Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 14

by Daniel Moroz on Jul 4, 2011 2:30 PM EDT in Power Rankings

The Indians have finally fallen out of the top half of the rankings, while the Mets moved above the jump.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Comments
1	Yankees	50	31	Over the last three years, Brett Gardner's +42 UZR/150 in left-field is, by far (~20 runs), the best of any player at any position.
2	Red Sox	48	34	Dustin Pedroia striking out more than he has before, but also walking a lot more (15.9%). Thus the .394 OPB with a .278 BA.
3	Phillies	53	31	Over the last two weeks, Halladay, Lee, and Hamels have given up a combined 14 runs - that's 2 fewer than COL allowed yesterday.
4	Rangers	44	40	CJ Wilson has been even better this year (3.38 xFIP) than last. Perhaps his success will help get Neftali Feliz out of the pen too.
5	Brewers	45	39	Yovani Gallardo started out the year having trouble punching out batters, but over the past month his K/9 is up to 9.0.
6	Cardinals	45	39	David Freese coming back has helped offset the loss of Pujols somewhat - he's hitting .381/.435/.429 since returning.
7	Braves	49	35	The Braves' pitching staff has taken over the top spot in the majors in FIP and xFIP, largely due to their outstanding bullpen.
8	Reds	42	42	At age 35, Ramon Hernandez is in the midst of a career year (.307/.365/.503) while sharing time behind the plate.
9	Rockies	41	42	Jorge de la Rosa hasn't pitched since the end of May, but he's still second on the team in pitching fWAR (1.4).
10	Rays	46	37	Evan Longoria's line (.245/.336/.474) is being kept down by his .247 BABIP, but he's been his usual awesome self otherwise.
11	Tigers	44	40	Phil Coke's transition to the rotation hasn't gone so well - he's 1-8 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.2 K/BB - so he's going back to the pen.
12	Mets	41	42	Over the last week, the Mets are hitting .332/.398/.491 as a team, led by Jose Reyes' .579/.669/.789 line.
13	Diamondbacks	45	39	It's a little surprising to see neither Daniel Hudson nor Ian Kennedy selected to the All-Star game. Both have been very good.
14	Blue Jays	40	44	How did the Jays lock Yunel Escobar (.289/.363/.440, 2.5 fWAR already) up for only $5 M a year for 2012-13?
15	Giants	48	36	Ryan Vogelsong's All-Star selection has drawn mixed reviews, but his 2.5 brWAR is above teammate Tim Lincecum's.

16	Indians	44	37	Grady Sizemore has been hitting for power like he did early in his career, but his walks are way down and his K's are way up.
17	White Sox	42	42	Former shortstop Sergio Santos has taken to closing quite well, picking up 18 saves in 20 chances with 11.9 strike-outs per nine.
18	Angels	43	41	Vernon Wells: .210/.241/.380 Juan Rivera: .243/.305/.360 And Rivera was just DFA's recently by Toronto.
19	Dodgers	37	47	Over the last month, Andre Ethier is second on the team in home runs... with 2. Kemp has 8, and 8 others have one each.
20	Athletics	37	47	Guillermo Moscoso has a 2.51 ERA for the A's, but his FIP is just 4.69 and his xFIP is even worse (5.28).
21	Nationals	42	42	Tom Gorzelanny (8.0 K/9) is the only Nat's starter this year with a strike-out rate above 6.3 per nine.
22	Mariners	40	43	Michael Pineda's FIP by month - April: 2.18, May: 3.07, June: 3.83. That last one is still pretty darn solid for a rookie though.
23	Royals	33	50	Felipe Paulino has done a nice job ever since coming over to KC from Colorado; 3.21 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 3.34 xFIP, mostly as a starter.
24	Pirates	42	41	After two months of low strike-out rates and low BABIPs for Charlie Morton, those stats both jumped in June (6.5 K/9, .372 BABIP).
25	Marlins	37	46	Anibal Sanchez has taken a step forward across the board, and has been one of the NL's best starters this year.
26	Orioles	35	45	Nick Markakis is hitting .405 over the last month, getting his season average up towards .300. OPS still only .734 though.
27	Astros	29	55	Houston is still the only major league team with fewer than 30 wins, and they've failed to get there with three straight losses.
28	Cubs	34	50	After coming to the NL with a bang, Matt Garza's strike-out rate has fall off quite a bit (11.9 K/9 in April, 7.3 K/9 since).
29	Padres	38	46	Playing first-base almost full-time, Brad Hawpe is not a defensive liability for the first time in his career (+2.8 UZR overall).
30	Twins	35	46	Scott Baker (3.15 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 3.42 xFIP) has been the team's top starter this year, whiffing batters at a career high rate.

Tweet Comment 12 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Royals, mets, Oakland, Seattle, LAD

Are not better than the Pirates. But hey your table looks pretty.

Twitter: @Filar

by phyler on Jul 4, 2011 7:29 PM EDT reply actions

I'd take seattle over pitt in a heartbeat

And they would sweep them too. go back to your NL trash

by Rochestie4ever on Jul 4, 2011 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions

pirates suck!

by Rochestie4ever on Jul 4, 2011 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Mets have had MLB's fourth toughest schedule by opponent W%

Pirates, the 25th toughest.

by psiogen on Jul 4, 2011 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

+1

Columnist at Beyond the Box Score. Contributor at Amazin' Avenue.

by Bill Petti on Jul 4, 2011 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions

In 100 games, the Royals would take the edge over the Pirates.

That’s IMO, of course.

Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Jul 5, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions

At the time of the rankings

The Pirates were still being outscored, had one of the major’s worst offenses (.298 wOBA), and a pitching staff that didn’t seem as good as it’s ERA (3.49, but 4.07 FIP, 4.03 xFIP). And they play in the NL.

Orioles blogging at Camden Crazies | Follow on Twitter at @CamdenCrazies

by Daniel Moroz on Jul 5, 2011 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I just keep waiting for the Twins to get themselves out of the basement on this list.

But not so out-of-the-basement that they don’t sell off spare parts in the next few weeks.

by Jesse on Jul 5, 2011 6:58 AM EDT reply actions

I'd enjoy seeing the weightings

Just from the standpoint of knowing how clumped the distribution is after the Red Sox, and how heavily you are weighting your gut.

by goyo70 on Jul 5, 2011 8:40 AM EDT reply actions

The gut thing

Is not terribly relevant. Maybe teams move a spot or two (maybe to account for league disparity or the like).

The Phillies aren’t too far from the Red Sox, then there’s a larger gap, and pretty close clustering thereafter (from one team to the next), through the Dodgers. Small gap to the A’s, and a relatively slow decline to the Twins.

Orioles blogging at Camden Crazies | Follow on Twitter at @CamdenCrazies

by Daniel Moroz on Jul 5, 2011 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm beginning to doubt your judgement, especially of the lower tier teams, Daniel.

What struck me was your comment about Brad Hawpe’s defense with the Padres. Did you know Hawpe last played first base on June 8? He was replaced the next day by Anthony Rizzo, one of the prospects Boston gave up in the Adrian Gonzalez trade. Hawpe then played seven games in right field, was put on the DL on June 19th, and hasn’t played since. Rizzo is the Padres fulltime first baseman now.

I suspect you’re not keeping up with the non-top-ten teams, and that in turn makes me wonder if your gut needs to get out more and look at what’s happening to all the teams. San Diego has won 9 of its last 12 (including 2 over Boston, 2 over Atlanta and one, so far, from the Giants), Pittsburgh by run differential and record is a middle of the pack team, not 24th, and Houston by record and run diff is obviously the #30 team, not the Twins.

I track other power polls and your placement of the teams in the lower half of the rankings is nowhere near the consensus. You really need to take a closer look at those teams.

by wegotballsley on Jul 5, 2011 10:01 PM EDT reply actions

See above

On the “gut” thing.

I don’t actually keep up with any team (other than the O’s) on a day-to-day basis. Sometime that results in missing things (like Hawpe going on the DL), but that happens when trying to come up with something new each week. Thanks very much for the info.

Record has little bearing on the ranking (and recent record doubly so), and run differential is just a piece of it. See above on the Pirates as well.

All teams get treated equally by the stats, and the rankings reflect them closely.

Orioles blogging at Camden Crazies | Follow on Twitter at @CamdenCrazies

by Daniel Moroz on Jul 5, 2011 10:17 PM EDT reply actions