 12, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wrong way to do this.

I don’t think that WPA is the right (or at least most fun) way to go about this. Instead of calculating how much a player adds to the probability of winning a World Series game, we should be summing together how much that player contributes to winning the World Series. “World Series Probability Added” (WSPA) is what we really want.

by Joseph Meyer on Aug 12, 2011 1:31 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Yeah, Sky brought up something similar on Twitter...

Suggestions accepted. I’m no math guy, but I’ll make the darn thing pretty.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Aug 12, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was thinking that WSPA added would be cool too...

But, I don’t think WPA was the wrong way to do this. In fact, I think WPA makes more sense to look at than WSPA because you still have to win one game at a time. Plus, I’m assuming the data is readily available, and WSPA would involve an entirely new methodology.

Left Field: Adventures in baseball fanaticism, music obsession, craft beer enthusiasm, and other stuff from out of left field.

by Dan McCloskey on Aug 12, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Godzilla!

That is all.

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Aug 12, 2011 1:57 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Lou Brock?

Surprised to not see him near the top.

"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.

by RallyMonkey5 on Aug 12, 2011 2:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Brock has a very health 0.49 WPA

(tied for 90th… with Sean Casey!)

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Aug 12, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Looked it up in the excel sheet

Brock is 90th at +.49, with a 391/424/655 line in 87 AB. The bottom of the list is interesting as well. If people want to give a bonus (Tango Tiger suggest a weight of 5, so +2 WPA = 10 WAR) to HOF cases, then we should subtract from those who play worst in the series. Chick Hafey, Orlando Cepeda, Bernie Williams some prominant names at the bottom.

Somehow Steve Garvey is -.75 despite a 319/342/407 line.

Great work Adam.

"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.

by RallyMonkey5 on Aug 12, 2011 2:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Some bad ones...

Marv Owen -1.26 in 54 PA
Chick Hafey -1.17 in 92 PA
Tony Kubek -1.12 in 154 PA

Jim Gilliam -0.99 in 172 PA

Bernie Williams -0.85 in 141 PA

Bill Russell -0.79 in 103 PA

Jorge Posada -0.78 in 114 PA

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Aug 12, 2011 2:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Pitchers

Ed Summers -1.75 in 22 IP
Mitch Williams -1.28 in 2.2 IP (!!!)
Dennis Eckersley -1.11 in 4.2 IP
Byung-Hyun Kim -1.09 in 3.1 IP
Don Newcombe —0.99 in 22 IP

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Aug 12, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but...

What is Byung-Hyun Kim’s November WPA (counting that one post-midnight on Halloween Jeter at bat)? ;)

Left Field: Adventures in baseball fanaticism, music obsession, craft beer enthusiasm, and other stuff from out of left field.

by Dan McCloskey on Aug 12, 2011 2:55 PM EDT reply actions  

surprised whitey ford is so far down

not that 27th is really all that far down, but for a guy with such a reputation…

the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox

lets just use our 2012 money for something good and not another wigginton

by papality on Aug 13, 2011 4:45 AM EDT reply actions  

i was actually so surprised that i went and checked out some gamelogs, and...

in his 22(!) world series starts, 9 had negative WPA: 7 of them had WPA of -.200 or greater(fewer?), adding up to an amazing -1.896 WPA in 26 IP; 1 had -.102 in 7IP, and another had -.029 in 7 IP, giving him a grand total of -2.027 WPA/40 IP.

of course, ford’s positive WPA games total 3.156 in 106 IP, which would have him the leader by a wide margin.

the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox

lets just use our 2012 money for something good and not another wigginton

by papality on Aug 13, 2011 5:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

How about...

Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz?

People are always saying how much they choked in the WS, but I have never bought it – seemed more like offense and bullpen issues to me.

by STLCards2 on Aug 13, 2011 9:17 PM EDT reply actions  

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